Let’s just call it 50 knots of breeze. Anecdotally, reports came in of 50 knots of windspeed. Some said 48. On the water it seemed every bit of 50.
The Possession Point Race, the second of CYC’s Center Sound Series, was sailed Saturday in Puget Sound. Nearly half the fleet opted to stay at the dock, many having read Bruce’s forecast. The call was for breeze, but even Bruce couldn’t foresee the 50-knot blast that caused carnage for the later finishers.
The race started predictably enough. Boats were able to set spinnakers and hold them for most, if not all, of the run to Possession Point. The east lane paid off, and it was a fairly orderly rounding as boats turned up into the teeth of the southerly, which by then was steadily blowing in the 20+ knot range. The larger, faster boats charged upwind on a flood current and into some big seas. Many boats played the east shore until they saw those hitting the Bainbridge side gaining.
The following photos were taken at the start by Jan Anderson. See the rest here.
Mystic AceIt was crowded at the boat for PHRF 5.
Crews on the rails could see the squalls coming. It was clear there was going to be a dousing. Indeed it came, along with a bit of hail. There was the expected gusts to start with, but then it became clear something had upset Mother Nature. She packed the squalls with 30, 40 and ultimately 50-knots gusts. By the time the worst of it hit, the fastest of the boats had finished. There was a distinct line of demarcation when the biggest wind hit – boats behind that line were scattered with ripped sails, crews on the foredeck holding downed headsails while hoping it would soon be over. Some boats were trying to motor under bare poles. Some limped the finish after the worst of it passed. And the J/109 Eclipse broke her mast.
These photos were taken by Adam Yurret from the race committee boat at the finish. Thanks, Adam! More here.
Al Hughes skippered the lone J/105 on the course.One Life finished with one sail.Aurora’s rail stacked.Carnage.
There were no reports of serious personal injuries, though just about everybody went home sore and cold and wet. Foul weather gear can only do so much.
Aboard Derek DeCouteau’s 1971 Ranger 33 Aurora, we had an excellent helmsman and afterguard, a new-to-the boat #3 and lots of rail meat. It was a good day.
As always – if you have some stories or photos from the race you’d like to share, send ’em.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Hard as it may be to believe, we will have wind once again for the weekend and for the upcoming week as several systems will march right on through the Pacific NW. Also interesting is that all five models are pretty much in agreement. The differences are about how much wind we’ll have and when the cold front will pass over us tomorrow. We are still about .5” of rain behind for the month however tomorrow and this week could change that and help the snowpack in our mountains which is still behind. Dress warmly and stay dry.
Today’s surface analysis charts show an unrelenting group of lows with attached frontal systems off our coast and headed our way. California will still get most of the rain and snow however we will begin to get close to our seasonal norm which is all good, unless you live in California. The Pacific High, because it remains weak, has been pushed off to the south while the slightly stronger High east of the Cascades will push systems into BC and SE Alaska. The Upper-Level charts show a meridional flow off the coast for today with the jet stream coming ashore mid-Oregon. As the week goes on, this flow will become more zonal with the jet stream drifting to the south and coming ashore mid-California. This will keep temps cool in the PacNW and help preserve what snowpack we have.
The consistent feature in the Surface charts is the bunching of isobars over the Pacific NW and this pressure gradient won’t ease until Wednesday. That’s why we can expect 12-25 knots of SSE for the start tomorrow and that will build to 20-30 knots midday with higher gusts. The question is when will the cold front go through because that is when the breeze will start to clock from SSE to SSW to SW. By late afternoon the gradient should start to ease, however I think the fleet will have finished by then.
Tides should not be an issue as slack at Scatchet Head should be around 1100 hrs however with the consistent southerly flow over the Sound and freshwater coming out of the Snohomish River, flowing out of Possession Sound, and across Scatchet Head, the ebb at Scatchet Head may last another 45-60 minutes. Remember also that the current and wind will build as you approach the mark so figure that into your rounding strategy.
March 8 Satellite PicMarch 8 PNW Satellite Pic
After the mark, if the ebb is still flowing at the mark it will pay to hold port tack to get south and away from the ebb before you tack to starboard. This will get you towards the Edmonds shore and the remainder of the ebb flowing south towards the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The water will also be flatter along that shore. Remember also how shallow it gets from Edwards Point to the oil docks.
