Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 Apr. Lots of sailing all over the Salish Sea this weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 Apr. Lots of sailing all over the Salish Sea this weekend!

It should be a pretty good weekend for racing with the usual caveat that that will depend upon where you’re sailing. The other big news is that in addition to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic with some spillover to the Pacific, we had a spectacular volcanic eruption in Indonesia which was captured on satellite, and the State of Washington has finally declared a drought emergency for the State because of our meager snowpack and lack of spring rains. For April we’ve only had .4” of an inch of rain compared to an average on this date of 2.07”. For the year we’ve had 12.91” compared to an average of 15.78”. Combining this with the forecast of a hotter and drier than normal summer, and an increasing possibility of a La Niña event, this could make for a not-so-much fun season. This would go for not only the usual areas in the Cascades and Eastern Washington but also around the Olympic Mountains.

At least this weekend should be relatively pleasant with the best day being Saturday with a high near 70˚F and the rain holding off until around sunset. Sunday will be 12˚ to 15˚ degrees cooler with cloudy conditions.

What does this mean for wind? As I said, it will depend on where you’re sailing. The reason is apparent from the Sat Pics and the Surface Analysis and Forecast charts. We are having a beautiful day today however not far off the coast is the next frontal system. Typically, as these fronts approach the coast they tend to weaken and fall apart as they interact with the coastal buffer zone. This will happen this weekend however on Saturday there will be a tightening of the pressure gradient as the front comes onshore. Most areas will start with light air except in the Eastern Strait of JdF where on Saturday morning we’ll have a prefrontal SE breeze 15-25 knots.

In the Central Sound, we’ll have light air of 5 knots or less from the SSW until about 1300 hrs when the breeze will build to 5-8 knots from the SSW. By 1400 to 1500hrs the breeze will build to about 10 knots. By 1600 to 1700hrs the breeze will build to SW of 15 knots. By 1800 hrs it could be 15-20 knots of SW.

In the South Sound, you can expect about the same progression but with about  5 knots less breeze.

By 1800 hours in the Eastern Strait of JdF, a solid onshore flow will develop bringing gale warnings to the area for westerlies of 25-35 knots. Those conditions will start to ease by 2100-2200hrs. Don’t take that as a trend as there will continue to be pulses of strong westerlies coming down the Strait through the day on Sunday.

In the Central and South Sound conditions for Sunday will remain in the 5-10 knots of southerly at least until around noon when the westerly in the Straits will begin to try and fill down the Sound. Expect a northerly in the Central Sound of 10-15 knots by around 1400 hours. This will ease through the rest of the afternoon.

Enjoy the weekend just don’t expect the warm temps to last as the jet stream is staying south and becoming more zonal. This will keep the temps on the cool side for at least the next 10 days with very little measurable precip.  

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 April. Sloop Tavern Blakley Rock Race, Plus plenty of sailing all over the Salish Sea and a perfect weekend for it!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 April. Sloop Tavern Blakley Rock Race, Plus plenty of sailing all over the Salish Sea and a perfect weekend for it!

Wind from the north, temps in the 60’s, flowers starting to bloom, all good signs. This weekend should be great. Then there’s Monday where the high temp will be almost 15˚F lower than Sunday. Still no real rain on the horizon and as of today, we are almost an inch behind for the month.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic provide a beautiful picture of what is going on in the Salish Sea. We’ve had the passage of a weak cold front this morning and behind this, a ridge of high pressure will start building over the area. This can already be seen by the strong northerly flow down the Strait of Georgia, through the San Juan Islands, and into Puget Sound. As with this classic situation, the best day for breeze is immediately after frontal passage. The best part is that while there may be some easing in the breeze tomorrow, there will be plenty to race with, just about everywhere. The only exception being Olympia which will remain light.

Today’s sat pic shows the clearing starting to develop over the area as well as that big low-pressure system off the coast of Oregon. It is also interesting to note on the 500MB charts that this low intrudes into the upper levels of the atmosphere. The jet stream remains to the south of this low and will drag this weakening low into California by Sunday/Monday. This is why we’ll have such a nice weekend.

