This week saw our first major wind event of the start of our third in a row La Niña fall/winter event. Not surprisingly, in just over a week our yearly rainfall total, with a very dry summer and a partial fall, is almost exactly on the average. Year to date we are at 26.68”, with our yearly average of 26.63”. Amazing how this is working out. We should also remember that November is traditionally our wettest month and when we have a La Niña event it means the weather will be cooler and wetter than normal.
For this weekend we will be looking at a relatively nice day on Saturday with cloudy conditions but very little rain. Sunday will see the approach of another frontal system so slightly more wind and definitely some rain. Temperatures will remain just slightly above average so all in all it will be a pretty nice weekend to be on the water in the central Sound.
For Victoria, West Van, and Bellingham expect a breezy 15 to 25 knots from south southeast while the south Sound from Tacoma south will experience light conditions on Saturday but build to 15-20 knots of south to southeast wind on Sunday.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the front that moved through early this morning and the clearing we are experiencing now. There is a weak high-pressure system (1022mb) off the southern California coast with our weak Pacific High (1029mb) at 40N 158W. The Surface Chart for tomorrow shows an easing of the gradient over the central Sound with a very impressive low (963mb, lowest of the season) moving across the Gulf of Alaska with a strong cold front that will come through the area Sunday night and into Monday.
The other charts of interest today are the upper air/500mb charts as they show a strong zonal flow today transitioning to a more seasonal meridional flow by 1 Nov. This will move the jet stream well to the south of us coming ashore in the Bay area. This will bring cooler temps to the area by mid-week.
For the STYC Race Your House folks expect 12-18 knots of southerly for the start and holding at that velocity and direction until about 1500 hours when the breeze will ease to 8-12 knots and clock slightly to the SSW. Tides won’t be much of an issue however with the persistent south wind and the rainfall we’ve had, expect an ebb current along the Shilshole breakwater and in the vicinity of West Point.
Enjoy the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)