Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, and 29 July. Cut and paste from last week. Pacific Cup is wrapping up, and NW boats doing great!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, and 29 July. Cut and paste from last week. Pacific Cup is wrapping up, and NW boats doing great!

Finally, the Pacific High is setting up in a normal position and with a thermal low-pressure trough inland, the onshore flow will continue down the Straits keeping the smoke from the wildfires in eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and east BC on the other side of the Cascades. So once again breezes in the central and south Sound will be light while afternoon breezes in the Strait will be brisk with the possibility of small craft advisories.

There is also some discussion that a frontal system will move over the area on Monday and into Tuesday bringing the possibility of RAIN? I use the question mark because it just doesn’t look like this system has that much moisture and will degrade as it encounters the coastal buffer zone. We can always hope for rain because we can use it as the fire danger is extremely high with no other real rainmakers in sight. We will keep watching.

As usual, boats from the Pacific NW are doing very well in this year’s Pacific Cup. As we said, the early starters got hampered by very light air leaving San Francisco. The later starters scored with more normal conditions. No big surprises in the results as the TP 52 Saga was first to finish in 7 days 12 hrs with the mighty Rage from Portland only 7 hrs behind after having given Saga a real run for the first-to-finish trophy and then beating them on corrected. First overall will be the J-125 Velvet Hammer finishing in 8 days 14 hours.

In the Team Standings CYC Seattle is leading with Royal Vic in third place. Other boats doing well are the J-35 The Boss (Wayne is smiling), Morning Star, Joy Ride, Moonshine, Pell Mell, The Fugitive, Gilligan, the Westsail 32 Hula, Wilder, Fiasco, Planet Express, and Chinook.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 July. Summer is here, get out and enjoy it, remember fire danger is still increasing.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 July. Summer is here, get out and enjoy it, remember fire danger is still increasing.

Not much has changed since last week. We still have a weak Pacific High offshore (1022MB) and a lobe of that high centered over western Washington. We also still have a thermal trough over eastern Washington. This will keep temps cookin’ over eastern Washington and with that pressure gradient and temperature differential this will occasionally drive an onshore flow down the Strait of JdF, especially on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with the potential for gale warnings in the eastern Strait Sunday evening.

The rest of the Salish Sea will have generally light conditions with occasional spillover of NW breeze coming down the Sound from the Strait. With this configuration, there is still no rain on the horizon. That’s the bad news, the good news is that with this generally onshore flow, Mother Nature’s Air Conditioning will be working and that will keep our temps relatively mild, especially compared to the rest of the country.

The other charts to look at are the 500MB or upper-level charts and what’s interesting is that those two upper-level, cut-off low-pressure systems are still in place since there is no jet stream to move them. This pattern will hold well into next week and probably through next weekend.

For the Pacific Cup folks the early starters definitely had a couple of very slow days. The last starters, yesterday, are experiencing much better conditions and are rapidly closing in on the first starters. The fleet will still experience less wind than what we would consider “normal” for the next 2 days after which the Pacific High will finally start to set up properly giving the fleet a nice ride to Kaneohe Bay. The TP-52 Saga should make the crossing in about 8.25 days to be the first boat to finish.

Enjoy the weekend and as usual, wear sunblock, be careful with outdoor fires and keep checking the weather before you head out! 

Seattle Sailor Shawn Dougherty saved in Chicago Mackinac MOB

Seattle Sailor Shawn Dougherty saved in Chicago Mackinac MOB

Well-known and highly experienced Seattle racer (and skipper of the J/125 Hamachi) got a literal taste of Lake Michigan during the recently concluded Chicago to Mackinac race. The fleet was blasted by severe storms, so much so that the elapsed record was shattered by the Andrews 80 Maverick. Here is a video of interviews with the skippers of the Callisto and Madcap, skippers of the boat Dougherty fell off and was rescued by respectively, and Dougherty himself. These are very interesting interviews as they show how today’s MOB equipment and procedures facilitated a quick and successful rescue at night.

Sail Sand Point Fundraiser July 25

Our friends at Sail Sand Point remain committed to getting people of all walks of life on the water. This is a chance to provide some support, have a good meal and share the evening with fellow sailors. If you’re unfamiliar with Sail Sand Point, check it out.

