R2AK

Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 7, 8, 9 and 10 June. Downtown Sailing Series Leukemia Cup, R2AK update, and Van Isle 360.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing , 0 Comment

The last two days have certainly been interesting and today could get even more interesting as we move to the evening hours. The surface charts and the 500MB charts explain why. Todays Surface Analysis shows a trough of low pressure moving through the Salish Sea today which will allow a building onshore flow to develop which will have very different effects on the three races mentioned above. The reason for all the instability around the area, rain, hail, lightning, etc etc is that upper-level low(548MB) seen on the 500MB Chart which has been parked over us the last couple of days. By tomorrow all of that will be gone and as high pressure builds over the area we should be in for a lovely weekend and a very warm week. Unfortunately, as this high-pressure builds over us, the pressure gradient will ease and except for maybe the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, San Juan, Gulf Islands, and Admiralty Inlet, winds will be on the light side. Expect Small Craft Advisories in the Straits and SJI’s where we’ll have southwesterly winds of 15-25 knots. Late Saturday afternoon and into the evening this onshore flow will come down the Straits and into Admiralty Inlet bringing northwesterlies of 15-25 knots.

  • 7 June 500MB
  • 7 June Surface Analysis
  • 8 June Surface Forecast
  • 9 June 500MB
  • 9 June Surface Forecast
  • 10 June Surface Forecast
  • 11 June Surface Forecast

For the Downtown Sailing Series kickoff event, the Leukemia Cup, expect light winds and expect to have a great time requiring lots of sunblock!

For R2AK, the lead boat, Pear Shaped Racing, just sailed by Campbell River at 1500 hrs however the tide is now against them so we’ll see if they can make it through Seymour Narrows as the tide will build to 12.5 knots at 1816 hrs. Slack won’t be until 2150 hrs tonight. This will allow the next part of the fleet to slowly compress before Campbell River. There may be a big restart at Campbell River when the tide turns.

For the Van Isle 360 folks, they had a great sail from Telegraph to Port Hardy two days ago and this morning started the leg from Port Hardy to Winter Harbour, the first of the legs to get to the outside of Vancouver Island. I had expected them to be in more of a northwesterly by now however the TP52’s are only making 7-8 knots and aren’t quite to Cape Scott. There is wind out there with Solander on the Brooks Peninsula reporting 26-knots from the northwest. So we’ll see when that gets to the fleet and sends them flying down to the finish at Winter Harbour.

As I said, get ready for a warm week and don’t forget to put the sunblock on before you leave the house.

Seventy48 Photos

Kurt Hoehne Community , 0 Comment
Seventy48 Photos

I’m still hoping to get some inside stories from the Seventy48. For those of you unaware, last weekend’s race was a non-sailing (all human powered) prelude to the R2AK. Seventy miles in 48 hours. The course, simply from Tacoma to Port Townsend. The winners Greg Spooner and Thiago Silva did it in about 11 hours in the two person shell Imua.

Jan Anderson stepped up once again with some great shots. Like the R2AK, this event is much more about participation than it is the winning and losing. Check these pix out, the check out the full gallery.

Web site here.

If anyone wants to write about their Seventy48 experience, please send it my way.

Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Leg 2, Victoria to Ketchikan 2019

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Leg 2, Victoria to Ketchikan 2019

Today’s weather picture presents a complex pattern with a little bit for everyone. The current Surface Analysis has a series of three weak low-pressure systems strung across the Pacific Northwest from east of the Cascades to off of the Strait of JdF to off of the north end of Vancouver Island. The attached frontal system off of the center low will cross over the coast this afternoon and is already bringing rain to the south Sound. By tomorrow morning all that will be left of these systems is a weak low-pressure system (1013mb) that will be drifting off the central Vancouver Island coast. This system will not move very much over the next 24-48 hours.

  • 5 June Surf Analysis
  • 6 June Surf Forecast
  • 6 June 1200 EC HR
  • 6 June 1500 EC HR
  • 6 June 1800 EC HR
  • 6 June 2100 EC HR
  • 7 June 0000 EC HR
  • 7 June Surf Forecast 2

For R2AK this will mean a bit of a light air start in a south to southeasterly breeze. Great for the rowers and paddlers. By mid-afternoon, onshore flow will develop bringing a westerly down the Strait of JdF. This westerly will become southwesterly through the San Juan and Gulf Islands of 10-15 knots, great for the sailors. Then it will be time for the first big decision:  Which way to get north to Nanaimo, go inside and up Trincomali Channel exiting at Porlier Pass or outside through Boundary Pass and into the Strait of Georgia, an additional 10 miles? And then there’s the current at Porlier Pass. Racers will have the big flood of the day with them until about 2030hrs, Thursday night. Rowers and paddlers will simply go the shortest possible course.

