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September certainly ended on a wet note and for the month of October, we are actually a little above normal. This weekend will be the exception to what is traditionally the wettest part of the year with no rain and temperatures well above normal, maybe even in record territory. Today’s sat pic and surface analysis charts provide a very clear explanation for this anomaly.

With higher pressure to the east of the Cascades (1035MB) and a thermally induced trough along the coast, we have an offshore flow with the strongest breeze being 17 knots from the ESE at the mouth of the Strait of JdF with Race Rocks a close second with 15 knots of ESE breeze.  The sat pic shows spectacularly clear conditions over the Salish Sea with the offshore breeze holding the cloud cover well offshore. There is also very little pressure gradient over the area so breezes over the inland waters are generally light.

Unfortunately, these conditions will hold well into the weekend until another front makes its presence felt late Sunday afternoon. This front is attached to a 984MB low that will move in an NNE direction and slowly intensify before coming ashore in SE Alaska early next week. This will also bring rain to the Salish Sea for most of the first half of next week. This system will also generate gale-force SE conditions along the coast. A second system will also come ashore on Tuesday.

The long-range forecast shows yet another break for next weekend with above normal temps and below-average rainfall. The week of 16 Oct really does look like the start of a fairly wet period and a more typical fall pattern.

As I mentioned above, the conditions for the Foulweather Bluff Race in the absence of any real pressure gradient look a little on the light side. The good news is that the tidal current at the FWB mark will not be killer. Max flood will only be about .74 knots at 0742 hrs with slack tide occurring at around 1442hrs.

The interesting part of how the pressure gradient is shaping up is that the most wind over the inland waters will probably be in Admiralty Inlet and the west side of the North Sound. The bad news is that conditions in the starting area will remain in the 2-5 knot range all day. A SE breeze of 3-8 knots will backfill down Admiralty Inlet from Port Townsend getting to FWB around mid-day. It will backfill down to around Pilot Pt but not much further. The nice weather and warm temps will create a more interesting problem at Scatchet Head as the heating of the bluff will cause the wind to lift off the water keeping conditions very light near the bluff.

The other charts of interest are the upper-level, 500MB charts, which show a transition from today’s roughly meridional flow to a zonal flow by midweek with the jet stream coming ashore near the CA/OR border. This is what will bring cooler temps and wetter conditions to the Salish Sea.

Enjoy this weekend but make sure the boat has the winter fenders and mooring lines securely rigged.

Our mild fall weather will continue as the Pacific High (1030MB) now has a SW to NE orientation extending from roughly 37N 150W to 50N 135W. Combine this with a jet stream, whose flow is now meridional and coming ashore in southern Oregon, with a shift to the north as the week goes on and you can see how storm systems will be directed to the north of the Salish Sea. Once again we are so lucky to be living here, just look at the rain New York City is getting today. 3-4 months worth of rain happening in one day. Yikes!  

As a ridge of high-pressure rebuilds over our area, a northerly flow will develop and increase tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring a northerly breeze of 8-16 knots to the northern waters and central Sound. If you’re racing in the central Sound note that this is a northerly not NW flow. This will ease as an onshore flow brings a westerly breeze down the Strait of JdF starting early Saturday evening. The pressure gradient will ease early Sunday morning bringing light air to the area except in the southern part of the Strait of Georgia which will see NW breeze of 12-20 knots.

The other chart of interest is the 96hr 500MB chart which shows a distinct meridional flow around an upper-level high centered at 40N 135W. This will direct the jet stream well to the north coming ashore near Ketchikan. This will keep temperatures mild and the chance of rain fairly low for the Salish Sea for at least the next 10 days. We have a slightly elevated chance of rain for Monday as the remnants of a weak cold front drag over the area. After that, temps will start to rise.  

Enjoy the weekend!

Of course, everybody is talking about the rain that’s coming but is only part of the story. The real story will be next spring and summer because the drought we are in is simply not going to go away. So far this month we’ve had only .7” of rain compared to an average of 1.02”. For the year we are at 15.08” compared to an average of 22.81”. This will not improve much going into the fall and with the forecast of an El Niño winter, we can expect temperatures to be above normal and rainfall to be below normal. This will mean some rain in the spring, just enough to get the grasses and brush growing, and then with a dry late spring and early summer you have the perfect formula for an epic wildfire summer. Start planning now.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the Salish Sea protected by a weak ridge of high pressure but with an approaching cold front off the coast. This will give us a gale force pre-frontal SE breeze along the coast, the north end of Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juan Islands, and the Strait of Georgia.  The front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon after which breezes will ease over the area.

