At least the models this week are pretty much in alignment with the forecast in that there should be more wind going north than going south. After last week where none of the models were in agreement, the one that was the closest was the UW MM5 hi-res which was extremely close right up until the end. So we’ll take a closer look at that one this week.
In the rainfall totals as of today, we are only .11” behind and for a while this week we actually got a little ahead. Year to date we are at 6.59” compared to an average of 10.79” so still 4.2” behind for the year. At least there won’t be as much rain tomorrow as there was last Saturday. Plenty of time to make up for the rainfall shortage this coming week. It’s also interesting that NOAA officially declared our La Niña threepeat over and possibly trending to an El Niño oscillation. Plenty of time for that to change as well.
Tidal Currents for Saturday
West Point
0630 Slack
0830 Max ebb .43 knts
1042 Slack
1618 Max fld .83 knts
1948 Slack
Foulweather Bluff (in case we go north)
0725 Slack
1054 Max ebb 2.51 knts
1418 Slack
1706 Max fld 2.02 knts
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the frontal system that is moving over us today and the cool, unstable air behind the front that will bring a short period of weak, onshore flow. The dominant feature that will remain in play will be a low-pressure system that remains off the coast with yet another attached cold front. This will keep a southerly flow in place over the south, central, and north Sound for the weekend in advance of the next front which will move over the area late Sunday and into early Monday. Unfortunately, the gradient will be weaker over the south Sound, so the breeze will ease there starting just after mid-day Saturday while in the central and north Sound, we should see a more consistent 10-20 knots of southerly.
The 500MB or upper-level Charts also show a consistent pattern of zonal flow with the Jet Stream continuing to come ashore well to the south of us. This will continue to keep us in a wet pattern with temperatures below normal. California is also due for two more frontal systems this coming week and since they are not coming down from the north, will bring warmer temperatures and warm rain to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Not a good combination.
If we go north tomorrow, since we’ll be sailing in an ebb it will pay to stay slightly to the west of rhumb going north. Remember that as you approach the Scatchet Head mark the ebb will increase and be flowing from east to west so build in some room to go around that mark. Remember also that the breeze tends to build once you are north of the line from Edmonds to Kingston. So plan your rounding well in advance.
After the mark which way to go home will depend on how fast you got up to the mark. If you are early at the mark and the ebb is still rolling, it will pay to tack to starboard to get back to the east and pick up the ebb out of Possession Sound, and ride that south to Pt Wells. Remember that the shallow area from Richmond Beach north to Edwards Point extends out further than you may think.
After Richmond Beach, it will probably pay to keep working that side of the Sound, however, be sure to keep an eye out to the west in case the post-frontal breeze becomes more southwesterly. If the SW breeze comes across the Sound that will help you set up for a starboard tack approach to the finish line.
If you are late getting up to the mark, it may pay to hold port tack and head to the west to pick up the start of the flood down the shore south of Pt No Pt. Hold that side until you get to Jeff Head and then sail starboard tack all the way across the Sound so you can more accurately gauge your approach to the finish.
The week’s Ouija board has the J-30 around the Scatchet Head mark at 1254 finishing at 1613. The J-105’s around SH at 1249, finishing at 1555. The J-109’s and C&C 115’s around at 1246 finishing at 1550. The J-35 around at 1300 finishing at 1605. Terremoto around at 1234 finishing at 1507. The TP-52’s around at 1228 finishing at 1448.
Have a great race, stay warm, and stay safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)