As we projected, December was wetter than normal but not enough to bring the yearly average up to normal. We finished December with 8.48” inches of rain in the gauge compared to an average of 5.72”. For the year we finished with 34.97” compared to an average of 39.34”. While it’s still early in the month we are now about .35” behind for the month, and that could all change this coming week.
Right now, 1500hrs, we are still in a pre-frontal situation with the barometer falling rapidly in all locations in the Salish Sea and windspeeds continuing to increase into the 20s and low 30-knot range. You can see this on today’s sat pic and surface analysis chart. The low associated with this front is centered to the west of Ketchikan, while we have a lobe of a moderately strong high-pressure system (1033MB) just to the south of us associated with a 1036MB high about ½ way between Hawaii and San Francisco. As the front passes over us, this configuration will give us a strong NW surface flow over the area which will last through the weekend until another front arrives late on Sunday bringing more rain and wind to the area.
The problem with this NW flow over the area will be that the wind will come down the Straits with gale warnings and small craft advisories. It will also flow weakly through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound with this area being in the lee of the Olympics. Somewhere these winds will have to meet in a classic Putrid Sound Convergence zone.
For the Duwamish Head Race, it appears that we’ll have a nice SW wind of 6-11 knots for the start and this will hold with the SW building to 12-13 knots near midday as the fleet approaches Alki. After that, the SW will ease to 4-6 knots by mid-afternoon, and by about 1600hrs the SW will be down to 2-5 knots over the race course. At around 1600 hrs a weak northerly may fill down as far as Fauntleroy, but it won’t go much further. The SW will tend to last longer and stay stronger to the west of the rhumbline from Restoration Pt to Three Tree Pt. By 1800 hrs the SW will start to slowly rebuild to 5-8 knots until 20-2100 hrs when another blast of NW (10-12 knts) will fill down the Sound to maybe as far as Tacoma.
This will be a case where tacticians will want to be logging wind strengths and directions starting tonight so you can track what will be headed your way and maybe when the changes will arrive. You will also want to keep your head out of the boat to watch what is going on ahead and behind you. For the beat/close reach from Restoration to the finish, you will want to have those barber haulers ready and be aggressive about using them as it gets reachy. It will also help to keep you warm. 😊
Have a great race, stay warm, and stay safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)