The north wind course for the Blakely Rock Benefit Race can be challenging because of the proximity of the weather mark (Meadow Point) to the starting line. Particularly if there’s a flood tide. With the slower boats starting first sometimes there can be congestion at the mark. Luckily tides should not be much of an issue as a max ebb of less than half a knot will be around 1000 hrs, with the slack at around 1230 hrs. With a persistent northerly of 10-15 knots blowing overnight and then building to 15-20 knots by the time the race starts, the flood may start early by 15-25 minutes. Just watch the classes ahead to see if congestion develops at the mark.

On the run from Meadow Point to Blakely Rock the problem will be keeping your air clear as well as finding a passing lane to get around the slower boats. There may tend to be more breeze on the west side of the Sound.

Blakely Rock will be the place where most of the fleet will compress and finding clear air will be a problem. The challenge will be to stay in clear air and not having to tack too much. The overall goal will be to hold port tack and get across the Sound to Magnolia. There will be some flood at West Point so try to stay out of the current without running aground between Four Mile Rock and the West Point Lighthouse. On this leg expect the breeze to be in the 10-15 knot range from the north.

After West Point don’t tack to port immediately at the Point, instead hold starboard until you can just lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. This will allow you to avoid the flood current that accelerates along the north side of West Point. It will also allow to better judge your approach to the finish line.

The current projections for breeze have this being a fairly speedy race with the TP-52’s around in 1hr 50min, the SC-52 around in 2 hr 05 min, the J-105’s around in 2hr 27 min, the J-35’s around in 2hr 28 min, the Cal 40 around in 2 hr 42 min and the J-30 around in 2 hr and 58 min.

Have a great race, stay safe and have a good time. 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Apr 5, 6, 7, and 8 Apr. CYC Small Boat Regatta, and South Sound McAllister Creek

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Apr 5, 6, 7, and 8 Apr. CYC Small Boat Regatta, and South Sound McAllister Creek

Overall, it looks like a decent weekend of sailing, especially in the south and central Sound. Yes, even wind in the South Sound for McAllister Creek.

We have a fairly strong Pacific High (1042MB) in the mid-Pacific with a weak trough of low pressure along the west coast. This will keep a persistent SW flow over the Salish Sea with some rain. It will also be on the cool side. Take a look at the upper level/500MB charts and you’ll notice the jet stream currently comes ashore in Mexico which is why the temps are relatively cool. Notice also that over the week, the jet stream will become more zonal and by Tuesday/Wednesday it will be coming ashore near Westport which will facilitate some warming. That means upper temps finally getting back into the 60s by Tuesday/Wednesday and holding into next weekend.

For the South Sound tomorrow it looks like a SW breeze of 6-10 knots over the race course until about 1530-1630hrs when from Johnson Point to Big Tykle Cove(BTC) the breeze will ease to 2-4 knots. South of BTC the breeze will remain at 4-6 knots to the finish with the puffs clocking from the SW to WSW and W.

For the Central Sound, the breeze will start at 15-20 knots from the SW and gradually ease through the day and back to the SSW. For Sunday expect a SW breeze of 8-14 knots which will ease slightly over the day. The models are not in agreement after about mid-afternoon as a weak onshore flow will develop and one model has a weak NW breeze coming down the Sound by 1500-1600hrs. Just one more thing to watch for on Sunday afternoon.

Tonight, drink a toast to Scott Rohrer, one of the greatest sailors I ever had the privilege to sail with, for, or against.

Have a great weekend!    

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 29, 30, 31, and 1 Apr. Southern Straits underway this morning, Should be a nice weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 29, 30, 31, and 1 Apr. Southern Straits underway this morning, Should be a nice weekend!