The Sunday morning surface forecast chart (48hr) shows a weak (1020MB) high-pressure system just east of the Cascades with an impressive 978MB low just off the coast moving in an NNE direction and projected to deepen to 964MB. This will be the strongest low to impact our weather since early last spring. Sunday will be a good day to think about adding some extra fenders to the boat and going to your winter mooring system. The wind won’t really start impacting our area until Sunday evening and into Monday morning with the strongest breeze occurring along the coast, in the north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juans, and the Strait of Georgia. The breeze will remain strong along the coast but will start to ease over the inland waters by late Monday afternoon.  

The upper-level charts (500MB) show the jet stream flow to be zonal until it is impacted by the coast when it takes a distinct turn to the NE. The flow becomes more zonal as the week goes on however it also continues to drift to the south which will bring more fall-like conditions to the Salish Sea. Just not an abundance of rain.

Enjoy the weekend!

Our relatively boring weather will continue however the temps are cooling and there are some impressive low-pressure systems in the North Pacific. These systems and their attached frontal systems are beginning to impact our weather. This coming week the tail end of a cold front will drag over us on Monday. Whatever rain it brings will be light and won’t help our ongoing drought conditions.

We mentioned the tropics in the Atlantic last week and today I have attached a very colorful chart from the National Hurricane Center. There are now three major systems in the North Atlantic with Hurricane Lee poised to strike the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The other two systems will pose no threat to any land masses except perhaps Bermuda. This is because the upper-level airflow and the jet stream have become primarily zonal. This will prevent any of these tropical cyclones from reaching the continental US. This upper-level airflow is an extension of what is happening in the North Pacific with the jet stream moving slowly to the south and now coming ashore just north of Vancouver Island.

While we have spent the summer complaining about our weak and non-typical Pacific High, it is now finally starting to round up and deepen. By the 19^th of Sept, the high will be at 1031MB with a persistent lobe extending over the Pacific NW. This combination will continue to weaken storm systems as they approach our area. The 48hr Surface Chart shows a very strong low-pressure system (968MB) in the Gulf of Alaska which will produce hurricane-force winds for Kodiak Island. So, systems are getting stronger and eventually, they will reach our area however not until next weekend.

For wind this weekend you can expect the strongest breeze to be the westerlies in the Strait of JdF. Some of that will extend down the Sound on Saturday and become southwesterly in the San Juan Islands and Bellingham Bay. The breeze will continue in the Straits over the weekend however on Sunday conditions will be light over the central and south Sound.

Enjoy the weekend!

The days may be getting shorter and cooler; however, we are still very lucky to be living in this part of the world. As we said last week, watching the tropics for hurricane activity has certainly gotten very interesting and will continue to do so. Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic has been a primary example of the new norm when it comes to hurricanes in this time of Climate Change, with an amazing display of rapid intensification going from a Cat 1 on Wednesday to a Cat 5 last night before becoming a Cat 4 this morning. This is still a very powerful storm with no clear forecast path. It could very well impact New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

Today’s sat pic for the Pacific Northwest also captures Hurricane Jova well off the coast of Mexico. It is forecast to move over that belt of cooler water that has been protecting Hawaii and become a weaker Post Tropical Cyclone early next week with no impact on any land masses.

Our surface analysis chart for today shows that our weaker-than-normal Pacific High (1021-1023MB) has become even less organized. It is, however, just strong enough to weaken the next frontal system which will move over the Salish Sea Sunday night and into Monday morning.

The other interesting charts to look at are the 500MB, showing the upper-level flow and the jet stream. The combination of our weak ridge of high pressure and the jet stream will continue to direct storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska into SE Alaska. In the progression of charts, you can also see that the jet stream is inexorably moving south. This will allow more systems into our area as well as cooler temperatures. Just not any time in the near future.

The good news for this weekend will be that while the wind may be light, the sun will be out, and the temps will be pretty close to perfect. So, get out on the boat and enjoy the weekend. Even the long-range models show this pattern holding through the coming week and into next weekend!

We received some rainfall this week, which was much needed. The good news is that the red-flag areas in the Cascade Mountains received more rain than the Salish Sea. However, we only got slightly over ¼” of rain in August, compared to the average of just under one inch. For the year, we have received 14.38” of rain, while the average is 21.79”. Unfortunately, there is no rain expected for the next 10 days. However, the 96hr 500MB Chart indicates that the seasonal trend of the jet stream drifting south has started, which will allow for some storm systems to bring rain relief to our area.

Currently, the Pacific High is weak (1030MB) and elongated, which means it can be pushed around by low-pressure systems. This will allow a thermal trough to expand along our coast, which will move inland on Saturday as a weak weather system moves across the Salish Sea on Sunday. Although the 48-hour surface forecast chart shows a cold front headed our way, it is not strong enough to break through our coastal buffer zone.

