Puget Sound Marine Weather

Plenty of breeze headed your way this afternoon, this evening and into Saturday morning especially if you live on the coast, Vancouver Island, eastern end of the Strait of JdF, and Haida Gwaii. The central Sound will get some wind like maybe 25 knots from the south-southeast early tomorrow morning before easing off. The Doppler Radar at Langley Hill on the coast is already picking up the start of this activity off the north coast of Oregon.

Environment Canada has already issued a Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the Northern part of Vancouver Island for winds of 70-75 knots near headlands. They are also forecasting waves of 30-40 feet, YIKES.

The Surface Analysis for today shows this low (988MB) with attached frontal system running into a weak ridge of high pressure that extends from southern Washington to about mid California. The Surface Forecast Chart for tomorrow morning shows that this low has now intensified to 973MB, is now quite round with a very tightly packed isobar structure and the warning box: Hurcn Force. This chart also shows that this rapidly moving front is now over the Cascades headed in a northeasterly direction and pushing that weak ridge of high-pressure off to the south. This will open the door for more storm activity this coming week.

The Surface Forecast Chart for 20 Jan shows a plethora (11 to be exact) of low-pressure systems strewn across the Pacific, including a 959MB whopper in the mid-Pacific which is moving our way directed by the jet stream, see the 500MB charts.

The 21 Jan chart does offer us some relief as the 959MB Low is now forecast to stall and weaken in the mid-Pacific as a ridge of high-pressure rebuilds along the coast giving us light air and some very nice mid-winter conditions.

By the 22nd of January  the high off of San Francisco has now built to 1034MB and is now linked to a 1038MB high over northern Nevada. This will continue to help direct storm activity to the north of the Pacific Northwest however winter is a long way from over.

The Big Seattle Boat Show starts on the 25th of January. I’ll be working in the NMTA Information Booth Friday and Saturday both weekends so stop by and say hello if you’re at the show.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Today’s surface analysis shows a very interesting and complex series of features. The short story is that except for the coast for today and into tomorrow, the weather will be unseasonably pleasant for this time of the year. A perfect time to take the boat out and go to any number of secluded and relatively unoccupied anchorages. It will still be on the cool side but what else would you expect?

The overall pattern shows that the Pacific Northwest is still somewhat protected by a very nice ridge of high-pressure (1028mb) on the other side of the Cascades. The other feature is the 500mb chart which has the jet stream still coming almost straight across the Pacific until it wraps around an upper level low off the Southern California coast and is directed due north on the other side of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Ranges. This the reason why we will have no storms headed our way at least until mid next week. Check today’s sat pic and then compare tomorrow to see where that well-defined frontal system is headed.

Click any image to enlarge.

It does get more interesting on the 48-hour surface forecast chart where we find the deepest low so far this winter (956mb) just off the Aleutian Islands. It is still being directed almost due north while the very weakened tail of the attached frontal system may drag over the Pacific NW later in the week. It will almost certainly be significantly degraded as it encounters our coastal buffer zone.  It is also interesting to note that our protective ridge of high-pressure will strengthen slightly. This will bring a weak offshore flow over the area giving us some patchy morning fog In some of the usual areas with easterly flow through the passes but generally clear conditions. The weak low-pressure system(994mb) off the California coast will drift slowly to the southeast and may bring more rain into Southern California. By later in the week this low catch the northern bound drift of the jet stream and then dissipate off of Northern California. Just behind this low is another rapidly intensifying low- pressure system (998mb) which will probably suffer the same fate.

As we transition to this offshore flow it was interesting to note this morning the wind pattern in the eastern end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. 28-knots of southeasterly at Smith Island with 20-knots of northerly at Race Rocks. Just a friendly reminder to always check the conditions on your VHF before you head out and log the pressure readings from around the Pacific NW so you can see if something else may be coming in.

Enjoy the weekend and get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show starting on Jan 25th, it is going to be a great one.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It’s raining now because of a passing warm front and there is more on the way, just look at the Doppler and Saturday pix. More importantly, it will be a bit breezy tomorrow as a cold front goes over our area tomorrow afternoon. As far as rainfall goes for the month we are about .25” above our average but we are still about 2.18” behind for the year.

We are just really lucky we don’t live on the East Coast. For example, take Wilmington, NC where as of today they are at 101.27” for the year. The annual average for a year is 57.61”. The old record for the wettest year was 83.65” set in 1877. Note also that the total rainfall for the 17 wettest days was 58.96” So no whining about how much rain we get out here.

Click any image to enlarge.

Today’s chart and sat pic show a relatively strong(1033MB) high-pressure system off the coast of San Francisco. This feature combined with the jet stream is doing a pretty good job of deflecting the worst of the storms into SE Alaska and northern BC. These lows still have trailing frontal systems, one of which will drag over us tomorrow afternoon bringing strong (30-35 knot) southerly breezes to the coast and the Salish Sea. Tomorrow morning might be a good time to go check those mooring lines and fenders.

