While tomorrow’s race won’t be quite as cold as some of the past Winter Vashon races, it will still be fairly cool out there so dress accordingly and don’t skimp on the warm beverages. The good news is that when the breeze does come up you should be on the downwind leg to the finish.
The surface chart for today shows a low-pressure system off our coast heading off to the southeast. This will make the coast sometime this evening after which an offshore flow will develop over the central and western Strait of JdF. Over the eastern end of the Strait and the rest of the Salish Sea, this will become a northerly flow with the area in the central part of Admiralty Inlet seeing the strongest northerly maybe in the 15-20 knot range. It will take a while for this to fill down the Sound and into the race area.
Click any image to enlarge.
Typically this pattern will result in a light (4-8 knot) northerly in Colvos. Following the nice southerly we’ve got today, this will keep the ebb going in Colvos for tomorrow which will help get you up to the top mark. There will be rivers of stronger current in Colvos and those will tend to be in the center of Colvos Passage. You will really want to watch your COG and SOG as well as the other boats in order to find the axis of the current. Since it is a reverse start there will also be rewards for those who can keep their air clear and not fall into any of the dead zones on either shore.
Hopefully the northerly will fill to the north end of Vashon by around noon. This should be in the 10-12 knot range and I do mean northerly, not northwesterly so you’ll probably set up to sail the port gybe to Pt Robinson. This will also coincide with the start of the ebb so if you run into anti-water gybe back to the west, just don’t sail too close to Vashon and gybe back when you can make Pt Robinson.
From Robinson south to the finish you will want to stay off the Vashon shore because it will be light in there so even if you have to sail in some ebb, it’s better to stay out in the breeze. Unlike the spring and summer Vashon races, the wind you have at Pt Robinson will probably hold all the way to the finish.
Keep your fingers crossed and have a great race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)