Bruce’s Briefs

Bruce’s Wx Brief for R2AK: Pt Townsend to Victoria. The weather will show no mercy for the weak or unprepared.

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Bruce’s Wx Brief for R2AK: Pt Townsend to Victoria. The weather will show no mercy for the weak or unprepared.

We have gale warnings in the Straits right now and this will continue through tomorrow. Currently, we have 31 knots at Sheringham, 45 at Race Rocks, 20 at Hein Bank, 24 at Smith island and 26 at Port Townsend. With the GFS Model, Racers can expect 15-25 for the start at 0500 hours. This will ease as the sun comes up with the breeze from Pt. Wilson to Dungeness Spit dropping into 5-10 knot range. Think of a line from the tip of Dungeness Spit to Partridge Point. North of that line 15-20 knots of westerly, south of that line 5-10 knots of westerly at around 0700 hours. This will gradually change as the westerly fills back in so by 0900 expect 15-20 knots across the course. This will hold until the early afternoon when the next blast of westerly comes down the Straits bringing 15-25 knots of westerly. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will crank up into the 30-35 knot range in the vicinity of Race Rocks and extending as far east as Hein Bank. This will start to ease slightly after midnight dropping to about 15-knots right around dawn on Tuesday.

  • 3 Jun 0500 MM5
  • 3 Jun 0700 MM5
  • 3 Jun 1400 MM5
  • 3 Jun 1700 MM5
  • 2 Jun 1900 Hrs Strts of JdF

The other model I ran is the NAM which shows less wind than above and running the numbers for the Melges 32, it shows a max wind speed of 15.5 knots just west of Hein Bank. In these conditions, they should complete the course in just over four hours sailing on port tack the entire way across the Straits.

This scenario is also complicated by the fact that you’ll be starting in the big ebb of the day, (2.95 knots) and with wind against the tide, this will be like boating in a Waring Blender. Big steep breaking seas with a very short wavelength. The sailors with experience will get through this as long as they’ve got the right  sails and they know how to sail in these conditions. The rowboats and SUPS will be in for a tough slog.

Regardless of which model we look at, there will be wind,  so be safe and be very prepared!

Bruce’s Brief’s: WX for 3 June Deepwater Bay to Hardwicke (sort of), VanIsle 360.

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Bruce’s Brief’s: WX for 3 June Deepwater Bay to Hardwicke (sort of), VanIsle 360.

The models are not in agreement about tomorrow and that is because of this deteriorating low-pressure system (1000mb) to the west of the top end of Vancouver Island. It is already slowing and as a result it’s course may shift from east-northeast to northeast. This will bring the circulation around the bottom of the low resulting in an onshore flow with the wind (not a lot) coming down Johnstone Strait. The other models show this low just going away which will mean even less wind for tomorrow. The best guess now is something in between.

  • 2 June Surf Analysis
  • 3 Jun Surf Frcst 2
  • 4 Jun Surf Frcst 2
  • 3 Jun 0900 EC HR2
  • 3 Jun 1200
  • 3 Jun 1500
  • 3 jun 1800 EC HR2

The good news is the big boost everyone will get from the tide, so even in the light air, you’ll have some wind just generated by the boat being swept in the right direction. This will really keep drivers and tacticians on their toes. You’ll want to stay in the axis of the current and avoid being sucked into back eddies behind the points.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx Update for the VanIsle 360, Comox to Campbell River

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx Update for the VanIsle 360, Comox to Campbell River

At this hour (1700 hrs) the onshore flow is finally starting to fill down from Campbell River to the Race Area. It filled down later than we thought and unfortunately, it’s not going to last. Today’s chart and tomorrow’s forecast chart show why. That weak cold front was slowed when it hit the coastal buffer zone and that prevented it from moving to the east in a timely manner which in turn slowed the onshore flow from filling down the Strait of Georgia.

  • 1 June Surface Analysis
  • 2 June Surface Forecsat
  • 2 June 0900 EC HR
  • 2 June 1200
  • 2 June 1500
  • 2 June 1800
  • 2 June 2100

The other part is that as this developing ridge of high pressure begins to break down tonight, the gap will open in the isobars and the breeze will be very light for tomorrows race at least until very late in the afternoon when another shot of onshore flow will come down the Strait of Georgia from Campbell River. I think the forecast velocities are optimistic and while it may show 15-knots, I think if it gets to 10-knots you’ll be lucky.

