Derelict Tug Going Going Gone

Derelict Tug Going Going Gone

And in Ballard this morning…..

Thanks to alert reader Nigel Barron!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21 March. GHYC Islands Race.

Well, this will be a short report. The rain is backing off, the jet stream will stay south which will keep the systems going into California. This will also keep temperatures a little cooler than normal. At least for the tomorrow the high will finally be in the low 60’s.

The problem for the Islands Race will be that the breeze is going to be light and variable over the Salish Sea for most of the day tomorrow. As you look at the surface charts, the gap in the isobars is fairly wide, so no pressure gradient. So pretty much you can expect 0-5 knots of wind, at least it won’t be raining and the temp will be in the 60’s.

Enjoy the weekend.  

(Ed. Note: Racers might be interested in checking out the ORC article posted earlier today.)

ORC – It’s Not Just for Big Boats in the PNW Any More

The longstanding stranglehold PHRF (Performance Handicap Racing Fleet) holds over PNW handicapping may be waning as ORC (the acronym goes back to Offshore Rating Congress) rises. I’ve thought this, and been wrong, before. This time there appears to be a groundswell of support from owners of smaller boats.

There are a couple of elements at work, the difficulties and frustration with PHRF and the growing international acceptance of ORC as the common measurement rule and handicapping system.

Earlier this year, three custom boats hulls were scanned – a prerequisite for custom boats or those not in the ORC database. It’s part of a big new push to give ORC handicapping a foothold in the smaller boat classes. For years the “big boats” have been racing under ORC while the smaller and slower boats have held fast with PHRF. More boats will be measured in April.  

It may help that the Head Measurer for US Sailing is none other than the rigger Chris Tutmark, who has rigged (and measured) many PNW racing boats over the last few decades.

I asked Alex Simanis of Ballard Sails, Nigel Barron of CSR Marine and Chris Tutmark (all instrumental in promoting ORC) to share some thoughts.

Alex Simanis

I think many current PHRF members are seeking a new rating alternative. While I am not an expert in the ORC world, I am becoming more and more educated in the process of obtaining a cert, and the processes for different boats to get them.

Pell Mell being measured in the cold and dark.

My 26-footer Pell Mell has been fully inclined, measured, weighed, and now has been scanned in anticipation of applying for an ORCi (fully measured cert). Most big races on the west coast require a fully measured ORR or ORC cert, and with our level of participation in events outside of Puget sound coming up in the next few years it is a no- brainer.

The fact of the matter is that PHRF is a blunt instrument, and the ratings in the PNW have become very skewed compared to other parts of the country. The current leadership does not  seem very interested in looking at actual deltas between boats, or even observed performance. 

There are also a number of loopholes in the PHRF NW rule book that they seem reluctant to close. 

An ORC rating is actually based in science. The ORC organization spends a lot of money annually getting their VPP programs updated, and they continually revise rules and guidelines for ratings.

One thing that I have felt for years is that there is no way to rate boats on a single number system. Some boats perform very linearly, some do not. I do believe that when boats have been fully measured, and race committees do a good job of administering the system, it should be a more fair system for a wide range of boats, across a wide range of conditions. 

It seems like each rating band has an owner or a few owners rara-ing the ORC movement. 

The big boats have been racing under ORC club for a few years now. Now, the +/- 18 raters are getting massive interest.

We had Moonshine, Pell Mell, and Scheme (Pyramid 30) hull scanned These super custom boats needed the hull files for ORC to work with.

In the United States, US Sailing is  the authority in making ORC Certs, and in charge of administering the rule. After a great chat with Chris Tutmark last week, who is now the US sailing head measurer, he informed me that applying through US sailing is super simple and a one stop shop for ORC/ ORR ratings. You will have to apply, and input data that you have. US Sailing may require more data, depending on the level of rating required.

It is my understanding that most well known production boats already have hull files. So that part will be easy. The weight, inclines and other measurements need to be done by an approved measurer. Chris Tutmark is working with a few local people to get them up to speed on measuring. There will be a big round of measuring/training coming up in April.

For each boat there are multiple ratings, for buoy racing, random leg, and off wind. These are driven by average wind strength chosen by the race committee. There are different ways of coming to this.

As for worldwide acceptance, it seems like ORC is especially taking hold in Europe. 

