Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race.

This weekend’s weather will be very similar to last weekend with the surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and 500MB Chart all providing insight into what will be happening around us.  We have a large area of low pressure (975MB) just off the coast with a secondary center (984MB) still just off the Aleutians with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians southeasterly to just off of San Francisco before curving off to the southwest to the Hawaiian Islands. Notice also the tightly packed pressure gradient between the low off of our coast and the high-pressure system (1039MB) centered inland over lower BC, a whopping 64MB difference. The high wind warning chart from NWS Seattle shows the easterly flow through the gaps in the Cascades with the highest winds of 40-60mph (not knots) in the areas east of Tacoma near Snoqualmie Pass, and Enumclaw.  Everybody in Olympia is rubbing their hands in anticipation of this extending into tomorrow. Unfortunately, it won’t.

The current wind speeds show this easterly flow is taking the usual path of least resistance out to the Pacific Ocean with 34 knots reported at Crystal Pass, Cape Elizabeth, the mouth of the Straits, and La Perouse Bank, 29 knots at Westport, Crystal Mountain, and Race Rocks, and only 4 knots at Olympia. Bummer. The problem will be that as this weakening cold front that is over us moves to the east, the ridge of high pressure will rebuild on the east side of the Cascades. As usual, the best wind will be in the 12 hours following frontal passage. After that, in the absence of another strong front, the pressure gradient will ease. The SE breeze will hold along the coast and in the Strait of JdF as the front stalls along the coast. The pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend.

For Toliva Shoal it will be mostly a light air drifter as you drag race from hole to hole. The wind will start as a 2-4 knot northerly in Budd Inlet, and then shift to a northeasterly in Dana Passage. By the afternoon the wind will shift to the SW in the Nisqually Reach but remain in the 2-4 knot range. By late afternoon expect a weak northerly at Toliva Shoal. Luckily tides will 1 knot or less. By early evening the breeze will continue to ease, luckily very smart people are running this race and they know when and where to shorten the course. Plus, the post-race at OYC is always a great time.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race and it looks like a very interesting one!

As I said in my Wednesday night presentation to the OYC and SSSS, I expected conditions to change just because of the lack of movement of systems and the amorphous behavior of the systems over the Pacific NW. Today’s surface analysis chart shows high-pressure systems to the north and south of us with low-pressure systems to the east and west of us. By tomorrow morning we’ll simply have a weak (1018MB) low pressure offshore with an attached cold front. As this system comes onshore it will weaken and a strong post-frontal onshore flow will develop along the coast bringing a 20-25 knot NW breeze. There will also be a nice flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound in the morning and early afternoon. There will also be a nice flow down the Strait of JdF and then into the Central and South Sound. This is how things will get interesting for Toliva Shoal. The other caveat here is that none of the models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow.

By the 19th of Feb we’ll have a nice and round Pacific High which would be great if we getting ready for Hawaii however this time of the year it will simply serve to deflect storm systems away from us. The really interesting chart is the 96hr (21 Feb) surface forecast. The Pacific High has deepened to 1046MB and moved into the Gulf of Alaska while two weak low-pressure systems remain over the Salish Sea, This will bring yet another cold snap to our area as well as a chance of lowland snow. Luckily, all we may get for Toliva is some light rain.

So how does all this breakdown for the race? The good news is that we’ll have wind for the start and a pretty favorable wind direction and wind strength all the way to Toliva Shoal. After Toliva, just as we go to the big ebb of the day, the wind will start to shift to the west and drop in speed. Here’s how it will break down.

1000 start SSW wind 8-15 knots. Downwind start!

1100-1200 Breeze holds from the SSW at 8-15 knots.

1200 A slightly stronger flow develops through the Chehalis Gap 10-18 knots of SW breeze from Johnson Pt to Toliva Shoal.

1300 SW 10-15 Anderson Isl to Toliva, Balch Passage to Devils Head becoming W to 10 knots Johnson Pt to Cooper Pt.

Navigators will want to start plotting wind direction and wind strength down the Strait of JdF, down Admiralty Inlet, and down the Sound as the onshore flow builds. This will weaken the flow through the Chehalis Gap.

