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From the past, we have learned to expect almost anything on Round the County and this year will be no different. We have a fast-moving front going through tonight with a post-frontal situation setting up for tomorrow which will bring a strong onshore flow down the Strait of JdF. This will carry up into the race course with the possibility of some fast sailing tomorrow with the only on-the-wind work being a hard beat from Patos to Turn Pt. Sunday will be much different.

Tides can be a factor however this year they are minimal.

Saturday 11/11

Rosario Strait                                                    Turn Pt

0842     Slack                                                     0936     Slack

1148     Max Fld             1.36 knts                      1224     Max Fld             1.84 knts

1406     Slack                                                     1542     Slack

1918     Max Ebb           2.27 knts                      1818     Max Ebb           1.66 knts

Sunday 11/12

Haro Strait                                                        Rosario Strait

0830     Max Ebb           .47 knts            0830     Max Ebb           1.05

1012     Slack                                         1124     Slack

1336     Max Fld             1.0 knts            1342     Max Fld             .78 knts

1600     Slack                                         1548     Slack

 2030     Max Ebb           3.4 knts

Today’s surface analysis chart shows an impressive low-pressure system (973MB) in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached frontal system. The warm front is moving through now with the cold front to follow early tomorrow morning with plenty of rain and wind. The 24-hour Surface Chart also shows the next fast-moving front coming towards us.   Notice today’s 500MB Chart which is very zonal, flowing straight across the Pacific and coming ashore in Central Oregon. This will allow more storms and cooler temps into the Salish Sea this coming week.

For tomorrow the highest winds will be just after midnight and then ease slightly as we get closer to starting. The flow over the race course will be consistently SW with some local variations. As always, the smart thing to do will be to have the jack lines rigged and everyone in PFD’s and safety harnesses before the start. The reason being that while conditions in the starting area will be mild (10-15 knts) after Lawrence Pt the wind will build to SW 20-30 knts. Think about changing to a smaller kite and getting everybody stacked on the aft rail. Remember, always depower the boat from the back to the bow. Main, vang, then kite. Also, having whatever headsail you’re going to use from Patos to the finish,  up under the kite will help you keep the bow down and get the boat back on its feet faster after a crash.  

0900     SW       20-30 knts        Lawrence to Patos

1000     SW       20-25 knts        Lawrence to Patos, Patos to Turn Pt (TP).

1100     SW       15-25 knts        Patos to Turn Pt, Turn Pt to Finish

1200     Same

1300     Same except that the wind will shift to the WSW the closer you get to Stuart Island. Water will tend to flatter closer to the Island and you’ll be out of the flood tide.

1400     SW       15-30 knts        Patos to TP and TP to the Finish.

1500     SW       20-35 knts        Patos to TP and TP to the Finish.

1600     WSW    20-30 knts        same

1700     WSW    15-25 knts        same

1800     WSW    15-20 knts        same

Sunday will be quite different as the first day after frontal passage (Saturday) always brings the strongest breeze. The onshore flow will weaken and we will start to see the effects of another frontal system on Sunday morning. This will bring SE breeze to the area however as this front stalls off the coast, the SE will ease and become more of a drainage easterly-northeasterly coming down out of the Fraser River Valley. It will be this transition that will be the challenge on Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon, a stronger pre-frontal SE breeze will build over the area.

Sunday

0800     SE-ESE  15-25 knts        Start to Davidson Rk

0900     Same

1000 Same however breeze will start to ease the closer you get to Davidson.

1100     SE         8-15 knts          Cattle Pass to Davidson

1200 Drainage wind begins to develop.

1200     E          5-12 knts          Cattle Pass to Davidson, E 4-10Davidson to Thatcher Pass

1300     NNE     4-8 knts            Thatcher Pass to Finish, ENE 4-8 knts Iceberg Pt to Thatcher

1400     N-NNE  6-12 knts          Davidson to Finish

1500     N-NNE 4-10 knts           Thatcher to Finish

1600     E-NE     2-6 knts            Dav to Finish

1700     SE         8-12 knts          Dav to Thatcher, E-ENE 2-6 knts Thatch to Fin

1800     SE         11-16 knts        Dav to Finish.

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy Roche Harbor and all the great hospitality from the Orcas Island Yacht Club!  

