Toliva Shoal Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race.

This weekend’s weather will be very similar to last weekend with the surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and 500MB Chart all providing insight into what will be happening around us.  We have a large area of low pressure (975MB) just off the coast with a secondary center (984MB) still just off the Aleutians with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians southeasterly to just off of San Francisco before curving off to the southwest to the Hawaiian Islands. Notice also the tightly packed pressure gradient between the low off of our coast and the high-pressure system (1039MB) centered inland over lower BC, a whopping 64MB difference. The high wind warning chart from NWS Seattle shows the easterly flow through the gaps in the Cascades with the highest winds of 40-60mph (not knots) in the areas east of Tacoma near Snoqualmie Pass, and Enumclaw.  Everybody in Olympia is rubbing their hands in anticipation of this extending into tomorrow. Unfortunately, it won’t.

February 16 500 Mb
February 16 Surface Analysis
February 17 Surface Forecast
February 18 500 MB
February 18 Surface Forecast
February 19 Surface Forecast
February 20 500 MB
February 20 Surface Forecast

The current wind speeds show this easterly flow is taking the usual path of least resistance out to the Pacific Ocean with 34 knots reported at Crystal Pass, Cape Elizabeth, the mouth of the Straits, and La Perouse Bank, 29 knots at Westport, Crystal Mountain, and Race Rocks, and only 4 knots at Olympia. Bummer. The problem will be that as this weakening cold front that is over us moves to the east, the ridge of high pressure will rebuild on the east side of the Cascades. As usual, the best wind will be in the 12 hours following frontal passage. After that, in the absence of another strong front, the pressure gradient will ease. The SE breeze will hold along the coast and in the Strait of JdF as the front stalls along the coast. The pressure gradient will continue to ease over the weekend.

For Toliva Shoal it will be mostly a light air drifter as you drag race from hole to hole. The wind will start as a 2-4 knot northerly in Budd Inlet, and then shift to a northeasterly in Dana Passage. By the afternoon the wind will shift to the SW in the Nisqually Reach but remain in the 2-4 knot range. By late afternoon expect a weak northerly at Toliva Shoal. Luckily tides will 1 knot or less. By early evening the breeze will continue to ease, luckily very smart people are running this race and they know when and where to shorten the course. Plus, the post-race at OYC is always a great time.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race and it looks like a very interesting one!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs , 0 Comment

As I said in my Wednesday night presentation to the OYC and SSSS, I expected conditions to change just because of the lack of movement of systems and the amorphous behavior of the systems over the Pacific NW. Today’s surface analysis chart shows high-pressure systems to the north and south of us with low-pressure systems to the east and west of us. By tomorrow morning we’ll simply have a weak (1018MB) low pressure offshore with an attached cold front. As this system comes onshore it will weaken and a strong post-frontal onshore flow will develop along the coast bringing a 20-25 knot NW breeze. There will also be a nice flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound in the morning and early afternoon. There will also be a nice flow down the Strait of JdF and then into the Central and South Sound. This is how things will get interesting for Toliva Shoal. The other caveat here is that none of the models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow.

February 17 Surface Analysis
February 18 Surface Forecast
February 19 500 MB
Februaru 19 Surface Forecast
February20 Surface Forecast
February 21 500 MB
February 21 Surface Forecast

By the 19th of Feb we’ll have a nice and round Pacific High which would be great if we getting ready for Hawaii however this time of the year it will simply serve to deflect storm systems away from us. The really interesting chart is the 96hr (21 Feb) surface forecast. The Pacific High has deepened to 1046MB and moved into the Gulf of Alaska while two weak low-pressure systems remain over the Salish Sea, This will bring yet another cold snap to our area as well as a chance of lowland snow. Luckily, all we may get for Toliva is some light rain.

