Bruce’s Briefs

Bruce’s Storm Brief – Don’t be Complacent!

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Bruce’s Storm Brief – Don’t be Complacent!

Don’t be lulled into complacency by the relative calm we’re currently experiencing in the Seattle area, the wind is coming. It just looks like our coastal buffer zone has once again done its job by slowing the approach of this system and deflecting it into BC. As you can see from the plots of wind speed and barometric pressure at Smith Island, West Point, and Destruction Island, the pressure is still dropping. The other interesting feature of these graphs is the slope of the barometric pressure line which shows how much faster the pressure is dropping up at Smith Island and how much faster the wind speed is increasing. This would tell us that, as we said yesterday, conditions will be more severe along the coast (52 knots at Destruction Island now), in the eastern end of the Straits and the northern end ofAdmiralty Inlet than in the central and south Sound.

Click any image to enlarge.

Right now, it appears the front will pass the coast about mid-afternoon bringing stronger breezes into the central and south Sound with it. This will persist through the early evening before the post-frontal conditions kick in and the pressure gradient begins to ease over the area. The next system will start to show up in the offshore waters early Saturday morning and then in the eastern end of the Straits by midday Saturday. Conditions in the central and south Sound won’t be bad on Saturday or Sunday however you should always check on conditions because there could be pockets of 20-25 knots of southerly.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • West Point 0900 Hours – Wind speed-Air Pressure
  • SMI Readings December 14 Wind speed-Air Pressure
  • Destruction Island Graph Wind speed-Air Pressure

The 48 hour surface forecast still shows what the upcoming week will be light with a succession of low-pressure systems lining up offshore. While they may be deflected to the north of us, the fronts will still drag over our area bringing wind and more rain. Not such good news for the skiers because this next system will drive the freezing level up to over 5500 feet, melting snow and increasing the possibility of some minor flooding in the lowlands.

Interesting times!

Have a great weekend.

*Special Bruce Storm Brief for 14 Dec 2018 – Check your Dock Lines!

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National Weather Service map of storm and flood watches and warnings. Click to enlarge.

As I said last Friday, it’s starting to get interesting which is why we wanted to give you a heads-up about tomorrow, especially the afternoon. This will be the most wind we’ve seen so far this fall/winter so if you haven’t gotten those winter mooring lines out or taken that roller furling jib off the headstay, today would be a really good time to get this done.

The surface chart for today doesn’t show much but the forecast chart for tomorrow shows a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system coming ashore and into the Sound tomorrow afternoon. The coastal waters could see 40+ knots of southerly with higher gusts and seas in the 20’-24’ range. The eastern end of the Straits and Admiralty Inlet will see 25-35 knots of southeasterly starting early tomorrow morning and continuing through the day. By mid-morning, the south and central Sound will see 25-35 knots of southeasterly to southerly breeze with gusts near 50 knots. The stronger breeze will be to the north of Seattle. This will continue and when the front passes tomorrow afternoon, the breeze may drop a bit and clock to the southwest however as the post-frontal flow establishes itself, it will build back into the 25-35 knot range before it starts to ease in the early to mid-evening tomorrow night.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • December 13 500MB
  • December 13 Surface Forecast
  • December 14 Surface Forecast
  • December 15 500MB
  • December 15 Surface Forecast

The other interesting feature is the tides for this storm with the high tide in Seattle coming at 1012 and being at a height of 11.72’.The next low will be at 1705 but will only go down to 5.65’ which means for the highest winds, your mast will still be well above the breakwater height at both Elliott Bay and Shilshole.

I’ve also included the surface chart for 15 Dec because it shows a very impressive 955MB low headed towards us and yes, it does say hurricane force winds. The good news is that it will probably create more rain for us on the 17th but most of the wind impact will be felt in the coastal waters of northern BC and SE Alaska.

I’ll have another update for you tomorrow.

Bruce Hedrick Receives Bryant Award

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Bruce Hedrick Receives Bryant Award
Bruce Hedrick, center, with NMTA President George Harris at left and  Craig Perry, Chairman of the Board.

At Friday’s annual Northwest Marine Trade Association (NMTA) meeting, our own Bruce Hedrick received the Jerry C. Bryant award for “the most outstanding contribution to the marine industry from someone within the marine industry.” 

For those who know Bruce, this is certainly no surprise. But for those who may know Bruce only from his Briefs here on Sailish.com, let’s just say he’s the Northwest guy who’s done everything in the boating industry including owning stores, running a sail loft, editing a magazine and selling boats. 

Most importantly, in addition to making a living in the marine industry, he’s always given back and is a tireless promoter of the boating lifestyle. He has served on the NMTA board and frequently makes himself available for helping promote events and clubs throughout the region. 

