Weather

Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 5 June, Telegraph Cove to Port Hardy, Van Isle 360

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 5 June, Telegraph Cove to Port Hardy, Van Isle 360

I’m worried that racers are not going to know what to do with this forecast. There will be wind ( 4-14-knots), probably for the entire leg, it won’t be light,ok it might be a little light for the start and the first couple of hours but after that and more importantly, it will be from astern. In other words, you will finally get to fly those large, round, dangerous, colored sails. Pretty much all the way to Port Hardy where you may need a headsail to beat down to the finish inside of Hardy Bay.

The reason for all this optimism is the low with attached front approaching Vancouver Island. The wind has already gone around to the south-southeast at the East Dellwood and  West Sea Otter Buoys and the barometer continues to fall at those locations. As the front goes through about midday tomorrow, the wind will clock from the SSE to SSW to closer you get to Port Hardy.

  • 4 June Surface Analysis
  • 5 Jun 0800 EC HR
  • 5 june 1100
  • 5 June 1400
  • 5 June 1700
  • 5 June 2000
  • 5 June Surface Forecast
  • 7 June Surface Forecast

The satellite pic shows that there isn’t much to this front so it will move right along and after I’m sure what will be a welcome layday in Port Hardy, the onshore flow will build which should give you a nice beat out to Cape Scott followed by a nice reach down to Winter Harbor. Keep your fingers crossed.

As far as tactics go on this leg, it will pay to sail the shortest possible course. Keep Pearse, Cormorant, and Haddington Island to starboard. For your final approach to the entrance of Port Hardy, keep Masterman Islands to starboard. Yes, you can sail through there, just keep track of all the rocks that are in there.

Enjoy the day, have a great sail and be safe.

Bruce’s Brief, Wx for 17, 18 & 19 May and Delivery Forecast for Swiftsure

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Bruce’s Brief, Wx for 17, 18 & 19 May and Delivery Forecast for Swiftsure

It looks like a fairly benign weekend to be on the water, especially Saturday while Sunday could be wet. We had plenty of wind today and as this weak ridge develops and shifts inland, this breeze will ease and an offshore flow will develop as the next system approaches the coast. Saturday morning will see a generally southeasterly flow over the Salish Sea in the 8-12 knot range. As we move through the day the pressure gradient will ease and the breeze will become generally light over the area. A north-northeasterly flow will begin in the mid to late afternoon over the San Juan and Gulf Islands bringing challenging conditions to the Round Saltspring Race and the Round Whidbey Race.

For the Round Bainbridge Race, conditions will start becoming light around noon and then drop from there.

By late Saturday, the coastal regions will begin to see some rain and this will move inland on Sunday. Not a lot of rain but it will also bring definitely cooler temps.

  • May 17, 500MB
  • May 17 Surface Forecast
  • May 18 Surface Forecast
  • May 19 Surface Forecast
  • May 20, 500MB
  • May 20 Surface Forecast
  • May 21 Surface Forecast

For those of you doing the delivery from Puget Sound up to Victoria on Thursday for Swiftsure, right now it looks fairly innocuous with maybe even a southerly in the morning lasting until about noon. Tides are good with a slack tide at 0830 and a max ebb around noon at Bush Point.  

Have a great weekend and remember there’s a great Boat Show in Anacortes this weekend.

Bruce’s Brief for 10, 11 and 12 May & SYC Vashon Island Race

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Protection Island: Maybe a bit too much wind. Vashon: maybe not enough. And so it goes in Puget Sound or even for the Oregon Offshore which started yesterday off of Astoria and as of the morning the fleet is going fairly slow well south of Tatoosh with a forecast for light air in the Straits maybe even an easterly as this offshore flow may persist until late this afternoon. A stronger onshore flow will develop on Saturday and that will cause the problem for the Vashon Race. The onshore flow will not only come down the Straits, but it will also flow in through the Chehalis gap with the meeting point being the south Sound and Vashon Island creating a very frustrating situation for sailors.

By mid-afternoon tomorrow there will be quite a strong flow coming down the Straits with the potential for gale warnings in the central and eastern Straits. Unfortunately, it will take longer to work its way down the Sound. Then as the sun gets closer to setting, it is once again going to become light and shifty.