The question with frontal passage and the start of the flood tide is whether it would be worthwhile to hold port tack at the mark and go across to the west side of the Sound. The flood does start first on that shore, however I think everyone will be around the mark and well on the way to the finish before the flood gets that far south. So, it would be extra miles to sail to get over there and if the wind doesn’t come around to the SW until later, it could be painful coming back across the Sound from Jeff Head. Something to watch.
As you get beat south of Richmond Beach you will want to watch if boats that hold out to the west start gaining as the breeze starts to clock from the S to the SSW and the SW. Plan your approach to the finish accordingly. This may change depending upon how close the committee boat is to Meadow Point because there could still be southeasterly, port tack lifts along the shore north of Meadow Point.
I have the TP-52’s around in three hours. The J-105’s and J-35’s in 4.25 hours and the J-30 around in 4.75 hrs.
So for tomorrow, safety first, life jackets and safety harnesses before you leave the dock, and maybe a discussion about your person overboard procedures.
Have a safe, fun, and fast race. Also, don’t forget to Spring Forward Saturday night. 😊
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What a way to start Center Sound Series! At least the models are pretty much in agreement, we’re going to have wind and rain mixed with snow. Much better than drifting in the rain and cold.
For the month, we are only about .2” below normal rainfall; for the year, we are .35” above normal. It appears that this trend will continue into the rest of the month and with the jet stream remaining well to the south, our snowpack should remain intact. Then there’s the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada which could gain 10’+ feet just this weekend. Plus, if you look at the sea surface temp anomaly chart you should note the very high anomaly off the West Coast of Africa which is where hurricanes are born. The temps in this area are much higher than normal and could indicate an early start to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic. It should also be noted that the same is true of the area off the Pacific Coast of Panama and Central America where Pacific hurricanes are formed. The good news for Hawaii is that band of cooler than normal water just to the east of the Islands. This was in place last summer and served to break up approaching hurricanes. This is going to be a very interesting summer, but let’s not look too far ahead.
Our active winter is going to continue and that is going to make for a quick but cold Blakely Rock Race. We have a large trough of low-pressure over the area with four low-pressure systems just offshore roughly aimed our way. This will keep a southerly flow over the area all weekend, especially over the race course on Saturday. The day will start with 10-12knts of southerly that will build over the day and could reach 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon, especially in the north part of the race course and waters from Kingston north to the San Juan Islands. By late afternoon a stronger onshore flow will come down the Strait of JdF bringing gale force westerlies to the eastern part of the Straits.
NW Sat PicSST Anomoly Chart
Tidal current will not be much of an issue on Saturday and with the amount of rain we’ve had this week combined with a predominately southerly wind flow, expect a wind-driven surface current to be flowing to the north all day on Saturday, especially near West Point. Look for the muddy-colored water which will mark the outflow from the Duwamish as it bends around West Point. Current will be slightly stronger near West Point but ease as you go across the Sound.
Tactics should be fairly straightforward with the usual local geographic effects. The start/finish line will probably be slightly offshore from Shilshole to the south west from Meadow Point. You’d like a clear air start with a clear lane to hold starboard tack off the start line heading toward the breakwater. You should be headed as you get closer to the breakwater, just don’t sail out of the breeze. Once you tack to port there will be lifting puffs as you work towards West Point. If you get headed and find yourself in a strong ebb, tack back into the beach so that when you tack back to port you are close to West Point. Once you pass WP, hold port tack to get across the Sound. As you go across the Sound there should be a slight header as you get to the west side of the Sound. When you tack to starboard there should be lifting puffs on starboard as you work your way south to the Rock.
If there were starboard tack lifting puffs prepare for a port pole set at the Rock and carry that to just north of Winslow where you should get a slight lift that will allow you to gybe and probably be aimed pretty close to the top mark which remember is 1.5 miles to the east of the VTS Buoy. As you’re sailing north check the finish line to see if there’s a favored end.
Remember that the wind will probably build as you are running to the north and if you carried the #1 to the Rock you may want to consider a change to the #3 well in advance of rounding. Once you start on the wind it will pay to hold starboard and get close to the east side of the Sound before tacking as there should be port tack lifting puffs along that shore and you will be in smoother water.
The approach to the finish could be interesting if they position the finish well away from the shore. This could mean the line is in more of a SW breeze. Watch the boats ahead to see if there is a favored tack to the finish.
The TP-52s should be around the course in about 3.5 hours. The J-35s and J-105s should take about 4.5 hours with the J-30’s around in 4.9 hours.