1400 Wind Westerly 8-12 knots over the course.

1500 Wind westerly easing to 5-10 knots.

1600 Wind ENE 3-8 knots Toliva and Balch Passage. Wind westerly 4-8 knots Dana Passage to Finish. Convergence zone developing  Balch to Johnson Pt.

1700 Wind ENE 3-6 knots Toliva to Devils H. Wind Westerly 3-6 knots Dana Pass to finish

1800-Time Limit: Wind light and variable over the course

Here’s where we roll the dice and break out the Meadow Point Marine/Sailish.Com Dart Board.

Who will finish and when:

Boat                            Toliva Shoal                            Finish

Riptide                        1320hrs                                   2330hrs

J-133                           1340hrs                                   2340hrs

J-120                           1353hrs                                   0313hrs Sunday

J-35                             1511hrs                                   0420hrs Sunday

White Squall               1600hrs                                   0530hrs Sunday

One forecast that is always 100% accurate is that the hospitality at OYC before and after the race will, as always, be exceptional. After the race, while the wind may be light on the race course, there will be plenty of hot air inside the clubhouse. 😊

For the delivery home on Sunday, the breeze will once again be from the south at 5-10 from 0700hrs and slowly build from that direction all day. By Sunday afternoon expect 15-20 knots from the south.

Over the weekend, the strongest breeze will be in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands.

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.

Toliva Shoal Race

Toliva Shoal Race

Olympia Yacht Club’s Toliva Shoal Race is always a challenge. Sometimes the challenge is making the time limit, sometimes withstanding February temperatures. This past Saturday the challenge was dealing with a serious blow interrupted occasionally by some truly light wind conditions. Bruce Hedrick predicted the blow for those who checked Sailish on Friday evening. Jan Anderson provided the photos below. Results.

We have two reports, one from PHRF 3 class winner Robert King on String Theory, and one from the non-flying sails cruising class winner Dave Knowlton on KOOSAH. Congratulations to all!

String Theory‘s Race

For Team String Theory, the Toliva Shoal Race is always challenging: the overarching factors are wind and current; this year both were very significant. Our preparations are always race-specific; safety is paramount, with fun and race results close runner ups. 

Our pre-race sail selection is based upon our interpretation of various meteorological models. Vessel preparation, including a clean bottom (high five to Ben Bottoms! Ed. Note. – check out Ben’s Facebook page), and high-quality sails (thumbs up to North Sails Seattle!) are imperatives for success.

String Theory, photo by Rick Donohue

In Toliva 2020 the wind velocity varied considerably: in some areas of the racecourse we saw sustained true wind velocity of 22 south/southwesterlies, with gusts upward of 30; in some areas of the racecourse we saw 4-5 knots of adverse current; in other areas, the wind was almost negligible!

In the South Sound, the local topography and bathymetry influence every strategic decision: at times we chose to sail conservatively; other times we pushed “the old gal” hard. 

Tactically, there are some tough competitors on the water; this year was no exception. Perhaps due to the vagaries of wind and current, “small boats” (e.g., Bodacious, Nimbus, Cherokee, and Chinook) filled the top four slots overall; each well-sailed and worthy of congratulations.

Aside from comprehensive preparations, String Theory’s performance is largely attributable to her fine crew (comprised of highly accomplished sailors and long-time mates Gay Morris, Jamie Stewart, Tommy Stewart, Derek Decouteau, Kerry Sherwin, Mike Ellis, Dave Garman, Mitch Nimon, Mark Bunker, and Daryl Fitch), some with whom I have been sailing for more than thirty years. 

We each sail with a variety of programs including Stars, Farr 395s, TransPac 52s, and the Reichel Pugh 55’ Crossfire. Every winter, Team String Theory gets together for three or four of the Southern Sound Series.

