As we projected, December was wetter than normal but not enough to bring the yearly average up to normal. We finished December with 8.48” inches of rain in the gauge compared to an average of 5.72”. For the year we finished with 34.97” compared to an average of 39.34”. While it’s still early in the month we are now about .35” behind for the month, and that could all change this coming week.
Right now, 1500hrs, we are still in a pre-frontal situation with the barometer falling rapidly in all locations in the Salish Sea and windspeeds continuing to increase into the 20s and low 30-knot range. You can see this on today’s sat pic and surface analysis chart. The low associated with this front is centered to the west of Ketchikan, while we have a lobe of a moderately strong high-pressure system (1033MB) just to the south of us associated with a 1036MB high about ½ way between Hawaii and San Francisco. As the front passes over us, this configuration will give us a strong NW surface flow over the area which will last through the weekend until another front arrives late on Sunday bringing more rain and wind to the area.
The problem with this NW flow over the area will be that the wind will come down the Straits with gale warnings and small craft advisories. It will also flow weakly through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound with this area being in the lee of the Olympics. Somewhere these winds will have to meet in a classic Putrid Sound Convergence zone.
For the Duwamish Head Race, it appears that we’ll have a nice SW wind of 6-11 knots for the start and this will hold with the SW building to 12-13 knots near midday as the fleet approaches Alki. After that, the SW will ease to 4-6 knots by mid-afternoon, and by about 1600hrs the SW will be down to 2-5 knots over the race course. At around 1600 hrs a weak northerly may fill down as far as Fauntleroy, but it won’t go much further. The SW will tend to last longer and stay stronger to the west of the rhumbline from Restoration Pt to Three Tree Pt. By 1800 hrs the SW will start to slowly rebuild to 5-8 knots until 20-2100 hrs when another blast of NW (10-12 knts) will fill down the Sound to maybe as far as Tacoma.
This will be a case where tacticians will want to be logging wind strengths and directions starting tonight so you can track what will be headed your way and maybe when the changes will arrive. You will also want to keep your head out of the boat to watch what is going on ahead and behind you. For the beat/close reach from Restoration to the finish, you will want to have those barber haulers ready and be aggressive about using them as it gets reachy. It will also help to keep you warm. 😊
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Here it is the 6th of January and we are almost 1” behind the average rainfall for this date and almost 2” behind where we were a year ago. Looking at the upcoming weather this will probably not change over the next week as we will have warmer than normal temps with scattered rain.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show yet another impressive set of low-pressure systems off of our coast with more lurking. The problem for the Duwamish Head Race will be that these lows and attached frontal systems will be directed either due north, paralleling the coast, or even off to the NNW. This will keep the wind at 5-12 knots from the E-SE in the morning before the gradient eases as the front moves offshore. By about midday, the breeze will ease to about 5 knots and become variable. Plan to finish before mid-afternoon when the Sound will glass off from Alki to South of Des Moines. Luckily, tidal currents will not be much of an issue.
Also of interest today is the 48hr surface forecast chart which shows two lows combining off the California coast and a third low-pressure system in the western Pacific that is forecast to undergo bombogenesis as it intensifies from 989MB to 963MB.
The 500MB charts also are not changing much with the jet stream maintaining its zonal flow across the Pacific and coming ashore in Southern California.
As these fronts continue to pass offshore the coastal waters will continue to experience occasional strong breezes and high seas.
For the race at least it will be a relatively warm rain in light air.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As you may have guessed, we are now ahead for the year in
rainfall by about ¾ of an inch and snow is finally starting to pile up in the
mountains. All good, now what about Duwamish Head? The answer is that it should
have been run last Saturday when we had breeze all day from the SW. Tomorrow
will be, as they say, interesting.
Today’s surface chart shows us a very active and interesting weather picture. The most interesting feature is that low-pressure system off of our coast with two centers and quite an array of frontal systems all aimed right at the Pacific Northwest. The first of these strong frontal systems is going over us as this is written it will be followed by a strong onshore flow starting in the Straits tonight and then coming through the Chehalis Gap early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow’s surface forecast chart has the low-pressure center right over the Salish Sea. Sunday will see the arrival of yet another active frontal system after which high pressure will fill down from the Canadian interior bringing with it a strong Fraser outflow. This will also bring the coldest temperatures we’ve seen in quite a while early next week.