For some reason, some additional comments on ORC aren’t appearing. I’ll just post them here for everyone to see Dave Lynch further question JAM’s rating and US Sailing’s reponse.

From Dave Lynch, in response to US Sailing’s response to his earlier questions regarding Jam’s rating.

Interesting, and thanks for the sleuthing. There were a couple of items I hadn’t noticed, and it’s helpful. Here are a few thoughts in return:

Difference in 2-blade or 3-blade feathering props. One would think that a 3-blade feathering prop would cause more drag than a 2-blade. In contrast the change was coincident with the change in rating from 540 to 533.

Similarly, one would think a roller furling headsail would be less efficient, and thus slower…that change also happened coincident with the faster rating in 2021 compared to 2017.

The issue of crew weight is a bit hard to evaluate. Given the size of the boat and the need for the boat to be sailed well it’s pretty reasonable to assume the boat is fully crewed for most races. In both 2017 and 2021 the maximum crew weight was 907kg, while in 2023 it was 850kg. Assuming weight of an average crew is 185lbs (84.1kgs) that 57kg (a single smaller crewperson) doesn’t seem like much…especially on a boat that displaces 36,000 lbs.

Changes in D/L ration: from 111 (2017 w/ the aluminum rig) to 106.6 (2023 w/ the carbon rig). Not much of a change. Even less of a difference from 2021 (107.7). 

Considering how small the changes are from year to year, and even considering the potential of additive effects, I’m still finding it hard to understand how they can add up to an 18spm change in performance. 

And US Sailing’s response to David’s additional concerns:

A 2 bladed feathering and a 3 bladed folding prop are very differently treated. In absolutes the changes are small but lots of small changes do lead to large changes.  If I mis-typed it as 3 bladed feathering that is my mistake, the current prop is listed as 3 bladed FOLDING.

Yes, furling will be slower than changing jibs, Jam is now rated as changing jibs having previously been rated with furling jibs.  They probably should have been rated this way all along.

None of the noted items aside from possibly the rig composition which in default values mean a carbon rig will have a lighter weight and lower CG had a large individual impact on the rating.

The list was more to point out that the inputs for the boat actually were not the same so it’s a little bit of an apples to pears comparison but not as bad a comparing apples to chickens.

There are always efforts to improve the science and the VPP. This is ongoing work by a group of very smart people.  Here is the list of those involved with the ITC (International Technical Committee)  being those who work directly on the VPP https://orc.org/index.asp?id=62.  This is done proactively versus sailors having to protest ratings as is the policy in other rating systems. As the pool of boats being rated has grown so has the work by the ITC to be sure the rule is fairly rating all boats. There are some types of boats which are rare outside of North America (ULDBs) and there has been a directed effort to make sure these boats are accurately and fairly rated by ORC as their numbers have grown in the database and more performance data has become available.  Same for relatively wide boats for their length such as Class 40s.

This week saw our first major wind event of the start of our third in a row La Niña fall/winter event. Not surprisingly, in just over a week our yearly rainfall total, with a very dry summer and a partial fall, is almost exactly on the average. Year to date we are at 26.68”, with our yearly average of 26.63”. Amazing how this is working out. We should also remember that November is traditionally our wettest month and when we have a La Niña event it means the weather will be cooler and wetter than normal.

For this weekend we will be looking at a relatively nice day on Saturday with cloudy conditions but very little rain. Sunday will see the approach of another frontal system so slightly more wind and definitely some rain. Temperatures will remain just slightly above average so all in all it will be a pretty nice weekend to be on the water in the central Sound.

For Victoria, West Van, and Bellingham expect a breezy 15 to 25 knots from south southeast while the south Sound from Tacoma south will experience light conditions on Saturday but build to 15-20 knots of south to southeast wind on Sunday.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the front that moved through early this morning and the clearing we are experiencing now. There is a weak high-pressure system (1022mb) off the southern California coast with our weak Pacific High (1029mb) at 40N 158W. The Surface Chart for tomorrow shows an easing of the gradient over the central Sound with a very impressive low (963mb, lowest of the season) moving across the Gulf of Alaska with a strong cold front that will come through the area Sunday night and into Monday.