In the Salish Sea, we can expect a weak ridge of high pressure to rebuild over the coastal waters on Labor Day, which will be pushed out by another weak system on Tuesday. Unfortunately, this means we can expect predominately light air racing in both Bellingham and Maple Bay with great parties on the docks. At least it won’t be raining!

As we mentioned last week the tropics are certainly getting interesting to watch especially as we enter the most active part of hurricane season. Idalia showed how fast a system can develop and become quite destructive, especially over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Today’s National Hurricane Center chart for the North Atlantic shows no less than five active systems with one more potentially developing off the coast of Africa. Of the five shown only Idalia hit land and none of the others look to pose any threat to North America.

Enjoy the last “official” weekend of summer. Be safe and be careful with those beach fires!

Our interesting weather will continue this weekend with possibly some rain and cooler temps coming mid-week. The Pacific High now extends from SE Alaska to almost Hawaii. It remains weak (1027MB) and in its oblong configuration will continue to be pushed around by a series of weak low-pressure systems coming across the Pacific. Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak thermally-induced low-pressure system with a trough that extends from SE Alaska to the California/Mexican border. This will produce a weak flow of offshore winds through Sunday afternoon. In addition to producing some fairly warm temps, this will also have the effect of drawing more smoke and haze from BC and Eastern WA into the Salish Sea.

There are two satellite pics today. One which shows the North Pacific and one that is just over the Salish Sea. The one showing the North Pacific is interesting because it shows the weak (1010-1013MB), surface low-pressure system off the Oregon coast as well as the cut-off, upper-level low-pressure system seen on the 500MB chart.  The sat pic over the Salish Sea shows the weak system that moved over us this morning and brought a trace of rain to the area. Clearing is now occurring over the Salish Sea and that will allow temps to rise the rest of the day and especially this weekend. The downside will be diminishing air quality which we are already seeing as the AQI numbers for Seattle are already just under 100.

For wind this Saturday, the pressure gradient will ease however with the higher pressure inland over Southern BC this will produce 10-20knts of northerly over the central Sound and a lighter breeze over the rest of the Salish Sea.  Sunday onshore breeze will start to fill down the Strait of JdF bringing westerly winds of 15-25 knots. This breeze will stay in the Straits.

As we get closer to September, the tropics will also be getting more interesting as hurricane activity seems to be increasing in the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Pacific.

Enjoy the weekend!  

If you thought this summer’s weather was a little on the crazy side, you better fasten your seatbelt because this coming week could be a very interesting ride. As if what happened to our friends on Maui wasn’t bad enough, northern Baja and Southern California could be next on the weather hit list with Hurricane Hilary potentially making landfall in Northern Baja and then entering the US. Note on today’s surface chart that Hilary is a Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 125 knots and gusts to 150 knots. Hilary will weaken as it travels north but it will still be a significant storm when it makes landfall. Not to mention what else is happening around the rest of the US with more high temperatures, unseasonal rain, and flash flooding. Pick your poison. Once again, the Pacific Northwest will be experiencing “normal” summer temps and no rainfall. Pretty much a perfect time to go cruising and if you look at the AIS charts, many of you are doing exactly that.

Our Pacific high is still weak (1033MB) and still centered just slightly to the west of where it should be at about 48N and 150W. We also still have a trough of thermal low pressure on the other side of the Cascades which is giving us an onshore flow prompting a Red Flag warning for critical fire danger for Eastern Washington. As this trough shifts to the east on Saturday this will bring a northerly flow to the Eastern side of the San Juan Islands and Central Puget Sound. The Strait of Georgia will experience a strong NW breeze Saturday night and into Sunday. The Strait of JdF will be uncharacteristically light until early Saturday evening when 15-20 knots of westerly will develop.

By Sunday the gradient will ease over the US part of the Salish Sea while the breeze will continue in the Strait of Georgia. By late Sunday afternoon, another shot of strong westerly will fill down the Strait of JdF. On Monday a weak low-pressure system (1010MB) will drift over the north end of Vancouver Island with an attached frontal system that will extend down into western Washington and Oregon. While it may show as a cold front, don’t expect any cool temps or rainfall. This low won’t move very far or very fast because of a stationary upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the north end of Haida Gwai, while the jet stream has once again migrated well up into Alaska. By Tuesday this cut-off low will have drifted to SE and will be over the north end of Vancouver Island.

This will make for some great weather for us and some interesting weather to watch over the coming week.

Enjoy your time on the water!