It is really starting to look a lot like winter out there and this weekend will totally reinforce that outlook as we begin to deal with a series of fronts making their way into the Salish Sea. Today’s front went through between three and four o’clock this morning as indicated by the barometric pressure starting to rise at that time. This will then bring a change in wind direction starting in the offshore waters and then working inland.
As of 1230 hours, we have 24 knots from the south at West Point, we still have 31 knots from the west at Race Rocks. The wind has also come around to the west-northwest at both Hein Bank and Smith Island. These winds have to meet somewhere and that will bring a convergence zone to Puget Sound. The models are not in agreement as to when this occurs but if you track the VHF station reports you’ll have a pretty good idea and right now it looks like between 1300 and 1500 hours this afternoon. The other interesting feature is the pressure gradient from Forks (1015.5mb) to Bellingham (1015.0mb) and from Astoria (1019.1mb) to Seattle (1017.2mb). This would indicate that the southwesterly will probably slow the northerly from coming down the Sound.
Click to enlarge any image.
As you look across the Sound, you can see that the big ships anchored off of Manchester have already swung around to the southwest and that there is less breeze along the Bainbridge shore. This will be very different tomorrow as high pressure builds over the area, see the chart for 27 Oct and notice the approach of the next frontal system offshore. This will result in a strong southeasterly flow out the Straits of JdF Saturday evening while the Central Sound will remain light all day on Saturday. This next front will reach the Central Sound early Sunday morning giving the race course southerly breeze of 10-20 knots easing in the afternoon to 5-15 knots.
So, other than Saturday, this should be a pretty nice weekend to get out sailing.
Have fun, be safe, and have a great time.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)