Sailing on the Salish Sea
There will be stories (and maybe even songs) about the 2023 Swiftsure Lightship Race(s), and our intrepid weather prognosticator will share some soon. In the meantime, we do know that Terramoto broke her rig and the Flattery course record. And, by the looks of things, the corrected time win as well. Results.
By the way – I’d love it if any of you have stories or photos to share. Send them!
If you’ve been watching the models this week, it has been a very interesting roller coaster ride with conditions going from extensive areas of calm to gale-force winds. Right now it looks like it could be a very nice race with wind around the course and enough breeze to make it exhilarating for the run through the Race to the finish. Particularly if you’re going through around the time of max ebb early on Sunday morning when we could have 20-30 knots of westerly. It will be like sailing in the Waring Blender.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak trough of low-pressure running up the interiors of California, Oregon, and Washington with a building high-pressure system (1031MB) offshore. This will keep the pattern we have seen in the Straits for the last couple of days holding over the weekend and into next week. That pattern is one of light breeze in the morning but building in the Straits in the afternoon and into the overnight hours.
What we do know is what the tidal current will be in Race Passage for this weekend.
Saturday
0801 Max Ebb .5 knts
1251 Max Ebb 2.7 knts
1601 Slack
2018 Max Fld 3.6 knts
2259 Slack
Sunday
0315 Max Ebb 3.9 knts
0758 Slack
0858 Max Fld .4 knts
1014 Slack
1408 Max Ebb 2.3 knts
1701 Slack
2102 Max Fld 3.3 knts
The surface forecast chart for tomorrow, while it shows an increase in the gap of the isobars over the Salish Sea, we are still going to have a nice breeze for the start and breeze all the way out the Straits. Right now it looks like 8-15 knots of WSW breeze for the start and holding until about 1100 hours when the breeze will build into the 15-22 knot range and clock to the NW. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will build into the 20-26 knot range and stay out of the NW. This will hold out to the Swiftsure Bank while it will continue to follow a traditional pattern of building from Sheringham to Hein Bank. Remember, the breeze can double from Sheringham to Race Rocks so you should prepare in advance and talk through the steps in advance of getting the spinnaker down in breezy conditions. By 1600 hours we could have 25-32 knots of NW from Sooke to Hein Bank and this will hold in this area until 0400-0700 hrs Sunday morning when it will ease to 15-20 knots.
The breeze in the Straits from Sheringham to Swiftsure Bank will hold in the 12-22 knot range until around 2200hrs when it will slowly ease to the 10-15 knot range.
By 0100 hrs breeze will be down to 8-10 knots. By 0400 hrs the breeze from Cape Flattery out to Swiftsure Bank will become light and variable and stay that way until about 1300 hrs when the westerly will fill down the Straits again.
As mentioned above, the breeze can build dramatically from Sheringham to Race Rocks, and if you’re running you better start preparing to change down and maybe just sailing through the Race with the number 3 and no spinnaker. Then resetting the kite once the wind eases and the seas flatten out.
So sunblock on first thing, foul weather gear, life jacket and harness on before you leave the dock.
Be safe, have fun and have a great race.
(Ed. note) This from our friends at the Bowen Island Yacht Club for their big Round Bowen Race. The notice of race is up! I’ve never done this race, but I have to say being part of a 100-boat start would be a hoot. The event is being sponsored by Martin Marine.
The Round Bowen Race is our most popular event. There are normally 100+ plus boats registered, and with only 1 start, makes it one of the largest single starts on the west coast. The race involves the circumnavigation of Bowen island and takes place on the 2nd Saturday in June. The race begins at 10:00am PDT, and the latest finishing time is 17:30 PDT same day.
After a warm week, the onshore flow has returned and that has brought Mother Natures’ air conditioning back to the Pacific NW. It has also sent the smoke and haze from the wildfires in BC and Alberta to Eastern Washington. Take a look at the sat pic for yesterday.
