There’s been a volcanic eruption near Tonga, and the Pacific coast is largely under a tsunami advisory for about the next 40 minutes. This includes the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
It certainly wouldn’t have been the first time this race was sailed in the snow however this is the right call. Not because of snow but because this would have been the classic Toliva Shoal sucker punch; nice NE breeze (10-15 knots) for the start however by noon to 1300 hrs it would steadily drop to zero gusting to ½. As usual, another great call by the Race Committee.
February 12 Satellite image
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the reasons why all this is happening. The first feature of note is the two high-pressure systems to the NE of us in BC. Especially the one whose central pressure is 1045MB and when we have 1017Mb here that’s a 25Mb difference so it’s no wonder we have areas of strong E-ENE breeze. Especially near the outflow from the Fraser River Vally and the gaps in the Cascades. For instance, 36 knots of E in Greenwater.
February 12 500 MB
February 12 Surface Analysis
February 13 Surface Forecast
February 14 500 MB
February 14 Surface Forecast
February 15 Surface Forecast
February 16 Surface Forecast
February 16 500 MB
The offshore picture is also very interesting with a weak low-pressure system (990MB) off the north end of Vancouver Island with an attached frontal system. Of particular note is the point at which the cold front turns into a stationary occluded front at about 35N 150W. This is where a new low is forming and you’ll notice the start of a very long red arrow. That red arrow is pointed right at us here on the Salish Sea and its length indicates that this low will travel about 1680 miles in 24 hours, which means it’s moving at 70 knots, WOW! This fast-moving system with its attached frontal system will come ashore Saturday morning.
February 12 Langley Doppler
As always, it’s interesting to look at the extended surface forecast charts especially the 96HR one from today. Note the 952MB low in the far western Pacific, which is one very intense low-pressure system and it will be one to watch as it works its way towards North America. You now have to check out the 500MB charts to see how these systems will keep coming at us., which they will.
The good news is that with the way the polar vortex is oscillating, this should be the last major intrusion of cold polar air this season. I’m sure the central US and East Coast are hoping for this. Below freezing and closer to 0°F to the Texas Gulf Coast? There are going to be some very busy plumbers dealing with frozen pipes and more icy roadways. YUK.
Have a great weekend.
Ed. Note: Happy Valentine’s Day! For sailors, long underwear can be just as romantic as flowers. I say bravely.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Ed. Note: this weather update should have been posted yesterday afternoon, but I missed posting it on time. Looking at the rising winds at West Point in Seattle this morning, it still has validity. Stay tuned for today’s forecast, we’ll get it up in the afternoon/evening.
A substantial weather system headed our way last night and into this morning. Winds in the central Sound could be 25-30 with gusts to near 40. The coast and northern interior, San Juan Islands, and Bellingham will see winds of 30-40 with gusts to near 50.
If you have a chance, check the mooring lines and fenders.
I’ll have the regular weekend forecast tomorrow afternoon.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