Jan 10 500 MB
Jan 10 Surface Analysis
Jan 11 Surface Forecast
Jan 12 500 MB
Jan 12 Surface Forecast
Jan 13 Surface Forecast
Jan 14 Surface Forecast
The Duwamish Head Race will be interesting because there
will be plenty of wind in the Straits that will try to fill down the Sound.
Unfortunately, the onshore flow coming through the Chehalis Gap will then swing
to the north and these two competing winds will have to meet somewhere and that
will be right over the racecourse. So there will be wind, maybe as much as 20
knots from the south for a short period of time and then the wind will come
from all sorts of directions. That will
keep things interesting, it will also keep tacticians busy and foredeck crews cursing
about yet another sail change. At least it won’t be snowing, yet….
Tidal currents won’t be much of an issue and with any kind
of wind could be favorable.
Tidal Current at
Alki
0848 Max Ebb .61 knots
1218 Slack
1436 Max Flood .53 knots
1636 Slack
2030 Max ebb .87 knots
This would be a great weekend to check those mooring lines,
open all the locker doors where there are thru-hulls and make sure there is
some type of heat on the boat to keep those from freezing. Remember also that
with all the rain we’ve had even if your marina is in saltwater there will be a
layer of fresh water from runoff on top of the saltwater and that can freeze.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
If you were lucky enough to read Bruce’s weather brief for the Duwamish Head race, you weren’t caught by surprise by Saturday’s drifter. Like the Seahawks’ playoff game later that day, it was a bit of a disappointment.
Jan Anderson’s pictures below tell the story of the start in very light wind. The pace continued along the Des Moines and West Seattle shores, with the light air enthusiasts (there are those) definitely enjoying the day.
The course was shortened with the finish at Duwamish Head. And there were plenty of finishers and definitely some close corrected times. Crossfire, Dark Star and Ocelot got away from the fleet and took the top spots in PHRF 2 and overall. Results here
Nigel Barron of Crossfire and CSR was lucky enough to be sailing under the tallest rig. His take: “There was enough to keep us moving (having a really tall mast doesn’t hurt). If you read Bruce’s Brief, you would have found it alarmingly and disappointingly accurate. We started in a light southerly on the A1.5, and around Brace Point went to a jib in a 4-6 kt northerly. We carried that until Alki, where we went back to the A1.5 to get to Duwamish Head, where mercifully and wisely the race committee has opted to shorten course. With our elapsed time around 4 hours, we were home in time for the game, and before the rain!
Jan Anderson was on hand to get the following photos. (click to enlarge) Check out her Duwamish photo album to see the rest – and order!
Mark Harang’s Nimbus ghosting to victory.
Sidewinder showing the Olson 30 light air prowess.
The fleet.
Painted ships upon a painted ocean.
Jonathan McKee’s Dark Star.
Ocelot leading the charge.
Sean Trew’s drone photography and video work definitely provide another perspective on sailing in our waters. Here are a couple of his videos, one of a start and one of Dark Star, with the Bieker design gliding along in nearly flat water.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
As they will be saying on the docks before Three Tree Point’s Duwamish Head Race at Des Moines tomorrow morning, “You should have been here yesterday.” Plenty of breeze this morning, however, the front has passed, the post-frontal onshore flow has set in and as the gradient eases this afternoon, the breeze will begin to drop. By tomorrow morning we should start to see a weak offshore flow develop which will bring light air to the central Sound. This will bring a mix-master of different winds as we wait for the next front to come onshore Sunday. The problem will once again be that as these fronts hit the coastal buffer zone, they can slow which may allow the onshore flow to stay longer. Maybe even leaving us with a weak northerly in the morning.
Luckily the tides won’t
be much of a factor.
Tidal Current at Alki:
0942 Max Ebb .3 knts
1230 Slack
1354 Max Flood .16 knts
1606 Slack
2112 Max Ebb .64 knts
Tactics for this race
will be tough so always go back to basics.
Know the rhumbline, watch COG and SOG,
don’t get too far off the rhumbline and watch
the smart guys in the fleet. There will be plenty holes to fall into, so watch
what is happening around you so be aggressive trimming and shifting gears. When
it gets really light, don’t let too much weight accumulate in the cockpit and
don’t hesitate to put the dogs in the house. Just keep them happy, well-informed,
well-fed and well-hydrated….