From Seth Muir, Executive Director, Sail Sand Point:

Sail Sand Point, Seattle’s community nonprofit sailing center on Lake Washington, serves over 15,000 people each year with their sailing programs. On Thursday, July 25th from 530-9pm we are hosting their annual summer fundraising dinner on the gorgeous porch of the Magnuson Cafe and Brewery to raise funds for their youth sailing programs. This year we are honoring WA State Rep Gerry Pollet with their Community Impact Award as well. Tickets are available HERE and they come with live music, dinner and local beer/wine and ciders, as well as access to exciting auction, raffle items and a chance to raise a paddle for kids’ sailing. Or if you’re interested in making a donation ‘in lieu of attending’, that can be done through their secure website here. Come Party on the Porch for youth sailing!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, and 15 July. Start of Pacific Cup

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, and 15 July. Start of Pacific Cup

With Beryl striking Texas and then traveling north and dumping rain followed by blazing heat it has been quite a week for weather. In the Pacific Northwest, we have had great cruising weather and fun evening racing on the Sound. It was a bit warm earlier in the week but compared to the rest of the country, we’ll take it!

Today’s surface analysis chart still has the Pacific High trying to find itself a home for the summer, which is not good news for the folks going on the Pacific Cup. More on this later. For today the Pacific High is weak and elongated so not much stability yet with one high centered at 43N 138W at 1032MB, and a second one at 38N 173W at 1036 Mb. Between the two highs is the remnant of a weak (1026MB) low at 45N 145W, just enough to keep the Pacific High from strengthening and becoming more stable. This low shows up nicely on today’s Sat Pic.

This configuration will keep the weather in the Pacific NW just about perfect, for powerboating. We will get the afternoon westerlies in the Strait of JdF that will, at times, build to gale force so if your traversing that area, pay attention. The Strait of Georgia will also be breezy on Saturday with a NW wind to 25 knots. The rest of the Salish Sea will be light and variable.

The first start for the Pacific Cup will be on Monday the 15th and as we always say about staggered starts: Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you. This year the early starts will be beating into a light SW breeze while the later starts especially for the big boats on the 18th will have a more traditional NW breeze of nearly 20 knots. As always, this will be a fun one to watch.

Enjoy the weekend, use the sunblock, remember that the water is still cold, the fire danger is still increasing, and don’t tell your friends in the Mid-West and East Coast about the weather we are enjoying. Have a safe one.      

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30 June and 1 July. The June gloom is leaving, with true summer here by the 5th! As usual!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30 June and 1 July. The June gloom is leaving, with true summer here by the 5th! As usual!

So, our rainfall trend is unfortunately continuing so while we may have a bit of light rain on Sunday we will likely end up about .16” behind for the month even after our very wet start. For the year we are currently about 4” behind which is better than last year when we were 6.1” behind. The good news is that compared to the rest of the country we will remain unusually cool for July!

The surface analysis chart for today continues to show a weak Pacific High trying to set up for the summer. The good news is that by 2nd of July (96hr Surf Frcst Chrt) it is finally starting to find its identity. Pacific Cup racers won’t begin until the 15th of July, so plenty of room for change. We also still have another weak low-pressure system (999MB) with an attached frontal system in the Gulf of Alaska that will drag over us on Sunday. After that, the weather will remain fairly calm and even summer-like for the next week.

As you work through the charts for this weekend, you’ll notice that there will continue to be a lack of any kind of pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. Great news if you’re a powerboater, but not so good if you want to sail. So don’t expect much wind except in the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF Sunday and Monday night as a thermal westerly will slowly build and then ease after midnight.

The other charts of interest are the 500MB which show the jet stream coming ashore in Whittier, Alaska today and then slowly coming south over the rest of the forecast period. Then we have the chart for 2 July which features an interesting meteorological feature with not one but TWO upper-level cutoff lows in the Pacific. One just north of Japan and the other just south and west of Kodiak. Not sure if much will come from either system other than it will keep our weather cool and calm.

Have a great weekend, use the sunblock, and remember that the waters are still very cold.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25 June. Plenty of activity on the water this weekend and NO SALISH 200, thank god! I don’t think there could be a worse idea for a race, especially at this time of the year!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25 June. Plenty of activity on the water this weekend and NO SALISH 200, thank god! I don’t think there could be a worse idea for a race, especially at this time of the year!