I wish I had better news for you but at least the scenery will be incredible and the town of Campbell River is great!

Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 31 May, 1, 2, and 3 June, Van Isle 360 and Seventy48.

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Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 31 May, 1, 2, and 3 June, Van Isle 360 and Seventy48.

Yesterday the Pacific Northwest lost not only a great sailor but one of the classiest gentleman I have ever had the privilege to sail with. Dick Robbins, the owner and skipper of the legendary 68- foot Perry designed ICON passed away from complications of a stroke he had suffered recently. His talents went far beyond sailing having designed and built revolutionary tunnel boring machines, including the ones that dug the Chunnel beneath the English Channel. He was a delight to sail with as there was never a cross word nor did he ever raise his voice. Just always a very quiet competence as well as a love of sailing and having fun while on the water. He made the world a much better place and he will be missed. 

Lots going on this weekend and plenty of great weather to go along with it. The Van Isle 360 has a huge and very talented fleet on a very challenging course. The Seventy48 project doesn’t involve sailing but it is still a very cool event. Basically, any way you can get from Tacoma to Port Townsend by way of rowing, paddling or pedaling and by pedaling I don’t mean on land. It all has to be on the water, 70 miles in 48 hours.  They start tonight at 1900 hours going out of the Foss Waterway, up Colvos Passage then to the Port Townsend Canal or Hadlock Canal, then finish in Port Townsend. A great tune-up for the R2AK which starts on the 3rd. We’ll have a special update for that on the 2nd of June.

  • May 31 500MB
  • May 31 Surface Analysis
  • June 1 Surface Forecast
  • June 2 Surface Forecast
  • June 3 Surface Forecast
  • June 4 Surface Forecast

As you can see from the Surface Analysis, we have a weak high-pressure system off the Northern California coast and a weak low-pressure system in Eastern Washington. As our fog burns off and the sun heats up the land, this will bring a strong onshore flow down the Straits of JdF bringing with it Gale Warnings for the Central and Eastern Straits as well as a Small Craft Advisory for Admiralty Inlet. After midnight, this will ease and we should have a very nice weekend to be on the water.

For the Van Isle folks, this will mean a nice beat from Nanaimo to Deep Bay in 8 to 15 knots of northwesterly.

For the Seventy48 teams, there will be northerly of about 8-12-knots from the start until they get into Colvos Passage and then after about 2100 hours they should have just about ideal conditions for whatever manner of propulsion they have selected. After midnight, there maybe a drainage east-northeasterly of 5-10-knots in the early morning hours then as the sun comes up that will die until the onshore flow develops in the early afternoon bringing 10-12-knots of northwesterly down the Sound.

Of course, if your paddling or rowing you’re going to want to keep track of the tidal current however with most of these craft being of very shallow draft you can really get in close to stay out of the anti-water. It seems to me they took some fun out of the event by making them go through the Hadlock Canal but they probably had a very good reason for doing that. It’s just that in the flood tide you can get 3 to 3.5 knots of current in there while you could avoid that by going around the outside of Marrowstone.

The good news is that since the current always flows north in Colvos Passage, it will be a free ride until they get up to Blake Island. The other good news is that the currents in the central Sound will be less than one knot almost all weekend. In Admiralty Inlet, the max currents will be around two knots and since the shortest possible course will take keep you on the beach anyway, you’ll be able to avoid the worst of it until Hadlock.

Currents at West Point

Friday

2000      Slack

Saturday

0018      Max Flood            .72 knots

0330      Slack

0518      Max Ebb                 .47 knots

0742      Slack

1300      Max Flood            .89 knots

1618      Slack

1800      Max Ebb                 .48 knots

2054      Slack

All in all, it looks like a lot of exercise but should be a total hoot.

Be safe and have fun out there.

Wx for Van Isle 360

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing 0 Comment
Wx for Van Isle 360

It’s big. It’s tough. It’s unique. It’s fishy (at least for one night). The Van Isle 360 is such a great race,it requires it’s own Bruce Hedrick Powerpoint weather presentation. If you click on the following link you should be able to open or download the presentation.

The Bruce Hedrick Van Isle 360 Weather Outook for 2019

If you’re racing, have fun and be safe. It’s truly the race of a lifetime. If you want to read an early preview to the race, click here. If you want to hear a student radio piece on someone doing the race on Cheekee Monkee (and listen to editor Kurt talk about the race) click here.