And, by the way, he’s a helluva sailboat racer. And a keen cook. Above all, he’s a good friend willing to step in at a moment’s notice.

And you get to read his weather briefs here! (Start counting your lucky stars now.) 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9 December 2018 – Getting Interesting

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9 December 2018 – Getting Interesting

The weather is definitely getting more interesting the closer we get to the end of the year, the shortest day of the year and the first day of winter. Naturally, we’ll have a celebration of the Winter Solstice on the 21st  at 1423 hrs because the days will start getting longer from that point on.

Satelletie image

The weather charts for today offer a very interesting picture of what’s to come for the weekend. While today’s analysis shows a very impressive low-pressure system off our coast with a long cold front attached, it won’t have much effect on the central or south Sound. There are two reasons for this: the first is that persistent high-pressure system (1036MB) just east of the Cascades and the second is our coastal buffer zone which will once again have a deleterious effect on any frontal system as it hits the coast. That high-pressure system is the one that has been responsible for bringing us the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this Fall. Since it is on the other side of the mountains it creates an offshore flow that brings cold air from the interior of BC and forces it through the mountain passes into the Puget Sound area. This is going to slowly change.

If you look at the surface forecast chart for tomorrow morning you can see that front from today has already been significantly degraded and our guardian high-pressure system has been weakened to 1032MB and pushed to the southeast. This will open the door for that next frontal system to come ashore late Saturday and into Sunday morning. You will also notice that these low-pressure systems instead of being sent in a northerly path are now on a more northeasterly path. Eventually, this will become more east-northeasterly as the week goes on, allowing more moisture into our area.

Click any image to enlarge.

  • December 7 500MB
  • December 7 Surface Analysis
  • December 8 Surface Forecast
  • December 9 500MB
  • December 9 Surface Forecast
  • December 10 Surface Forecast
  • December 11 Surface Forecast

What effect will this have on the breeze for this weekend? The strongest breeze today(20-30 knots)will be the pre-frontal south-easterlies in the coastal waters and the eastern and western parts of the Strait of JdF. There will be a brief respite for those areas on Saturday morning and into mid-afternoon at which point the winds in advance of the next front will once again pick up in those same areas. The winds in the central and south Soundwill be 10-15 knots from the southeast on Saturday morning becoming lighter as the day goes on.

After midnight on Saturday, the pre-frontal breeze will pick up significantly along the north coast and the eastern part of the Straits as in 25-35 knots of southeasterly. This will ease as the front passes through late Sunday afternoon. The central Sound will see 10-15 knots of southeasterly easing around mid-afternoon while the south Sound will see generally lighter conditions all day.

The next front which will bring more lowland rain and mountain snow will start to show up on Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend!       

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30 Nov, 1,2,and 3 December and Winter Vashon

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30 Nov, 1,2,and 3 December and Winter Vashon

While tomorrow’s race won’t be quite as cold as some of the past Winter Vashon races, it will still be fairly cool out there so dress accordingly and don’t skimp on the warm beverages. The good news is that when the breeze does come up you should be on the downwind leg to the finish.

The surface chart for today shows a low-pressure system off our coast heading off to the southeast. This will make the coast sometime this evening after which an offshore flow will develop over the central and western Strait of JdF. Over the eastern end of the Strait and the rest of the Salish Sea, this will become a northerly flow with the area in the central part of Admiralty Inlet seeing the strongest northerly maybe in the 15-20 knot range. It will take a while for this to fill down the Sound and into the race area.

Click any image to enlarge.

Typically this pattern will result in a light (4-8 knot) northerly in Colvos. Following the nice southerly we’ve got today, this will keep the ebb going in Colvos for tomorrow which will help get you up to the top mark. There will be rivers of stronger current in Colvos and those will tend to be in the center of Colvos Passage. You will really want to watch your COG and SOG as well as the other boats in order to find the axis of the current. Since it is a reverse start there will also be rewards for those who can keep their air clear and not fall into any of the dead zones on either shore.

Hopefully the northerly will fill to the north end of Vashon by around noon. This should be in the 10-12 knot range and I do mean northerly, not northwesterly so you’ll probably set up to sail the port gybe to Pt Robinson. This will also coincide with the start of the ebb so if you run into anti-water gybe back to the west, just don’t sail too close to Vashon and gybe back when you can make Pt Robinson.

From Robinson south to the finish you will want to stay off the Vashon shore because it will be light in there so even if you have to sail in some ebb, it’s better to stay out in the breeze. Unlike the spring and summer Vashon races, the wind you have at Pt Robinson will probably hold all the way to the finish.