18-Feb-1000hrs-UW-MM5
18-Feb-1300hrs-UW-MM5
18-Feb-1900hrs-UW-MM5
18-Feb-2100hrs-UW-MM5

So how does all this breakdown for the race? The good news is that we’ll have wind for the start and a pretty favorable wind direction and wind strength all the way to Toliva Shoal. After Toliva, just as we go to the big ebb of the day, the wind will start to shift to the west and drop in speed. Here’s how it will break down.

1000 start SSW wind 8-15 knots. Downwind start!

1100-1200 Breeze holds from the SSW at 8-15 knots.

1200 A slightly stronger flow develops through the Chehalis Gap 10-18 knots of SW breeze from Johnson Pt to Toliva Shoal.

1300 SW 10-15 Anderson Isl to Toliva, Balch Passage to Devils Head becoming W to 10 knots Johnson Pt to Cooper Pt.

Navigators will want to start plotting wind direction and wind strength down the Strait of JdF, down Admiralty Inlet, and down the Sound as the onshore flow builds. This will weaken the flow through the Chehalis Gap.

1400 Wind Westerly 8-12 knots over the course.

1500 Wind westerly easing to 5-10 knots.

1600 Wind ENE 3-8 knots Toliva and Balch Passage. Wind westerly 4-8 knots Dana Passage to Finish. Convergence zone developing  Balch to Johnson Pt.

1700 Wind ENE 3-6 knots Toliva to Devils H. Wind Westerly 3-6 knots Dana Pass to finish

1800-Time Limit: Wind light and variable over the course

Here’s where we roll the dice and break out the Meadow Point Marine/Sailish.Com Dart Board.

Who will finish and when:

Boat                            Toliva Shoal                            Finish

Riptide                        1320hrs                                   2330hrs

J-133                           1340hrs                                   2340hrs

J-120                           1353hrs                                   0313hrs Sunday

J-35                             1511hrs                                   0420hrs Sunday

White Squall               1600hrs                                   0530hrs Sunday

One forecast that is always 100% accurate is that the hospitality at OYC before and after the race will, as always, be exceptional. After the race, while the wind may be light on the race course, there will be plenty of hot air inside the clubhouse. 😊

For the delivery home on Sunday, the breeze will once again be from the south at 5-10 from 0700hrs and slowly build from that direction all day. By Sunday afternoon expect 15-20 knots from the south.

Over the weekend, the strongest breeze will be in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands.

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, and 15 Feb. Toliva Shoal canceled because of snow??

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather Alert 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, and 15 Feb. Toliva Shoal canceled because of snow??

It certainly wouldn’t have been the first time this race was sailed in the snow however this is the right call. Not because of snow but because this would have been the classic Toliva Shoal sucker punch; nice NE breeze (10-15 knots) for the start however by noon to 1300 hrs it would steadily drop to zero gusting to ½. As usual, another great call by the Race Committee.

February 12 Satellite image

Today’s  surface analysis chart shows the reasons why all this is happening.  The first feature of note is the two high-pressure systems to the NE of us in BC. Especially the one whose central pressure is 1045MB and when we have 1017Mb here that’s a 25Mb difference so it’s no wonder we have areas of strong E-ENE breeze. Especially near the outflow from the Fraser River Vally and the gaps in the Cascades. For instance, 36 knots of E in Greenwater.    

  • February 12 500 MB
  • February 12 Surface Analysis
  • February 13 Surface Forecast
  • February 14 500 MB
  • February 14 Surface Forecast
  • February 15 Surface Forecast
  • February 16 Surface Forecast
  • February 16 500 MB

The offshore picture is also very interesting with a weak low-pressure system (990MB) off the north end of Vancouver Island with an attached frontal system. Of particular note is the point at which the cold front turns into a stationary occluded front at about 35N 150W. This is where a new low is forming and you’ll notice the start of a very long red arrow. That red arrow is pointed right at us here on the Salish Sea and its length indicates that this low will travel about 1680 miles in 24 hours, which means it’s moving at 70 knots, WOW! This fast-moving system with its attached frontal system will come ashore Saturday morning.

