September certainly ended on a wet note and for the month of October, we are actually a little above normal. This weekend will be the exception to what is traditionally the wettest part of the year with no rain and temperatures well above normal, maybe even in record territory. Today’s sat pic and surface analysis charts provide a very clear explanation for this anomaly.
With higher pressure to the east of the Cascades (1035MB) and a thermally induced trough along the coast, we have an offshore flow with the strongest breeze being 17 knots from the ESE at the mouth of the Strait of JdF with Race Rocks a close second with 15 knots of ESE breeze. The sat pic shows spectacularly clear conditions over the Salish Sea with the offshore breeze holding the cloud cover well offshore. There is also very little pressure gradient over the area so breezes over the inland waters are generally light.
Unfortunately, these conditions will hold well into the weekend until another front makes its presence felt late Sunday afternoon. This front is attached to a 984MB low that will move in an NNE direction and slowly intensify before coming ashore in SE Alaska early next week. This will also bring rain to the Salish Sea for most of the first half of next week. This system will also generate gale-force SE conditions along the coast. A second system will also come ashore on Tuesday.
The long-range forecast shows yet another break for next weekend with above normal temps and below-average rainfall. The week of 16 Oct really does look like the start of a fairly wet period and a more typical fall pattern.
As I mentioned above, the conditions for the Foulweather Bluff Race in the absence of any real pressure gradient look a little on the light side. The good news is that the tidal current at the FWB mark will not be killer. Max flood will only be about .74 knots at 0742 hrs with slack tide occurring at around 1442hrs.
The interesting part of how the pressure gradient is shaping up is that the most wind over the inland waters will probably be in Admiralty Inlet and the west side of the North Sound. The bad news is that conditions in the starting area will remain in the 2-5 knot range all day. A SE breeze of 3-8 knots will backfill down Admiralty Inlet from Port Townsend getting to FWB around mid-day. It will backfill down to around Pilot Pt but not much further. The nice weather and warm temps will create a more interesting problem at Scatchet Head as the heating of the bluff will cause the wind to lift off the water keeping conditions very light near the bluff.
The other charts of interest are the upper-level, 500MB charts, which show a transition from today’s roughly meridional flow to a zonal flow by midweek with the jet stream coming ashore near the CA/OR border. This is what will bring cooler temps and wetter conditions to the Salish Sea.
Enjoy this weekend but make sure the boat has the winter fenders and mooring lines securely rigged.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)