Keep your fingers crossed and have a great race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, and 18 Nov. 2018

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 16, 17, and 18 Nov. 2018

It’s not the same as last weekend but it’s close, with some notable differences. The primary one being that there will be more wind in the central and south Sound on Saturday than in the north Sound and San Juan Islands. Sunday, it will be light just about everywhere with some fog in the usual places.

As you can see from the surface charts for today and tomorrow, we are transitioning from a weak onshore flow following a weak frontal passage earlier today to an offshore flow later today and into tomorrow. This will result in a strong offshore flow through the Straits of JdF with Small Craft Advisories in place for the northern coastal waters, the Straits, and the northern inland waters. This will ease over the course of the day tomorrow with winds becoming light over the entire Salish Sea on Sunday. Both days should have some sun so don’t forget that sunblock before you leave the house.

Click any image to enlarge

For the central and south Sound, we could see 20 knots of northerly tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. This will ease to 15 knots by mid to late afternoon. The reason for this is that 1042 MB high sitting over central BC that is feeding into a weak and amorphous 1025 MB hight sitting off of our coast. Both of these highs will weaken over the weekend and ease the gradient, reducing the offshore flow. This, combined with a relatively static jet stream, will keep any of those impressive low-pressure systems from getting into our area and bringing some much-needed rain to the valleys and snow to the mountains. More importantly, these highs won’t allow any rain into California to help the firemen.

So where are we in terms of rain? As of today, we’ve had .84 inches of rain compared to an average of 3.19 inches. For the year, we’ve had 25.07 inches compared to an average 28.76 inches for this date. Then there was last year where we’d had 37.81 inches by this time! Unfortunately, not much is going to change. Even though by Wednesday we’ll have another weak front approaching the coast, when it hits the coastal buffer zone, it will be significantly degraded. So I wouldn’t get those ski’s out quite yet, I would just keep enjoying the boat for a while longer.

As always, check the VHF station reports and track the barometric pressure gradient reports before you leave the dock, develop your own forecast, and keep an eye on what’s going on around you.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Weather Brief for November 9-11 and the Round The County!

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for November 9-11 and the Round The County!

Absolutely one of our most favorite races with challenging conditions, challenging tidal currents, incredible scenery, and best of all, great competition with great parties before, during, and after the racing.

Click to enlarge

This year will be no different except that, as always, no two races are ever the same. The good news is that at least for Saturday, the currents will be relatively favorable. Sunday a slightly different story with the tides being against us until Patos, at least they won’t be very strong. The really good news is that while there won’t be a lot of wind either day, there should be enough to get around the course and there shouldn’t be any rain. I have Crossfire taking about five hours to complete the course, both days.

 

Tidal Currents

Rosario Straits                                                                          Turn Point, Haro Straits

Nov 10th                                                                                         Nov 10th

0848      Slack                                                                1248      Slack

1148      Max Ebb                 1.43 knts                            1512      Max Flood            1.56 knts

1530      Slack                                                                 1742      Slack

1636      Max Flood            .29 knts

Nov 11th                                                                           Nov 11th

0936      Slack                                                                 0948      Slack

1242      Max Ebb                 1.23 knts                             1112      Max Ebb                 .72 knts

2318      Max Ebb                 3.16 knts*                           1330      Slack

*Not an error see the chart                                             1548      Max Flood            1.39 knts

 

We have a weak frontal system passing over us today after which high pressure will build over the area bringing a northerly flow over the area. For the race course, this will mean 5-10 knots of north-northwesterly in the starting area making for a colorful, downwind start and with the ebb tide you should make pretty good time down to the bottom end of Lopez. The problem will be that with the northerly flow over the Islands it will be light and shifty across the bottom of the course until you get past Eagle Point and False Bay where you’ll back into a more solid northerly for the beat up to the finish.

Click any map to enlarge.

As you can see from the surface chart for Sunday, it doesn’t change much, except for that whopping big low out in the middle of the Pacific. The high over our interior is building in strength that will act as a blocker until the end of next week. For the race course, this will mean a nice breeze of 8-12 knots from the north in the starting area and this will drop slightly after you get around Turn Point, with slightly more breeze just to the north of the rhumb line to Alden Pt. After Alden, it should be a pleasant run south to the finish with the northerly building slightly after early to mid-afternoon. The real challenge will be from Lawrence Point to the finish because the closer you get to the finish the less wind there will be in the lee of Orcas so watch the boats ahead of you as they fall into the holes and sail around them, just don’t get swept past the finish line in the ebb tide.

For the delivery home, it doesn’t matter if you’re going north or south, it’s going to be light.

