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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 Dec. SSSS Winter Vashon, Should be a great one!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs December 1, 2023December 1, 2023Winter Vashon Race 0 Comment

Every once and a while things come together for what should be a great race. Such is the case for Winter Vashon tomorrow. We have a warm front passing over the area now to be followed by a cold front early tomorrow morning (2-4 am). With frontal passage, a strong onshore flow will develop over the area with gale warnings along the coast and down the Strait of JdF. There will also be a strong onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. This will bring 15-25 knots of southwest wind to the racecourse for most of Saturday.

Today we have a moderate onshore flow in the Straits and through the Gap however, this will change to a prefrontal southeasterly later this evening. For the race tomorrow, expect 15-25 knots of WSW breeze in the starting area. As you sail into Colvos Passage the wind will back to the SW and ease slightly however it should still be a hull speed run to the top mark. As you sail north in Colvos, the puffs will tend to be headers so this will require good coordination between the driver and the trimmers. Don’t worry about getting cold, everyone will either be trimming hard or hiking hard on this leg and the next one.

Before you get to the top mark, start thinking about what headsail you’ll be using for the close reach from the top mark to Point Robinson. You will also want to have your barber hauler set up before you round the top mark. The breeze will probably be in the 12-18 knot range on this leg, however, at Pt Robinson expect the breeze to build to 16-25 knots. So, at the top mark set the jib in the port groove so you change down on starboard tack, do a quick tack to get the bigger sail down on port, and then tack back to starboard once you feel the breeze start to ease as you get closer to Maury Island. The puffs as they come over Vashon and Maury Island will tend to be lifts on starboard tack so favor the west side of the rhumb line from Pt Robinson to the finish. As you get closer to the south end of the islands, the breeze will tend to clock from the SW to WSW maybe even to the point of allowing you to barber haul the lead out for the last bit to the finish.

The weather charts, especially the 500MB upper-level charts and satellite pic provide a very clear picture of what we can look forward to this coming week. One weather system after another with plenty of rain and wind. While November may have been quieter and slightly dryer than normal, that will all change over the next two weeks. For November we had 5.71” of rain compared to an average of 6.31” so just .6” below average. Year to date we’ve had 26.42” compared to an average of 33.62” so 7.2” below normal. In the first two weeks of December, we could easily get what we had for the entire month of November. The real problem with this pattern is that the freezing level will rise substantially to almost 7,000ft and this will diminish the current snowpack and lead to lowland flooding in the usual areas. Should be a very interesting month for weather.

Have a safe, great race, and enjoy the always superb hospitality of TYC!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Nov 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21. GHYC LeMans, South Sound Squaxin Island, and CYC Turkey Bowl.

For all the doom and gloom forecasts, you would think it was going to be a blowout and washout of a weekend. Not the case at all. The bad news is that our friends in Olympia and Gig Harbor will have very light conditions all day Saturday but no rain. The Turkey Bowl will have some breeze about mid-day on Saturday before becoming light and variable for the rest of the day. Sunday will be a much better day for racing in the Center Sound with SE breeze in the 4-17 knot range all day. The most wind will be along the coast, the Strait of JdF, and Admiralty Inlet after midnight on Saturday as the post-frontal westerly comes onshore.

The surface analysis chart, sat pic, and 500MB charts for today will provide you with a very interesting picture of what is going on up and down our coast. We have centered over us today a weak 1021 MB high-pressure system hence the light air around the Salish Sea. Offshore is quite another story with a weak surface low-pressure system off Southern California that is not going very far or very fast because it is being held in place by an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system. We also have a series of low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska extending as far south as 40N. The extended cold front goes from SE Alaska to almost Hawaii.

On Saturday the low off California will have drifted slowly to the north, while the lows in the Gulf of Alaska will have consolidated and will move slowly and directly towards the Pacific NW. As you can see, the pressure gradient over the Pacific NW will remain weak while the gradient behind the cold front will compress and as it comes ashore Saturday night this will bring the strong post-frontal onshore flow down the Strait of JdF.