Perhaps the most important: I want to express my sincere gratitude to a few sailors among Seattle’s finest with whom I have had the pleasure to sail and learn from: Glen Utgaard, Steve Travis, John Buchan, Carl Buchan, Jonathan McKee, Jim Marta, and in particular, Bill Buchan.

Ultimately, the gentlemen above have been exemplary role models and significant influences in the success that String Theory enjoys today. 

Robert T. King, Skipper S/V String Theory

KOOSAH‘s Race

What a wonderful sailing weekend!  Great party Friday night filling the Olympia Yacht Clubhouse!

Bruce’s weather report was spot on! We had wind and lots of it!  Aboard Koosah we start 30 minutes before the PHRF racers, and since we are non -flying sails, we get to see the entire fleet as they pass us somewhere on the course.  Most of them passed us after rounding the McAllister Creek Buoy and heading to the Toliva Shoal Mark. It appeared that the majority of the fleet was able to get up on a plane as they zipped passed us! It looked exciting to see a 40-foot yacht screeching downwind with the spinnaker!   Redline, an Atrium 27, was doing around 14 knots near Lyle Point on Anderson Island when their rudder broke at the gudgeons. They lowered the sails and were able to hold their position with the motor but were unable to go anywhere in the large waves. A race spotter boat came to their assistance and towed them back to Zittles Marina. Flying Circus, an Express 37, tore out their mainsail in the heavy winds and decided to withdraw.  Demi Moore, a Moore 24, had their light wind mainsail on board, and wisely decided to sail without it. 

Almost all the finishers were across the finish line before dark.  This does not happen often in this race!  The winds were in the 20’s and gusting into the 30’s the entire day.

After the race, the Olympia Yacht Club became full again as several of the racers enjoyed the homemade soup and Fishtale Ale! 

Dave Knowlton, Skipper S/V Koosah

Photos by Jan Anderson


Islands Race a Light Beat and That’s All Folks

Islands Race a Light Beat and That’s All Folks

Gig Harbor YC’s Islands Race wasn’t looking to promising in the wind department, and indeed Bruce’s Brief pretty much nailed it for the day. But a little northerly did roll through Colvos passage and gave the fleet a nice current-aided push down Colvos Passage.

The course was shortened, making it 4 for 4 for South Sound races being shortened this season. There weren’t many complaints as the northerly was expected to die off. The breeze did stick around long enough to give some boats a gentle spinnaker run back south.

This marked the end of the 2018-19 South Sound Series. First overall went to Dos, Best in Fleet to Crossfire and the team of Bodacious, Redline and McSwoosh won the team trophy. Koosah won all four races in the non-flying sails class and Blue Max won the Flying Sails Commodore Class.

Race results here. Series results here.

Photos courtesy of Jeffrey Hogan and Tom Gray.

Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 15, 16, and 17 March. South Sound Series Islands Race

Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 15, 16, and 17 March. South Sound Series Islands Race

The Ides of March and clearing over the Salish Sea.

The really interesting weather this week occurred over the Central US where there was a bombogenesis event. To have such an event means that you have a low-pressure system that drops 24MB in 24 hours. This low-pressure system rapidly intensified dropping 24MB in just 13 hours and brought hurricane force winds to most of the central plains along with blowing and drifting snow. The central pressure in that low dropped to 956MB. The lowest pressure we’ve seen in the central pacific so far this winter was 954MB in early December.

Unfortunately, we won’t have any where near that this weekend. It will be a lovely weekend to be on the water with temps maybe getting up into the low 60’s with the bad news being that there won’t by much wind for the Islands Race. The surface charts show the problem with a weak ridge of high-pressure setting up over central BC and extending south into the US. This will also act as a nice barrier keeping any low-pressure systems well offshore and directing them into SE Alaska. This pattern will persist into early next week with the 500MB charts showing the jet stream remaining in pretty much the same place. The good news is that this will help bring warmer temps to the Pacific NW just in time for spring!

For the Islands Race at least the current will, as usual, be going the right way in Colvos which will help the fleet get north to the turning mark where maybe the race will be finished. From the start you’ll want to find the axis of the current and ride that as you drag race from hole to hole. Then it will be a race to get to the Tides Tavern and then on to the Yacht Club for what is always a great party.