February 12 Langley Doppler

As always, it’s interesting to look at the extended surface forecast charts especially the 96HR one from today. Note the 952MB low in the far western Pacific, which is one very intense low-pressure system and it will be one to watch as it works its way towards North America.  You now have to check out the 500MB charts to see how these systems will keep coming at us., which they will.

The good news is that with the way the polar vortex is oscillating, this should be the last major intrusion of cold polar air this season.   I’m sure the central US and East Coast are hoping for this. Below freezing and closer to 0°F to the Texas Gulf Coast? There are going to be some very busy plumbers dealing with frozen pipes and more icy roadways. YUK.

Have a great weekend.

Ed. Note: Happy Valentine’s Day! For sailors, long underwear can be just as romantic as flowers. I say bravely.

Toliva Shoal Race – Shortened Course Makes for Fun Race

Kurt Hoehne Racing, South Sound Series 0 Comment
Toliva Shoal Race – Shortened Course Makes for Fun Race

As Bruce predicted, it was a pretty light day in the southernmost of South Sound races. For those who braved the cold, they got to enjoy a gentle breeze, shortened course and a chance to be merry (or get back north) afterward with friends.

Dave Knowlton, skipper of the non-flying sails class winner Koosah, says “It was a great race!!  They thankfully shortened it at Toliva Shoal! Boats from up north just kept going and the Oly boats motored home!!

The Antrim 27 Redline skippered by Kyle Reese-Cassal won PHRF 5 and overall. The J/35s and Express 37s enjoyed some near level racing with 6 boats in Class 4. Results.

Photos as usual by Jan Anderson. Click here for more.

  • Redline!


Bruce’s Briefs, February 15-17 & Southern Sound Series Toliva Shoal Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 0 Comment

And another interesting week it has been for weather in the Pacific NW. At least we weren’t trying to race Toliva Shoal last weekend. Unfortunately, or fortunately as the case may be, we are between systems and out of the path of the jet stream. The front that passed through yesterday has moved on and left us with a weak low-pressure system just off of Astoria that will continue to dissipate as it moves inland tonight and tomorrow. The Sunday (Feb 17) Chart shows another fairly strong high-pressure system (1044MB) developing over the BC interior which will bring another blast of cold air down the Fraser River Valley and into the northern part of the Washington. This will likely result in Small Craft Advisories for the Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands on Sunday.

  • February 15 500MB
  • February 15 Surface Analysis
  • February 16 Surface Forecast
  • February 17 Surface Forecast
  • February 18 500MB
  • February 18 Surface Forecast
  • February 19 Surface Forecast

This does not bode well for finishing the Long Course on the Toliva Shoal Race. Plus the combination of light air and the tide being against the fleet until about 1400 hours, making for a long, cold day on the water. Luckily, the race committee has a history of reading the tea leaves pretty well and has usually shortened the course when necessary without hesitation.

Tidal Currents Dana Passage

0906       Slack

1106       1.2 knt Flood

1400       Slack

1736       2.49 knt Ebb

2130       Slack

Tidal Currents Narrows

0900      Slack

1124      1.8 knt Flood

1418      Slack

1748      3.56 knt Ebb

2124      Slack

The charts show that weak low-pressure system staying almost centered over the top of us. This will mean light (5 knots or less) southerly to southwesterly breeze over the race area for most of the day with the possibility of slightly more wind (5-8 knots) late in the afternoon. As usual, the hospitality at the Yacht Club will be outstanding so just make sure you’ve got enough fuel to power back if they do shorten the course.

Have a good one and stay warm.

Toliva Shoal Race a Boom-buster

Kurt Hoehne Racing , 0 Comment
Toliva Shoal Race a Boom-buster

There’s nothing like a little carnage to get the racing blood boiling. The Toliva Shoal Race, third in the South Sound Series, was raced on Saturday. We can talk about race tactics, but it seems like it was mainly an exercise of survival on the course. Details are still coming in, and apologies for anything inaccurate or missing, but here’s what we have so far:

Broken finger onboard Korina Korina.