The 48hr surface forecast is, as usual, the most interesting as it shows the entire North Pacific and this week you will see two of the deepest/strongest low-pressure systems we’ve seen this fall. The closest one to North America is currently at 982MB but in 24 hours will deepen to 968MB. Almost, but not quite, bombogenesis. That requires a 24Mb drop in 24 hours. Then off Kamchatka, Russia, and moving into the Bering Sea we have a 944MB low with hurricane-force winds on its south side. Keeping the 982MB low from directly impacting the Pacific NW is a 1032MB high off San Francisco. The 500Mb chart also shows the jet stream going over the top of this high and eventually coming ashore off the north end of Vancouver Island. This will keep us dry and with temps slightly above normal.

In this post-frontal onshore flow, the breeze will be from the NW off the coast at 30-40 knots. It will flow down the Strait at 25-35 knots, around the bottom of the Olympics, and through the Chehalis Gap at 20-30 knots. Too bad Squaxin Island and the LeMans Race couldn’t be rescheduled for Sunday. That would make for some sporty sailing especially trying to get out of Gig Harbor. The flow coming up the Sound will persist Sunday giving the Turkey Bowl some great sailing with 4-15 knots of SE most of the day with the breeze backing to the ESE then ENE late in the afternoon.

Very little rain during the daylight hours this weekend, however so far this month we’ve had just over 5” of rain compared to an average of 3.31”. For the year we are still 4.82” below average. Some rain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning and then another weak front will come into the area on Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10,11, 12, 13, and 14 Nov. It will be blustery, at least on Saturday for one of our favorite races: Round the County!

Kurt Hoehne Uncategorized November 10, 2023November 10, 2023 0 Comment

From the past, we have learned to expect almost anything on Round the County and this year will be no different. We have a fast-moving front going through tonight with a post-frontal situation setting up for tomorrow which will bring a strong onshore flow down the Strait of JdF. This will carry up into the race course with the possibility of some fast sailing tomorrow with the only on-the-wind work being a hard beat from Patos to Turn Pt. Sunday will be much different.

Tides can be a factor however this year they are minimal.

Saturday 11/11

Rosario Strait Turn Pt

0842 Slack 0936 Slack

1148 Max Fld 1.36 knts 1224 Max Fld 1.84 knts

1406 Slack 1542 Slack

1918 Max Ebb 2.27 knts 1818 Max Ebb 1.66 knts

Sunday 11/12

Haro Strait Rosario Strait

0830 Max Ebb .47 knts 0830 Max Ebb 1.05

1012 Slack 1124 Slack

1336 Max Fld 1.0 knts 1342 Max Fld .78 knts

1600 Slack 1548 Slack

2030 Max Ebb 3.4 knts

Today’s surface analysis chart shows an impressive low-pressure system (973MB) in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached frontal system. The warm front is moving through now with the cold front to follow early tomorrow morning with plenty of rain and wind. The 24-hour Surface Chart also shows the next fast-moving front coming towards us. Notice today’s 500MB Chart which is very zonal, flowing straight across the Pacific and coming ashore in Central Oregon. This will allow more storms and cooler temps into the Salish Sea this coming week.

For tomorrow the highest winds will be just after midnight and then ease slightly as we get closer to starting. The flow over the race course will be consistently SW with some local variations. As always, the smart thing to do will be to have the jack lines rigged and everyone in PFD’s and safety harnesses before the start. The reason being that while conditions in the starting area will be mild (10-15 knts) after Lawrence Pt the wind will build to SW 20-30 knts. Think about changing to a smaller kite and getting everybody stacked on the aft rail. Remember, always depower the boat from the back to the bow. Main, vang, then kite. Also, having whatever headsail you’re going to use from Patos to the finish, up under the kite will help you keep the bow down and get the boat back on its feet faster after a crash.