I ran both routes for the Melges 32 and if they go up the inside (about 10 miles shorter) I have them making Porlier at 2000 hours and arriving at Entrance Island at midnight. If they went outside on the longer course they would sail an additional seven miles on top of the 10-mile longer course and they would arrive at Entrance Island at almost exactly the same time.

This basically agrees with two of the models which will have more wind in the Strait of Georgia but to stay in the wind you’ll have to sail up the east side by Tsawwassen and the Roberts Bank. If you do go up the inside it will be lighter but a much shorter distance. Do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya?

After Entrance, the southerly-southwesterly breeze will drop as the onshore flow works its way down the Strait of Georgia creating a zone of light air. After which the breeze will build to about 8-12 from the northwest and that will last until about mid-morning on Saturday when it will go light once again as racers approach Campbell River and the big tidal gate at Seymour Narrows. As in the past, if one boat can make it through and close the door on the fleet behind, that can be the entire race. 

Good luck, have a great race and be safe. I’ll continue to update the weather as long as my boss will let me.

Bruce’s Wx Brief for R2AK: Pt Townsend to Victoria. The weather will show no mercy for the weak or unprepared.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, r2ak, Racing 0 Comment
Bruce’s Wx Brief for R2AK: Pt Townsend to Victoria. The weather will show no mercy for the weak or unprepared.

We have gale warnings in the Straits right now and this will continue through tomorrow. Currently, we have 31 knots at Sheringham, 45 at Race Rocks, 20 at Hein Bank, 24 at Smith island and 26 at Port Townsend. With the GFS Model, Racers can expect 15-25 for the start at 0500 hours. This will ease as the sun comes up with the breeze from Pt. Wilson to Dungeness Spit dropping into 5-10 knot range. Think of a line from the tip of Dungeness Spit to Partridge Point. North of that line 15-20 knots of westerly, south of that line 5-10 knots of westerly at around 0700 hours. This will gradually change as the westerly fills back in so by 0900 expect 15-20 knots across the course. This will hold until the early afternoon when the next blast of westerly comes down the Straits bringing 15-25 knots of westerly. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will crank up into the 30-35 knot range in the vicinity of Race Rocks and extending as far east as Hein Bank. This will start to ease slightly after midnight dropping to about 15-knots right around dawn on Tuesday.

  • 3 Jun 0500 MM5
  • 3 Jun 0700 MM5
  • 3 Jun 1400 MM5
  • 3 Jun 1700 MM5
  • 2 Jun 1900 Hrs Strts of JdF

The other model I ran is the NAM which shows less wind than above and running the numbers for the Melges 32, it shows a max wind speed of 15.5 knots just west of Hein Bank. In these conditions, they should complete the course in just over four hours sailing on port tack the entire way across the Straits.

This scenario is also complicated by the fact that you’ll be starting in the big ebb of the day, (2.95 knots) and with wind against the tide, this will be like boating in a Waring Blender. Big steep breaking seas with a very short wavelength. The sailors with experience will get through this as long as they’ve got the right  sails and they know how to sail in these conditions. The rowboats and SUPS will be in for a tough slog.

Regardless of which model we look at, there will be wind,  so be safe and be very prepared!

R2AK Start – Following Wild Card, and Good Luck to All

Kurt Hoehne r2ak 1 Comment
R2AK Start – Following Wild Card, and Good Luck to All

In a couple hours (at noon) the intrepid R2AK adventurers will be starting from Victoria for Ketchikan. They might have it slow going at the start, but a northwesterly should develop later in the day for the sailors to take advantage of. And while there’s a certain amount of competition for the $10K first prize, and of course the steak knives second prize, this remains more of an adventure than a race for most of the fleet.

We’ll be following Andy Cross and Team Wild Card, a Santa Cruz 27. I’ve done part of the course with Andy already on  the Van Isle 360 aboard Double Take. You can find Andy’s posts on Threesheets Northwest, but when he gets out of range of a good Internet connection he’ll be texting some reports out, which I’ll post on sailish along with a few words about how the race is going. And when there’s a Threesheets post – I’ll post parts of it here, and deliver a bit more info on the team, which basically took form on D Dock at Shilshole.

Also Bruce Hedrick is going to be watching the weather. Check out his latests “Briefs” here and here. He’s looking at doing an update for tomorrow.