We had a bit of rain yesterday however at this point it looks like we’ll end up about 1.6” behind for the month and about 1” behind for the year. The snowpack is still a problem with no relief in sight. So no rain this weekend or next, just a light shower on Wednesday.

WVYC is doing some innovative things for Southern Straits, especially with the ORC Scoring based on actual windspeeds. They are also to be saluted for having the stones to correct faulty PHRF-NW ratings. At least someone is doing something to try and help PHRF-NW and they can get it done in a fraction of the time.

Conditions will be relatively mild over the weekend. There will be some strong onshore flow down the Strait of JdF after that pesky low we’ve had off the coast drifts south and joins a slightly stronger system that will bring more valley rain and mountain snow to California.

The upper-level charts still have the jet stream coming ashore south of San Francisco and that will keep temps in the Salish Sea a little cool, which is fine as that will help preserve what snowpack we have.

Breezes over the central and south Sound will remain light over the weekend except for some spillover from the Straits that will occur Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning. The Strait of Georgia will see some NW breeze Saturday afternoon and that will fill into the north part of the San Juan Islands before easing on Sunday.

Especially this time of the year it’s always a good idea to check the actual windspeeds before you head out and keep a log of those so you can spot potential issues before you leave the dock.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26 March. Last race of CYC Center Sound Series, TTP or Duwamish Head?

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26 March. Last race of CYC Center Sound Series, TTP or Duwamish Head?

As with any transitional weather situation, the models do not agree on when the transition will occur. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give us a nice overview of the current conditions with a weak low-pressure system off the Oregon coast meandering slowly around with a weak frontal system right along the coast. When the front finally passes, a stronger onshore flow will come down the Straits and into the Sound. Models do agree that this will probably occur sometime between late morning and mid-afternoon tomorrow. At least it will be cool with occasional light rain. Luckily, tides will not be much of an issue.

Rain and snowpack continue to be a problem that will probably continue into the late spring and early summer. So far this month we have only had 1.17” which is 1.73” below normal and for the year we are 1.12” below normal. Even with more systems headed our way this week they will be weak and will not do much to increase rainfall totals.

The surface forecast chart for Saturday shows quite a gap in the pressure gradients over the Salish Sea. The weak low off the coast will meander off to the SE allowing a weak ridge of high pressure to develop over the area. This will keep a weak northerly flow over the area through Sunday.

For tomorrow, the question will be which course to send us on. If they send us on the long course to TTP the TP-52’s will be around in about 6 hours with a zone of light air lasting about 1 to 3 hours after a start in 6-9 knts of SE. The J-35’s will be around the course in 7.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 8.5 hours.

When the northerly fills down the Sound it will of course be light to start and then build to 10-15 by mid-afternoon, with one model showing 15-20 knts. This will last until about mid-evening before it starts to ease.

If they send us on the shorter/More sensible mrse, the TP-52’s will take about 3.5 hours, the J-35’s and 105’s about 4.5 hours, and the J-30’s about 5.1 hours. Considering that going south means sailing away from the filling northerly and that means more time in the transition zone on a day with cooler temps and rain, I know which course I would choose. Nothing wrong with getting back to the Club early to swap sea stories.

The preliminary view of South Straits Race looks like it won’t be a barn burner with winds probably averaging 10 knots or less. Not all bad!

Have a great weekend and try to stay dry and warm tomorrow.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for the Ides of March, 16,17, 18 and 19 March, GHYC Islands Race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for the Ides of March, 16,17, 18 and 19 March, GHYC Islands Race.

It’s going to be light!

It’s that feast or famine time of the year for sailboat racing in Putrid Sound. Way too much wind last weekend and not nearly enough this weekend, well at least on Saturday.

The good news is that it is going to be probably the nicest weekend so far this year with the high temp near 70F on both days. The price we’ll pay for this spring break will be light, as in very light, breeze on Saturday with a reasonable southerly filling in on Sunday.