0900 SW 20-30 knts Lawrence to Patos

1000 SW 20-25 knts Lawrence to Patos, Patos to Turn Pt (TP).

1100 SW 15-25 knts Patos to Turn Pt, Turn Pt to Finish

1200 Same

1300 Same except that the wind will shift to the WSW the closer you get to Stuart Island. Water will tend to flatter closer to the Island and you’ll be out of the flood tide.

1400 SW 15-30 knts Patos to TP and TP to the Finish.

1500 SW 20-35 knts Patos to TP and TP to the Finish.

1600 WSW 20-30 knts same

1700 WSW 15-25 knts same

1800 WSW 15-20 knts same

Sunday will be quite different as the first day after frontal passage (Saturday) always brings the strongest breeze. The onshore flow will weaken and we will start to see the effects of another frontal system on Sunday morning. This will bring SE breeze to the area however as this front stalls off the coast, the SE will ease and become more of a drainage easterly-northeasterly coming down out of the Fraser River Valley. It will be this transition that will be the challenge on Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon, a stronger pre-frontal SE breeze will build over the area.

Sunday

0800 SE-ESE 15-25 knts Start to Davidson Rk

0900 Same

1000 Same however breeze will start to ease the closer you get to Davidson.

1100 SE 8-15 knts Cattle Pass to Davidson

1200 Drainage wind begins to develop.

1200 E 5-12 knts Cattle Pass to Davidson, E 4-10Davidson to Thatcher Pass

1300 NNE 4-8 knts Thatcher Pass to Finish, ENE 4-8 knts Iceberg Pt to Thatcher

1400 N-NNE 6-12 knts Davidson to Finish

1500 N-NNE 4-10 knts Thatcher to Finish

1600 E-NE 2-6 knts Dav to Finish

1700 SE 8-12 knts Dav to Thatcher, E-ENE 2-6 knts Thatch to Fin

1800 SE 11-16 knts Dav to Finish.

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy Roche Harbor and all the great hospitality from the Orcas Island Yacht Club!

Bob Perry’s a Hall-of-Famer, Officially

Kurt Hoehne Community, Pacific Northwest Sailing Industry November 8, 2023November 8, 2023Bob Perry 0 Comment

Of all the notable sailing industry luminaries of the Pacific Northwest, none have had a greater influence on the world of sailing than naval architect Bob Perry. From his seminal Valiant 40 design to today’s “Carbon Cutter,” his work not only stands on its own, it has influenced cruising boat design for six decades. Over the years several aspiring designers have interned and worked with Bob and gone on to successful careers. Beyond that, his design review column in Sailing Magazine has educated and entertained since the 1970s. (Ed. Note. I had the honor of editing that column for some years) Still very much an active designer, Bob can also occasionally can be coaxed out of his “Shack” on the water to speak to groups, never failing to entertain. If you doubt that, listen to his acceptance speech, below.

Bob was just inducted into the National Sailing Hall of Fame. It’s a well-deserved honor. Here’s the video of his acceptance:

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, and 6 Nov. If you’re sailing just about anywhere on the Salish Sea this weekend, you’ll have the breeze

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs November 3, 2023November 3, 2023 0 Comment

I guess the pictures of a loaded barge sailing (literally) into the Bell Harbor Pier are enough to confirm just how much breeze there was on Elliott Bay. Kudos to the West Seattle Water Taxi captain, who did the right thing and with his actions kept the Seattle Aquarium and the Big Wheel from major damage. It also serves to illustrate just how valuable the NDBC Graphs can be if you are thinking about heading out on the water. In the graph, you can see the pressure dropping very rapidly (the green line) and just when it hits the bottom you can see we had a peak gust and windspeed of 30-35 knots at West Point. These graphs are a great way to spot trends and when the graph is steep, you know we are in for some weather.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give you a classic picture of what we have coming for tomorrow. The low in the center of the sat pic is the 984MB low with an attached warm front that will come through the area tonight followed by a cold front that will come through on Saturday. This low is moving off to the NE as our weak string of high-pressure systems inland still have the power to deflect this deepening low into BC. Notice also that this 984MB low will intensify to 976MB overnight. As it hits the coastal buffer zone on Sunday it will finally start to weaken and dissipate.