Bruce’s Swiftsure Brief, Wx for 24-27 May

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Bruce’s Swiftsure Brief, Wx for 24-27 May

Ed. Note: Bruce is not doing his live show in Victoria this year, and we’re not sure where this post will be shared by the Swiftsure powers to be. So, please spread the word that this post is up. Thanks, and sail safe.

Wx for RVYC Driftsure, Oops, I mean Swiftsure.

This will be a great weekend for powerboaters and tough one for sailors. Today’s surface analysis clearly illustrates the problem sailors will have with a moderate high-pressure system (1034mb) off the coast and a very weak low-pressure system (1006mb) just east of the Cascades and two weak low-pressure troughs bracketing the race area. By Saturday morning the inland low will weaken to 1007mb and drift slowly to the northwest. So while we may have some residual onshore flow coming down the Straits in the morning that will weaken as an offshore flow comes down from that low. This will bring a light north-northeasterly flow to the race course. By Sunday the pressure gradient will continue to ease even further until late Sunday afternoon when a weak onshore breeze will come down the Straits. By Monday we could see a fairly strong onshore flow in the Straits.

  • May 24 500MB
  • May 24 Surface Analysis
  • May 25 Surface Forecast
  • May 26 500MB
  • May 26 Surface Forecast
  • May 27 Surface Forecast
  • May 28 Surface Forecast

With this morning’s models I have Crossfire around the long course in 41 hours, Tahlequah around the Cape Flattery course in 46 hours and Glory around the Hein Bank course in 41 hours as well.

Tidal Currents in Race Passage

0716      .4 knots                Min Ebb

1227      3.9 knots             Max Ebb

1621      Slack

1940      4.1 knots               Max Flood

2312       Slack

Sunday

0319      3.9 knots               Max Ebb

0850      .2 knots                  Min Ebb

1335      3.2 knots               Max Ebb

1718       Slack

2036      3.7 knots               Max Flood           

Where to go? Luckily we’ll have plenty of tide to at least get us past Race Passage. After that, what wind there is will probably be in the middle of the Straits. So just keep the boat aimed at the mark and get as many of the crew as possible down below and getting some sleep because night fighting will win this race.

I wish I had better news for you, just be safe and have fun.

Bruce’s Brief, Wx for 17, 18 & 19 May and Delivery Forecast for Swiftsure

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Bruce’s Brief, Wx for 17, 18 & 19 May and Delivery Forecast for Swiftsure

It looks like a fairly benign weekend to be on the water, especially Saturday while Sunday could be wet. We had plenty of wind today and as this weak ridge develops and shifts inland, this breeze will ease and an offshore flow will develop as the next system approaches the coast. Saturday morning will see a generally southeasterly flow over the Salish Sea in the 8-12 knot range. As we move through the day the pressure gradient will ease and the breeze will become generally light over the area. A north-northeasterly flow will begin in the mid to late afternoon over the San Juan and Gulf Islands bringing challenging conditions to the Round Saltspring Race and the Round Whidbey Race.

For the Round Bainbridge Race, conditions will start becoming light around noon and then drop from there.

By late Saturday, the coastal regions will begin to see some rain and this will move inland on Sunday. Not a lot of rain but it will also bring definitely cooler temps.

  • May 17, 500MB
  • May 17 Surface Forecast
  • May 18 Surface Forecast
  • May 19 Surface Forecast
  • May 20, 500MB
  • May 20 Surface Forecast
  • May 21 Surface Forecast

For those of you doing the delivery from Puget Sound up to Victoria on Thursday for Swiftsure, right now it looks fairly innocuous with maybe even a southerly in the morning lasting until about noon. Tides are good with a slack tide at 0830 and a max ebb around noon at Bush Point.  

Have a great weekend and remember there’s a great Boat Show in Anacortes this weekend.

Bruce’s Brief for 10, 11 and 12 May & SYC Vashon Island Race

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Protection Island: Maybe a bit too much wind. Vashon: maybe not enough. And so it goes in Puget Sound or even for the Oregon Offshore which started yesterday off of Astoria and as of the morning the fleet is going fairly slow well south of Tatoosh with a forecast for light air in the Straits maybe even an easterly as this offshore flow may persist until late this afternoon. A stronger onshore flow will develop on Saturday and that will cause the problem for the Vashon Race. The onshore flow will not only come down the Straits, but it will also flow in through the Chehalis gap with the meeting point being the south Sound and Vashon Island creating a very frustrating situation for sailors.

