Hard as it may be to believe, we will have wind once again for the weekend and for the upcoming week as several systems will march right on through the Pacific NW. Also interesting is that all five models are pretty much in agreement. The differences are about how much wind we’ll have and when the cold front will pass over us tomorrow. We are still about .5” of rain behind for the month however tomorrow and this week could change that and help the snowpack in our mountains which is still behind. Dress warmly and stay dry.
Today’s surface analysis charts show an unrelenting group of lows with attached frontal systems off our coast and headed our way. California will still get most of the rain and snow however we will begin to get close to our seasonal norm which is all good, unless you live in California. The Pacific High, because it remains weak, has been pushed off to the south while the slightly stronger High east of the Cascades will push systems into BC and SE Alaska. The Upper-Level charts show a meridional flow off the coast for today with the jet stream coming ashore mid-Oregon. As the week goes on, this flow will become more zonal with the jet stream drifting to the south and coming ashore mid-California. This will keep temps cool in the PacNW and help preserve what snowpack we have.
The consistent feature in the Surface charts is the bunching of isobars over the Pacific NW and this pressure gradient won’t ease until Wednesday. That’s why we can expect 12-25 knots of SSE for the start tomorrow and that will build to 20-30 knots midday with higher gusts. The question is when will the cold front go through because that is when the breeze will start to clock from SSE to SSW to SW. By late afternoon the gradient should start to ease, however I think the fleet will have finished by then.
Tides should not be an issue as slack at Scatchet Head should be around 1100 hrs however with the consistent southerly flow over the Sound and freshwater coming out of the Snohomish River, flowing out of Possession Sound, and across Scatchet Head, the ebb at Scatchet Head may last another 45-60 minutes. Remember also that the current and wind will build as you approach the mark so figure that into your rounding strategy.
After the mark, if the ebb is still flowing at the mark it will pay to hold port tack to get south and away from the ebb before you tack to starboard. This will get you towards the Edmonds shore and the remainder of the ebb flowing south towards the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The water will also be flatter along that shore. Remember also how shallow it gets from Edwards Point to the oil docks.
The question with frontal passage and the start of the flood tide is whether it would be worthwhile to hold port tack at the mark and go across to the west side of the Sound. The flood does start first on that shore, however I think everyone will be around the mark and well on the way to the finish before the flood gets that far south. So, it would be extra miles to sail to get over there and if the wind doesn’t come around to the SW until later, it could be painful coming back across the Sound from Jeff Head. Something to watch.
As you get beat south of Richmond Beach you will want to watch if boats that hold out to the west start gaining as the breeze starts to clock from the S to the SSW and the SW. Plan your approach to the finish accordingly. This may change depending upon how close the committee boat is to Meadow Point because there could still be southeasterly, port tack lifts along the shore north of Meadow Point.
I have the TP-52’s around in three hours. The J-105’s and J-35’s in 4.25 hours and the J-30 around in 4.75 hrs.
So for tomorrow, safety first, life jackets and safety harnesses before you leave the dock, and maybe a discussion about your person overboard procedures.
Have a safe, fun, and fast race. Also, don’t forget to Spring Forward Saturday night. 😊
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Pingback:Mother Nature Has Her Way in Possession Point – sailish.com