Today’s sat pic, and surface analysis chart show a clear area over the Salish Sea with an impressive low offshore and high pressure inland. This will result in an offshore breeze today however as a ridge builds over the area on Saturday, the pressure gradient will diminish and we’ll be left with light air. This ridge will continue to deflect storms to the north as the jet stream moves way north and comes ashore in BC. We will also have an upper-level high-pressure system centered over the area which will keep temps on the mild side.

We will continue to have a relatively mild week with the next chance of rain occurring towards the end of the week. Even then it won’t amount to much in the old rain gauge.

Enjoy the weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 March. Center Sound Race #2  Scatchet Head Race. Looks breezy for yet another weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 March. Center Sound Race #2  Scatchet Head Race. Looks breezy for yet another weekend!

Hard as it may be to believe, we will have wind once again for the weekend and for the upcoming week as several systems will march right on through the Pacific NW. Also interesting is that all five models are pretty much in agreement. The differences are about how much wind we’ll have and when the cold front will pass over us tomorrow. We are still about .5” of rain behind for the month however tomorrow and this week could change that and help the snowpack in our mountains which is still behind. Dress warmly and stay dry.

Today’s surface analysis charts show an unrelenting group of lows with attached frontal systems off our coast and headed our way. California will still get most of the rain and snow however we will begin to get close to our seasonal norm which is all good, unless you live in California. The Pacific High, because it remains weak, has been pushed off to the south while the slightly stronger High east of the Cascades will push systems into BC and SE Alaska. The Upper-Level charts show a meridional flow off the coast for today with the jet stream coming ashore mid-Oregon. As the week goes on, this flow will become more zonal with the jet stream drifting to the south and coming ashore mid-California. This will keep temps cool in the PacNW and help preserve what snowpack we have.

The consistent feature in the Surface charts is the bunching of isobars over the Pacific NW and this pressure gradient won’t ease until Wednesday. That’s why we can expect 12-25 knots of SSE for the start tomorrow and that will build to 20-30 knots midday with higher gusts. The question is when will the cold front go through because that is when the breeze will start to clock from SSE to SSW to SW. By late afternoon the gradient should start to ease, however I think the fleet will have finished by then.

Tides should not be an issue as slack at Scatchet Head should be around 1100 hrs however with the consistent southerly flow over the Sound and freshwater coming out of the Snohomish River, flowing out of Possession Sound, and across Scatchet Head, the ebb at Scatchet Head may last another 45-60 minutes. Remember also that the current and wind will build as you approach the mark so figure that into your rounding strategy.

After the mark, if the ebb is still flowing at the mark it will pay to hold port tack to get south and away from the ebb before you tack to starboard. This will get you towards the Edmonds shore and the remainder of the ebb flowing south towards the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The water will also be flatter along that shore. Remember also how shallow it gets from Edwards Point to the oil docks.

The question with frontal passage and the start of the flood tide is whether it would be worthwhile to hold port tack at the mark and go across to the west side of the Sound. The flood does start first on that shore, however I think everyone will be around the mark and well on the way to the finish before the flood gets that far south. So, it would be extra miles to sail to get over there and if the wind doesn’t come around to the SW until later, it could be painful coming back across the Sound from Jeff Head. Something to watch.

As you get beat south of Richmond Beach you will want to watch if boats that hold out to the west start gaining as the breeze starts to clock from the S to the SSW and the SW. Plan your approach to the finish accordingly. This may change depending upon how close the committee boat is to Meadow Point because there could still be southeasterly, port tack lifts along the shore north of Meadow Point.  

I have the TP-52’s around in three hours. The J-105’s and J-35’s in 4.25 hours and the J-30 around in 4.75 hrs.

So for tomorrow, safety first, life jackets and safety harnesses before you leave the dock, and maybe a discussion about your person overboard procedures.

Have a safe, fun, and fast race. Also, don’t forget to Spring Forward Saturday night. 😊

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 1, 2, 3, and 4 March. CYC Center Sound Blakely Rock Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 1, 2, 3, and 4 March. CYC Center Sound Blakely Rock Race

What a way to start Center Sound Series! At least the models are pretty much in agreement, we’re going to have wind and rain mixed with snow. Much better than drifting in the rain and cold.

