As with any transitional weather situation, the models do not agree on when the transition will occur. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give us a nice overview of the current conditions with a weak low-pressure system off the Oregon coast meandering slowly around with a weak frontal system right along the coast. When the front finally passes, a stronger onshore flow will come down the Straits and into the Sound. Models do agree that this will probably occur sometime between late morning and mid-afternoon tomorrow. At least it will be cool with occasional light rain. Luckily, tides will not be much of an issue.
Rain and snowpack continue to be a problem that will probably continue into the late spring and early summer. So far this month we have only had 1.17” which is 1.73” below normal and for the year we are 1.12” below normal. Even with more systems headed our way this week they will be weak and will not do much to increase rainfall totals.
The surface forecast chart for Saturday shows quite a gap in the pressure gradients over the Salish Sea. The weak low off the coast will meander off to the SE allowing a weak ridge of high pressure to develop over the area. This will keep a weak northerly flow over the area through Sunday.
For tomorrow, the question will be which course to send us on. If they send us on the long course to TTP the TP-52’s will be around in about 6 hours with a zone of light air lasting about 1 to 3 hours after a start in 6-9 knts of SE. The J-35’s will be around the course in 7.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 8.5 hours.
When the northerly fills down the Sound it will of course be light to start and then build to 10-15 by mid-afternoon, with one model showing 15-20 knts. This will last until about mid-evening before it starts to ease.
If they send us on the shorter/More sensible mrse, the TP-52’s will take about 3.5 hours, the J-35’s and 105’s about 4.5 hours, and the J-30’s about 5.1 hours. Considering that going south means sailing away from the filling northerly and that means more time in the transition zone on a day with cooler temps and rain, I know which course I would choose. Nothing wrong with getting back to the Club early to swap sea stories.
The preliminary view of South Straits Race looks like it won’t be a barn burner with winds probably averaging 10 knots or less. Not all bad!
Have a great weekend and try to stay dry and warm tomorrow.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)