Have a safe and great race and remember that the wind chill will be around freezing. Don’t let anyone get cold. Lifejackets on everyone and if there’s any question, clip into the jacklines.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It is still a cooler and more unstable spring and that will be seen as we race tomorrow. As far as rainfall goes, we are only 1” behind for the month however we are 5.1” behind for the year. Unlike California which is ahead for just about everything. Plus they are going to get another rainy and breezy event on the 28th when another compact low-pressure system comes ashore near San Francisco bringing rain to the Coast and Central Valley and more snow to the Sierra Nevada Range. See the surface forecast chart for 28 March as well as the 500MB charts.
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the surface trough of low pressure moving inland with a weak high-pressure system off of Northern CA. In the sat pic, note the trough along the coast and the cool, unstable air behind the trough. As the high builds offshore, the pressure gradient will ease over the Salish Sea. By tomorrow morning a weak trough will drift inland while a secondary lobe of high-pressure builds inland over northern CA and southern OR. This will have the effect of keeping a predominately southerly flow over the area for tomorrow while a weak onshore flow will develop down the Strait of JdF. This may bring a weak northerly flow into the North Sound and Admiralty Inlet late tomorrow, it just won’t last.
March 24 Satellite
For the general race area tomorrow we’ll probably start with a nice southerly of 8-12 knots. This will hold until about mid-day when the gradient will ease and the breeze south of West Point will ease to 3-5 knots but remain in the 8-10 knot range north of West Point. By about 1400hrs the breeze will ease to 3-5 knots from Alki to Edmonds. By about 1500hrs the breeze will be light and variable from Everett to Alki. In other words, we would hope to be finished by 1400-1500hrs.
The other interesting feature tomorrow will be the tidal currents at West Point:
0748 Slack
0930 Max Ebb .37 knts
1212 Slack
1730 Max Flood .84 knots
Presuming an upwind start, that puts us against a weak ebb and if we go to Blakely Rock or Duwamish Head and hopefully nothing further south, we will then have to fight a building flood as the breeze drops. As I said, the “Best Course for the Day” will be a challenge. At least the rain will be light and the temps coolish. YUK!
Sunday will be much the same except up in the Straits where there will be a pre-frontal SE.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
At least the models this week are pretty much in alignment with the forecast in that there should be more wind going north than going south. After last week where none of the models were in agreement, the one that was the closest was the UW MM5 hi-res which was extremely close right up until the end. So we’ll take a closer look at that one this week.
In the rainfall totals as of today, we are only .11” behind and for a while this week we actually got a little ahead. Year to date we are at 6.59” compared to an average of 10.79” so still 4.2” behind for the year. At least there won’t be as much rain tomorrow as there was last Saturday. Plenty of time to make up for the rainfall shortage this coming week. It’s also interesting that NOAA officially declared our La Niña threepeat over and possibly trending to an El Niño oscillation. Plenty of time for that to change as well.
Tidal Currents for Saturday
West Point
0630 Slack
0830 Max ebb .43 knts
1042 Slack
1618 Max fld .83 knts
1948 Slack
Foulweather Bluff (in case we go north)
0725 Slack
1054 Max ebb 2.51 knts
1418 Slack
1706 Max fld 2.02 knts
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the frontal system that is moving over us today and the cool, unstable air behind the front that will bring a short period of weak, onshore flow. The dominant feature that will remain in play will be a low-pressure system that remains off the coast with yet another attached cold front. This will keep a southerly flow in place over the south, central, and north Sound for the weekend in advance of the next front which will move over the area late Sunday and into early Monday. Unfortunately, the gradient will be weaker over the south Sound, so the breeze will ease there starting just after mid-day Saturday while in the central and north Sound, we should see a more consistent 10-20 knots of southerly.
The 500MB or upper-level Charts also show a consistent pattern of zonal flow with the Jet Stream continuing to come ashore well to the south of us. This will continue to keep us in a wet pattern with temperatures below normal. California is also due for two more frontal systems this coming week and since they are not coming down from the north, will bring warmer temperatures and warm rain to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Not a good combination.
If we go north tomorrow, since we’ll be sailing in an ebb it will pay to stay slightly to the west of rhumb going north. Remember that as you approach the Scatchet Head mark the ebb will increase and be flowing from east to west so build in some room to go around that mark. Remember also that the breeze tends to build once you are north of the line from Edmonds to Kingston. So plan your rounding well in advance.