On the east coast, there are a growing number of certificates, and many more events are using this rule, right down to evening beer can races. On the West Coast, St. Francis YC has agreed to adopt the rule for their major events including the Rolex Big Boat series. Van Isle 360 requires ORC. Overall, it seems like this is here to stay.

PHRF will likely always be around. it is good for local beer cans, etc. The reality is that PHRF does not have tools that measurement based rules do.  

Nigel Barron

The issue I see with PHRF is that it was a rule designed long before boats could get up on a plane.  As Alex says, it’s a single number system so can’t account for how those boats react in different conditions.  ORC is gaining momentum.  Really the last major races on the West Coast that use anything other than ORC are Transpac, Pacific Cup and Cabo San Lucas.  All are California races, hanging on with their last death grip to their rule (ORR – Offshore Racing Rule).  Royal Victoria’s Vic-Maui Race uses ORC.

Additionally, PHRF has a habit of adjusting ratings and considering that rating change in vacuum without consideration of what it does to the boats around or in the same relative range.

The Pyramid 30 Scheme gets scanned as well.

One of the biggest things holding back ORC implementation in Seattle is the aversion of certain yacht clubs to do anything to help it or to score it correctly.  For many years, Corinthian Yacht Club used the GPH number on the certificate in spite of the fact that it clearly states, do not use this number – it’s only for class breaks.  CYC still, even now with the Center Sound Series insists on using only the ToT All-Purpose Medium number.  SYC will use the triple number system and uses the appropriate wind range.  CYC, by doing this, negates all the advantages of having a multi-number rating system.

Getting a certificate is relatively simple.  It gets a little more complicated for a one-off design or boat that has had a lot of modifications.  Truly the best part for me is the idea that you can’t have an argument with an inanimate object.  You put data in, and a rating comes out.  That’s it.  No politics, no consideration as to how it fits in a fleet, just a number.

Chris Tutmark

I had been working as a local measurer since 2017 for the measurement rules, both ORC and ORR. In the PNW ORR is not used but races in CA do use ORR. The prior Head Measurer reached out to me when he decided to retire a little over a year ago. I interviewed for the position in Mid-April and my first day was May 1. I split time working in the office and remotely until I could relocate to RI in August.

There are three of us in the Offshore office; Jim Teeters who is head of the office, Sydney Hough and me. We support all handicap systems in use by US boats; ORC, ORR, IRC and PHRF.  In regard to numbers, in 2022,  we issued close to 1000 ORC certificates, just over 300 ORR certificate and a smaller number of IRC certificates for US boats racing in Europe, the Caribbean and Australia. As 2022 was a Newport-Bermuda year we expect a slight downturn in ORR certificates for 2023 with ORC continuing to expand in North America.  Some areas have or are expanding ORC for weeknight and more casual racing. Annapolis added ORC for weeknight racing in 2022, Detroit is planning to do this in 2023 and clubs in San Diego are also looking into this.

A part of my job is to give the local measurers the tools/skills to get boats measured in their areas. In the PNW, my departure created a gap in the coverage so my trip there in April will be to work with some people who have expressed interest in becoming measurers as well as getting boats measured which need to be measured. Most of these are custom or semi-custom boats where sistership data is not available or the boat is different from sisterships. For production boats the process is very quick to get a rating, should a boat want to be directly measured, this can be arranged, and that data will be applied for that boat’s rating.

For those boats who need an ORC certificate, the first step is on the US Sailing ORC page https://www.ussailing.org/competition/offshore/orc/ On the page is large red button to “Start your 2023 ORC Application” https://www.ussailing.org/competition/offshore/orc/#application which takes the sailor to a list of items to have handy for the application.  If someone has questions or runs into difficulties with the application, they can always reach out to us in the office offshore@USsailing.org or me directly christutmark@ussailing.org.  This offer also applies to YCs/OAs which may have questions on scoring or how to use the variety of ratings that are produced on an ORC certificate. As part of my trip to the PNW we are also looking at doing a presentation- Q&A  session in Seattle, details are still being finalized. (Ed. Note: We’ll share those details when they’re available)

With a full staff in the offshore office and our new application form, we are looking forward to 2023 and helping sailors get their certificates.

My Thoughts

The problem with PHRF coincides with its strength, flexibility. PHRF evolved as an inexpensive handicapping system that could rate disparate boats for the predominant conditions in a given area. With enough data, interpreted by experienced handicappers, this would be perfect. And it served its purpose, to a degree, for decades.