Enjoy the weekend!

Winter Vashon – A Bright, Slow Sail on Colvos Passage

Winter Vashon – A Bright, Slow Sail on Colvos Passage

Sometimes, Winter Vashon is a fast glorious circuit of the island back to warm drinks in Tacoma. Sometimes, it’s an excruciatingly slow process in dreary, cuttingly cold conditions. And sometimes, like last Saturday, it’s not so much a race as it is a great way to spend a day enjoying the bright sun while we still have it.

As Bruce Hedrick predicted last Friday, the early indications that this year’s Winter Vashon would be a fast race evaporated, leaving clear signs that it would be a slow Vashon. The Tacoma Yacht Club race committee made the obvious decision to shorten the course. The fleet sailed on a kind of southerly all day in blazing sunshine, connecting zephyrs wherever possible. Even the mighty Crossfire with her massive rig couldn’t find much air up high. They did find enough to win the race overall.

Photos by Jan Anderson. Click here to see the rest of her gallery.  Click any photo to enlarge.

Throughout the fleet, light air skills bubbled up to take home the trophies. Second overall was the speedy little Antrim 27 Redline with third going to Mark Brink on the Peterson OD 34 Tonic. Results at https://www.regattanetwork.com/clubmgmt/applet_regatta_results.php?regatta_id=17719. We’ll be getting weather and tactical outlooks out the day before racing for the remaining South Sound Series races.

Toliva Shoal Race a Boom-buster

Toliva Shoal Race a Boom-buster

There’s nothing like a little carnage to get the racing blood boiling. The Toliva Shoal Race, third in the South Sound Series, was raced on Saturday. We can talk about race tactics, but it seems like it was mainly an exercise of survival on the course. Details are still coming in, and apologies for anything inaccurate or missing, but here’s what we have so far:

Broken finger onboard Korina Korina.

Broken boom on Equus.

Blown up chute on Cherokee.

Lost rudder and engine issues on Zig Zag, had to be towed from the McNeil Island area.

Torn main on Les Cheveux Blanc.

Lost backstay on Flying Circus.

Rig issues on Bodacious.

By all accounts Bruce had it right on Friday’s Brief, and the gusts that knocked boats silly sure seemed to be in the 40s. The wind came through on bursts, taking a what seemed like a challenging but under control run into a broach crisis. The boats that made it to Toliva Shoal then faced a brutal upwind. Some came in under headsail alone. There were 19 finishers and over 50 entries. Winners included Jam, String Theory, Leucothea, Lightly Salted, Redline, Folie ‘a Deux, Cherokee, White Squall and Jolly Rumbalow. Results.

According to Kenelm Russell, who’s done “nearly all of them,” this one was the windiest. Not too much for his Fast Passage 39, which he sailed as a family affair including sons, daughter and brother. The mainsail had to come down when the reefing line snapped, and two windows were knocked out because of flailing sheets, but none of it was too much for the Fast Passage Rushwind. Rushwind, after all, has been around the Pacific twice and up to Alaska. (Note to self, now that’s a cruiser racer. They still exist!)  He notes that Balch Passage was memorable. “It was frothy white – like sailing through foam,” Russell.

In a race like this, it’s best to let the pictures and videos give the explanations, so I’ve included a lot of them.

 

First off, from Jan Anderson’s album:

 

Sean Trew caught the action as well:

Here’s a video from Jim Larsen taken at Boston Harbor:

Here’s a video from the Ericson 32 Finally Free:

And here’s another by Mike Gowrylow:

If you want to share more – send them to me or share to the sailish.com Facebook Page! (You do “Like” sailish on Facebook, right?)