Have a great race, be safe and have fun.

Bruce’s Weather Brief for 26, 27, and 28 Oct 2018

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Bruce’s Weather Brief for 26, 27, and 28 Oct 2018

It is really starting to look a lot like winter out there and this weekend will totally reinforce that outlook as we begin to deal with a series of fronts making their way into the Salish Sea. Today’s front went through between three and four o’clock this morning as indicated by the barometric pressure starting to rise at that time. This will then bring a change in wind direction starting in the offshore waters and then working inland.

As of 1230 hours, we have 24 knots from the south at West Point, we still have 31 knots from the west at Race Rocks. The wind has also come around to the west-northwest at both Hein Bank and Smith Island. These winds have to meet somewhere and that will bring a convergence zone to Puget Sound. The models are not in agreement as to when this occurs but if you track the VHF station reports you’ll have a pretty good idea and right now it looks like between 1300 and 1500 hours this afternoon. The other interesting feature is the pressure gradient from Forks (1015.5mb) to Bellingham (1015.0mb) and from Astoria (1019.1mb) to Seattle (1017.2mb). This would indicate that the southwesterly will probably slow the northerly from coming down the Sound.

Click to enlarge any image.

As you look across the Sound, you can see that the big ships anchored off of Manchester have already swung around to the southwest and that there is less breeze along the Bainbridge shore. This will be very different tomorrow as high pressure builds over the area, see the chart for 27 Oct and notice the approach of the next frontal system offshore. This will result in a strong southeasterly flow out the Straits of JdF Saturday evening while the Central Sound will remain light all day on Saturday. This next front will reach the Central Sound early Sunday morning giving the race course southerly breeze of 10-20 knots easing in the afternoon to 5-15 knots.

So, other than Saturday, this should be a pretty nice weekend to get out sailing.

Have fun, be safe, and have a great time.

 

Wx for 26 Oct 2018: Grand Prix Start

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Wx for 26 Oct 2018: Grand Prix Start

Click to enlarge.

It is really starting to look a lot like winter out there and this weekend will totally reinforce that outlook as we begin to deal with a series of fronts making their way into the Salish Sea. Today’s front went through between three and four o’clock this morning as indicated by the barometric pressure starting to rise at that time. This will then bring a change in wind direction starting in the offshore waters and then working inland.

October 26 Surface Analysis – click to enlarge.

As of 0830 hours, while we may have 28 knots from the south at West Point, we already have 31 knots from the west at Race Rocks. These winds have to meet somewhere and that will bring a convergence zone to Puget Sound. The models are not in agreement as to when this occurs but if you track the VHF station reports you’ll have a pretty good idea and right now it looks like between 1300 and 1500 hours this afternoon. This will mean that the current southwesterly begin to drop in velocity around 1200 hours and you’ll see short, sharp swings to the west at the mast head. The northerly will start as a northeasterly and then back to the northwest after around 1600.

Tomorrow looks light but I’ll have an update this afternoon.

Have fun out there and be safe.

 

Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 19, 20, and 21 October. Good through the weekend, but then the change comes.

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Bruce’s Brief: Weather for 19, 20, and 21 October. Good through the weekend, but then the change comes.

It may have been a little foggy in the morning in some spots, however overall it was just another lovely week of Indian summer weather. This will, unfortunately, end early next week as a series of frontal systems will bring rain, wind and cooler temperatures. We currently have a weak onshore flow which will bring strong westerlies down the Straits of JdF this afternoon and into the evening. As we transition to a more prefrontal southeasterly flow early next week we should enjoy a very nice weekend with perfect sailing conditions on Saturday with 10-15 knots of northerly over the central Sound with lighter conditions in North and South Sound.

Sunday will not be quite so good for wind as the gradient will ease (see the chart for 21 Oct) bringing light and variable conditions to the Salish Sea. The sun will still be out so don’t skimp on the sunblock.

Sea Surface Temperature. Click to enlarge.

Also of interest to boaters and especially fishermen is the return of the “blob” in the Gulf of Alaska. Take a look at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Chart and it is pretty clear to see. The real question is just how long will this body of abnormally warm water stay there bringing mild winter conditions to Alaska and BC. The long-range forecast has us in for a mild to “normal” winter with average precipitation. Unfortunately, average precipitation won’t do much to help us with our abnormally dry conditions or ease the drought conditions in central Oregon.

Today’s satellite picture shows very clearly our next frontal system winding up in the Gulf Alaska as it prepares to move into our area late Monday or early Tuesday. It may also bring our first big southerlies of the fall so be sure to make the boat ready for this as you tie up on Sunday after a great weekend on the water.

 

Enjoy the weekend!