Protection Island: Maybe a bit too much wind. Vashon: maybe not enough. And so it goes in Puget Sound or even for the Oregon Offshore which started yesterday off of Astoria and as of the morning the fleet is going fairly slow well south of Tatoosh with a forecast for light air in the Straits maybe even an easterly as this offshore flow may persist until late this afternoon. A stronger onshore flow will develop on Saturday and that will cause the problem for the Vashon Race. The onshore flow will not only come down the Straits, but it will also flow in through the Chehalis gap with the meeting point being the south Sound and Vashon Island creating a very frustrating situation for sailors.
By mid-afternoon tomorrow there will be quite a strong flow coming down the Straits with the potential for gale warnings in the central and eastern Straits. Unfortunately, it will take longer to work its way down the Sound. Then as the sun gets closer to setting, it is once again going to become light and shifty.
May 10 500MB 
May 10 Surface Analysis 
May 11 Surface Forecast 
May 12 Surface Forecast 
May 13 500MB 
May 14 Surface Forecast
With the current weather models, I have the TP-52’s and Crossfire around the long course in about 11 hours. I have the J-105’s around the short course in 16 hours. Don’t forget it’s Mothers Day on Sunday…..
Tides will not be much of an issue until early Saturday evening when the wind starts to go light.
Tidal Current at West Point.
0742 .58knts Flood
1024 Slack
1136 .15knts Ebb
1306 Slack
1948 .98knts Flood
2300 Slack
As far as tactics go, as we noted last weekend, the northwesterly will build on the west side of the Sound first, just don’t lose track of sailing the shortest possible course to get to Pt. Robinson. From Pt Robinson to the bottom end of the Island could be a very light, like wind seeker light, beat. Then you’ll have to get into the constant ebb in Colvos and hope that it will sweep you up the Passage to the northwesterly.
The short course boats will be challenged to sail south in very light air until about mid-afternoon. Then it will be, sail your angles and sail the shortest possible course. Once you round the mark the short course will be to sail up the east side of the Sound. Especially working your way up under Magnolia to get get to West Point.
Overall, it should be a lovely day on the water just be sure to put a lot of sunblock on.
Have a safe and fun race!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)