Today will be the warmest day of the weekend, with Saturday being slightly cooler and Sunday being substantially cooler. Then it will return to pretty ideal Pacific NW weather with highs in the mid 70’s until Thursday when we might get some drizzle. It’s still so much better than the rest of the country.

We still have a weak Pacific High(1029MB) trying to find its summer identity. Currently centered south and west of a “normal” position. Probably because of that low (991MB) in the Gulf of Alaska with its attached frontal system, that will drag over us on Saturday. The post-frontal flow down the Straits late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening will probably generate gale warnings for the Central and Eastern Straits. This will ease by mid-morning Sunday.

The other charts of interest this weekend are the upper level or 500MB charts. Today’s chart shows a meridional flow with the jet stream coming ashore in SE Alaska which is why we are a bit warmer than normal. This will change by Sunday as the flow becomes more zonal and the jet stream comes ashore over the Olympic Peninsula bringing cooler temps with it.

Winds over the rest of the Sound will be light with the potential for some northerly coming down the Sound late Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Sunday will see some onshore flow coming through the Chehalis Gap, bringing a southerly flow into the South and Central Sound.

Enjoy the weekend! 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, and 17 June. Considering what’s happening in the rest of the country, we’ll take it!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, 16, and 17 June. Considering what’s happening in the rest of the country, we’ll take it!

Next week will be quite interesting with the potential for a tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico and a heat dome to set up in the Northeastern US with the possibility of setting a slew of record high temps. This is after Florida saw rainfall above 2”/hour in some places, leading to widespread flooding over the last couple of days. We may have some scattered rainfall on the radar right now (Friday afternoon) with the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, however, we will still take every bit of rainfall we can get.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows that we have a weak Pacific High (1029MB) trying to set up off of San Francisco with a weak low-pressure system (1012MB) roughly centered at 52N 138W off the north end of Vancouver Island and another weak high-pressure system (1017MB) in northern BC. All in all, very little pressure gradient over the Pacific NW. This will keep the weather unsettled and winds on the light and variable side, with the possibility of a diurnal westerly coming down the Straits in the afternoon. These westerlies could build to 25-30 knots in the afternoon in the Eastern Strait of JdF. Just how strong those westerlies will be will depend upon how much clearing and heating of the inland areas there is in those areas.

The other charts of interest are the 500MB or upper-level charts which show a meridional flow that comes south out of the Gulf of Alaska coming ashore south of the Salish Sea. This will keep temps on the cool side tomorrow with some gradual warming by Wednesday as the jet stream moves north.

Also of note, last night was the start of the Downtown Sailing Series in Elliott Bay. 55 boats turned out for a near-perfect evening of sailing and fun. The course was the same as always and if you need to be reminded about how much fun casual racing is, this is The Series. Everyone is welcome, the post-race party is a blast and Elliott Bay Marina is the consummate host.

Water temps are still cool so wear those life jackets and use that sunblock! Have a great weekend and don’t tell your friends outside of the Pacific NW how lucky we are!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 June. Tomorrow is World Oceans Day; love and appreciate the water we play on! R2AK Starts on Sunday.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 June. Tomorrow is World Oceans Day; love and appreciate the water we play on! R2AK Starts on Sunday.

The good weather is here, and summer is finally on its way even though summer won’t officially start until June 20th. Plus, we have the lowest tides of the year right now so lots to do either on the water or next to it.

As we said last week, plenty of rainfall, and as of today we’ve had 1.1” compared to a an average of .34”. 1.1” is also more than we usually get for the entire month. Needless to say, we need every bit of rainfall we can get to help hold down the wildfire season. The SW USA is already experiencing a heat dome with record high temps and it will at some point work its way north into the Pac NW. Get ready.

The combination of today’s surface analysis, sat pic and 500MB charts provide a great overview of these ideal conditions. The surface analysis chart may show a weak, unstable Pacific High at 1021MB with a weak secondary high at 1024MB over the BC interior. Then directly weak of us we have a very solid low-pressure system (980MB) with an attached frontal system that also shows up on today’s Sat Pic. Luckily, the combination of the two high-pressure systems and the jet stream curving north at about 140W before coming ashore in SE Alaska, see the 500MB Chart. This will keep our weather lovely for the weekend and keep the high temps at or above normal.