  • May 10 500MB
  • May 10 Surface Analysis
  • May 11 Surface Forecast
  • May 12 Surface Forecast
  • May 13 500MB
  • May 14 Surface Forecast

With the current weather models, I have the TP-52’s and Crossfire around the long course in about 11 hours. I have the J-105’s around the short course in 16 hours. Don’t forget it’s Mothers Day on Sunday…..

Tides will not be much of an issue until early Saturday evening when the wind starts to go light.

Tidal Current at West Point.

0742       .58knts   Flood

1024       Slack

1136       .15knts   Ebb

1306       Slack

1948       .98knts   Flood

2300       Slack

As far as tactics go, as we noted last weekend, the northwesterly will build on the west side of the Sound first, just don’t lose track of sailing the shortest possible course to get to Pt. Robinson. From Pt Robinson to the bottom end of the Island could be a very light, like wind seeker light, beat. Then you’ll have to get into the constant ebb in Colvos and hope that it will sweep you up the Passage to the northwesterly.

The short course boats will be challenged to sail south in very light air until about mid-afternoon. Then it will be, sail your angles and sail the shortest possible course. Once you round the mark the short course will be to sail up the east side of the Sound. Especially working your way up under Magnolia to get get to West Point.

Overall, it should be a lovely day on the water just be sure to put a lot of sunblock on.

Have a safe and fun race!

Bruce’s Briefs: WX for 19, 20, and 21 April, CYC PSSR.

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Bruce’s Briefs: WX for 19, 20, and 21 April, CYC PSSR.

We still have some showers around the area however those should all be gone as this cold front moves on to the east. As per usual, this will bring a post-frontal, onshore flow to the area which will mean SW a breeze for the central Sound this afternoon. With a strong westerly coming down the Straits watch for our famous convergence zone to develop this afternoon and maybe into the early evening from Edmonds north to Marysville.

  • April 19 500MB
  • April 19 Surface Analysis
  • April 20 Surface Forecast
  • April 21 Surface Forecast
  • April 22 500MB
  • April 22 Surface Forecast
  • April 23 Surface Forecast

With a weak ridge of high-pressure trying to build over the area tomorrow, this will bring strong westerlies to the Straits and a nice northerly flow down the Sound and should give racers a pretty nice day on the water. You could start off with 15-20 knots of northerly which will gradually ease off starting about mid-afternoon.

Current won’t be much of an issue as you can see from tidal current at West Point.

Saturday

0700      .39knts                  Ebb

1206      Slack

1530      1.15knts                Flood

1818      Slack

Sunday

0748      .40knts                  Ebb

1236      Slack

1618      1.17knts                Flood

1918      Slack

On Saturday you should probably expect the flood to start maybe 30 minutes early because of the northerly wind flow down Sound so you’ll really want to watch COG and SOG on the beats. Eventually, it will pay to come off the starting line and go west as the wind will back from a true northerly to a more traditional northwesterly. Something to watch for.

Sunday will be a more difficult day as there won’t be much gradient over the Salish Sea and the area will begin to feel the approach of the next frontal system due to arrive late Sunday or early Monday. This will create a light southerly flow over the central Sound on Sunday morning which will give way to very light conditions by Sunday afternoon before a weak northerly comes down from the Straits in the late afternoon or early evening.

Have a great weekend and good luck on the big Easter Egg Hunt! 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, and 14 April, CYC PSSR Small Boats

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, and 14 April, CYC PSSR Small Boats

It is certainly like an almost normal April with periods of rain, more snow in the mountains, some sunshine almost immediately followed by cooler cloudy weather and of course, more rain. At least our rainfall deficit should drop from more than three inches to less than two inches.  