Again, good luck to all the adventurers, and once again to Jake Beattie and his crew for coming up with this race and keeping it going!

Here’s part of Andy’s Threesheets post about The Proving Ground leg:

R2AK 2018: It’s go time in Victoria!

by  on June 17, 2018 in Events, Features, News, Racing 2
UPDATE, June, 17:

The first rays of sunshine trickle through the fleet.

Tucked into the port pipe-berth on Wild Card, our team’s spritely Santa Cruz 27, I woke quickly to the sound of seagulls saying good morning while cruising over Victoria harbor. Rubbing my eyes, I looked at my watch for the time: 6 a.m.

Six hours to go time.

After a couple lay days, we’re finally about to shove off and get this great big 750-mile adventure to Alaska rolling again. I’m ready. Our team is ready. From cruising the docks, checking out other boats and meeting the teams, it seems like lots of other competitors are, too. And if the smiles and laughter from last evenings impromptu happy hour were any indication, people are definitely having fun.

Right now the wind is supposed to be light at the high noon start time (weather brief here), which might suit paddlers and pedals until the sailors can hook into a breeze. Fortunately, as the day wears on and the fleet heads around the bottom corner of Vancouver Island, we’ll have a favorable current to do it on. From there it’s going to be anyone’s ballgame.

Get your trackers on, folks!

UPDATE, June, 15: The fourth incarnation of the Race to Alaska got underway yesterday on Port Townsend Bay and conditions did not disappoint.

A gorgeous sunrise greeted racers right after the start.

When the gun went off at 5 a.m., all manner of craft were on or near the line in a sort of dance that can only happen during this race. Standup paddleboards, kayaks, sailboats, row boats and home-built pedal boats jockeyed for position as a modest southerly wind and ebbing current coaxed racers out into the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

For Team Wild Card, our start left a lot to be desired. A lot. I botched it. Fortunately, our team stayed cool and once out into the Strait we used the now westerly breeze to rocket northwest with focus. Our capable Santa Cruz 27 skipped over a building sea state that never fully soaked the boat, and we finished in 5-and-a-half hours in 11th place. It was one of those sails that you want to bottle, brand and sell — it was that good.

Team Wild Card sending it across the Strait of Juan de Fuca. (And yes, we put a trapeze on an SC27).

Meanwhile, other teams were crushing it too. Team PT Watercraft finished first with Team Sail Like a Girl coming in second and Team Strait to the Pool Room ringing the bell shortly there after.

As of noon today, some folks are still working their way towards Victoria’s inner harbor. Here’s an update from Race Boss Daniel Evans: “Mulig is trying to cross the straits but being swept West. Tri-Harder left out of Sequim Bay today and is expected to finish Stage 1. Fly Baby Fly after suffering mechanical issues late last night was towed into Oak Bay by C-Tow Marine Assist. Dock Rat completed Stage 1 after being anchored in the harbor. WaterWorld Impending has pulled out after losing a prop but is hoping to sail over to Victoria for the fun of it on Saturday. Way to make lemonade, WaterWorld.”

The race to Ketchikan kicks off again Sunday at noon — tracker is here!

There’s more here on Threesheets Northwest.

 

Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Start – Fight the Ebb, Northwesterly Coming

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs 3 Comments

Ed. Note: Please all you R2AKers please let the others know about this post and that Bruce intends on updating it. We’re rooting for each and every one of you, and just can’t help but watch!

The charts haven’t changed much since yesterday except that a secondary high-pressure system is trying to develop over the interior of BC to the NE of Vancouver Island. This is having the effect of bringing northerly winds to central Strait of Georgia. Not sure about the readings at Entrance Island but it shows 30 knots from the NNW, 11 knots from the WNW at Halibut Bank, 21 knots from WSW at Ballenas, and 20 knots from NW at Sisters. This will all change overnight as the high over the interior begins to weaken and move to the east.

In the meanwhile, you can see from the satellite pic there is a front to the west of the high that has set up along our coast. What’s interesting is that neither system is very strong. The interaction between the two systems will have the overall effect of weakening both with the front probably not being able to make it over the high and the high simply not moving.

This will make the start at noon tomorrow interesting in that racers will have an ebb to help them out of the harbor and just not a lot of wind. Once clear of the harbor it will be just working the beach to stay out of the ebb and use the back eddies to work your way to the north. The flood will start about 1430 hours and last until about sunset. By mid-afternoon, there will be a nice breeze from NW over the Gulf Islands including Trincomali Channel. This is also where the models begin to diverge with the wind strength in the Strait of Georgia ranging from 10-15 in one to 15-25 in another, all from the NW. This will tend to build slightly over the late afternoon and into the early evening hours in the Strait, not so much inside the Gulf Islands.

