We had a bit of rain yesterday however at this point it looks like we’ll end up about 1.6” behind for the month and about 1” behind for the year. The snowpack is still a problem with no relief in sight. So no rain this weekend or next, just a light shower on Wednesday.
WVYC is doing some innovative things for Southern Straits, especially with the ORC Scoring based on actual windspeeds. They are also to be saluted for having the stones to correct faulty PHRF-NW ratings. At least someone is doing something to try and help PHRF-NW and they can get it done in a fraction of the time.
Conditions will be relatively mild over the weekend. There will be some strong onshore flow down the Strait of JdF after that pesky low we’ve had off the coast drifts south and joins a slightly stronger system that will bring more valley rain and mountain snow to California.
The upper-level charts still have the jet stream coming ashore south of San Francisco and that will keep temps in the Salish Sea a little cool, which is fine as that will help preserve what snowpack we have.
March 29 PacificMarch 29 PNW
Breezes over the central and south Sound will remain light over the weekend except for some spillover from the Straits that will occur Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning. The Strait of Georgia will see some NW breeze Saturday afternoon and that will fill into the north part of the San Juan Islands before easing on Sunday.
Especially this time of the year it’s always a good idea to check the actual windspeeds before you head out and keep a log of those so you can spot potential issues before you leave the dock.
As with any transitional weather situation, the models do not agree on when the transition will occur. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give us a nice overview of the current conditions with a weak low-pressure system off the Oregon coast meandering slowly around with a weak frontal system right along the coast. When the front finally passes, a stronger onshore flow will come down the Straits and into the Sound. Models do agree that this will probably occur sometime between late morning and mid-afternoon tomorrow. At least it will be cool with occasional light rain. Luckily, tides will not be much of an issue.
Rain and snowpack continue to be a problem that will probably continue into the late spring and early summer. So far this month we have only had 1.17” which is 1.73” below normal and for the year we are 1.12” below normal. Even with more systems headed our way this week they will be weak and will not do much to increase rainfall totals.
The surface forecast chart for Saturday shows quite a gap in the pressure gradients over the Salish Sea. The weak low off the coast will meander off to the SE allowing a weak ridge of high pressure to develop over the area. This will keep a weak northerly flow over the area through Sunday.
For tomorrow, the question will be which course to send us on. If they send us on the long course to TTP the TP-52’s will be around in about 6 hours with a zone of light air lasting about 1 to 3 hours after a start in 6-9 knts of SE. The J-35’s will be around the course in 7.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 8.5 hours.
When the northerly fills down the Sound it will of course be light to start and then build to 10-15 by mid-afternoon, with one model showing 15-20 knts. This will last until about mid-evening before it starts to ease.
If they send us on the shorter/More sensible mrse, the TP-52’s will take about 3.5 hours, the J-35’s and 105’s about 4.5 hours, and the J-30’s about 5.1 hours. Considering that going south means sailing away from the filling northerly and that means more time in the transition zone on a day with cooler temps and rain, I know which course I would choose. Nothing wrong with getting back to the Club early to swap sea stories.
The preliminary view of South Straits Race looks like it won’t be a barn burner with winds probably averaging 10 knots or less. Not all bad!
Have a great weekend and try to stay dry and warm tomorrow.
It’s that feast or famine time of the year for sailboat racing in Putrid Sound. Way too much wind last weekend and not nearly enough this weekend, well at least on Saturday.
The good news is that it is going to be probably the nicest weekend so far this year with the high temp near 70F on both days. The price we’ll pay for this spring break will be light, as in very light, breeze on Saturday with a reasonable southerly filling in on Sunday.
Today’s sat pic, and surface analysis chart show a clear area over the Salish Sea with an impressive low offshore and high pressure inland. This will result in an offshore breeze today however as a ridge builds over the area on Saturday, the pressure gradient will diminish and we’ll be left with light air. This ridge will continue to deflect storms to the north as the jet stream moves way north and comes ashore in BC. We will also have an upper-level high-pressure system centered over the area which will keep temps on the mild side.
We will continue to have a relatively mild week with the next chance of rain occurring towards the end of the week. Even then it won’t amount to much in the old rain gauge.
Let’s just call it 50 knots of breeze. Anecdotally, reports came in of 50 knots of windspeed. Some said 48. On the water it seemed every bit of 50.