Today’s charts and satellite picture provide a very good visual as to why all of this is happening. The front that came through yesterday has left us with a nice ridge of high-pressure that will drift to the east over the course of the day as another front takes aim at the Pacific Northwest. This will give us a nice westerly flow down the Straits with the usual 15-20 knots of westerly from The Race over towards Whidbey Island. The inland waters will feature light and variable winds until early Saturday morning when a southerly flow will begin to develop. By mid-morning Saturday we can expect 15-20-knots of southerly over the central Sound, perfect for PSSC, just be ready. By mid-day Saturday this could build to 25 knots of southerly. This will coincide with frontal passage.

  • April 12 500MB
  • April 12 Surface Analysis
  • April 13 Surface Forecast
  • April 14 Surface Forecast
  • April 16 Surface Forecast

Around mid-afternoon, a strong post-frontal flow will begin to develop with strong westerlies (small-craft advisories in the central and east Straits) coming down the Straits which will meet up with a strong southerly flow coming up the Sound. This will, in turn, cause a very normal Puget Sound Convergence Zone to develop from Edmonds to Marysville. The predominately southerly flow, which will stay in place for most of the day over Central Sound, will shift to the southwest by late afternoon.

The post-frontal onshore flow will create light and variable winds for the central Sound on Sunday as the Olympics will act as a block to this flow. Early Monday morning the wind along the coast will become a pre-frontal southeasterly as another front approaches the coast with, wait for it, more rain. At our gardens are smiling.

We’ll have a special Southern Straits update on this coming Thursday afternoon.

Have a great weekend.       

Bruce’s Brief: March 22-24 and CYC Three Tree Point Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather , 1 Comment
  • Langley Hill Doppler
  • Satellite Image

The first week of spring was certainly interesting with my brother in LA calling to complain that Seattle was 10 degrees warmer than LA. We also had three days of consecutive high temp records and we are now over 2” behind for rainfall year to date. This will all change starting this afternoon as a cold front moves over the area. Take a look at the satellite picture and the Langley Hill Doppler Radar and you’ll notice a very nice correlation between these two and where the front is located as of 1300 hours today.

  • March 22 500MB
  • March 22 Surface Analysis
  • March 23 Surface Forecast
  • March 24 500MB
  • March 24 Surface Forecast
  • March 25 Surface Forecast
  • March 26 Surface Forecast

Usually, frontal activity at this point on the day before a race is a good thing, not so much today. As you can see from the surface charts, the low to which this cold front is attached is relatively weak(997MB), not very stable and will become weaker (1003MB) over the next 24 hours as it is dragged off to the northwest and degraded by the coastal buffer zone. This will create a problem for tomorrow as there will be some wind from the south in the morning however as the day drags on it will become lighter and lighter as the pressure gradient expands over the Salish Sea.

Tidal Current at West Point

0818     .34knts                    Ebb

1336      Slack

1636      1.00                          Flood

1918      Slack

So while we may have wind for the start, it certainly looks like we won’t be able to complete the long course as two models have the Sound pretty well glassing-off by mid-afternoon. Maybe we’ll sail a shortened course. Who knows? There will be some rain around so dress accordingly and enjoy the day. 

Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 15, 16, and 17 March. South Sound Series Islands Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 15, 16, and 17 March. South Sound Series Islands Race

The Ides of March and clearing over the Salish Sea.

The really interesting weather this week occurred over the Central US where there was a bombogenesis event. To have such an event means that you have a low-pressure system that drops 24MB in 24 hours. This low-pressure system rapidly intensified dropping 24MB in just 13 hours and brought hurricane force winds to most of the central plains along with blowing and drifting snow. The central pressure in that low dropped to 956MB. The lowest pressure we’ve seen in the central pacific so far this winter was 954MB in early December.

  • March 15 Surface Analysis
  • March 16 Surface Forecast
  • March 17 Surface Forecast
  • March 18 500MB
  • March 18 Surface Forecast
  • March 19 Surface Forecast

Unfortunately, we won’t have any where near that this weekend. It will be a lovely weekend to be on the water with temps maybe getting up into the low 60’s with the bad news being that there won’t by much wind for the Islands Race. The surface charts show the problem with a weak ridge of high-pressure setting up over central BC and extending south into the US. This will also act as a nice barrier keeping any low-pressure systems well offshore and directing them into SE Alaska. This pattern will persist into early next week with the 500MB charts showing the jet stream remaining in pretty much the same place. The good news is that this will help bring warmer temps to the Pacific NW just in time for spring!