The surface analysis chart shows that we still have a weak ridge of high pressure along the coast with a weak (1014MB) low-pressure system over Eastern Washington. This will keep the onshore flow in place well into next week. Also still in place over the Gulf of Alaska is that large but weaker low-pressure system with its attached cold front. There is a possibility the tail of the cold front may drag over the area on Tuesday. The 500MB charts show that this large low protrudes into the upper atmosphere and the jet stream is such that it won’t be moving very much.
The other interesting feature in the 500MB charts is the 96 hr chart which shows an upper level, cutoff, low-pressure system forming right over the Pacific Northwest, while the jet stream travels around this low and goes into southern mainland Alaska. This could make for a very interesting Swiftsure.
Winds for the weekend will stay a little on the light side for Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet with some breeze filling down the Sound by mid to late afternoon. Wind in the Strait of JdF until mid to late afternoon will also be light however as the onshore breeze develops, it will blow in the Strait at 25-30 knots by early evening and hold until just after midnight. Sunday will see a similar pattern.
It is still a week until Swiftsure so anything could happen however, right now two models are showing that this could be a very long and very light Driftsure. So we’ll see.
Have a great weekend!
It’s going to be a perfect weekend to be on the water and especially to race around Vashon Island. A downwind start, a nice run all the way to the bottom of Vashon, the usual light spot at that point, a nice beat with the current up Colvos, at Blake Island go across the Sound when you can lay Four-mile Rock, don’t go aground south of West Point, and then after West Point tack when you can lay the finish. Easy. Plus, it will be warm. Put the sunblock on BEFORE you leave the house and then re-apply before the beat up Colvos.
Yesterday the Pacific NW Offshore Race got underway off the mouth of the Columbia River in pretty much ideal conditions and today are in a bit of light air just south of Cape Flattery. That will change this afternoon when more of a NW breeze fills down the coast. The first boats should be in Victoria early Saturday morning.
What we have today and leading into what will be the warmest days we’ve seen this year is a weak ridge of high pressure that is building along the coast. As you can see from today’s Sat Pic we also have a thermally induced surface trough of low-pressure moving up from California. With high-pressure over eastern Washington, this will bring an offshore breeze over the area and a nice northerly to Puget Sound and it will last well into the evening.
The other charts of interest will be the upper-level or 500MB charts. The jet stream is now solidly into meridional flow and now comes ashore in SE Alaska. This will have the dual effect of bringing the warmer air up from southern California as well as keeping that big low-pressure system with its attached frontal systems trapped in the Gulf of Alaska and away from the Pacific NW. Let’s just hope the snowpack doesn’t melt away too quickly. Also, look at the 96hr 500MB chart. The jet stream will then flow straight into Seward. This has caused an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system to form about halfway between Hawaii and the Pacific NW. The TransPac sailors are praying this doesn’t happen during their race.
The Vashon Race can expect 8-12 knots of northerly for the start and note that it’s northerly not NW. Yesterday and today in the 0900-1000 time slot there was more wind on the east side of the Sound with the west side pretty dead. There is also a NE component to the breeze on the south side of West Point, Alki, and Three Tree Point which is also the shortest course to Pt. Robinson. Also, remember that if you’re using SailFlow, the anemometer at the Alki Lighthouse is broken and just stays stuck at 9-10 knots from the North, even when it’s blowing from the south.
At the south end of Vashon don’t get caught too close to the Island where the current can be on your nose and the wind very light. For the beat up Colvos you’ll probably have 10-14 knots of northerly and it will follow the bends as you beat north. There won’t be much tidal current so it will be easy to find the long, favored tacks as you work your way north.
Once you exit Colvos stay on the east side of Blake Island and beat your way up to Restoration Pt. At Restoration, it will be time to take the long port tack across the Sound to Magnolia aiming roughly at Four Mile Rock. Just remember it is plenty shallow from along the bluff from Four Mile to West Pt. After you clear West Pt, hold starboard until you can tack and lay the entrance to the Ship Canal, Then plan your approach to the finish line.