The Possession Point Race, the second of CYC’s Center Sound Series, was sailed Saturday in Puget Sound. Nearly half the fleet opted to stay at the dock, many having read Bruce’s forecast. The call was for breeze, but even Bruce couldn’t foresee the 50-knot blast that caused carnage for the later finishers.
The race started predictably enough. Boats were able to set spinnakers and hold them for most, if not all, of the run to Possession Point. The east lane paid off, and it was a fairly orderly rounding as boats turned up into the teeth of the southerly, which by then was steadily blowing in the 20+ knot range. The larger, faster boats charged upwind on a flood current and into some big seas. Many boats played the east shore until they saw those hitting the Bainbridge side gaining.
The following photos were taken at the start by Jan Anderson. See the rest here.
Mystic AceIt was crowded at the boat for PHRF 5.
Crews on the rails could see the squalls coming. It was clear there was going to be a dousing. Indeed it came, along with a bit of hail. There was the expected gusts to start with, but then it became clear something had upset Mother Nature. She packed the squalls with 30, 40 and ultimately 50-knots gusts. By the time the worst of it hit, the fastest of the boats had finished. There was a distinct line of demarcation when the biggest wind hit – boats behind that line were scattered with ripped sails, crews on the foredeck holding downed headsails while hoping it would soon be over. Some boats were trying to motor under bare poles. Some limped the finish after the worst of it passed. And the J/109 Eclipse broke her mast.
These photos were taken by Adam Yurret from the race committee boat at the finish. Thanks, Adam! More here.
Al Hughes skippered the lone J/105 on the course.One Life finished with one sail.Aurora’s rail stacked.Carnage.
There were no reports of serious personal injuries, though just about everybody went home sore and cold and wet. Foul weather gear can only do so much.
Aboard Derek DeCouteau’s 1971 Ranger 33 Aurora, we had an excellent helmsman and afterguard, a new-to-the boat #3 and lots of rail meat. It was a good day.
As always – if you have some stories or photos from the race you’d like to share, send ’em.
Hard as it may be to believe, we will have wind once again for the weekend and for the upcoming week as several systems will march right on through the Pacific NW. Also interesting is that all five models are pretty much in agreement. The differences are about how much wind we’ll have and when the cold front will pass over us tomorrow. We are still about .5” of rain behind for the month however tomorrow and this week could change that and help the snowpack in our mountains which is still behind. Dress warmly and stay dry.
Today’s surface analysis charts show an unrelenting group of lows with attached frontal systems off our coast and headed our way. California will still get most of the rain and snow however we will begin to get close to our seasonal norm which is all good, unless you live in California. The Pacific High, because it remains weak, has been pushed off to the south while the slightly stronger High east of the Cascades will push systems into BC and SE Alaska. The Upper-Level charts show a meridional flow off the coast for today with the jet stream coming ashore mid-Oregon. As the week goes on, this flow will become more zonal with the jet stream drifting to the south and coming ashore mid-California. This will keep temps cool in the PacNW and help preserve what snowpack we have.
The consistent feature in the Surface charts is the bunching of isobars over the Pacific NW and this pressure gradient won’t ease until Wednesday. That’s why we can expect 12-25 knots of SSE for the start tomorrow and that will build to 20-30 knots midday with higher gusts. The question is when will the cold front go through because that is when the breeze will start to clock from SSE to SSW to SW. By late afternoon the gradient should start to ease, however I think the fleet will have finished by then.
Tides should not be an issue as slack at Scatchet Head should be around 1100 hrs however with the consistent southerly flow over the Sound and freshwater coming out of the Snohomish River, flowing out of Possession Sound, and across Scatchet Head, the ebb at Scatchet Head may last another 45-60 minutes. Remember also that the current and wind will build as you approach the mark so figure that into your rounding strategy.
March 8 Satellite PicMarch 8 PNW Satellite Pic
After the mark, if the ebb is still flowing at the mark it will pay to hold port tack to get south and away from the ebb before you tack to starboard. This will get you towards the Edmonds shore and the remainder of the ebb flowing south towards the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The water will also be flatter along that shore. Remember also how shallow it gets from Edwards Point to the oil docks.
The question with frontal passage and the start of the flood tide is whether it would be worthwhile to hold port tack at the mark and go across to the west side of the Sound. The flood does start first on that shore, however I think everyone will be around the mark and well on the way to the finish before the flood gets that far south. So, it would be extra miles to sail to get over there and if the wind doesn’t come around to the SW until later, it could be painful coming back across the Sound from Jeff Head. Something to watch.