For the Islands Race at least the current will, as usual, be going the right way in Colvos which will help the fleet get north to the turning mark where maybe the race will be finished. From the start you’ll want to find the axis of the current and ride that as you drag race from hole to hole. Then it will be a race to get to the Tides Tavern and then on to the Yacht Club for what is always a great party.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs 22-25 Feb. Saturday: Jim Depue, Girts Rekevics, & PT Shipwrights. Sunday: Frostbite (possibly!), and RVic Around the Buoy.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs 22-25 Feb. Saturday: Jim Depue, Girts Rekevics, & PT Shipwrights. Sunday: Frostbite (possibly!), and RVic Around the Buoy.

Plenty going on this weekend not to mention folks getting out to practice for the opening CYC Center Sound Series Race, Blakely Rock next weekend.

As you can see from the satellite image and the Langley Hill Radar we have a frontal system moving through the area today with a weakening low-pressure system sliding southeast from the central BC coast to off the mouth of the Columbia River by Sunday morning. This is not a particularly strong system so there will be some post-frontal breeze (westerly 20+knots) in the central and eastern Straits tonight and into tomorrow morning.  This will ease and become a southerly-southeasterly breeze(10-15knots) over the Salish Sea for most of the day before it begins to back off towards sunset.

By late Saturday another fairly strong ridge of high-pressure(1042MB) will begin to build over northern BC and this will bring east-northeasterly breeze to the northern San Juan Islands and into the Strait of JdF. Just how much cold air it will bring to the region depends on just how far south this high-pressure ridge will extend.    

  • February 22 500MB
  • February 23 Surface Forecast
  • February 24 500MB
  • February 24 Surface
  • February 24 Surface Forecast
  • February 25 500MB
  • February 25 Surface Forecast
  • February 26 Surface Forecast

As always, I’ve included the upper air charts that show the flow becoming almost straight across the Pacific by Sunday. I mention this because the jet stream got into the news this last week as a Boeing 787 Dreamliner was clocked at just over 800mph ground speed over the northeastern US as it picked up a 230mph tailwind from the jet stream which allowed it to arrive almost an hour ahead of schedule into London.

Satellite Image

So breaking it down by event, the Jim Depue Regatta can expect a fairly consistent southerly of 10-15 knots until late Saturday afternoon, should be some great sailing.

The Port Townsend Shipwrights Regatta should see the same 10-15 knots but more southeasterly as the breeze flows up Admiralty Inlet.

The Anacortes crowd will see the same southeasterly with the possibility of gusts near 20 in the morning before the breeze begins to ease about mid-afternoon.

Sunday will be a very different picture depending on where you’re sailing. In Seattle for the Frostbite Series, you’ll start off with a cold, light drainage easterly coming down from the Cascades which will begin to die about noon as the northerly works its way down the Sound. This northerly will start off light but may build to 10-15 knots by mid-afternoon.

With Victoria, this will be challenging especially in the morning as the breeze coming down the Fraser River Valley will be fairly strong, bringing 15-25 knots of northeasterly to the race area. This will begin to ease by about mid-afternoon as a northwesterly breeze in the Strait of Georgia displaces the northeasterly. This will bring a northerly of about 10 knots to the race area.

All in all, it looks like some great sailing this weekend. Just be safe, wear your life jacket, and have a great time.    

Bruce’s Briefs, February 15-17 & Southern Sound Series Toliva Shoal Race

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And another interesting week it has been for weather in the Pacific NW. At least we weren’t trying to race Toliva Shoal last weekend. Unfortunately, or fortunately as the case may be, we are between systems and out of the path of the jet stream. The front that passed through yesterday has moved on and left us with a weak low-pressure system just off of Astoria that will continue to dissipate as it moves inland tonight and tomorrow. The Sunday (Feb 17) Chart shows another fairly strong high-pressure system (1044MB) developing over the BC interior which will bring another blast of cold air down the Fraser River Valley and into the northern part of the Washington. This will likely result in Small Craft Advisories for the Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands on Sunday.