The other charts of interest today are the upper air/500mb charts as they show a strong zonal flow today transitioning to a more seasonal meridional flow by 1 Nov. This will move the jet stream well to the south of us coming ashore in the Bay area. This will bring cooler temps to the area by mid-week.

For the STYC Race Your House folks expect 12-18 knots of southerly for the start and holding at that velocity and direction until about 1500 hours when the breeze will ease to 8-12 knots and clock slightly to the SSW. Tides won’t be much of an issue however with the persistent south wind and the rainfall we’ve had, expect an ebb current along the Shilshole breakwater and in the vicinity of West Point.

Enjoy the weekend!   

Ever since my friend and Laser regatta roommate Todd Willsie imported his RS Aero into the Seattle dinghy racing scene, one of the fleet’s questions has been “when will Kurt make the switch from Laser to Aero?” It was a question only because I was often the loudest cheerleader for the Laser fleet.

It wasn’t long before the dam broke and the remnants of the struggling Laser fleet made the switch as well. The Laser Performance vs. ILCA feud helped anyone on the fence make the move. (ILCA triumphed and if I were enlightened, I wouldn’t call them Lasers, just ILCAs.) This new Aero boat drew out new blood and some former Laser sailors from the woodwork.

At least the grown-up crowd made the switch. Covid breathed some life into the Pandemic friendly sport for kids and many were introduced to Lasers. They were available and not too expensive. And they were still an Olympic boat after all. I remained a cheerleader and honestly optimistic that the Lasers and Aeros could not only co-exist, but maybe even help each other thrive.

Fortunately, local dinghy and rigging company (and Sailish sponsor) West Coast Sailing saw things the same way. They continued to support Lasers while doing their utmost to establish and support the Seattle RS Aero fleet.

Largely, that symbiotic relationship between the classes has continued. And it’s a very good thing for the future of sailing and sailboat racing.

The evidence is in the summer of Columbia River Gorge sailing. In the recently concluded RS Aero Worlds, 54 sailors duked it out in near perfect conditions, including some “epic Gorge conditions” of around 30 knots. The boats held together, and the out-of-country visitors will no doubt go home singing the praises of the conditions and level of talent making the trek down from Seattle.

Embracing the Dark Side

Watching my friends beat up on each other in Aeros was a little hard to watch, so I finally made the switch this year. Hence My Aero’s name (suggested by fellow Laser sailor Mark Ross) being Dark Side.

I’ve sailed the Aero several times, and it’s taken all of them – and probably more –  to flush some old Laser habits out of my system. RS Aeros are undeniably different. On the obvious side is weight of the boat (and particularly the spars). The flat aft sections of the Aero versus the rounded Laser sections certainly provide a different feel.

On the practical side, the Aero has several advantages. It’s easier to rig – especially when it comes time to hoist the sail. No more lugging the big sail around before putting it into the maststep. It’s substantially lighter to move around on shore. And it’s faster, particularly downwind when the wind picks up.

However, the Lasers (OK – ILCAs) still have some advantages, especially for youth sailing. They are certainly more rugged. Even with modern materials, you don’t get rid of that much weight without affecting the ruggedness factor. My experience capsizing an Aero (and I’ve had fair amount already) is certainly scarier than capsizing a Laser. First off, the Aero might just decide to drift away from you faster than you can swim to catch up. Hang on to that mainsheet when you go over. Secondly, the most consistent way to get onboard is over the transom. Coming in from the side on a righted Aero will likely mean it will capsize toward you. If you stubbornly try to come in from the side, as I did once, 50-degree water will zap your strength in a hurry. Right the boat and promptly make your way to the transom.

And then there are the fleets. The ILCA class remains strong, particularly for youth. There are fleets all over the world, plus world championships and Olympics. At the other end of age spectrum, Master racing in this class is unparalleled. The RS company does a great job of supporting their boats but it will be a while before Aero’s are a mainstay like Lasers.