As you get beat south of Richmond Beach you will want to watch if boats that hold out to the west start gaining as the breeze starts to clock from the S to the SSW and the SW. Plan your approach to the finish accordingly. This may change depending upon how close the committee boat is to Meadow Point because there could still be southeasterly, port tack lifts along the shore north of Meadow Point.
I have the TP-52’s around in three hours. The J-105’s and J-35’s in 4.25 hours and the J-30 around in 4.75 hrs.
So for tomorrow, safety first, life jackets and safety harnesses before you leave the dock, and maybe a discussion about your person overboard procedures.
Have a safe, fun, and fast race. Also, don’t forget to Spring Forward Saturday night. 😊
What a way to start Center Sound Series! At least the models are pretty much in agreement, we’re going to have wind and rain mixed with snow. Much better than drifting in the rain and cold.
For the month, we are only about .2” below normal rainfall; for the year, we are .35” above normal. It appears that this trend will continue into the rest of the month and with the jet stream remaining well to the south, our snowpack should remain intact. Then there’s the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada which could gain 10’+ feet just this weekend. Plus, if you look at the sea surface temp anomaly chart you should note the very high anomaly off the West Coast of Africa which is where hurricanes are born. The temps in this area are much higher than normal and could indicate an early start to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic. It should also be noted that the same is true of the area off the Pacific Coast of Panama and Central America where Pacific hurricanes are formed. The good news for Hawaii is that band of cooler than normal water just to the east of the Islands. This was in place last summer and served to break up approaching hurricanes. This is going to be a very interesting summer, but let’s not look too far ahead.
Our active winter is going to continue and that is going to make for a quick but cold Blakely Rock Race. We have a large trough of low-pressure over the area with four low-pressure systems just offshore roughly aimed our way. This will keep a southerly flow over the area all weekend, especially over the race course on Saturday. The day will start with 10-12knts of southerly that will build over the day and could reach 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon, especially in the north part of the race course and waters from Kingston north to the San Juan Islands. By late afternoon a stronger onshore flow will come down the Strait of JdF bringing gale force westerlies to the eastern part of the Straits.
NW Sat PicSST Anomoly Chart
Tidal current will not be much of an issue on Saturday and with the amount of rain we’ve had this week combined with a predominately southerly wind flow, expect a wind-driven surface current to be flowing to the north all day on Saturday, especially near West Point. Look for the muddy-colored water which will mark the outflow from the Duwamish as it bends around West Point. Current will be slightly stronger near West Point but ease as you go across the Sound.
Tactics should be fairly straightforward with the usual local geographic effects. The start/finish line will probably be slightly offshore from Shilshole to the south west from Meadow Point. You’d like a clear air start with a clear lane to hold starboard tack off the start line heading toward the breakwater. You should be headed as you get closer to the breakwater, just don’t sail out of the breeze. Once you tack to port there will be lifting puffs as you work towards West Point. If you get headed and find yourself in a strong ebb, tack back into the beach so that when you tack back to port you are close to West Point. Once you pass WP, hold port tack to get across the Sound. As you go across the Sound there should be a slight header as you get to the west side of the Sound. When you tack to starboard there should be lifting puffs on starboard as you work your way south to the Rock.
If there were starboard tack lifting puffs prepare for a port pole set at the Rock and carry that to just north of Winslow where you should get a slight lift that will allow you to gybe and probably be aimed pretty close to the top mark which remember is 1.5 miles to the east of the VTS Buoy. As you’re sailing north check the finish line to see if there’s a favored end.
Remember that the wind will probably build as you are running to the north and if you carried the #1 to the Rock you may want to consider a change to the #3 well in advance of rounding. Once you start on the wind it will pay to hold starboard and get close to the east side of the Sound before tacking as there should be port tack lifting puffs along that shore and you will be in smoother water.
The approach to the finish could be interesting if they position the finish well away from the shore. This could mean the line is in more of a SW breeze. Watch the boats ahead to see if there is a favored tack to the finish.
The TP-52s should be around the course in about 3.5 hours. The J-35s and J-105s should take about 4.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 4.9 hours.
Have a safe and great race and remember that the wind chill will be around freezing. Don’t let anyone get cold. Lifejackets on everyone and if there’s any question, clip into the jacklines.