January 4 Surface Analysis
January 5 500MB
January 5 Surface Forecast 2019
January 6 Surface Forecast
January 7 500MB
January 7 Surface Forecast
January 8 Surface Forecast
The
other thing to remember is to not be lulled into complacency by the light air.
Sometime Saturday evening this front will come onshore and bring plenty of
breeze with it. By late Saturday night and into early Sunday we could have
35-40 knots of southerly. This will ease to 25 knots by early Sunday morning
The
surface charts for this weekend show a very interesting pattern, especially the
one for tomorrow morning which shows a compact low-pressure system (982MB)off
the California coast headed almost due north along the coast. Plenty of tightly
wound isobars which usually means plenty of wind. Again, that all depends on
the timing of the arrival and how much the coastal buffer zone will degrade the
front.
Click to enlarge wind speed vs. pressure at West Point
As has
been the case this winner, the 72 and 96-hour charts are very interesting
showing the formation of yet another deep low (974MB) off the coast with that
note Developing Hurricane Force. Right now it is headed right at us and could
be a factor late next week.
Notice
also the 72-hour 500MB chart which shows a flattening out of the jet stream
which will continue to bring warm and wet conditions to the Pacific Northwest.
Those of you watching Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly charts will also recognize
that these two features are indicative of an El Niño so don’t be surprised if
the NWS declares one this week. Oh wait a minute, the NWS is closed. Oh well,
weather just isn’t that important to some folks. Kurt is kicking me under the
table and telling me to get back to the weather.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It was an auspicious start to racing in 2018. Three Tree Point YC’s Duwamish Head Race, which has had it’s weather/finishing/shortened difficulties over the years came through with a fine day of racing last Saturday. It was a fast race, especially for the big boats, but there wasn’t a lot of a maneuvering and a limited number of tactical decisions to be made.
A strong current was pushing boats over the line, but soon the fleet was flying along the West Seattle waterfront beaches. The boats gave the Saturday morning walkers at Alki a bit of show as they headed to, and then from, the Duwamish Head Light. A medium air reach across Puget Sound was straightforward.
After rounding Blakely Rock, the larger boats that managed to stay west enjoyed a more westerly angle and came into the finish without tacking. Any of those that footed off found they needed to tack up around Three Tree Point Point. Many of the later, smaller boats had more of a beat.
The fast race combined with the time on distance scoring skewed some of the results, with the advantage going to the slower-rated boats. Keep reading to get a report from Image in the middle of the fleet. Results here.
Here are some of Jan Anderson’s photos. See more and buy them here.
Madam Pele
Darkside
The chaos of the start.
More chaos including McSwoosh losing a tack line.
Crossfire leaving Rainier in the distance.
Class 3 winner Equus.
Mist
The newest (and oldest) of the Northwest’s three-boat TP 52 “fleet” is Steve Johnson’s Mist (formerly Braveheart and Valkyrie). Johnson put many miles under his old White Cloud‘s keel, and wanted a new challenge. A TP 52 is certainly that.
The Duwamish Head race was part of that learning curve. Mist was over early at the start (“I’m not used to a boat jumping up to 12 knots that fast,” Johnson explained) and then had to chase Crossfire around the course the rest of the way. And the way the time on distance handicaps worked out both boats found themselves down in the standings.
At this point in the Mist program, that hardly matters. “Sooner or later we’ll learn how to sail it to its rating,” Johnson says. Right now he’s still adjusting to the TP52 speeds. One of the adjustments is the challenge for driving the beast – it demands laser-focus. As Johnson puts it, “there’s not a lot of forgiveness.” Another adjustment Johnson has to make is the flat out speed. “It changes your perception of how big Puget Sound is.” Indeed.
The team, basically the same White Cloud crew with some additions, is learning jib trim with the in-hauler set as close as 5° off center line, which is about 2 degrees less than White Cloud. The current crop of TPs on the Mediterranean are set at about 4.5 degrees.
One of the more interesting aspects of a TP52 program is access to sails. Johnson hopes to set up “a relationship” with a Med TP program to have access to their “old” sails that might have as little as a few short hours of use. Mist‘s inventory was already pretty good thanks to one of those relationships with Sled.