The 500MB chart for the 1th of June also shows why temps will begin to moderate early next week as the jet stream becomes more zonal and begins to move south, coming ashore on the Olympic Peninsula.  Nothing ugly, we’ll just drop from near 80 on Saturday to the upper 60’s for the work week.

Unfortunately, if you’re sailing this weekend, in Puget Sound breezes will be light until mid to late afternoon both days when a diurnally driven northerly will gradually fill down the Sound. The only place with breeze will be the Strait of JdF which will have the potential for gale warnings in the afternoons of both days with westerlies of 20-30 knots.  

For R2AK which starts at 0500hrs on Sunday in Port Townsend, the sail-powered vessels will definitely have the advantage as they should make it to Victoria before it really gets ugly. The human-powered craft may have to once again camp at Dungeness until conditions aren’t quite so punishing.

These conditions will be compounded by the big tides of the day. Even at 0500hrs there will still be a westerly of 5-10 knots with a flood tide that won’t ease until around 0630hrs. Then the big ebb of the day will get going into a building westerly. That is a formula for nasty!  

Enjoy and respect our waters, be careful out there as they are still cold. Wear your sunblock and have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 31 May, 1, 2, 3, and 4 June. An exciting weekend of weather ahead. Don’t underestimate it!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 31 May, 1, 2, 3, and 4 June. An exciting weekend of weather ahead. Don’t underestimate it!

It’s not very often we get this weather configuration this late in the spring. However, in this era of Climate Change, we have learned to expect just about anything. As you can see from today’s surface chart and sat pic, we’ve got a series of systems that will bring very November-like conditions to the Salish Sea. While we are only about .3” of rain behind for the month of May, we could get a months worth of rain in the next five days.

Take a look at today’s sat pic and then the sequence of surface forecast charts. Look at the 48hr surface forecast chart and you’ll notice that the fronts are starting to line up in the Gulf of Alaska and are aimed at BC and SE Alaska. The tail of these fronts will drag across our area and they have moisture in them. The next interesting chart is the 72-hour surface chart which shows the reason for all this moisture; we will be visited by Post Tropical Cyclone Ewiniar. Remember, it was a visit from Post Tropical Cyclone Freda that caused the Oct 12th, Columbus Day Storm, in 1962 in the Pacific NW. Still the most destructive storm to ever hit the area. Having said that, it will be breezy and wet but not at that level of damage.

As far as the forecast for the weekend goes, the combination of the atmosphere trying to warm and the jet stream still south of our area means forecasts will be jumbled as in no three agree. The other factor is that as our coastal buffer zone is getting greener as it normally does in the spring and with longer days has more heat capacity. This makes the buffer zone stronger and increases the ability of the zone to diminish the strength of fronts as they come ashore. This is what makes forecasting so difficult this time of the year.

This will make for a very interesting Blake Island Race tomorrow. Didn’t we just race some long-distance race, last weekend? Anyway., if you run the models the fast one has us in 5-18 knts of S-SSE breeze for the entire course. The GFS and UW-MM5 have us starting in a SE just as a northerly starts down the Sound. Then a convergence zone develops from Shilshole to Alki, YUK!

So, if we go with the fast hrrx model this is what it might look like:

0900     SE           5-10

1000     SSE        8-12

1100     SSE        8-15

1200     SSE        10-18   

1300     SSE        8-15

1400     S-SSE   8-15

1500     S-SSE   8-12

1600     SSE        8-12

The other models show about ½ this. At least the tidal current at West Point won’t exceed about .4 knts.

The crystal ball for the above model has Zvi around the course in 2hrs 38 min, TP-52s in 2hrs 48 min, J-109 3hrs 30 min, and J-105 in 3hrs 38 min.

For the rest of the Salish Sea expect light conditions in Admiralty Inlet, the San Juan Islands, and the South Sound.

Sunday will be a different story as the stronger of these fronts approaches the coast expect a pre-frontal SE breeze (and rain) over the area and expect it to build over the day. This front will arrive late Sunday and early Monday with another front expected on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend, stay safe, and stay warm. The better weather is coming.