If this relatively nice weather has you thinking about getting out on the water and maybe having a practice day before the start of Center Sound next weekend, Saturday will be the day. If, on the other hand, you want a heavy weather practice day, Sunday will work. Then it will return to rain, wind, and coolish temps for all of next week.
The charts for today and tomorrow show an interesting layout for the weather this weekend with weak low-pressure systems to the north and south of us. Offshore, the Pacific High remains unusually stable at 1038MB at 42N 152W with weaker high-pressure on the east side of the Cascades. Today’s sat pic shows the stronger low-pressure system with its front as the classic comma shape off the central California Coast. The higher resolution sat pic shows very little cloud cover over the Salish Sea and that will hold for tomorrow.
For Saturday this configuration of highs and lows will create a strong onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF and through the Chehalis Gap. This will result in a nice southerly flow of 10-20 knots over the Central and South Sound, extending north into Admiralty Inlet and the San Juan Islands. Over the day on Saturday the flow down the Strait will become the dominant feature and flow through the Chehalis Gap will ease. By late afternoon and into the early evening Saturday the SW breeze in the Straits will build and extend into San Juans. This will bring a lighter breeze to the Sound and Admiralty Inlet.
Feb 23 Sat PicFeb 23 PNW Sat Pic
On Sunday the 995MB low with attached frontal system over Haida Gwaii will drift slowly to SE and aim for the Salish Sea. This will have the effect of increasing the NW flow down the Strait of JdF and through the Chehalis Gap. By mid-morning expect 15-25 knots of westerly in the Straits, and 10-20 knots of southerly in the Central and South Sound. YES, even in Olympia. 😊
By mid-afternoon on Sunday, the flow down the Straits will increase to 25-35 knots while flow in the Central and South Sound will increase to 15-25 knots. Yes, even in Olympia. The other interesting feature of this will be that the convergence zone in the North and Central Sound will be very small and relatively fast-moving as it comes down the Sound. After dark in the North Sound and Admiralty Inlet expect 25-35 knots of NNW.
Oh yeah, there will also be rain on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc etc. Right now we are about an inch behind for the month but that may change by the end of the month.
This weekend’s weather will be very similar to last weekend with the surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and 500MB Chart all providing insight into what will be happening around us. We have a large area of low pressure (975MB) just off the coast with a secondary center (984MB) still just off the Aleutians with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians southeasterly to just off of San Francisco before curving off to the southwest to the Hawaiian Islands. Notice also the tightly packed pressure gradient between the low off of our coast and the high-pressure system (1039MB) centered inland over lower BC, a whopping 64MB difference. The high wind warning chart from NWS Seattle shows the easterly flow through the gaps in the Cascades with the highest winds of 40-60mph (not knots) in the areas east of Tacoma near Snoqualmie Pass, and Enumclaw. Everybody in Olympia is rubbing their hands in anticipation of this extending into tomorrow. Unfortunately, it won’t.
The current wind speeds show this easterly flow is taking the usual path of least resistance out to the Pacific Ocean with 34 knots reported at Crystal Pass, Cape Elizabeth, the mouth of the Straits, and La Perouse Bank, 29 knots at Westport, Crystal Mountain, and Race Rocks, and only 4 knots at Olympia. Bummer. The problem will be that as this weakening cold front that is over us moves to the east, the ridge of high pressure will rebuild on the east side of the Cascades. As usual, the best wind will be in the 12 hours following frontal passage. After that, in the absence of another strong front, the pressure gradient will ease. The SE breeze will hold along the coast and in the Strait of JdF as the front stalls along the coast. The pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend.
For Toliva Shoal it will be mostly a light air drifter as you drag race from hole to hole. The wind will start as a 2-4 knot northerly in Budd Inlet, and then shift to a northeasterly in Dana Passage. By the afternoon the wind will shift to the SW in the Nisqually Reach but remain in the 2-4 knot range. By late afternoon expect a weak northerly at Toliva Shoal. Luckily tides will 1 knot or less. By early evening the breeze will continue to ease, luckily very smart people are running this race and they know when and where to shorten the course. Plus, the post-race at OYC is always a great time.
Another exciting week of weather for the NW and the rest of the USA. California got pounded with rain, snow, and wind (a recorded gust of 162mph!). The good news is that the NWS got the forecast pretty much exactly correct. The new computers are making the forecasts and modeling systems truly more accurate. Our tax dollars are at work!