For the month, we are only about .2” below normal rainfall; for the year, we are .35” above normal. It appears that this trend will continue into the rest of the month and with the jet stream remaining well to the south, our snowpack should remain intact. Then there’s the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada which could gain 10’+ feet just this weekend. Plus, if you look at the sea surface temp anomaly chart you should note the very high anomaly off the West Coast of Africa which is where hurricanes are born. The temps in this area are much higher than normal and could indicate an early start to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic. It should also be noted that the same is true of the area off the Pacific Coast of Panama and Central America where Pacific hurricanes are formed. The good news for Hawaii is that band of cooler than normal water just to the east of the Islands. This was in place last summer and served to break up approaching hurricanes. This is going to be a very interesting summer, but let’s not look too far ahead.

Our active winter is going to continue and that is going to make for a quick but cold Blakely Rock Race. We have a large trough of low-pressure over the area with four low-pressure systems just offshore roughly aimed our way. This will keep a southerly flow over the area all weekend, especially over the race course on Saturday. The day will start with 10-12knts of southerly that will build over the day and could reach 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon, especially in the north part of the race course and waters from Kingston north to the San Juan Islands. By late afternoon a stronger onshore flow will come down the Strait of JdF bringing gale force westerlies to the eastern part of the Straits.  

Tidal current will not be much of an issue on Saturday and with the amount of rain we’ve had this week combined with a predominately southerly wind flow, expect a wind-driven surface current to be flowing to the north all day on Saturday, especially near West Point. Look for the muddy-colored water which will mark the outflow from the Duwamish as it bends around West Point. Current will be slightly stronger near West Point but ease as you go across the Sound.

Tactics should be fairly straightforward with the usual local geographic effects. The start/finish line will probably be slightly offshore from Shilshole to the south west from Meadow Point. You’d like a clear air start with a clear lane to hold starboard tack off the start line heading toward the breakwater. You should be headed as you get closer to the breakwater, just don’t sail out of the breeze. Once you tack to port there will be lifting puffs as you work towards West Point. If you get headed and find yourself in a strong ebb, tack back into the beach so that when you tack back to port you are close to West Point. Once you pass WP, hold port tack to get across the Sound. As you go across the Sound there should be a slight header as you get to the west side of the Sound. When you tack to starboard there should be lifting puffs on starboard as you work your way south to the Rock.  

If there were starboard tack lifting puffs prepare for a port pole set at the Rock and carry that to just north of Winslow where you should get a slight lift that will allow you to gybe and probably be aimed pretty close to the top mark which remember is 1.5 miles to the east of the VTS Buoy. As you’re sailing north check the finish line to see if there’s a favored end.

Remember that the wind will probably build as you are running to the north and if you carried the #1 to the Rock you may want to consider a change to the #3 well in advance of rounding. Once you start on the wind it will pay to hold starboard and get close to the east side of the Sound before tacking as there should be port tack lifting puffs along that shore and you will be in smoother water.

The approach to the finish could be interesting if they position the finish well away from the shore. This could mean the line is in more of a SW breeze. Watch the boats ahead to see if there is a favored tack to the finish.

The TP-52s should be around the course in about 3.5 hours. The J-35s and J-105s should take about 4.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 4.9 hours.

Have a safe and great race and remember that the wind chill will be around freezing. Don’t let anyone get cold. Lifejackets on everyone and if there’s any question, clip into the jacklines.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, and 26 Feb. Nice wx today and tomorrow, just don’t get used to it.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, and 26 Feb. Nice wx today and tomorrow, just don’t get used to it.

If this relatively nice weather has you thinking about getting out on the water and maybe having a practice day before the start of Center Sound next weekend, Saturday will be the day. If, on the other hand, you want a heavy weather practice day, Sunday will work. Then it will return to rain, wind, and coolish temps for all of next week.  

