This will certainly be interesting. It is the first race of the Center Sound series so it will be good to just get back on the water. It won’t be warm but at least it won’t be snowing, just raining on the Sound. The Olympics and the Cascades will be another story. As far as rain goes, while it may only be the 3rd of March, we are already slightly behind for the month. For the year we are 4.2” behind, while the snowpack is way ahead for this time of the year. With the jet stream being where it is, the temps will tend to stay below normal for some time to come.
The short story for tomorrow is that NONE of the models are in agreement. Today’s surface analysis and the two surface forecast charts for tomorrow will give you a good indication as to why the models are having such a tough time coming into agreement. Today’s surface analysis chart simply shows a broad trough of low pressure off to the NW of Vancouver Island and the potential for a weak low-pressure system to form off the coast. Combine this with a jet stream (note the 500MB charts) that is coming ashore well south of us, and the surface forecast charts that show that this low-pressure system simply won’t be going anywhere. Instead, as it drifts around and bumps into the coastal buffer zone, it will just continue to weaken while sending in a weak occluded front sometime tomorrow morning that will weaken as it comes ashore. Not a very dynamic picture. If however, you are up in the Strait of JdF, there will be plenty of breeze from the ESE. Since the low will remain offshore this will keep a pressure gradient with very much an E to SE component over much of the Salish Sea. The problem will be in the Center Sound where because it’s a relatively weak gradient, the breeze could be very light.
How light? One model had the TP-52’s finishing just after 2000hrs and the J-35 finishing at 2235 hrs. Let’s not go with that. At least two of the models have the breeze staying out of the ESE for the entire day but never getting above 8 knots. The UW model has the breeze starting out from ESE at 12-18 knots before easing to 5-12 knots and then switching to SW 8-12 before it eases to 5 knots from the south by late afternoon before it switches to the ESE at 8-15 knots by early evening.
So we still have to sail with what we’ve got so start logging the breeze this evening at West Point(S-29knts now), Destruction Island(SE-18), the JA Buoy at the mouth of the Straits(SSE-18), and Race Rocks(ESE-7). Also log the barometric pressure, at the same places so you can see what gradient is developing. 1400hrs WP 1013.6 Falling, DI 1011.9 Falling, JA 1010.2 Falling, and RR 1011.9 Falling.
Luckily tidal currents should be minimal:
Current at West Point
0712 Slack
1154 Max Fld .39 knts
1436 Slack
1606 Max Ebb .24 knts
1800 Slack
With the wind we are currently having and the rain we’ve had, this will tend to start the ebb sooner and extend the ebb. It will also decrease the velocity of the flood.
The usual topographic effects will be in play so you will want to get a clear air start at the favored end of the line and hold starboard until you can lay West Point. It’s possible this could be a one-tack beat to Blakely Rock. The other problem will be that with the reverse start finding and keeping a clear air lane is going to be tough. If after West Point you find yourself stuck, don’t hesitate to take a short clearing tack to starboard to get back into clear air. You will also want to be watching the boats ahead of you to see if the ESE breeze holds or is there a knock as you sail across the Sound.
The next question will be if the breeze is from the ESE, is the crew good enough to do a port pole set at Blakely Rock and then gybe immediately when you can safely clear the west end of the Rock? If the breeze is from the S to SW then just do the port pole set when you are squared away. Hold the port gybe until you can gybe and be aimed at the leeward mark. Generally, it pays to stay slightly to the west of the rhumbline.
At the bottom mark, get on the wind and try to find that lane of clear air for the long beat to the finish. If it is starting to go light, don’t let too many people accumulate in the cockpit. Shift the weight forward and to leeward to keep the stern out of the water and slightly heeled. Again, keep watching the boats ahead of you for some indication about what wind direction you’ll be dealing with at the finish. If the breeze is out of the south hold starboard tack in towards the beach because once again it will tend to be SE along the east side of the Sound. Then you will need to start figuring out which end of the line is favored so you sail the shortest possible course. If the breeze is out of the ESE don’t sail so far into the beach that you overstand the finish.
The more optimistic model has the TP-52’s finishing around 1443. The J-105’s in at 1611, the C&C 115’s and J-109’s in at 1558, the J-35 in at 1606, Terremoto in at 1455, and the J-30 in at 1708. Let’s hope!
Have a great race, stay warm, and be safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)