The bad news is that yesterday the NWS announced a La Niña warning beginning in August of this year and we are not yet done with El Niño. Remember in the good old days these events would be separated by 5-7 YEARS not months. There are also discussions to add a Category Six to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale because of an increasing frequency of stronger storms due to global warming. Just ask California about that!
Today’s surface chart shows a familiar scenario with a large low-pressure system in the Aleutians, three other low-pressure systems in the central Pacific aimed at the PacNW, and a weak Pacific High(1028MB) roughly centered at 30N 140W with a lobe extending NE into the PacNW. The Aleutian low has an impressive front that extends from the Aleutians’ east to almost Haida Gwaii before curving SW to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Since the Pacific High is relatively weak, this large frontal system will brush the high aside and come into the PacNW late Sunday and into Monday. The combination of the weak high and the coastal buffer zone will have the effect of degrading the front so don’t expect much rain in the lowlands or snow in the mountains. California will also get more rain. The other three low-pressure systems will combine to slide into the PacNW on or about Wednesday. Still not bringing us much significant moisture.
The prevailing wind for the weekend will be a pre-frontal SE with the most wind being along the coast (15-25 knts) with slightly less wind in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands. The Central and South Sound will have light air for Saturday with slightly more Sunday. Should be a good Winter Shaw Island Race.
The other charts of interest today are the 48Hr Surface Forecast chart and the 500Mb Charts. The 48Hr chart is particularly interesting because the Roser Low Index is the highest we have seen this year with a record 22 separate low-pressure systems in the North Pacific. The heck with the Groundhog seeing his shadow, we have plenty of winter still coming our way. As always, the question will be how much of that moisture will be converted into snowpack.
The 500Mb charts still show a consistent zonal flow across the Pacific, with the jet stream coming ashore south of San Francisco. This will keep temps on the cool side for the coming week with no warming trend in sight. For the lowlands, we can expect highs in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s with lows in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.
Now about the Toliva Shoal Race, right now it looks a little on the light side as the lows will remain in the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific High will be pushed to SE. This will keep the pressure gradient eased. We will have an update next Friday. Regardless of the weather, the hospitality in Olympia will, as always, be great.
Don’t forget that tomorrow is the last day of the Big Seattle Boat Show, so don’t miss that!
After years of begging for more rain and snow, California is now getting plenty. Yesterday, some locations in Southern California got as much rain in one day as they get for the entire month of February. Once again, the Pacific NW is very lucky with some typically mild conditions. For January we got 6.31” of rain compared to an average of 5.76” so a good .55” ahead for the year. Remember also that a year ago we only got 3.09” in January. Please also note that for the 2nd of February, we are already .06” behind for the month. The upcoming week doesn’t look like there will be much added to the total. Just another gray, mild, week in the Pacific NW.
Today’s surface chart and sat pics show a trough of low pressure along the coast with a mild (990MB) low-pressure system just off the coast. This low will slide south along the coast over the weekend and dissipate, allowing a weak ridge of high pressure to build over the Salish Sea. As you can see from the 24hr (3 Feb) surface forecast chart there will be little pressure gradient over the Salish Sea so don’t expect much wind anywhere. A perfect day to go to the Boat Show. Sunday will be a better day for sailing, at least in the Central Sound as a nice northerly flow will be in place for the day slowly building over the afternoon and into the evening. We could have as much as 15-20 knots by mid-afternoon from Pt No Pt to Commencement Bay with very little rain. Note also in the sat pics the cool, unstable air behind the trough.
The 48hr (4 Feb) surface chart is, as usual, one of the most interesting as it shows the next low with attached frontal system headed into California before it slides up the coast and into the Pacific NW. This system will have dumped most of its moisture before it gets to our area. It is also interesting to note the Pacific High (1035MB) centered at 40N 150W which is almost a normal summertime location.
The Jet Stream remains zonal across most of the Pacific before becoming more meridional as it approaches our coast. It still comes ashore well south of us near the California/Mexican Border, this will keep the temps cool but at least above freezing in the lowlands. This will also help preserve our snowpack.
Enjoy the weekend and enjoy the Boat Show.
Ed. Note: I’ll be showing Swiftsure Yachts’ Allures 45.9 at Bell Street on Sunday afternoon. – Kurt Hoehne