After the mark which way to go home will depend on how fast you got up to the mark. If you are early at the mark and the ebb is still rolling, it will pay to tack to starboard to get back to the east and pick up the ebb out of Possession Sound, and ride that south to Pt Wells. Remember that the shallow area from Richmond Beach north to Edwards Point extends out further than you may think.
After Richmond Beach, it will probably pay to keep working that side of the Sound, however, be sure to keep an eye out to the west in case the post-frontal breeze becomes more southwesterly. If the SW breeze comes across the Sound that will help you set up for a starboard tack approach to the finish line.
If you are late getting up to the mark, it may pay to hold port tack and head to the west to pick up the start of the flood down the shore south of Pt No Pt. Hold that side until you get to Jeff Head and then sail starboard tack all the way across the Sound so you can more accurately gauge your approach to the finish.
The week’s Ouija board has the J-30 around the Scatchet Head mark at 1254 finishing at 1613. The J-105’s around SH at 1249, finishing at 1555. The J-109’s and C&C 115’s around at 1246 finishing at 1550. The J-35 around at 1300 finishing at 1605. Terremoto around at 1234 finishing at 1507. The TP-52’s around at 1228 finishing at 1448.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This will certainly be interesting. It is the first race of the Center Sound series so it will be good to just get back on the water. It won’t be warm but at least it won’t be snowing, just raining on the Sound. The Olympics and the Cascades will be another story. As far as rain goes, while it may only be the 3rd of March, we are already slightly behind for the month. For the year we are 4.2” behind, while the snowpack is way ahead for this time of the year. With the jet stream being where it is, the temps will tend to stay below normal for some time to come.
The short story for tomorrow is that NONE of the models are in agreement. Today’s surface analysis and the two surface forecast charts for tomorrow will give you a good indication as to why the models are having such a tough time coming into agreement. Today’s surface analysis chart simply shows a broad trough of low pressure off to the NW of Vancouver Island and the potential for a weak low-pressure system to form off the coast. Combine this with a jet stream (note the 500MB charts) that is coming ashore well south of us, and the surface forecast charts that show that this low-pressure system simply won’t be going anywhere. Instead, as it drifts around and bumps into the coastal buffer zone, it will just continue to weaken while sending in a weak occluded front sometime tomorrow morning that will weaken as it comes ashore. Not a very dynamic picture. If however, you are up in the Strait of JdF, there will be plenty of breeze from the ESE. Since the low will remain offshore this will keep a pressure gradient with very much an E to SE component over much of the Salish Sea. The problem will be in the Center Sound where because it’s a relatively weak gradient, the breeze could be very light.
How light? One model had the TP-52’s finishing just after 2000hrs and the J-35 finishing at 2235 hrs. Let’s not go with that. At least two of the models have the breeze staying out of the ESE for the entire day but never getting above 8 knots. The UW model has the breeze starting out from ESE at 12-18 knots before easing to 5-12 knots and then switching to SW 8-12 before it eases to 5 knots from the south by late afternoon before it switches to the ESE at 8-15 knots by early evening.
So we still have to sail with what we’ve got so start logging the breeze this evening at West Point(S-29knts now), Destruction Island(SE-18), the JA Buoy at the mouth of the Straits(SSE-18), and Race Rocks(ESE-7). Also log the barometric pressure, at the same places so you can see what gradient is developing. 1400hrs WP 1013.6 Falling, DI 1011.9 Falling, JA 1010.2 Falling, and RR 1011.9 Falling.
Luckily tidal currents should be minimal:
Current at West Point
0712 Slack
1154 Max Fld .39 knts
1436 Slack
1606 Max Ebb .24 knts
1800 Slack
With the wind we are currently having and the rain we’ve had, this will tend to start the ebb sooner and extend the ebb. It will also decrease the velocity of the flood.
March 4 MM5
The usual topographic effects will be in play so you will want to get a clear air start at the favored end of the line and hold starboard until you can lay West Point. It’s possible this could be a one-tack beat to Blakely Rock. The other problem will be that with the reverse start finding and keeping a clear air lane is going to be tough. If after West Point you find yourself stuck, don’t hesitate to take a short clearing tack to starboard to get back into clear air. You will also want to be watching the boats ahead of you to see if the ESE breeze holds or is there a knock as you sail across the Sound.
