From the past, we have learned to expect almost anything on Round the County and this year will be no different. We have a fast-moving front going through tonight with a post-frontal situation setting up for tomorrow which will bring a strong onshore flow down the Strait of JdF. This will carry up into the race course with the possibility of some fast sailing tomorrow with the only on-the-wind work being a hard beat from Patos to Turn Pt. Sunday will be much different.
Tides can be a factor however this year they are minimal.
Saturday 11/11
Rosario Strait Turn Pt
0842 Slack 0936 Slack
1148 Max Fld 1.36 knts 1224 Max Fld 1.84 knts
1406 Slack 1542 Slack
1918 Max Ebb 2.27 knts 1818 Max Ebb 1.66 knts
Sunday 11/12
Haro Strait Rosario Strait
0830 Max Ebb .47 knts 0830 Max Ebb 1.05
1012 Slack 1124 Slack
1336 Max Fld 1.0 knts 1342 Max Fld .78 knts
1600 Slack 1548 Slack
2030 Max Ebb 3.4 knts
Today’s surface analysis chart shows an impressive low-pressure system (973MB) in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached frontal system. The warm front is moving through now with the cold front to follow early tomorrow morning with plenty of rain and wind. The 24-hour Surface Chart also shows the next fast-moving front coming towards us. Notice today’s 500MB Chart which is very zonal, flowing straight across the Pacific and coming ashore in Central Oregon. This will allow more storms and cooler temps into the Salish Sea this coming week.
For tomorrow the highest winds will be just after midnight and then ease slightly as we get closer to starting. The flow over the race course will be consistently SW with some local variations. As always, the smart thing to do will be to have the jack lines rigged and everyone in PFD’s and safety harnesses before the start. The reason being that while conditions in the starting area will be mild (10-15 knts) after Lawrence Pt the wind will build to SW 20-30 knts. Think about changing to a smaller kite and getting everybody stacked on the aft rail. Remember, always depower the boat from the back to the bow. Main, vang, then kite. Also, having whatever headsail you’re going to use from Patos to the finish, up under the kite will help you keep the bow down and get the boat back on its feet faster after a crash.
0900 SW 20-30 knts Lawrence to Patos
1000 SW 20-25 knts Lawrence to Patos, Patos to Turn Pt (TP).
1100 SW 15-25 knts Patos to Turn Pt, Turn Pt to Finish
1200 Same
1300 Same except that the wind will shift to the WSW the closer you get to Stuart Island. Water will tend to flatter closer to the Island and you’ll be out of the flood tide.
1400 SW 15-30 knts Patos to TP and TP to the Finish.
1500 SW 20-35 knts Patos to TP and TP to the Finish.
1600 WSW 20-30 knts same
1700 WSW 15-25 knts same
1800 WSW 15-20 knts same
Sunday will be quite different as the first day after frontal passage (Saturday) always brings the strongest breeze. The onshore flow will weaken and we will start to see the effects of another frontal system on Sunday morning. This will bring SE breeze to the area however as this front stalls off the coast, the SE will ease and become more of a drainage easterly-northeasterly coming down out of the Fraser River Valley. It will be this transition that will be the challenge on Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon, a stronger pre-frontal SE breeze will build over the area.
Sunday
0800 SE-ESE 15-25 knts Start to Davidson Rk
0900 Same
1000 Same however breeze will start to ease the closer you get to Davidson.
1100 SE 8-15 knts Cattle Pass to Davidson
1200 Drainage wind begins to develop.
1200 E 5-12 knts Cattle Pass to Davidson, E 4-10Davidson to Thatcher Pass
1300 NNE 4-8 knts Thatcher Pass to Finish, ENE 4-8 knts Iceberg Pt to Thatcher
1400 N-NNE 6-12 knts Davidson to Finish
1500 N-NNE 4-10 knts Thatcher to Finish
1600 E-NE 2-6 knts Dav to Finish
1700 SE 8-12 knts Dav to Thatcher, E-ENE 2-6 knts Thatch to Fin
1800 SE 11-16 knts Dav to Finish.
Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy Roche Harbor and all the great hospitality from the Orcas Island Yacht Club!
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.