For the sailors, this will, as we said yesterday, mean going up the inside to Porlier Pass and hopefully making it through with the flood before about 2130 hours. For the rowers and SUPS just go the shortest possible distance.

The breeze will hold to the NW of Nanaimo however after that as you can see from the Surface Charts, the isobars will spread and the breeze starts to drop off the closer you get to Campbell River and the strongest tides on the course. Don’t shoot the messenger.

Since I can’t help myself and I’m addicted to watching this race, I’ll provide another update on Monday.

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the incredible scenery.

Bruce’s Brief for June 15, 16 & 17 Preliminary R2AK w/ Update Tomorrow

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief for June 15, 16 & 17 Preliminary R2AK w/ Update Tomorrow

What can we say except it’s going to look a lot like summer around here for the foreseeable future. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s and not really any extreme winds around even in the Straits. The surface charts show a nice high-pressure off the coast that is not going to move very far or very fast because the jet stream is simply going over the top of it. The only place on the coast that will be breezy is the section from the mid-coast of Oregon south to just north of San Francisco. There will still be a weak onshore flow coming down the Straits that could bring 15-20 knots of westerly this afternoon and Saturday afternoon as well. After that, the high will just sit over us bringing us dry and warm conditions. The perfect time to be out on the boat.

Click to enlarge any image:

For the folks leaving at noon on Sunday for Ketchikan in the R2AK, this will present some very interesting choices. It’s looking to be light for the start out of Victoria with a flood tide starting around 1430 hrs. This will be perfect for the rowers and the SUP folks and they can go the shortest possible course to get up to Nanaimo. The sailors will probably go up Trincomali Channel and then out Porlier Pass to get into 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the Strait of Georgia. Once you get north of Nanaimo the breeze will back off and stay light at least until Wednesday. Right now it looks like getting through Seymour Narrows and Johnstone Strait will be a challenge because of the lack of wind. We’ll see.

The plan is to update this forecast tomorrow afternoon when the new models are released.

In the meanwhile, enjoy what will be a glorious weekend!

Bruce’s Brief June 14-15 R2AK

Bruce Hedrick Racing, Weather 1 Comment
Bruce’s Brief June 14-15 R2AK

While it did get breezy in the Strait of Georgia, it certainly didn’t get as light as we thought it would from Nanaimo to Campbell River. This allowed some well sailed multi-hulls to get a lead and make it through the tide gate at Seymour Narrows. There are a whole mess of boats waiting for the favorable tide at Seymour Narrows and they should get shot through this evening. As of 2230 hours, five boats have made it through and are well on their way to round Cape Caution tonight and three of them are setting up for what should be a great race to the finish in Ketchikan.

The reason is that early Wednesday morning the next front will be getting to the Hecate Strait with another one right behind it on Thursday morning. This will mean breezy conditions (25-35 knots from the SSE)for the next 24 to 36 hours. This could mean 200 to 250 mile days for the tri’s and if they can hold together, avoid logs, and stay upright they could finish late Thursday or early Friday. This southerly will extend over the entire race course from Nanaimo to Bella Bella, it won’t be as breezy but it will certainly help the middle part of the fleet to get through Johnstone Strait and around Cape Caution.

After that, it’s going to go light again.

Ed. Note: The race within a race, for the $10K boat buy back offer, has got me really intrigued. There’s no way any of the Farrier trimaran types, but according to the race’s first podcast, the Ketch Me if U Can team with the Nacra 20 have their eyes on that prize and they’re in a comfy (for now) 5th place on the water. Who will take the $10K and fly home? –Kurt

Bruce’s Brief’s: R2AK Start from Victoria

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief’s: R2AK Start from Victoria

As we said yesterday, it’s a very complex picture and the models are not at all in agreement. As you can see from the surface charts, there isn’t much of a gradient. After tomorrow it doesn’t look much better, however one of the models has the Strait of Georgia getting nasty from 0100 hrs on Monday until 1200 on Monday. By nasty, I mean 25-30 knots from the west-northwest. Remember this is only one model.

The rest of the models still have it light for the start and staying that way until around 2300 hours tomorrow (Sunday) night when a light west-northwesterly will fill down Trincomali Channel first and then into the Straits. By 0200 hrs Monday this could build to 20 knots in the Straits before it starts to back off around 0800 hrs. As the next front approaches, the breeze will continue to drop before it gets really light and variable starting on late Tuesday afternoon.