By mid-afternoon tomorrow there will be quite a strong flow coming down the Straits with the potential for gale warnings in the central and eastern Straits. Unfortunately, it will take longer to work its way down the Sound. Then as the sun gets closer to setting, it is once again going to become light and shifty.

  • May 10 500MB
  • May 10 Surface Analysis
  • May 11 Surface Forecast
  • May 12 Surface Forecast
  • May 13 500MB
  • May 14 Surface Forecast

With the current weather models, I have the TP-52’s and Crossfire around the long course in about 11 hours. I have the J-105’s around the short course in 16 hours. Don’t forget it’s Mothers Day on Sunday…..

Tides will not be much of an issue until early Saturday evening when the wind starts to go light.

Tidal Current at West Point.

0742       .58knts   Flood

1024       Slack

1136       .15knts   Ebb

1306       Slack

1948       .98knts   Flood

2300       Slack

As far as tactics go, as we noted last weekend, the northwesterly will build on the west side of the Sound first, just don’t lose track of sailing the shortest possible course to get to Pt. Robinson. From Pt Robinson to the bottom end of the Island could be a very light, like wind seeker light, beat. Then you’ll have to get into the constant ebb in Colvos and hope that it will sweep you up the Passage to the northwesterly.

The short course boats will be challenged to sail south in very light air until about mid-afternoon. Then it will be, sail your angles and sail the shortest possible course. Once you round the mark the short course will be to sail up the east side of the Sound. Especially working your way up under Magnolia to get get to West Point.

Overall, it should be a lovely day on the water just be sure to put a lot of sunblock on.

Have a safe and fun race!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3,4, and 5 May. Sloop Tavern YC Race to the Straits

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3,4, and 5 May. Sloop Tavern YC Race to the Straits

The surface charts for the weekend show a very interesting pattern. Today’s surface analysis shows a nice, round, high-pressure system off the coast yet at 1033MB it is not what we would consider terribly strong. The shape, however, and the fact that the jet stream is going to be staying pretty much in the same general vicinity, means not much is going to change for the next five days. Oregon Offshore people should take note. Today’s satellite picture also shows just how extensive this high-pressure system is as well as clearly showing that compact low-pressure system with attached front at 35N & 135W.

While the offshore high-pressure system will continue to weaken, going from 1033MB today to 1026MB on Monday, and become not so round, nothing is going to move it very far. By tomorrow morning it will have drifted slightly north and slightly to the west. This will stretch the gradient and bring lighter air to the Pacific Northwest. Sunday looks a little better especially with the tide helping to bring the northerly breeze down the Sound after about mid-day.

Tidal Current in Admiralty Inlet at Bush Point 

Saturday

0530      Slack

0836      2.66knts                Ebb

1142      Slack

1436      2.66knts                Flood

1848      Slack

Sunday

0600      Slack

0912      2.82knts                Ebb

1218      Slack

1506      2.81knts                Flood

1930      Slack

For the RTTS folks, it should be fairly straight forward with the early starters being able to take advantage of the ebb. Start with clear air and then work to the west. You may have wind for your start however it will ease as you go north. When the northerly does fill in, it will come down the west side of the Sound and be stronger over there as well. While the morning breeze will tend to be northerly, it will tend to back to the northwest the closer you get to Pt. No Pt. so after PNP just stay on port tack and get across to the mark at Double Bluff. You may get headed as you come across towards DB just get across and if the flood is starting you can work the back eddy to the east of DB to get around the mark. It may be a little light under the bluff so watch the boats ahead of you.

  • May 3 500MB
  • May 3 Surface Analysis
  • May 4 Surface Forecast
  • May 5 Surface Forecast
  • May 6 500MB
  • May 6 Surface Forecast
  • May 7 Surface Forecast

After DB you’ll want to stay on the Whidbey side because with a northerly flow coming down between Whidbey and Camano there will be some breeze that funnels down Holmes Harbor and spills over into Admiralty Inlet. This should mean if you’re beach-hopping to stay out of the tide, you’ll have long starboard tacks and short port tacks as you work your way up the Whidbey shore. It will be important to remember that this breeze is not your typical afternoon northwesterly and will go up and down in velocity, and wander around the compass.

The next question will be tougher. When to cross over to the Marrowstone and Port Townsend side so you can get to the finish. Again, use the bino’s and try to see how the boats ahead of you are doing. There will tend to be more wind on the Whidbey side and if the flood is still rolling maybe waiting a bit to cross might be an option. A lot of variables here.