The 500MB chart shows the jet stream with a SW to NE flow coming ashore near Cape Flattery. As the weekend goes on, the Jet Stream will sag to the south where by Tuesday the Jet Stream will be coming ashore south of San Francisco. This will allow for cooler temperatures and another storm system to come into the Pacific NW early next week.

Last week we mentioned that November is typically the wettest month of the year and the way we starting this year certainly seems to reinforce that thinking. While it’s only the third of November we are almost an inch ahead of the average for this date. In some ways this is good, however, with the warmer than normal temps, we are not yet building snowpack.

As I said at the start of this missive, we are going to have breeze tomorrow. It doesn’t matter if you’re doing Herron Island in the South Sound, the STYC Fall Regatta, the Anacortes Commodores Cup, or the Kits Bluenose Regatta on English Bay. You can and should anticipate sailing in 10-25 knots of S-SE breeze with higher gusts. This means PDF’s, safety harnesses, and jack lines are all on and in place before you leave the dock. When it comes to flying the spinnaker in that kind of breeze, just remember that staying upright is fast, and going sideways is slow. If you’re not comfortable with that kind of breeze, just wing the jib out and watch the carnage develop around you. Live to fight another day. (Ed. Note: I’ve seen none other than Bill Buchan wing the jib out while others were wiping out, only to lead at the leeward mark. Doesn’t always work that way, but can. KH)

Have a great weekend and BE SAFE out there.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for October 27, 28, 29, 30, and Halloween! A beautiful weekend to be on the water! Cool and breezy today, not so much Saturday and Sunday.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 27, 2023October 27, 2023 0 Comment

Another crazy week of weather and not just in the Pacific NW. The Midwest is about to see the first big blast of cold weather while Mexico continues to clean up after four hurricanes. Don’t look now but a fifth hurricane is forming off Guatemala in conditions very conducive for hurricane development.

For the Salish Sea, the best day for sailing will be today as we have a strong NE flow coming out of the Fraser River Valley because of a strong(1040MB), multi-centered high-pressure system extending from almost Anchorage to Puget Sound. Hence the breeze and the cold temps. Check also the 500Mb Charts as it still has that exaggerated bend going from just north of Hawaii, over the eastern part of the Aleutians, to well north in Alaska before curving back south and then coming ashore in southern Oregon.

By tomorrow, the pressure gradient will ease over the area however the dominant weather feature will be a stalled occluded front running down the coast of North America from about Seward, Alaska to just north of San Francisco. The inland high-pressure system will also drift to the SE and strengthen to 1043MB. This will bring light air to the Salish Sea and start the development of strong Santa Ana breezes in central and southern California,

This pattern will persist into Sunday with a slight tightening of the pressure gradient over the area. Being the Pacific NW and fall, these conditions won’t last as late Tuesday another frontal system will make its way into the Salish Sea. Don’t worry, it will be dry for trick or treating! From Wednesday on, expect typical typically wet conditions for the Pacific Northwest. November is, after all, typically the wettest month of the year. As a note, going into our El Niño winter it looks like we will end October only about .2” below our average rainfall. A good start.

For wind this weekend, expect light conditions in the central Sound until about early afternoon tomorrow when the weak northerly will build to 10-15 knots out of the north, not the northwest. This will hold until about mid-afternoon Sunday when we could get about 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the central Sound only. The rest of the Salish Sea will see generally light conditions.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 Oct. Plenty of racing this weekend. Pumpkin Regatta continues at WVYC, Race Your House, and Great Pumpkin at STYC.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 21, 2023October 21, 2023 0 Comment

Another week of record high temps over the Salish Sea, while the Midwest and East Coast prepare for the first blast of winter and a late-season hurricane with plenty of rain will hit Cabo tomorrow before crossing the Sea of Cortez and curving into the State of Sinaloa. This is just a preview of how crazy this winter could be.