Sailing an Aero

For those wondering about the transition, I’ll put it this way. Remember when you first sailed a Laser and everything seemed happened twice as fast as you were used to? And then eventually you got the hang of it and the rate of things was the new normal? Expect the same evolution in Aeros. Damn, things happen fast. And of course, Aeros like to move – they have to move for the high efficiency foils to work. Speed supersedes pointing. Downwind, they’re quick to react. When starting, you can’t remain quite as static as you did while holding position in a Laser.

If my 11 or 15 year old boys were to take up singlehanded dinghy racing, I’d point them at the Laser. Actually, I’d just have them use mine – I’m keeping it in case there’s a masters regatta I can attend. I guess I’d have to buy a new sail with that ILCA logo so I don’t stick out.

As long as I’m quick enough to keep the boat upright I’ll be racing the RS Aero against my old friends.

The Pacific Cup fleet is starting to enter the full on sledding part of the game. Pyewacket will soon be finished and at last look was doing 21+ knots.

Thanks to alert readers, I was made aware of two other PNW Pacific Cup boats. We’ll start with those.

Mako (Jason Vannice/Kyle Reese-Cassal. South Sound Sailing Society, Sydney 38, Goslings Rum division) Mako has been on the southern side of the fleet and is now consolidating with those to the north. She is currently in third in division on corrected time, and her main competitors are quite a bit larger. It will be interesting to see how this develops, especially if the wind builds.

Perplexity (John Wilkerson, Sloop Tavern & Port Madison YCs, Express 37, North Sails division) Early on, Perplexity had a medical emergency and transfer at sea. See Latitude 38’s coverage: https://www.latitude38.com/lectronic/2022/07/11/#navy-medevacs-pacific-cup-crewman. That all said, she’s been playing catchup on a southerly track and currently lies sixth in division with less than 1000 miles to go.

(Apologies to both crews and their fans for not covering them in the last post)

And now for the rest of the PNW fleet:

Moonshine (Marc Andrea Klimaschewski, Sloop Tavern and CYC Seattle, Dogpatch 26, Kolea Doublehanded division) I’m pleased to report that Moonshine is leading her division and must be driving the bigger boats crazy when they realize they haven’t passed her yet!

Alternate Reality (Ian, Mitchell and Darrel Jensen, Sloop Tavern YC, Express 27, Ocean Navigator class). Alternate Reality took a deep dive south and is making their way north to consolidate with the fleet. The boats ahead of her on handicap are all bigger and heavier, so it will be interesting to watch the lightweight Express 27 in straight line speed against waterline

Dash (Stephanie Arnold & Ken Machtley, Orcas Island YC, J/99, Mahina DH2) Dash remains fifth in her division. The doublehanded boats ahead of her are all capable of very fast downwind speeds, so it will be tough to find a passing lane.

Free Bowl of Soup (Erik Hopper & Douglass Schenk, Portland YC & CYC Portland, J/105, Weems and Plath) Ding ding ding, another PNW division leader. FBOS has sailed a conservative course and it’s paid with the division lead. The J/105 should have consistenltly high speeds on the run to Hawaii.

the Boss (Chad Stenwick, West Sound CYC, J/35, North Sails division) the Boss is showing that the venerable J/35 is still a good ride to Hawaii. Lying in second in division, she is trailing the Express 37 Spindrift skippered by none other than PNW transplant Andy Schwenk, who knows his way to Hawaii very well.

Lodos (Tolga Cezik, CYC Seattle, J/111, Goslings Rum division) Lodos remains sixth in a closely contested Goslings Rum division. No doubt all the Goslings boats will be pushing hard these last few hundred miles.

Such Fast (David Garman, SSS, One Design 35, Goslings Rum division) SUCH FAST is in the same class as Lodos, trailing by a fair amount.

Freja (Jonathan Cruse, Sloop Tavern YC & CYC Seattle, Aerodyne 43, Goslings Rum division) Freja has established some separation from her class, staying to the north. Currently standing fifth in division, she could move up if her northerly position pays.

Raku (Christina and Justine Wolfe, Orcas Island YC, J/111, Mahina DH2) The Wolfe’s made a bold move to the south has paid, and she’s leading her division by a good margin, and sailing in the same waters as many larger boats.

Hamachi (Jason Andrews and Shawn Dougherty, CYC Seattle & Sloop Tavern YC, J/125, BMW of San Rafael division) Hamachi is leading the BMW of San Rafael division. I have a lot of confidence they’ll close out the victory.

