This weekend’s weather will be very similar to last weekend with the surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and 500MB Chart all providing insight into what will be happening around us. We have a large area of low pressure (975MB) just off the coast with a secondary center (984MB) still just off the Aleutians with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians southeasterly to just off of San Francisco before curving off to the southwest to the Hawaiian Islands. Notice also the tightly packed pressure gradient between the low off of our coast and the high-pressure system (1039MB) centered inland over lower BC, a whopping 64MB difference. The high wind warning chart from NWS Seattle shows the easterly flow through the gaps in the Cascades with the highest winds of 40-60mph (not knots) in the areas east of Tacoma near Snoqualmie Pass, and Enumclaw. Everybody in Olympia is rubbing their hands in anticipation of this extending into tomorrow. Unfortunately, it won’t.
The current wind speeds show this easterly flow is taking the usual path of least resistance out to the Pacific Ocean with 34 knots reported at Crystal Pass, Cape Elizabeth, the mouth of the Straits, and La Perouse Bank, 29 knots at Westport, Crystal Mountain, and Race Rocks, and only 4 knots at Olympia. Bummer. The problem will be that as this weakening cold front that is over us moves to the east, the ridge of high pressure will rebuild on the east side of the Cascades. As usual, the best wind will be in the 12 hours following frontal passage. After that, in the absence of another strong front, the pressure gradient will ease. The SE breeze will hold along the coast and in the Strait of JdF as the front stalls along the coast. The pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend.
For Toliva Shoal it will be mostly a light air drifter as you drag race from hole to hole. The wind will start as a 2-4 knot northerly in Budd Inlet, and then shift to a northeasterly in Dana Passage. By the afternoon the wind will shift to the SW in the Nisqually Reach but remain in the 2-4 knot range. By late afternoon expect a weak northerly at Toliva Shoal. Luckily tides will 1 knot or less. By early evening the breeze will continue to ease, luckily very smart people are running this race and they know when and where to shorten the course. Plus, the post-race at OYC is always a great time.
Have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)