Another exciting week of weather for the NW and the rest of the USA. California got pounded with rain, snow, and wind (a recorded gust of 162mph!). The good news is that the NWS got the forecast pretty much exactly correct. The new computers are making the forecasts and modeling systems truly more accurate. Our tax dollars are at work!
The bad news is that yesterday the NWS announced a La Niña warning beginning in August of this year and we are not yet done with El Niño. Remember in the good old days these events would be separated by 5-7 YEARS not months. There are also discussions to add a Category Six to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale because of an increasing frequency of stronger storms due to global warming. Just ask California about that!
Today’s surface chart shows a familiar scenario with a large low-pressure system in the Aleutians, three other low-pressure systems in the central Pacific aimed at the PacNW, and a weak Pacific High(1028MB) roughly centered at 30N 140W with a lobe extending NE into the PacNW. The Aleutian low has an impressive front that extends from the Aleutians’ east to almost Haida Gwaii before curving SW to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Since the Pacific High is relatively weak, this large frontal system will brush the high aside and come into the PacNW late Sunday and into Monday. The combination of the weak high and the coastal buffer zone will have the effect of degrading the front so don’t expect much rain in the lowlands or snow in the mountains. California will also get more rain. The other three low-pressure systems will combine to slide into the PacNW on or about Wednesday. Still not bringing us much significant moisture.
The prevailing wind for the weekend will be a pre-frontal SE with the most wind being along the coast (15-25 knts) with slightly less wind in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands. The Central and South Sound will have light air for Saturday with slightly more Sunday. Should be a good Winter Shaw Island Race.
The other charts of interest today are the 48Hr Surface Forecast chart and the 500Mb Charts. The 48Hr chart is particularly interesting because the Roser Low Index is the highest we have seen this year with a record 22 separate low-pressure systems in the North Pacific. The heck with the Groundhog seeing his shadow, we have plenty of winter still coming our way. As always, the question will be how much of that moisture will be converted into snowpack.
The 500Mb charts still show a consistent zonal flow across the Pacific, with the jet stream coming ashore south of San Francisco. This will keep temps on the cool side for the coming week with no warming trend in sight. For the lowlands, we can expect highs in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s with lows in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.
Now about the Toliva Shoal Race, right now it looks a little on the light side as the lows will remain in the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific High will be pushed to SE. This will keep the pressure gradient eased. We will have an update next Friday. Regardless of the weather, the hospitality in Olympia will, as always, be great.
Don’t forget that tomorrow is the last day of the Big Seattle Boat Show, so don’t miss that!
Have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)