The TP52s Smoke and Glory, plus all other big boats, have been using ORC successfully for several years. Jan Anderson photo.

Problems with PHRF are well known, but in my opinion, they come down to one simple element – the human factor. Handicappers are human, and humans (whether they know it or not) are susceptible to preconceptions, prejudices and mis-information. 

Competitive sailors are also human. When they fail to compete effectively, they seek a reason. In one-design, it all basically comes down to the sailors themselves, how they prepared themselves and the boat and how they sailed. In handicapped racing, it’s much the same – the sailors are responsible for boat preparation and decisions on the race course.

But then there’s the additional element of  handicapping. The key here is perception of fairness. Usually a “wrong” handicap doesn’t affect results too much – an unfair rating might mean a place or two. However, the competitive sailor goes directly to the reason why they didn’t win. If the non-winners feel they’ve been unfairly penalized, or that the competition has been given a “gift” rating, it’s hard for them to feel good about the racing. If a winner senses their competitors feel he/she has a gift rating, winning doesn’t feel so good. These feelings abound after racing, especially close racing, and if there’s even a hint of human error in the rating (which in PHRF is all the time) the discussion focuses on that.

Then there’s the chance to protest one’s own or one’s competitor’s rating by presenting to a roomful of handicappers. This “opportunity” has caused untold stress for anyone involved and left countless friendly competitor relationships in tatters.

For some, this whole fairness thing doesn’t matter much to their enjoyment. They’re happy to be on the water in the company of other boats, and if there’s a victory involved it’s a bonus. But for the more competitive sailor, the sense of fairness means a lot.

Measurement rules are not panaceas. Problems always arise and ratings often seem unfair. But at least the system gets blamed and not Joe Handicapper or that skipper who wrote a 200-page legal brief to get their rating changed. A measurement system makes it much easier to toast one’s competitors back at the club.

True Spirit the Movie

True Spirit the Movie

If you’re like me, you have some mixed emotions any time a sailing movie comes out. I keep hoping one of those brilliant movie minds will somehow share with the world how great sailing is. Sometimes it comes close. More often, we get The Whomper (Wind) or the abysmal All is Lost. I’m pleased to report that True Spirit, the recently released Netflix movie about Jessica Watson’s circumnavigation, is engaging and accurate enough. It is only cringe-worthy in a few places, which for a sailing movie makes it a success.

Actress Teagan Croft as Jessica Watson

First off, Jessica Watson’s story is remarkable. You might remember when in 2010 the 16-year-old sailed into Sydney Harbor to be greeted by 100,000 thousand adoring Aussies including the prime minister. She is the youngest person to solo circumnavigate nonstop. While much of the sailing world wasn’t aware of her trip until that moment, Aussies had been tracking it all along. The movie makes clear just how important this voyage was to Australians.

The movie splits time between “Jess” on the boat and her family watching from home. Unlike sailors like my childhood hero Robin Lee Graham, today’s adolescent voyagers can (and do) call home daily on satellite phones. And with help from big sisters on shore, they even blog en route.

As far as the sailing footage and computer-generated monster waves, I’m reminded of A Perfect Storm. Some sensorial things can’t be generated in a computer. The cringe-worth moments were an overly drawn-out pitchpoling which left the lovely S&S 34 upside down for an eternity. While it surely felt like that to Watson, the sailors in the audience will likely cringe at the boat being upside down long enough for the EPIRB to go off, that information to be picked up by the rescue services, and a phone call made to the family.

Anna Paquin had the most impressive acting performance as Watson’s mother, transitioning from supportive and loving to her daughter and family, then breaking down with fear when the time came to be afraid. Teagan Croft does a good job of portraying Watson, and director Sarah Spillane managed to craft a movie that is inspiring but not too sappy.

The real Jessica Watson.Photo by Kate Dyer

My favorite moment in the movie was when the sailing community pulled together. I’ll bet they did just that. And I’m so glad Watson did her circumnavigation in a modest (but well built and prepared) older 34-footer. No need for new or big.

You might remember Maidentrip, the story of Laura Dekker’s circumnavigation. That too was a worthwhile movie and an amazing story.

I’d suggest going to the history vs. Hollywood website page to weed through the real vs fiction versions.