Yesterday’s surface analysis chart shows our weak (1026MB) and amorphous Pacific High at about 48N 143W with a weak low (1014MB) just east of the Cascades. Yesterday’s sat pic shows a weak and disintegrating front moving onshore today. As you can see from the surface charts, the pressure gradient will remain weak over the weekend. As is the normal progression in the Pacific NW, the first day after frontal passage will see a weak ridge of high-pressure rebuild over the area and bring the best wind. This ridge will progressively weaken over the weekend bringing lighter wind. The wind will be lighter in the morning then as the day progresses a slightly stronger onshore flow will develop over the inland waters. The best wind for this weekend will probably be in the Strait of Georgia, especially on the west side of the Strait.

This bodes well for WVYC Pumpkin Regatta which will see remarkably consistent winds of 4-12 knots from the WNW for Saturday with the possibility of a slightly stronger breeze in the mid to late afternoon. Sunday will see lighter conditions with the wind going from the NW to the WSW in the afternoon but probably staying at less than 8 knots.

For the STYC Regattas, the problem will be if they try to use the Z mark on the west side of the Sound against the north side of Port Madison. With a prevailing north wind of 10 knots or less in the central Sound, the breeze at the Z mark will be lighter and if boats have difficulty in there, that will just chop up what breeze there is even more.

The other charts of interest this weekend are the upper level or 500MB charts which show an exaggerated meridional flow. By the 24^th of Oct, the jet stream will travel from 30N to 64N before curving back south to 45N and coming ashore near the mouth of the Columbia. This is what will bring cooler temps to the Salish Sea next week with the possibility of some light, mid-week rain. The last week of October could be fairly wet, but we’ll see.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17 Oct. Pumpkin Regatta WVYC, PSSC CYC Seattle, and Eagle Island Race South Sound, Lots going on this weekend.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing October 13, 2023October 13, 2023PSSC regatta 0 Comment

Lots of sailing going on this weekend combined with plenty of weather. In other words, a typical fall weekend with an Annular Eclipse topping. We just won’t be able to see it because it’s going to be raining. Just about everywhere.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a series of low-pressure systems aimed right at the Salish Sea. Until you look at the 992MB low just off our coast, which now is projected to move in a NNW direction and parallel the coast up into SE Alaska. The attached cold front will drag across the Salish Sea with gusty winds. With the coastal buffer zone in play, this front will weaken as it comes onshore. This means the strongest breeze will be along the coast, the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and the northern part of the San Juan Islands.

The other interesting chart is the 48hr surface forecast chart 15 Oct, which shows the entire north Pacific. In the middle is a very large low-pressure system (950MB) which is actually the remnants of Typhoon Bolaven and at this point, it is aimed at the California/Oregon Border. True, it is projected to weaken to 962MB and it should continue to weaken however if it does make landfall, it will still be a significant storm. It is particularly interesting that this week is the anniversary of the 1962 Oct 12 storm which was also the result of a weakened, post-tropical Typhoon.

How all of these will affect the racing this weekend is shown below:

Time Eagle Island PSSC Pumpkin Regatta

0900 S 5-11 SSW 3-7 SE 7-12

1000 SSW 3-7 S 3-7 SE 5-11

1100 S 2-7 S 4-11 SE 5-12

1200 SSW 2-6 S 8-12 ESE 4-9

1300 SSW 3-5 S 4-8 SE 4-9

1400 SSW 3-5 SSW 3-8 SE 4-9

1500 S 6-9 SE 3-10 SE 5-10

1600 WSW 8-11 SE 3-8 SE 5-10

1700 WSW 0-5 SE 4-9 ESE 8-13

Sunday

0900 ESE 0-6 ESE 8-14

1000 E 4-8 E 6-12

1100 SSE 3-6 ESE 6-10

1200 L&V* E 4-8

1300 L&V ESE 3-6

1400 ENE 3-5 E 2-5

1500 NE 3-6 E 2-5

1600 N 4-8 E 2-5

1700 N 3-5 E 2-5

*Light & Variable

Not terrible conditions but mainly light with rain . A much stronger front will come through on Monday.