Broken boom on Equus.

Blown up chute on Cherokee.

Lost rudder and engine issues on Zig Zag, had to be towed from the McNeil Island area.

Torn main on Les Cheveux Blanc.

Lost backstay on Flying Circus.

Rig issues on Bodacious.

By all accounts Bruce had it right on Friday’s Brief, and the gusts that knocked boats silly sure seemed to be in the 40s. The wind came through on bursts, taking a what seemed like a challenging but under control run into a broach crisis. The boats that made it to Toliva Shoal then faced a brutal upwind. Some came in under headsail alone. There were 19 finishers and over 50 entries. Winners included Jam, String Theory, Leucothea, Lightly Salted, Redline, Folie ‘a Deux, Cherokee, White Squall and Jolly Rumbalow. Results.

According to Kenelm Russell, who’s done “nearly all of them,” this one was the windiest. Not too much for his Fast Passage 39, which he sailed as a family affair including sons, daughter and brother. The mainsail had to come down when the reefing line snapped, and two windows were knocked out because of flailing sheets, but none of it was too much for the Fast Passage Rushwind. Rushwind, after all, has been around the Pacific twice and up to Alaska. (Note to self, now that’s a cruiser racer. They still exist!)  He notes that Balch Passage was memorable. “It was frothy white – like sailing through foam,” Russell.

In a race like this, it’s best to let the pictures and videos give the explanations, so I’ve included a lot of them.

 

First off, from Jan Anderson’s album:

 

Sean Trew caught the action as well:

Here’s a video from Jim Larsen taken at Boston Harbor:

Here’s a video from the Ericson 32 Finally Free:

And here’s another by Mike Gowrylow:

If you want to share more – send them to me or share to the sailish.com Facebook Page! (You do “Like” sailish on Facebook, right?)

Bruce’s Brief’s: Weather for 16, 17, & 18 Feb, Breezy Toliva Shoal Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather , 1 Comment
Bruce’s Brief’s: Weather for 16, 17, & 18 Feb, Breezy Toliva Shoal Race

Oh boy, you better sit down and get out the AED because you almost never see these three words in the same sentence: Toliva Shoal and Breezy! The models all seem to agree, we are gonna have some wind this weekend with the slight possibility of snow late Saturday and early Sunday, so if you’re going on the race you had better prepare accordingly. This includes a potential wind chill of 15-20°F which is no joke.

As you can see from the surface charts we have a relatively weak low-pressure system with an attached frontal system working over us today to be followed by a much stronger system tomorrow. The front associated with tomorrow’s system will pass through near dawn leaving us with a strong post-frontal, onshore flow. This will mean strong SW breeze over the south and central Sound with steady winds of 20-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots and this will hold for most of Saturday, even over the Toliva Shoal Race Course.

The other good news is that we’ll have favorable tides with the ebb starting just before the race starts. In this run, reach, run scenario you will probably make it to the Toliva mark fairly early which means you’ll need to be thinking ahead and be constantly planning for that next leg, especially the leg from Johnson Pt to Buoy #3 at the Flats. This will be a shifty reach where you’ll really want to have the barber-hauler rigged on the port side before you leave the dock because once you’re racing you’ll be too busy to rig it. There will also be plenty of rain which will knock visibility down so be sure to have the compass courses posted for each leg.

It will almost certainly be a hard beat from Toliva Shoal back to the finish. It tends to be lighter going through Balch Passage however if the breeze is on I would be tempted to stay with the #4 or your small jib rather than trying to do multiple headsail changes. Just power up the main. The crew will also like short tacking in there with the smaller headsail. You’ll want to work the Devils Head side of Drayton Passage to stay in flatter water then hold starboard tack all the way across to the flatter water below Johnson Point. From there to Boston Harbor it will be stay on the favored tack and HIKE, HIKE, HIKE! Once you get into Budd Inlet, you’ll want to favor the west side for flatter water and the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack.