Once again the 48-hour chart shows an impressive series of low-pressure systems extending from a 945MB low in the Gulf of Alaska to a 977MB in the central Pacific with more low-pressure systems set to form. Luckily, that high-pressure system mentioned above along with the jet stream will keep us taking a direct hit. The bad news is that the jet stream will bring these low-pressure systems back into the upper mid-West as snowmakers and more rain to the southeastern US.  

At least for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, it looks like it won’t be raining. Plenty of time to go out and do a little bit of maintenance on the boat.

Happy New Year!

-Bruce and the entire team (Ed note: That’s Kurt, his dogs and all those who’ve contributed this year) at Sailish.com.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

The weather is definitely getting more interesting the closer we get to the end of the year, the shortest day of the year and the first day of winter. Naturally, we’ll have a celebration of the Winter Solstice on the 21^st  at 1423 hrs because the days will start getting longer from that point on.

The weather charts for today offer a very interesting picture of what’s to come for the weekend. While today’s analysis shows a very impressive low-pressure system off our coast with a long cold front attached, it won’t have much effect on the central or south Sound. There are two reasons for this: the first is that persistent high-pressure system (1036MB) just east of the Cascades and the second is our coastal buffer zone which will once again have a deleterious effect on any frontal system as it hits the coast. That high-pressure system is the one that has been responsible for bringing us the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this Fall. Since it is on the other side of the mountains it creates an offshore flow that brings cold air from the interior of BC and forces it through the mountain passes into the Puget Sound area. This is going to slowly change.

If you look at the surface forecast chart for tomorrow morning you can see that front from today has already been significantly degraded and our guardian high-pressure system has been weakened to 1032MB and pushed to the southeast. This will open the door for that next frontal system to come ashore late Saturday and into Sunday morning. You will also notice that these low-pressure systems instead of being sent in a northerly path are now on a more northeasterly path. Eventually, this will become more east-northeasterly as the week goes on, allowing more moisture into our area.

Click any image to enlarge.

What effect will this have on the breeze for this weekend? The strongest breeze today(20-30 knots)will be the pre-frontal south-easterlies in the coastal waters and the eastern and western parts of the Strait of JdF. There will be a brief respite for those areas on Saturday morning and into mid-afternoon at which point the winds in advance of the next front will once again pick up in those same areas. The winds in the central and south Soundwill be 10-15 knots from the southeast on Saturday morning becoming lighter as the day goes on.

After midnight on Saturday, the pre-frontal breeze will pick up significantly along the north coast and the eastern part of the Straits as in 25-35 knots of southeasterly. This will ease as the front passes through late Sunday afternoon. The central Sound will see 10-15 knots of southeasterly easing around mid-afternoon while the south Sound will see generally lighter conditions all day.

The next front which will bring more lowland rain and mountain snow will start to show up on Tuesday.

Enjoy the weekend!       

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It’s not the same as last weekend but it’s close, with some notable differences. The primary one being that there will be more wind in the central and south Sound on Saturday than in the north Sound and San Juan Islands. Sunday, it will be light just about everywhere with some fog in the usual places.

As you can see from the surface charts for today and tomorrow, we are transitioning from a weak onshore flow following a weak frontal passage earlier today to an offshore flow later today and into tomorrow. This will result in a strong offshore flow through the Straits of JdF with Small Craft Advisories in place for the northern coastal waters, the Straits, and the northern inland waters. This will ease over the course of the day tomorrow with winds becoming light over the entire Salish Sea on Sunday. Both days should have some sun so don’t forget that sunblock before you leave the house.

Click any image to enlarge

For the central and south Sound, we could see 20 knots of northerly tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. This will ease to 15 knots by mid to late afternoon. The reason for this is that 1042 MB high sitting over central BC that is feeding into a weak and amorphous 1025 MB hight sitting off of our coast. Both of these highs will weaken over the weekend and ease the gradient, reducing the offshore flow. This, combined with a relatively static jet stream, will keep any of those impressive low-pressure systems from getting into our area and bringing some much-needed rain to the valleys and snow to the mountains. More importantly, these highs won’t allow any rain into California to help the firemen.

So where are we in terms of rain? As of today, we’ve had .84 inches of rain compared to an average of 3.19 inches. For the year, we’ve had 25.07 inches compared to an average 28.76 inches for this date. Then there was last year where we’d had 37.81 inches by this time! Unfortunately, not much is going to change. Even though by Wednesday we’ll have another weak front approaching the coast, when it hits the coastal buffer zone, it will be significantly degraded. So I wouldn’t get those ski’s out quite yet, I would just keep enjoying the boat for a while longer.

As always, check the VHF station reports and track the barometric pressure gradient reports before you leave the dock, develop your own forecast, and keep an eye on what’s going on around you.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)