Mist is in relatively good condition, but there have been some annoying breakdowns including a broken outhaul in Round the County. Built as a late first-generation/early second-generation TP52 as Braveheart, the stout boat was built for ocean racing with ring frames and a sturdy rig. But as with any boat, there’s maintenance and modifications to be made. One of the first things on Johnson’s list is to set the galley up with a foot pump to fill water bottles from the water tank, as opposed to lugging aboard (and disposing of) water bottled in plastic. Environmentalism is in, folks.
Currently the long range plan is to do the usual Northwest races with an eye toward the Van Isle 360 in a year and a half.
Image
Alert reader Marc-Andrea Klimaschewski chimed in with his own Duwamish Head Story, specifically PHRF-7. Sounds like the class had a close race and there was a happy crew aboard Image. Here’s Marc:
PHRF-7 had a fantastic race last weekend. Having 6 boats with similar ratings out gave the Image crew a really nice benchmark and allowed us get a good read on our boat speed.
After a port tack approach to the start line we held a position to windward of the fleet, reaching a little longer with the #3 jib up. We were the last boat to set our spinnaker which allowed the J/29s to pull away but we managed to stay close to Les Chevaux Blacs and Folie a Deux. Once we were certain we could lay Alki beach the kite came up and we had a nice reach down. About a third of the way to Alki, Absolutely and a bit later String Theory passed us to windward and we got a good look at Crossfire flying towards Alki. With the wind moving slightly more behind us, we moved the our A-kite from being bow tacked to the spinnaker pole and squared it back a little which required us to set up the reaching strut – that’s the fun of being the old school boat in the fleet. At Alki Pt, we were a tad late to jibe towards the Duwamish head mark (partially due to our pole magic) which cost us some precious boat lengths and moved us back to last place in the fleet.
After ducking the yellow trimaran Ruf Duck the broad reach towards the Duwamish head mark went without a hitch. We were a little late getting the #1 on deck and set up so we had to round the mark bald headed which got us stuck in dirty air. As soon as we noticed we would not be able to lay Blakely Rock, we did two tacks putting us to windward of the rear end of the fleet which really helped with boat speed. We reached Blakely Rock together with Folie a Deux, tacked to starboard right with them and a 20 minute drag race ensued. We managed to sail slightly higher and slightly faster than them, eventually passing them and forcing them to foot toward the middle of the course to find clear air. Shortly after this, we had a prime spot for watching the orca pod (ed. note – how cool is that?!) that was moving north.
We needed to put in two additional tacks before the finish line, probably due to the wind dying down temporarily but spirits were high, especially when we sighted Les Chevaux Blancs and Folie a Deux behind us.
All in all, the entire crew of Image enjoyed the race a whole lot. After spending more than two years building crew and skills as well as slowly converting the boat from a full on cruising boat (featuring her original 1982 sails) it seemed like to work was paying off and we got some good boat on boat action.
It’s absolutely great that readers chime in from all parts of the fleet, in particular from older boats that are enjoying the racing every bit as much as the boats with 5-degree sheeting angles! Keep sending your stories, videos and photos and I’ll keep posting them.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
While we were all digesting our figgy pudding, the boys Down Under were, as usual, spending their Boxing Day racing from Sydney to Hobart. There are plenty of accounts and footage of the race. The biggest “moment” in the race came after the start. The video below should open at that moment (but you can start the video at an earlier spot if you want to watch the whole start). Here Wild Oats (aka WOXI) is on port and Comanche is on starboard. The ensuing protest saw WOXI penalized an hour and her line honors passed to Comanche.
Fewer of you may have seen the following footage taken onboard Comanche on day 2. It shows boatspeed (yawn-30 knots) and course. Be sure to go full screen with this video and use your cursor to pan around. It’s not quite reality but it’s the closest thing a lot of us are going to get to 30 knots on Comanche.
NOTE: Bruce Hedrick will put on his swami hat and gaze into his crystal weather ball on Friday with a post for the Duwamish Head race! I’m really hoping one or more of you alert readers comes up with a Wet Wednesday video from an exciting Duwamish race. (Hopefully it’s wet from below and not above) If you’ve got something, just email me.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