Sunday it really looks like there will be a big advantage to being a later starter as the early boats will have to fight the big ebb of the day until around noon and there will be less wind in the morning. As the sun climbs that will bring more northerly and the flood will start first on the Marrowstone side. Since overnight there will be a drainage northeasterly there may be more wind on the Whidbey side. As the day progresses this northeasterly will back to a northerly before it becomes northwesterly by early to mid-afternoon.

After DB, you will probably want to work your way down the Sound on the west side as the flood tide is stronger and the breeze should be stronger over there as well. Again, watch the boats around you and after Kingston watch to see when folks are gybing to get over to the east for the finish.

Should be a beautiful weekend, just be sure to be safe and put your sunblock on before you even get down to the boat. Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Brief’s Weather for 26, 27, and 28 April. SYC Protection Island Race.

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If there was ever a great time to do the Protection Island Race, tomorrow is probably that day. The tides aren’t horrible and best of all it really looks like there is going to be plenty of wind all the way around the course.

Tidal Current at Jeff Head

0748       .33knts   Flood

1042       Slack

1442       .52knts   Ebb

1836       Slack

2100       .44knts   Flood

Tidal Current Admiralty Inlet

0654       Slack

0936       1.2knts   Flood

1218       Slack

1506       1.48knts Ebb

1812       Slack

2148       1.76knts Flood

Just take a peek at today’s Surface Analysis Chart to see the reason for all this optimism. Directly off our coast, we have a 1030+MB high-pressure system that by tomorrow will strengthen to 1034MB and along with that, develop a nice pressure gradient that will produce a strong onshore flow. Especially since that weak low-pressure system directly north of that high today will move rapidly into the interior of BC accentuating the gradient and the onshore flow. This will produce gale warnings in the central and eastern Straits for westerly winds up near 40+knots today. This will ease after midnight to small craft advisories for winds of 15-25 knots through Saturday. This westerly wind will be northwesterly at 15-20 knots in Admiralty Inlet and 10-20 knots in the north and central Sound. By late afternoon and into the early evening, the breeze will begin to ease down to the 10-15 knot range in the north and central Sound. By mid-evening and approaching midnight it will get much lighter.

  • April 26 500MB
  • April 26 Surface Analysis
  • April 27 Surface Forecast
  • April 28 500MB
  • April 28 Surface Forecast
  • April 29 Surface Forecast
  • April 30 Surface Forecast

With this wind, it should be a fairly straight-forward race to sail. Get a clear air start and then hold starboard tack all the way across the Sound to Jeff Head and then work the west side of the Sound and Admiralty Inlet all the way to Pt. Wilson. As you approach Pt. Wilson make sure everything is really battened down (especially the crew) because the tide rips are going to be nasty all the way from Pt Wilson to Middle Point (aka McCurdy Point). From there to Protection Island just sail the favored tack so that you approach Violet Point on Protection Island on port tack. You do this because there’s plenty of water all the way along the south side of the Island and if you go right up to Violet Point and tack to starboard, when the wind comes over the Island you get nice, starboard tack, lifting puffs all the way to the west end of the Island and you’ll be sailing in much flatter water than being out in the middle. As always, watch the west end of the Island very carefully and once around if you’re a deep draft vessel, don’t reach off too early. Two weeks ago there was a BIG deadhead aground in 11-feet of water at a 1.1-foot tide and sticking up at 48.13173°N and 122.94907°W. There was also not hardly any kelp out there yet. The problem will be that if you set too early in that much breeze you may have to sail off to keep the boat on its’ feet and Dallas Bank extends to the north a long way. Maybe hold the set until you’re at about  48.14159°N and you can sail safely right back towards Point Wilson on the port pole. After Pt. Wilson you’ll need to plan your gybe so you can sail on starboard all the way down Marrowstone Island to get out of the ebb. Don’t go too far into Skunk Bay west of Pt. No Pt because even in breeze it can get light and squirrelly in there. At Pt. No Pt. gybe back to starboard and work down the west side of the Sound if you’re still fighting ebb. Remember also that since the northerly will have blowing for a while, the flood will probably start early and it starts first on the west side of the Sound.

South of Pt. No Pt, and if it’s getting close to sunset, the breeze will begin to ease and clock to the north. That will be the time to gybe to port and work over to east side of the Sound for your approach to the finish.

Have a great race, be safe, and please leave your AIS on so I can at least see how you’re doing out there.