Blue (Michael Schoendorf, South Shore YC, Pacific Cup YC, Riptide 41, BMW of San Rafael) Blue is starting to really move, 13.4 knots at present, and I expect her to finish first in division on the water, but it will be very tough to correct ahead of the speedy boats in class. Currently she lies fifth.

Rage (David Raney, Corinthian YC Portland, Wylie 70, Alaska Airlines class) Rage is in her element, her narrow Wylie designed hull slicing up the miles at a high rate. It will be interesting to see if she can catch Westerly on the water in the approaches to Hawaii.

Westerly (Stuart Dahlgren, Royal Victoria YC, Santa Cruz 70, Alaska Airlines class) Westerly gave up the division corrected time lead when Pyewacket hit the afterburners. She is currently lying second and pretty much on the rhumb line.

Shadow II (Peter McCarthy, West Vancouver YC, TP52, Alaska Airlines class) Shadow II has made her way from the northern-most position in class to the southern most. She’s trailing the other division boats but should have a great ride into Hawaii.

Zvi (Alan Lubner, Seattle YC, Reichel/Pugh 55, Alaska Airlines class) Zvi is now in the conditions the team was hoping for, at last check going 14+ knots and looking solid for being the second boat into Hawaii.

With all of the racing that’s happening, including the recently concluded ILCA (aka Laser) Master Worlds and the upcoming RS Aero Worlds on the Columbia River, it’s easy to forget there’s lots of ILCA racing to be done. It seems that either the old folk (“Masters”) or young folk (“Youth”) are racing Lasers in the PNW these days. That’s OK, it’s all good racing. District Secretary Mark Ross has ;put together the year’s calendar. See below.

Of particular note is the upcoming Canadian Masters Nationals this weekend at the Jericho Sailing Center in Vancouver.

REMINDER

MASTERS ONLY: Canadian Masters Nationals in Vancouver BC June 24-26.

Get your boat up there!

ILCA REGATTAS 2022 IN THE NORTHWEST (not a comprehensive list)

● MASTERS ONLY Canadian Masters Nationals                    June 24-26 at Jericho Yacht Club, Vancouver BC CANADA  https://jsca. bc.ca/event/2022-ilca-canadian-masters-championships/

● VLSC Bloomin’ Algae Regatta                                                                                  July 9 (one day) at Vancouver Lake Sailing Club, Vancouver WA vlsc.org/regatta

● WIND Regatta (D22 GP Series)                                                                July 16-17 at CGRA, Cascade Locks OR  cgra.org

● CGOD & ILCA DISTRICTS (D22 GP Series)                                            July 30-31 at CGRA, Cascade Locks OR  cgra.org

                note: points apply to the ILCA-NA Grand Prix

● MASTERS ONLY Skamania Coves (limited entry)              August 5-7 CGRA, Skamania Coves, Stevenson WA  cgra.org

● YOUTH ONLY SSP Octoberfest* (D22 GP Series)               September 10-11 at Sail Sand Point, Seattle WA  sailsandpoint.org

                                                                                                                                                                                                *SSP Octoberfest is for ILCA 6 and 4.7 only.

● Turkey Bowl  (D22 GP Series)                                                                                   November 19-20 at Corinthian Yacht Club Seattle, Seattle WA cycseattle.org

● SLF Frigid Digit Regatta 2023                                                                                    January 21-22, 2023 at Corinthian Yacht Club Seattle, Seattle WA cycseattle.org

Once again we thank West Coast Sailing for sponsoring the District 22 Grand Prix Series.

The Beneteau First 40 Jazz, crewed primarily by a Pacific Northwest crew, is currently under power headed for safe haven More information as it becomes available. This year’s Fastnet has been a war of attrition, especially for the smaller boats, as they’ve fought headwinds since the start.

The mighty Zvi (nee Crossfire) on SYC’s Vashon Island Race. Nigel Barron reports from onboard :

But #hit if Bruce isn’t calling our finish time again.

Yes, Bruce Hedrick enjoys predicting these things, then watching the AIS to see how things pan out.

We’ll be reporting on this and several recent events shortly.