  • February 15 500MB
  • February 15 Surface Analysis
  • February 16 Surface Forecast
  • February 17 Surface Forecast
  • February 18 500MB
  • February 18 Surface Forecast
  • February 19 Surface Forecast

This does not bode well for finishing the Long Course on the Toliva Shoal Race. Plus the combination of light air and the tide being against the fleet until about 1400 hours, making for a long, cold day on the water. Luckily, the race committee has a history of reading the tea leaves pretty well and has usually shortened the course when necessary without hesitation.

Tidal Currents Dana Passage

0906       Slack

1106       1.2 knt Flood

1400       Slack

1736       2.49 knt Ebb

2130       Slack

Tidal Currents Narrows

0900      Slack

1124      1.8 knt Flood

1418      Slack

1748      3.56 knt Ebb

2124      Slack

The charts show that weak low-pressure system staying almost centered over the top of us. This will mean light (5 knots or less) southerly to southwesterly breeze over the race area for most of the day with the possibility of slightly more wind (5-8 knots) late in the afternoon. As usual, the hospitality at the Yacht Club will be outstanding so just make sure you’ve got enough fuel to power back if they do shorten the course.

Have a good one and stay warm.

Bruce’s Brief for Feb 1-3. Snow? New Low Coming with Wind

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief for Feb 1-3. Snow? New Low Coming with Wind

It’s been a great week with relatively nice weather and a stellar Seattle Boat Show. And a big thank you to all of you that attended my talks at the Show. That was fun.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a couple of key features we discussed this week at the show. The first being the frontal system that will move over us today attached to a weak 995MB Low with a weaker 996MB Low immediately to the southwest. The latter of these will move onshore and be broken up by our coastal buffer zone.

The other key feature is that relatively innocuous looking low-pressure system(1005MB) in the Pacific off the coast of California.  This bears watching because of two indicators on the chart. The first being how far it will move in 24 hours as designated by the arrow ending in an X. Immediately above the X is 83 which means that this low is expected to significantly intensify by dropping to 983MB, a whopping 22MB drop in pressure. As you can see from the 24-hour surface forecast chart, this low will become rounder, stronger, with a much better-defined front.  It’s not a large low-pressure system but it will pack a punch bringing significant rainfall(5”-8”) to the coastal areas from San Francisco south to San Diego and to the burn areas that have no vegetation to anchor the slopes. It will also bring as much as 2-feet of snow to the mountains.  The other scary part is that this low seems to like the aspect of living just off the coast of San Francisco where it will continue to pump moisture ashore along with some very breezy conditions.  This system will be one to watch.

  • February 1 500MB
  • February 1 Surface Analysis
  • February 2 Surface Forecast
  • February 3 500MB
  • February 3 Surface Forecast
  • February 4 Surface Forecast
  • February 5 Surface Forecast

What does this mean for the Salish Sea? The coastal regions will have the usual somewhat breezy 15-25 knots of post-frontal south-westerlies that will continue to clock around to the north-northwest through about mid-day Saturday. This will result in a weak and very temporary onshore flow down the Strait of JdF which will end around mid-afternoon as another weak low-pressure system will move over the area by Saturday evening.

For the central and south Sound winds will be light tomorrow morning however as the high over central BC begins to build, a northerly flow will develop over the area getting up to maybe 15 knots over the central Sound.

It’s the north Sound, San Juan Islands, and the Strait of Georgia that will see the biggest change as that high will drive a blast of cold air down the Fraser River Valley, spilling into the Salish Sea. This will be significantly colder than what we’ve seen so far this year.  There will also be significant wind associated with this blast especially in the northern San Juans and southern part of the Strait of Georgia. This will start to develop late Saturday night and continue into Sunday with the highest wind speeds out of the northeast occurring late Sunday night and into Monday morning when this area could see steady winds to 40 with gusts to near 50. With the very low temps and the possibility that as this blast runs into the moisture coming in off the Pacific we could get snow with some icing. This will bring down trees and power lines.

This snow event could then move south from Bellingham gradually weakening as it does so.

Have a great weekend.