What a way to start Center Sound Series! At least the models are pretty much in agreement, we’re going to have wind and rain mixed with snow. Much better than drifting in the rain and cold.
For the month, we are only about .2” below normal rainfall; for the year, we are .35” above normal. It appears that this trend will continue into the rest of the month and with the jet stream remaining well to the south, our snowpack should remain intact. Then there’s the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada which could gain 10’+ feet just this weekend. Plus, if you look at the sea surface temp anomaly chart you should note the very high anomaly off the West Coast of Africa which is where hurricanes are born. The temps in this area are much higher than normal and could indicate an early start to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic. It should also be noted that the same is true of the area off the Pacific Coast of Panama and Central America where Pacific hurricanes are formed. The good news for Hawaii is that band of cooler than normal water just to the east of the Islands. This was in place last summer and served to break up approaching hurricanes. This is going to be a very interesting summer, but let’s not look too far ahead.
Our active winter is going to continue and that is going to make for a quick but cold Blakely Rock Race. We have a large trough of low-pressure over the area with four low-pressure systems just offshore roughly aimed our way. This will keep a southerly flow over the area all weekend, especially over the race course on Saturday. The day will start with 10-12knts of southerly that will build over the day and could reach 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon, especially in the north part of the race course and waters from Kingston north to the San Juan Islands. By late afternoon a stronger onshore flow will come down the Strait of JdF bringing gale force westerlies to the eastern part of the Straits.
Tidal current will not be much of an issue on Saturday and with the amount of rain we’ve had this week combined with a predominately southerly wind flow, expect a wind-driven surface current to be flowing to the north all day on Saturday, especially near West Point. Look for the muddy-colored water which will mark the outflow from the Duwamish as it bends around West Point. Current will be slightly stronger near West Point but ease as you go across the Sound.
Tactics should be fairly straightforward with the usual local geographic effects. The start/finish line will probably be slightly offshore from Shilshole to the south west from Meadow Point. You’d like a clear air start with a clear lane to hold starboard tack off the start line heading toward the breakwater. You should be headed as you get closer to the breakwater, just don’t sail out of the breeze. Once you tack to port there will be lifting puffs as you work towards West Point. If you get headed and find yourself in a strong ebb, tack back into the beach so that when you tack back to port you are close to West Point. Once you pass WP, hold port tack to get across the Sound. As you go across the Sound there should be a slight header as you get to the west side of the Sound. When you tack to starboard there should be lifting puffs on starboard as you work your way south to the Rock.
If there were starboard tack lifting puffs prepare for a port pole set at the Rock and carry that to just north of Winslow where you should get a slight lift that will allow you to gybe and probably be aimed pretty close to the top mark which remember is 1.5 miles to the east of the VTS Buoy. As you’re sailing north check the finish line to see if there’s a favored end.
Remember that the wind will probably build as you are running to the north and if you carried the #1 to the Rock you may want to consider a change to the #3 well in advance of rounding. Once you start on the wind it will pay to hold starboard and get close to the east side of the Sound before tacking as there should be port tack lifting puffs along that shore and you will be in smoother water.
The approach to the finish could be interesting if they position the finish well away from the shore. This could mean the line is in more of a SW breeze. Watch the boats ahead to see if there is a favored tack to the finish.
The TP-52s should be around the course in about 3.5 hours. The J-35s and J-105s should take about 4.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 4.9 hours.
Have a safe and great race and remember that the wind chill will be around freezing. Don’t let anyone get cold. Lifejackets on everyone and if there’s any question, clip into the jacklines.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