Bruce’s Brief’s 1,2 and 3 Dec: TYC Winter Vashon

Bruce’s Brief’s 1,2 and 3 Dec: TYC Winter Vashon

As usual, there will be a great turnout for the start of the South Sound Series. Where else do we get a chance to race in rain, snow, and sometimes a pretty good breeze. Unfortunately, this year it’s looking like some breeze for the start then dropping off as we transition from a very rainy November to a dryish and coolish start of December. November is traditionally our wettest month and this year will be no exception as we are two inches ahead of our average rainfall for the month. The good news is that we’ve only had 42 inches of rain so far this year and the record is 55 inches set in 1950. The normal amount of rain for the year by the end of November is 32 inches.

As you can see from the charts we’ve got quite a mishmash of weather systems lurking off the coast and by Monday we’ll have the start of a fairly big high-pressure system starting to build over the area with a whopping low-pressure slamming the Aleutians, again.

While it is Thursday, the models are still divergent with the general consensus shifting towards some wind on Saturday morning from the south then gradually becoming lighter before it shifts to the north by around midnight. For racers, this will mean drag racing from puff to puff as you ride the tide up Colvos. While you may have 8-10 knots of southerly for the start, this will drop to five knots or less as the day goes on with plenty of dead spots in Colvos. The masthead Windex will give you some warning about where the next puff will be coming from. The boats with the tall rigs will make out as long as the trimmers are working hard. After you get around the top mark you’ll probably have a due southerly until it goes really light around mid-afternoon. As you beat towards Pt. Robinson, don’t get too close to Vashon and don’t stray too far to the east of the rhumb line. While on starboard if the puffs start to become lifts that will tell you to stay to the west just not too close to the Island.

The great thing about TYC is that if it gets too sticky in Colvos, they usually have the good sense to end the race at the top mark so make sure someone has the bino’s out and you’re checking the flags on the mark boat.

While the parties, both pre and post race, at TYC are legendary, remember that the first day the high-pressure ridge builds over the Northwest will result in the most wind from the North and if you’re delivering the boat back to Seattle on Sunday you could have 15-20 cold knots of wind right on the nose. If they finish you at the top mark and Seattle is your home port, head straight for the barn after you finish and juggle the cars later.

Good luck and have a great race.

 

 

The Car puts her Stamp on the Islands Race, Three Tree Team Wins South Sound Series

The Car puts her Stamp on the Islands Race, Three Tree Team Wins South Sound Series

The South Sound Series came to warm, happy end over the weekend as the fleet sailed in good breeze the whole day and finished the race on a sunny note. Champion for the day was Paul LeMarche’s mighty SC70 Neptune’s Car, elapsed time, class and overall winner. Results here.

A rainy start to the day sent the fleet on its way along Colvos Passage on a fairly square run. After rounding the mark on the north side of Blake Island, it was back the way they came, but time fighting the permanent current. As the sun came out the wind clocked, giving the fleet a long starboard tack on the way home. Jan Anderson, whose photographs are presented here, reported

“Most of the spinnakers were fairly well organized (not a lot of calamity but a whole lotta color!), yet wet – wet – wet, making it tough to get a reasonable shot without rain on Jan’s lens.  Shoot – wipe – shoot – wipe – repeat – ad infinitum.  Passing the turning mark, though, where only momentarily the wind shut down in the lee of Blake Island, someone somewhere flipped a switch … the sky slowly cleared, the breeze kicked it up several notches, and for most of the fleet, the beat back to the finish off Gig Harbor was exactly that, a BEAT.”

See the rest of Jan’s photos here.

Onboard “The Car” 10 very busy bodies kept the sails going up and down in fine fashion and, according to Ballard Sails‘ Alex Simanis, they were clicking on pretty much all the oscillating shifts including about 10 gybes down Colvos. Upwind without much rail weight they opted for the #4 headsail instead of the #3. The Car isn’t your average SC70. She has about six more feet of rig plus a bigger J (foretriangle) and E (main foot) that other SCs, plus a lot more interior.

A look at the Car’s #4.

Simanis reports that Ballard Sails is selling a lot of sails these days. Some sails are built right here in Ballard while they also have a Sri Lanka loft build a lot of other sails to their own design. The tragic passing of sail designer Doug Christie a year and half ago left a void, which has since been filled by John Fries, who works with lot of high-powered East Coast racing programs. “We’re really happy with his designs,” Simanis reports.