By noon on Wednesday, as the front get closer, a light southeasterly will fill in over the race area.

So the question remains, which way to go when? For the rowers and paddleboarders, it’s still the shortest possible course. For the sailors, it’s going to be a question of when you get the breeze and when you are going to hit the tide gates. You will need to monitor the VHF and track the wind reports at Halibut Bank, Entrance Island, Ballenas, Sisters, and Sentry Shoals. After that, it’s going to get light and the tides at Seymour Narrows will be critical. Johnstone Strait won’t be horrible but the question will be if the rowers and paddleboarders can build enough of a lead getting around Cape Caution before the sailors get into the southeasterly in Queen Charlotte Sound. That southerly/southeasterly will likely carry everyone to Bella Bella and then to Ketchikan.

Bruce’s Brief’s: 10 & 11 June 2017, Leukemia Cup Saturday, & Start of R2AK from Victoria on Sunday

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 2 Comments
Bruce’s Brief’s: 10 & 11 June 2017, Leukemia Cup Saturday, & Start of R2AK from Victoria on Sunday

The Proving Grounds section of the R2AK was certainly that yesterday as the front passed over the course from Pt. Townsend to Victoria. If you were still out in the Straits when the post-frontal westerly filled in, you got hammered as the breeze built to 40+knots with gusts to near 50 knots. The front slowed as it hit the coast and was about 45 minutes to an hour later than we had expected however we tend to err on the side of caution especially when there are small vessels like paddleboards involved in an open water crossing where there will be nowhere to hide or duck into.

As you look at the surface charts for the weekend you see an evolving and complex weather picture, especially for the folks going to Ketchikan.The bad news for Leukemia Cup is that unless you’re willing to stay on the water until late Saturday afternoon, there isn’t going to be much wind. However, since it’s part of the Downtown Sailing Series and for a really important cause, who cares, plus you can use your engine to complete the course.

For the rest of Puget Sound, it’s not going to be much different. Light air, partly cloudy conditions, an occasional light rain squall, really more like the spring we never had. The only place where there will be wind will be the central and eastern Straits of Juan de Fuca and it will be cranking up there especially in the late afternoon.

As I mentioned, this is a complex weather picture that will provide the racers going to Alaska with some unique challenges and not of the high wind variety. The key to this is yet another pesky upper-level low-pressure system just off our coast and north of the jet stream which is keeping the Pacific High from setting up in its usual position. This could be the year that rowers and paddleboarders give the sailing crowd fits. There simply isn’t going to be a lot of wind for the first three to five days except for maybe a 12 hour period from midnight Sunday until noon on Monday and then pretty much only in the area from Campbell River south to the mid-Gulf Islands. In that time frame expect the breeze to be from the northwest in the 10-20-knot range. After that, it’s going to stay light as another weak frontal system lazily approaches coastal BC. By light, I mean 0 gusting to 5-knots from Campbell River to Port Hardy. As the front brushes the coast, the race course will start to see a light southeasterly on Thursday morning, 5-8-knots.

The start on Sunday will be a challenge for everyone because max ebb is one hour before the start with the slack before the flood being at around 1500 hours. There will also be very little breeze. The wind will fill down from the northwest in the early evening and when it does, there will be wind in Trincomali Channel. Sailors will then have to calculate if they can hit the flood at Porlier Pass to get out to the Strait of Georgia where the wind will be slightly stronger and last longer.

Currents at Porlier Pass

Of course, in a light air scenario, the key for the rowers and paddleboarders will be traveling the shortest possible course and hitting the tidal gates at the right time at Dodd Narrows and Seymour Narrows. If they can get through there and slam a tide door on the sailors they will be able to get all the way out Johnstone Strait fighting only the tide.

Currents at Dodd Narrows

They will also have the ability to work the back eddies along the beach to avoid the worst of the tide. If they can do that and then get out and around Cape Caution in a southerly breeze for the rest of the trip past Bella Bella and onto Ketchikan, they could finally take one from the sailors.

I will try to get another update done late on Saturday because this weather picture is by no means stable.

Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Editor’s Note We are all very lucky to have Bruce’s analysis on the weather scene and guidance on the race course. While Bruce eagerly provides these Briefs on sailish.com, he is also available for more specific weather analysis and routing. You can learn more about Bruce here. Email him if you would like to see him tackle a particular weather issue here on sailish.com or tackle a weather challenge privately.