The charts for today and tomorrow show an interesting layout for the weather this weekend with weak low-pressure systems to the north and south of us. Offshore, the Pacific High remains unusually stable at 1038MB at 42N 152W with weaker high-pressure on the east side of the Cascades. Today’s sat pic shows the stronger low-pressure system with its front as the classic comma shape off the central California Coast. The higher resolution sat  pic shows very little cloud cover over the Salish Sea and that will hold for tomorrow.

For Saturday this configuration of highs and lows will create a strong onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF and through the Chehalis Gap. This will result in a nice southerly flow of 10-20 knots over the Central and South Sound, extending north into Admiralty Inlet and the San Juan Islands. Over the day on Saturday the flow down the Strait will become the dominant feature and flow through the Chehalis Gap will ease. By late afternoon and into the early evening Saturday the SW breeze in the Straits will build and extend into San Juans. This will bring a lighter breeze to the Sound and Admiralty Inlet.

On Sunday the 995MB low with attached frontal system over Haida Gwaii will drift slowly to SE and aim for the Salish Sea. This will have the effect of increasing the NW flow down the Strait of JdF and through the Chehalis Gap. By mid-morning expect 15-25 knots of westerly in the Straits, and 10-20 knots of southerly in the Central and South Sound. YES, even in Olympia. 😊

By mid-afternoon on Sunday, the flow down the Straits will increase to 25-35 knots while flow in the Central and South Sound will increase to 15-25 knots. Yes, even in Olympia. The other interesting feature of this will be that the convergence zone in the North and Central Sound will be very small and relatively fast-moving as it comes down the Sound. After dark in the North Sound and Admiralty Inlet expect 25-35 knots of NNW.

Oh yeah, there will also be rain on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, etc etc. Right now we are about an inch behind for the month but that may change by the end of the month.

Have a great weekend!      

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race.

This weekend’s weather will be very similar to last weekend with the surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and 500MB Chart all providing insight into what will be happening around us.  We have a large area of low pressure (975MB) just off the coast with a secondary center (984MB) still just off the Aleutians with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians southeasterly to just off of San Francisco before curving off to the southwest to the Hawaiian Islands. Notice also the tightly packed pressure gradient between the low off of our coast and the high-pressure system (1039MB) centered inland over lower BC, a whopping 64MB difference. The high wind warning chart from NWS Seattle shows the easterly flow through the gaps in the Cascades with the highest winds of 40-60mph (not knots) in the areas east of Tacoma near Snoqualmie Pass, and Enumclaw.  Everybody in Olympia is rubbing their hands in anticipation of this extending into tomorrow. Unfortunately, it won’t.

The current wind speeds show this easterly flow is taking the usual path of least resistance out to the Pacific Ocean with 34 knots reported at Crystal Pass, Cape Elizabeth, the mouth of the Straits, and La Perouse Bank, 29 knots at Westport, Crystal Mountain, and Race Rocks, and only 4 knots at Olympia. Bummer. The problem will be that as this weakening cold front that is over us moves to the east, the ridge of high pressure will rebuild on the east side of the Cascades. As usual, the best wind will be in the 12 hours following frontal passage. After that, in the absence of another strong front, the pressure gradient will ease. The SE breeze will hold along the coast and in the Strait of JdF as the front stalls along the coast. The pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend.

For Toliva Shoal it will be mostly a light air drifter as you drag race from hole to hole. The wind will start as a 2-4 knot northerly in Budd Inlet, and then shift to a northeasterly in Dana Passage. By the afternoon the wind will shift to the SW in the Nisqually Reach but remain in the 2-4 knot range. By late afternoon expect a weak northerly at Toliva Shoal. Luckily tides will 1 knot or less. By early evening the breeze will continue to ease, luckily very smart people are running this race and they know when and where to shorten the course. Plus, the post-race at OYC is always a great time.

Have a great weekend!