If you’ve been watching the models this week, it has been a very interesting roller coaster ride with conditions going from extensive areas of calm to gale-force winds. Right now it looks like it could be a very nice race with wind around the course and enough breeze to make it exhilarating for the run through the Race to the finish. Particularly if you’re going through around the time of max ebb early on Sunday morning when we could have 20-30 knots of westerly. It will be like sailing in the Waring Blender.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak trough of low-pressure running up the interiors of California, Oregon, and Washington with a building high-pressure system (1031MB) offshore. This will keep the pattern we have seen in the Straits for the last couple of days holding over the weekend and into next week. That pattern is one of light breeze in the morning but building in the Straits in the afternoon and into the overnight hours.
What we do know is what the tidal current will be in Race Passage for this weekend.
Saturday
0801 Max Ebb .5 knts
1251 Max Ebb 2.7 knts
1601 Slack
2018 Max Fld 3.6 knts
2259 Slack
Sunday
0315 Max Ebb 3.9 knts
0758 Slack
0858 Max Fld .4 knts
1014 Slack
1408 Max Ebb 2.3 knts
1701 Slack
2102 Max Fld 3.3 knts
The surface forecast chart for tomorrow, while it shows an increase in the gap of the isobars over the Salish Sea, we are still going to have a nice breeze for the start and breeze all the way out the Straits. Right now it looks like 8-15 knots of WSW breeze for the start and holding until about 1100 hours when the breeze will build into the 15-22 knot range and clock to the NW. By mid-afternoon, the breeze will build into the 20-26 knot range and stay out of the NW. This will hold out to the Swiftsure Bank while it will continue to follow a traditional pattern of building from Sheringham to Hein Bank. Remember, the breeze can double from Sheringham to Race Rocks so you should prepare in advance and talk through the steps in advance of getting the spinnaker down in breezy conditions. By 1600 hours we could have 25-32 knots of NW from Sooke to Hein Bank and this will hold in this area until 0400-0700 hrs Sunday morning when it will ease to 15-20 knots.
The breeze in the Straits from Sheringham to Swiftsure Bank will hold in the 12-22 knot range until around 2200hrs when it will slowly ease to the 10-15 knot range.
By 0100 hrs breeze will be down to 8-10 knots. By 0400 hrs the breeze from Cape Flattery out to Swiftsure Bank will become light and variable and stay that way until about 1300 hrs when the westerly will fill down the Straits again.
As mentioned above, the breeze can build dramatically from Sheringham to Race Rocks, and if you’re running you better start preparing to change down and maybe just sailing through the Race with the number 3 and no spinnaker. Then resetting the kite once the wind eases and the seas flatten out.
So sunblock on first thing, foul weather gear, life jacket and harness on before you leave the dock.
Be safe, have fun and have a great race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)