The next question will be if the breeze is from the ESE, is the crew good enough to do a port pole set at Blakely Rock and then gybe immediately when you can safely clear the west end of the Rock? If the breeze is from the S to SW then just do the port pole set when you are squared away. Hold the port gybe until you can gybe and be aimed at the leeward mark. Generally, it pays to stay slightly to the west of the rhumbline.
March 3 Satellite ImageMarch 3 Doppler
At the bottom mark, get on the wind and try to find that lane of clear air for the long beat to the finish. If it is starting to go light, don’t let too many people accumulate in the cockpit. Shift the weight forward and to leeward to keep the stern out of the water and slightly heeled. Again, keep watching the boats ahead of you for some indication about what wind direction you’ll be dealing with at the finish. If the breeze is out of the south hold starboard tack in towards the beach because once again it will tend to be SE along the east side of the Sound. Then you will need to start figuring out which end of the line is favored so you sail the shortest possible course. If the breeze is out of the ESE don’t sail so far into the beach that you overstand the finish.
The more optimistic model has the TP-52’s finishing around 1443. The J-105’s in at 1611, the C&C 115’s and J-109’s in at 1558, the J-35 in at 1606, Terremoto in at 1455, and the J-30 in at 1708. Let’s hope!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
With CYC’s Scatchet Head course being up to the race committee, this is bound to be interesting. From two out of the three models, there will be more consistent wind on a North Course, so that is the one we’ll use.
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic give a nice representation of what’s coming towards us for tomorrow. A well-defined cold front, with cool, unstable, air behind the front and plenty of cold rain. After the front passes, which should be near dawn, onshore flow will develop down the Strait of JdF with the possibility of SCA or gale warnings in the eastern Strait. As the flow offshore changes from NW to W flow will develop through the Chehalis Gap late in the afternoon on Saturday. This is what will make things interesting on the North Course, as the pressure gradient will ease and conditions will go light in the central Sound.
It will be the speed of the front that will be interesting to watch since that will determine how much wind we have after about mid-afternoon. Before that, the North Sound will have more consistently more N-NE breeze(12-20 knots) while the South Sound, (south of Alki) will have a light(4-8 knots), of drainage easterly.
Presuming a north course, you’ll start in a NNE-NE breeze of 10-12 knots on starboard and if you don’t have a lane of clear air you’ll need to take a short clearing tack and then get back on to starboard as that will be the favored tack up the Sound until about the line from Edmonds to Kingston. You’ll be sailing in an ebb tide which will be consistently stronger to the west of the rhumb line. As you get closer to the north part of the course, the breeze should build to 15-18 knots and back to the N-NNW. At which point you’ll tack and be aimed roughly at Scatchet Head. Even if you’re low of the mark the breeze should continue to back, lifting you to the mark. The ebb will also be setting you to the mark which is fine just watch your set as you get closer to the mark because the breeze will tend to ease the closer you get to the mark while the ebb will build slightly.
For the run back to the finish it will pretty much be a reverse of the course you sailed up to the mark with more breeze from N-NW until you get back to near Kingston where you’ll be lifted so you can gybe to port and be aimed at the finish. The key will be to finish before about mid-afternoon when the breeze will start to clock back to the east and begin to ease.
Tidal Currents
Scatchet Head
1012 Max Ebb 1.3 knots
1324 Slack
1620 Max Flood 1.0 knot
Edmonds
1018 Max Ebb .44 knots
1300 Slack
1612 Max Flood .66 knots
So what does the crystal ball show for tomorrow? Zvi first around and finishing at 1315 hrs, Glory next at 1323hrs, Jam in at 1414hrs. the J-111’s finishing at 1435, the Sierra 26 in at 1455, the C&C 115 in at 1507, the J-109’s at 1509, the J-35’s in at 1517, and the J-105’s in around 1522.
We are still ahead of rain for the year even compared with last year and with another front coming in late Sunday or early Monday. This will add a little more snow to the mountains which is good. The other good news is that by the end of next week the jet stream will become meridional and move more to the north which will bring in some slightly warmer temperatures.
Have a great race, stay warm, stay dry, and stay safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The second and third races of CYC-Seattle’s Center Sound Series were both Puget Sound Specials, with quirky conditions Northwest Sailors (usually) take in stride. What was a little unusual was that the race committee adjusted the courses in both races so that instead of going all the way to Scatchet Head and Three Tree Point, racers sailed around the Sound never too far from Shilshole Bay.