Have a great race, enjoy the day, and resist the temptation to jump into the water after you finish.
Over the weekend of April 22-23 US Sailing Head Measurer (and PNW rigger for many years) Chris Tutmark got out his measuring tape (and more) to bring more boats into the ORC handicapping fold.
Tutmark explains the ORC progress being made: “There are a bunch of smaller boats in the processing queue- Pell Mell, Moonshine, Scheme (Pyramid 30), Blur (B-25) a J109 well as J111s along with a number of boats signed up for VI 360- J99s, Grand Soleil 40, Cal 39, C&C 115, J120, Cal 40, and a Club Swan 42
“For production boats like J109s, J35s, J122s and the like once we have an application along with crew weight and sail dimensions we can generate a certificate pretty simply and quickly since there are a good number of examples already in the ORC system.”
Fittingly, the measurement fest was followed by Seattle Yacht Club’s Protection Island Race on April 29 which featured 16 boats in three ORC classes.
It will be particularly interesting to see how disparate boats correct out on each other in a variety of conditions. Currently there are no ORC-targeted designs in the region, and it’s up for discussion as to whether or not those exist right now.
It’s not going to be the nicest weekend but it also won’t be freezing cold. We’ll get most of the rain over by tonight however there will still be a few passing showers around tomorrow. In other words, just another spring-like day in the Pacific NW. The one thing you won’t have to worry about this weekend is too much wind. Tidal currents will be an issue because of the light air. At least for Saturday, you’ll have the big ebb of the day to push you north. Just be ready to take your time at Foul Weather Bluff(FWB), because when the flood starts, the wind will ease, making getting around Marrowstone a challenge.
Tidal Currents Admiralty Inlet Off Of Bush Pt.
0624 Slack
0918 Max Ebb 3.01 knts
1218 Slack
1548 Max Flood 2.87 knts
1948 Slack
Sunday
0624 Slack
0954 Max Ebb 3.07 knts
1254 Slack
1548 Max Flood 2.96 knts
2048 Slack
The sat pic for today and the surface analysis chart show the weak front that’s going over us today as well as the centers of the two low-pressure systems off of the coast. One is off of the Strait of JdF and one off of the Calf-Oregon border. Both are weak systems however with the jet stream remaining well to the south, these systems won’t be moving very fast or very far.
The surface forecast charts for the weekend continue to show a very weak pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. With light conditions for Saturday and 15-20 knots of SSW for Sunday. Saturday will start off with light and variable breeze until about noonish when a light northerly will fill down with the start of the flood tide, the Swihart Effect. You may have 10-12 knts of northerly from Pt No Pt to FWB just not much beyond FWB. There will also be plenty of breeze in the Straits, it just won’t get as far as Pt. Townsend.
Sunday will benefit the big boats and later starters as they will have more breeze and it will be a beat. The early starters will be in less wind and the start of the ebb. By 0900-1000hrs you could have 15-20 knots of SSW breeze. This however will only last until about 1200 hrs when it will start to ease and by 1500 hrs the breeze will be 4-8 knots of SSW from Jeff Head to the finish.
All in all, as it always is, it will be a great, fun weekend. Just be safe, and good luck!
Pacific NW Offshore Race starts May 11th and while it may look like these low-pressure systems may pose a threat, they will remain offshore and provide racers with challenging and frustrating conditions. Maybe a little bit of running for the start off of the Columbia River becoming a close reach and then a beat the rest of the way to Victoria. First finishers in on Saturday afternoon. Luckily this could all change by Thursday, keep your fingers crossed. We will have an update on Monday and then a more detailed forecast for the Skippers meeting on Wednesday.
Congratulations to Kirsten Neuschӓfer winning the 2022 Golden Globe Race in 235 days, in a Port Townsend-built Cape George 36, OUTSTANDING!