This will be a good one just make sure the jacklines are run and everyone is wearing life jackets and harnessed up before you leave the dock.

And then there’s Sunday! By early Sunday morning, the breeze will swing around to the north-northeast and blow just as hard from that direction. Probably 25-35 knots in the north and central Sound, and the eastern end of the Straits, and 15-25 knots in the South Sound. This will also be bringing that very cold air down from the BC interior. Maybe wait until next weekend to do that delivery from Olympia to points north.

Have a great weekend, just be safe out there.

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for February 18-19 and Toliva Shoal Race!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather , , 0 Comment

Have we had enough rain yet? Apparently not as we are currently sitting at the 6th wettest February ever and there’s a ways to go before the end of the month. All we need is about 2 more inches of rain to be the wettest and that could happen this coming week.

As you can see from the current surface chart there’s not much happening over the Pacific Northwest however California is going to take another major hit this weekend. We will feel some of the residual from that system starting on Saturday afternoon and some moisture will make it up to the Sound. It still won’t bring much wind with it. Unfortunately, the models are pretty much in agreement that it’s going to be light most of the day on Saturday. The problem will be that the wind offshore with be northerly with no gradient over the Sound. As the day goes on, the wind offshore will become more westerly, still light as in 10 knots or less. And then there will be some flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. As the wind offshore backs around to the southwest that will bring more of a southerly component to the wind over the south Sound, still probably 10 knots or less.

The good news is that the tide will be with the Toliva Shoal Race fleet and there are plenty of options for the race committee to shorten the course at any number of marks along the way. Besides, the gracious hospitality back in Olympia is not to be missed especially after the race.

Tides for Dana Passage:    

Saturday:

0500      Slack

0712      Flood     1.14 knots

1030      Slack

1342      Ebb          1.96 knots

1800      Slack

2024      Flood     1.25 knots

As usual, getting out of Budd Inlet will be challenging. The key will be to be near the starting line, and not be swept over with the ebb which will probably start early because of all the runoff from this week’s rain. Then find a lane of clear air and aim down the course trying to find the axis of the current while staying in the puff. If it’s 0 gusting to ½ knot don’t let too many people accumulate in the stern which increases the wetted surface area and slows the boat down. You’ll also want to be rigged for reaching with barber haulers and flying the drifter or wind seeker. Trimmers will definitely earn their keep tomorrow.

From Boston Harbor to Itsami Ledge don’t get too close to the south side of Dana Passage. The southerly breeze or what there is of it, will be coming over the land and not touch down on the water until ¼ to ½ way off the beach. Watch the smart people in front of you in the classes that started ahead and track who goes where and how they’re doing. Not always easy but worthwhile if you can make it work.

There will be a lot of water coming out of the Nisqually Flats and that can sometimes create a current that flows to the northwest from Lyle Point to Treble Point on Anderson Island so watch your COG and SOG after Buoy “3” and before your turn to go north to Toliva Shoal. You will also be able to see this current as it will be distinctly brown, muddy water on top of the saltwater of the Sound. Also track which way the eddies are spinning on tide lines to make sure you are on the fast side.

As you can see from the Sunday surface chart another front is headed our way and that will per usual manifest itself as a southeasterly in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern end of the Straits gradually working its way back down the Sound by mid Sunday afternoon. If you’re cruising up north this weekend, thinking about being in the Straits, track the wind reports before you head out as it could be cranking on Sunday.

By next Tuesday we will have a lot more rain as two frontal systems line up and take aim at us. Could also get a bit breezy. Looking at the 500MB Charts you can see why we’re going to be watching that 950 MB low in mid-Pacific. That is a significant storm that could impact our region by next weekend.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.