The Scatchet Head Race was most notable for a parking lot that formed near Edmunds at one of the turning marks. We don’t have any photos, but here’s a video from Doug Frazer aboard the J/105 Corvo and an image of the melee at the north mark courtesy of Kwindoo.
When all was said and done, while there were several Did Not Competes, it appears everyone who started finished.
Three Tree Point
The race committee opted for not sending the fleet all the way to Three Tree Point, no doubt urged by Bruce Hedrick’s pre-race weather brief and suggestion. Bruce himself raced aboard Tahlequah, and here’s his report:
There was a lefty at about 1:30 before the start so the pin became favored so we took it. With that shift the boats astern were all into our dirt and one by one were forced to tack. Once everyone had tacked we dug a little deeper into breakwater and then tacked. We held that and it looked good until the breeze went back to the SW. Those who had tacked early also got into more wind so when they came back about 5 boats crossed us. We tacked into the beach just north of West Point and then tacked when we could just scrape over the sandbar at WP. What was weird was the tide was ebbing at WP instead of flooding as predicted. So the folks who were on port outside the buoy got slowed while we just decided to stay inside the buoy and stay on port. Most of the group that crossed us got past the Point and then tacked back to starboard to sail under Magnolia towards Four Mile Rock. One J-105 found the mud and parked up for a while. We held port and got a nice shift to the SW so we tacked and for a while we were aimed at Alki. Using the HB compass it became apparent that the boats on the beach were in more anti-water and maybe less wind as we lifted out on them. The J-109’s went further out than we did and that didn’t seem to hurt them as they stayed ahead of us. Once we got headed down to Duwamish Head, we tacked and were laying the top mark.
Don Leighton aboard Tahlequah
Just another rainy day on Puget Sound
“For some reason, Glory had speed on us.”
We rounded in third behind the two J-109’s, did a starboard set and just started sailing our numbers and watching as the breeze continued to oscillate. In that breeze especially in the lighter spots we can sail deeper than the J-109’s at about the same speed. We did three gybes going across Elliott Bay holding the port gybe to sail inside the buoy at WP. We did one gybe just north of WP to stay away from Lodos who would have been a problem on starboard. With a sprit they have to sail hotter angles but with our shadow they couldn’t get past us so they finally slowed down and went astern of us. I think they also wanted to get back to the east to stay in touch with the other J-109 Eclipse who had gone well to the east but it looked to us like that hurt them and the other J-35. We waited until the breeze went back to the SSW and gybed for the mark.
We had a nice opening to get around the mark and just held port to force the bigger boats that were coming up on us to tack and leave us with a lane of clear air. This was good because both Lodos and Eclipse got caught up in traffic and this allowed us to extend. We tacked to starboard and held that until we were about ½ way to the finish. Both Lodos and Eclipse went back out to the west so we decided to be conservative and just keep us between them and the finish. We had about a 100 yd lead so we waited until we could tack back to starboard and then tacked directly in front of Lodos who waited a while and then did two tacks to clear their air. We gradually worked up underneath them again and put just a little more distance on them. We held starboard until we could lay the finish on port. When we crossed it was becoming apparent that the breeze was going away and as I drove home you could see that Elliot Bay had glassed off and when I got back to West Seattle, it was calm from Alki to the north end of Vashon. So again, a great call by the Race Committee.
That’s a wrap for Center Sound. Three good races, and it’s all starting to feel a little post-Covid normal. A windy Blakely Rock and challenging Scatchet Head and Three Tree Point races. Aaaaaah. Somehow, complaining that the conditions weren’t perfect doesn’t feel appropriate at this time. Many kudos to the race committee that had to overcome a faulty YCV transmission and two bad weather outlooks by thinking on their feet. Results are here. The usual suspects are atop the leader board with Sabrosa (Alex Simanis), Dark Star (Jonathan McKee) and Terramoto (Bill Weinstein) in the top three PHRF fleet spots. The ORC class, all TP 52s, was won by John Buchan’s Glory.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Almost an inch of rain yesterday (at the airport) and as of today, we are 3.5” above normal and .75 inches ahead of last year which was abnormally moist. Just as long as we don’t get too much heat too fast, it’s fine. Plus the freezing level is going to be coming down significantly late Sunday and into Monday which will help preserve the snowpack. Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes mixed with the rain.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the remains of a weak low-pressure system right on top of the Pacific NW hence the cloud cover. There is also a respectable high offshore (1033Mb) which isn’t going to move very far and will help weaken the next front that is due to arrive late Sunday. When you compare the surface chart with the 500MB chart you’ll also see that this high extends well aloft. This is keeping the jet stream to the north before it dives to the south and comes ashore at the US/Mex Border and heads due east. This is the same formula that has resulted in the wild weather in the SE USA over the last 10 days.
