And another interesting week it has been for weather in the Pacific NW. At least we weren’t trying to race Toliva Shoal last weekend. Unfortunately, or fortunately as the case may be, we are between systems and out of the path of the jet stream. The front that passed through yesterday has moved on and left us with a weak low-pressure system just off of Astoria that will continue to dissipate as it moves inland tonight and tomorrow. The Sunday (Feb 17) Chart shows another fairly strong high-pressure system (1044MB) developing over the BC interior which will bring another blast of cold air down the Fraser River Valley and into the northern part of the Washington. This will likely result in Small Craft Advisories for the Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands on Sunday.
February 15 500MB 
February 15 Surface Analysis 
February 16 Surface Forecast 
February 17 Surface Forecast 
February 18 500MB 
February 18 Surface Forecast 
February 19 Surface Forecast
This does not bode well for finishing the Long Course on the Toliva Shoal Race. Plus the combination of light air and the tide being against the fleet until about 1400 hours, making for a long, cold day on the water. Luckily, the race committee has a history of reading the tea leaves pretty well and has usually shortened the course when necessary without hesitation.
Tidal Currents Dana Passage
0906 Slack
1106 1.2 knt Flood
1400 Slack
1736 2.49 knt Ebb
2130 Slack
Tidal Currents Narrows
0900 Slack
1124 1.8 knt Flood
1418 Slack
1748 3.56 knt Ebb
2124 Slack
The charts show that weak low-pressure system staying almost centered over the top of us. This will mean light (5 knots or less) southerly to southwesterly breeze over the race area for most of the day with the possibility of slightly more wind (5-8 knots) late in the afternoon. As usual, the hospitality at the Yacht Club will be outstanding so just make sure you’ve got enough fuel to power back if they do shorten the course.
Have a good one and stay warm.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)