Finally, the spring we’ve come to expect has arrived! Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show a thermal trough along the coast and as this builds, offshore flow will increase, and combined with downslope compressional heating you have the record temps we are enjoying today. While this may impact our snowpack, it’s not going to last as this trough will drift inland and onshore flow will develop on Saturday. Sunday a weak front will drift over the Salish Sea allowing the cooler, onshore flow to continue. We should enjoy a week of mild weather with little or no rain until, of course, Opening Day! That’s still a ways off so we’ll see.
All of this is pretty good news for the Protection Island Race as we will probably have a downwind start in 8-12 knots of wind which should hold until Marrowstone Island, where the onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF will bring WNW of breeze to the race course somewhere between 1200-1500hrs. This breeze will continue down the Sound to about Elliott Bay and hold until about 2200 hrs on Saturday. Then the next front will bring SSW breeze of 12-18 knots to waters south of Pt No Pt for the rest of the weekend and into next week.
The other part of the Protection Island equation is the tidal current in Admiralty Inlet and this weekend, the tides won’t be bad and with the current weather forecast, you will have enough wind to counter the anti-water. Since the current will be against you around the course, you will still have to play the usual back eddies.
Tidal Current Admiralty Inlet, off of Bush Point.
0800 Slack
1048 Max Flood 1.34 knts
1336 Slack
1618 Max Ebb 1.26 knts
1912 Slack
2242 Max Flood 1.77 knts
0300 Slack
0612 Max Ebb 1.53 knts
The tough part of this race will be the transition zones, especially the ones between Pt No Pt and Pt Townsend on the way up and between Pt No Pt and the finish on the way back. Keep the eyes out of the boat and let the trimmers trim and the drivers drive.
Have a great weekend! Get out that sunblock and use just like do like you do voting in Chicago, early and often.
For those of us looking for inspiration to keep sailing (and living life to its fullest) into “maturity,” we need look no further than solo sailor Jeanne Socrates. She’s set records as the oldest singlehanded circumnavigator via the five great Capes and first woman to circumnavigate starting and ending in North America. I’ve had the great good fortune to write about Jeanne in the past and even talk to her by satellite phone while she’s offshore. She’s at it again at age 80. This time it’s not intended as a record breaking circumnavigation, but more like a Pacific cruise with stops along the way, ending up in the Antipodes. She calls Victoria her home port much of the time, so we get to claim her as part of the PNW community.
Jeanne asked me to help drum up some subscribers to her Youtube channel. Yes, folks, she’s a Youtuber. It’s the least I can do. Subscribe here.
In the meantime, here’s Jeanne as she overcomes a less than trouble free start:
I agree, we are all pretty tired of this cool and wet weather we’ve had so far this April. We are still about an inch of rainfall ahead for the month and still about 5” behind for the year. We still have not had a day this month where the high temp was over 60°F. We -+
Today’s surface chart and sat pic show that we are still in for a mostly cloudy and slightly damp weekend. We have a weak high-pressure system (1033MB) off the central California coast and a weak trough of low pressure over the Salish Sea. The front we had yesterday has moved on to the east while another weak front will come ashore late tonight and into tomorrow morning, followed by yet another front late on Sunday.
Overall, there will be more wind on Sunday than there will be on Saturday. In the eastern Strait of JdF, we could have 15-20 knots of ESE in the morning however that will ease to 10-12 knots of SE by mid-afternoon. The South Sound will be light all-day however the Central Sound may start off light, a S to SSW wind of 10-12 knots will fill by mid-day and then ease by the late afternoon.
Sunday will start light in the South Sound but be 15-20 knots from the SSW for Central Sound and that will hold for most of the day.
The other charts of interest today are the 48, 72, and 96 hr 500MB charts. They show a change from the mostly zonal flow we had to a more meridional flow by the 25th of April. This is also allowing the jet stream to slowly but steadily come ashore further and further north. This is what will bring warmer temps to our area by next weekend.
Have a great weekend.