March 26 500 MB
March 26 Surface Analysis
March 27 Surface Forecast
March 28 500 MB
March 28 Surface Forecast
March 29 Surface Forecast
March 30 500 MB
March 30 Surface Forecast
Today’s satellite pic, while showing some clearing in the Straits of JdF, still has plenty of cloud cover over the rest of the area. This will continue through tomorrow, just don’t be fooled, be sure to put on plenty of sunblock before you leave the house.
While we have just about a perfect wind for the TTP Race today, the surface forecast chart shows that the pressure gradient will ease over the area tomorrow keeping the breeze in the 5-10-knot range for the start with less wind to the south and the breeze over the racecourse gradually easing over the day. Luckily for us, the Race Committee isn’t afraid to set an alternative course to take advantage of what wind is present. Might as well make it a clean sweep for the Center Sound Series.
Luckily for us, the tides won’t be an issue.
Tidal Current at West Point
0812 Slack
1336 Max Flood .74 knts
1630 Slack
1806 Max Ebb .43 knts
The current NAM model has the TP-52’s around the course in about 6.25 hours, the J-111’s around in 7 hours, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 8.5 hours.
By Sunday, another system will make its presence felt over the area as it brings rain and wind to the Salish Sea. It will have the effect of weakening the high currently off of our coast and moving it slightly to the south. What’s very interesting is the 1042MB high behind this front and the 974Mb low off to the NW of this high. Not a trivial low-pressure system. This will be fun to watch as we approach the end of the month.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Plenty of wind last weekend, not so much this weekend. That, however, is racing in Puget Sound. Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak ridge of high pressure over the Salish Sea extending southwesterly from southern BC out to a high-pressure system (1030MB) off of San Francisco. By tomorrow this will have been pushed slightly to the east as the next system approaches the coast. The gradient will somewhat tighten as the next front gets closer.
The satellite picture shows the sunny conditions we have now as well as the next cloud cover coming onshore. While we may have calm conditions on the Sound now, this will give way to a more southerly flow over the racecourse tomorrow, just not a strong flow. The other point of interest is that the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off on 9 March are not yet back up with no ETR as of this afternoon. This means we probably won’t have our graph of conditions (baro, gust, wind speed) at West Point or any other NDBC sites. This will make the Western Washington current conditions chart even more important. https://atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?sfcplots-wwa
March 12 current conditions
March 12 Surface Analysis
March 13 Surface Forecast
March 14 500 MB
March 14 Surface Forecast
March 15 Surface Forecast
March 16 500 MB
March 16 Surface Forecast
Tidal currents are always important on this race and you’ll want to look at two different stations. West Point for the start-finish line and Foulweather Bluff for an estimate of conditions at Scatchet Head. The actual speed at Scatchet Head will be about .5 to .75 of the values at FWB.
West Point
0800 Slack
1412 Max Flood .72 knots
1636 Slack
1806 Max Ebb .42 knots
Foulweather Bluff
0906 Max Ebb 1.93 knots
1200 Slack
1436 Max Flood 1.75 knots
1730 Slack
Generally speaking, winds will be in the 5-12 knot range with lighter winds on the southern part of the course. At the start, depending on where the start line is set, the wind will probably be from SSE so a starboard tack start should work you just don’t want to hold starboard very long because there will tend to be more wind to the west. As you sail north, it will tend to build on the west side of the Sound first, just watch the TWD and TWS, and don’t get too far to the west of the rhumbline. Since it will be light, you’ll need to keep your head out of the boat and watch what’s going on around you. The other thing to remember is that the flood tide starts first on the west side of the Sound. So after you round the mark you’ll probably want to hold port tack, head to the west, and beat down that shore watching COG and SOG until Jeff Head before heading to the finish. As you get south the breeze will tend to lighten from Kingston south.
As of this afternoon, it looks like the TP-52’s will be around the course in about 5.2 to 5.5 hours, the J-111’s abound in 6 hours, the J-35’s, J-109’s around in 7.5 hours and the J-105’s around in about 7.8 to 8 hours. It will probably be tough for the slower boats to finish within the time limit. While it will be a long day on the water, at least it will be relatively warm.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