Simanis has great plans for next year. He’s going to sail his own boat Poke ‘n Destroy to Hawaii in the Pacific Cup.

The South Sound Final Tally

As the Southern Sound Series comes to a conclusion, here are the winners:

Winning Team: Three Tree Point Yacht Club Nimbus, EQUUS, Les Chevaux Blancs

First Overall (on lowest cumulative class finishes): Bodacious

Best in Fleet (lowest fleet position scores: Kahuna

Congratulations all, and congrats to South Sound Sailing Society and all the host clubs, for once again putting on a fine series.

 

Don’t forget, Bruce Hedrick will be looking into his crystal weather ball on Friday before CYC’s Three Tree Point Race. To receive the sailish.com newsletter sign up here. You can also get notifications when the weather reports are online by checking the Weather Notifications box when you sign up. 

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for February 18-19 and Toliva Shoal Race!

Have we had enough rain yet? Apparently not as we are currently sitting at the 6th wettest February ever and there’s a ways to go before the end of the month. All we need is about 2 more inches of rain to be the wettest and that could happen this coming week.

As you can see from the current surface chart there’s not much happening over the Pacific Northwest however California is going to take another major hit this weekend. We will feel some of the residual from that system starting on Saturday afternoon and some moisture will make it up to the Sound. It still won’t bring much wind with it. Unfortunately, the models are pretty much in agreement that it’s going to be light most of the day on Saturday. The problem will be that the wind offshore with be northerly with no gradient over the Sound. As the day goes on, the wind offshore will become more westerly, still light as in 10 knots or less. And then there will be some flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. As the wind offshore backs around to the southwest that will bring more of a southerly component to the wind over the south Sound, still probably 10 knots or less.

The good news is that the tide will be with the Toliva Shoal Race fleet and there are plenty of options for the race committee to shorten the course at any number of marks along the way. Besides, the gracious hospitality back in Olympia is not to be missed especially after the race.

Tides for Dana Passage:    

Saturday:

0500      Slack

0712      Flood     1.14 knots

1030      Slack

1342      Ebb          1.96 knots

1800      Slack

2024      Flood     1.25 knots

As usual, getting out of Budd Inlet will be challenging. The key will be to be near the starting line, and not be swept over with the ebb which will probably start early because of all the runoff from this week’s rain. Then find a lane of clear air and aim down the course trying to find the axis of the current while staying in the puff. If it’s 0 gusting to ½ knot don’t let too many people accumulate in the stern which increases the wetted surface area and slows the boat down. You’ll also want to be rigged for reaching with barber haulers and flying the drifter or wind seeker. Trimmers will definitely earn their keep tomorrow.

From Boston Harbor to Itsami Ledge don’t get too close to the south side of Dana Passage. The southerly breeze or what there is of it, will be coming over the land and not touch down on the water until ¼ to ½ way off the beach. Watch the smart people in front of you in the classes that started ahead and track who goes where and how they’re doing. Not always easy but worthwhile if you can make it work.

There will be a lot of water coming out of the Nisqually Flats and that can sometimes create a current that flows to the northwest from Lyle Point to Treble Point on Anderson Island so watch your COG and SOG after Buoy “3” and before your turn to go north to Toliva Shoal. You will also be able to see this current as it will be distinctly brown, muddy water on top of the saltwater of the Sound. Also track which way the eddies are spinning on tide lines to make sure you are on the fast side.

As you can see from the Sunday surface chart another front is headed our way and that will per usual manifest itself as a southeasterly in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern end of the Straits gradually working its way back down the Sound by mid Sunday afternoon. If you’re cruising up north this weekend, thinking about being in the Straits, track the wind reports before you head out as it could be cranking on Sunday.

By next Tuesday we will have a lot more rain as two frontal systems line up and take aim at us. Could also get a bit breezy. Looking at the 500MB Charts you can see why we’re going to be watching that 950 MB low in mid-Pacific. That is a significant storm that could impact our region by next weekend.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.