Enjoy the weekend and stay safe.

Bruce’s Briefs. Wx for 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 Oct. Fall is finally arriving, Foulweather Bluff Race and it’s going to be a beautiful weekend.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs October 6, 2023October 6, 2023 0 Comment

September certainly ended on a wet note and for the month of October, we are actually a little above normal. This weekend will be the exception to what is traditionally the wettest part of the year with no rain and temperatures well above normal, maybe even in record territory. Today’s sat pic and surface analysis charts provide a very clear explanation for this anomaly.

With higher pressure to the east of the Cascades (1035MB) and a thermally induced trough along the coast, we have an offshore flow with the strongest breeze being 17 knots from the ESE at the mouth of the Strait of JdF with Race Rocks a close second with 15 knots of ESE breeze. The sat pic shows spectacularly clear conditions over the Salish Sea with the offshore breeze holding the cloud cover well offshore. There is also very little pressure gradient over the area so breezes over the inland waters are generally light.

Unfortunately, these conditions will hold well into the weekend until another front makes its presence felt late Sunday afternoon. This front is attached to a 984MB low that will move in an NNE direction and slowly intensify before coming ashore in SE Alaska early next week. This will also bring rain to the Salish Sea for most of the first half of next week. This system will also generate gale-force SE conditions along the coast. A second system will also come ashore on Tuesday.

The long-range forecast shows yet another break for next weekend with above normal temps and below-average rainfall. The week of 16 Oct really does look like the start of a fairly wet period and a more typical fall pattern.

As I mentioned above, the conditions for the Foulweather Bluff Race in the absence of any real pressure gradient look a little on the light side. The good news is that the tidal current at the FWB mark will not be killer. Max flood will only be about .74 knots at 0742 hrs with slack tide occurring at around 1442hrs.

The interesting part of how the pressure gradient is shaping up is that the most wind over the inland waters will probably be in Admiralty Inlet and the west side of the North Sound. The bad news is that conditions in the starting area will remain in the 2-5 knot range all day. A SE breeze of 3-8 knots will backfill down Admiralty Inlet from Port Townsend getting to FWB around mid-day. It will backfill down to around Pilot Pt but not much further. The nice weather and warm temps will create a more interesting problem at Scatchet Head as the heating of the bluff will cause the wind to lift off the water keeping conditions very light near the bluff.

The other charts of interest are the upper-level, 500MB charts, which show a transition from today’s roughly meridional flow to a zonal flow by midweek with the jet stream coming ashore near the CA/OR border. This is what will bring cooler temps and wetter conditions to the Salish Sea.

Enjoy this weekend but make sure the boat has the winter fenders and mooring lines securely rigged.

CSR Converts Vic-Maui Sponsorship into Maui Rebuild Sponsorship

Kurt Hoehne Community, Vic-Maui Race October 1, 2023October 2, 2023 0 Comment

In a world where return-on-investment is gospel, the real long term return-on-investment, supporting the communities we live in and share our passion with, is too often lost. The Seattle boatyard CSR chose to use the funds it earmarked for the 2024 Vic-Maui race for helping rebuild Maui. We at Sailish hope 2026 is a great race with lots of boats prepping at CSR!

Here’s the note from CSR’s Nigel Barron to the Vic-Maui officials:

“CSR would like to direct our funds to the LYC Rebuild Fund. Throughout the years of sponsoring or competing in the Vic Maui race we’ve always been struck by the hospitality of the people of Hawaii and our friends at LYC. A hui hou, mahalo!”

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