As an aside, moviemakers seem to be drawn to idea of a girl circumnavigating as opposed to a boy. One thing that True Spirit, Maidentrip and Jeanne Socrates‘ voyages make clear: the love for sailing and the desire to head out to sea doesn’t have much to do with gender or age. Girls of any age are just as drawn to it and capable as boys of any age, if not more. No serious sailors I know would see it any other way.

Horsfield Ahead Approaching Lorient

Horsfield Ahead Approaching Lorient

The final leg of the Globe 40 race is coming to a conclusion, and the PNW’s own Craig Horsfield is holding on to the lead with 450 miles to go.

Craig Horsfield

This leg has had very challenging conditions from the start. It is ending as it started, with a match race between the two Globe 40 overall leaders, Horsfield’s Amhas and the Dutch team aboard Sec Hayai. To win the round the world race overall, Amhas would have to put a boat between them and the Dutch. That seems highly unlikely, since the third place boat is 300+ miles behind.

Here’s the most recent press release:


After suffering in recent days in the Azores the passage of a front generating winds up to 60 knots, the competitors of the GLOBE40 will have to face today and Monday a new depression on arrival in the Bay of Biscay with winds up to 50 knots and seas up to 10 m deep in the northern part of the Gulf. Faced with this situation, the leader of the AMHAS stage yesterday decided to slow down voluntarily to get behind the hardest part of the phenomenon.

Amhas is pink, Sec Hayai is orange.

A difficult choice, as Craig Horsfield explained to us “We’re going to try to slow down, we’re going to look east by slowing down. We only have one mainsail and 3 reefs. Above all we are disgusted after all these days of racing and hard work to get a lead that we have effectively stopped for now. It is hard to do and to accept”.

GRYPHON SOLO 2, which passed through the Azores yesterday, expresses the extreme harshness of these moments: Joe Harris “Last night was the most difficult night of our entire trip around the world. The wind and sea state continued to build until we were in 9m seas and winds gusting to 60 knots. We had prepared with 3 reefs in the mainsail and the staysail, which worked well up to 50 knots of wind. But the gusts overhead rocked the boat hard and made Roger and I, huddled in the cabin, wonder if we were going to get knocked down and rolled over. It was scary. We were both thinking of life rafts, EPIRBs and rescues. But eventually the 60 knot gusts died down and we were able to continue…. It makes you think.

SEC HAYAI in second position maintains a significant lead over GRYPHON SOLO 2 (284 miles this morning)..

The first arrivals in Lorient are scheduled for Wednesday 15. (photo Roger Junet)

Wx For 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 March. Race #2 Center Sound Series, “Best Course for the Day”

Wx For 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 March. Race #2 Center Sound Series, “Best Course for the Day”

At least the models this week are pretty much in alignment with the forecast in that there should be more wind going north than going south. After last week where none of the models were in agreement, the one that was the closest was the UW MM5 hi-res which was extremely close right up until the end. So we’ll take a closer look at that one this week.

In the rainfall totals as of today, we are only .11” behind and for a while this week we actually got a little ahead. Year to date we are at 6.59” compared to an average of 10.79” so still 4.2” behind for the year. At least there won’t be as much rain tomorrow as there was last Saturday. Plenty of time to make up for the rainfall shortage this coming week. It’s also interesting that NOAA officially declared our La Niña threepeat over and possibly trending to an El Niño oscillation. Plenty of time for that to change as well.

Tidal Currents for Saturday

West Point

0630       Slack

0830       Max ebb              .43 knts

1042       Slack

1618       Max fld                 .83 knts

1948       Slack

Foulweather Bluff (in case we go north)

0725       Slack     

1054       Max ebb              2.51 knts

1418       Slack

1706       Max fld                2.02 knts

Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the frontal system that is moving over us today and the cool, unstable air behind the front that will bring a short period of weak, onshore flow. The dominant feature that will remain in play will be a low-pressure system that remains off the coast with yet another attached cold front. This will keep a southerly flow in place over the south, central, and north Sound for the weekend in advance of the next front which will move over the area late Sunday and into early Monday. Unfortunately, the gradient will be weaker over the south Sound, so the breeze will ease there starting just after mid-day Saturday while in the central and north Sound, we should see a more consistent 10-20 knots of southerly.  

The 500MB or upper-level Charts also show a consistent pattern of zonal flow with the Jet Stream continuing to come ashore well to the south of us. This will continue to keep us in a wet pattern with temperatures below normal. California is also due for two more frontal systems this coming week and since they are not coming down from the north, will bring warmer temperatures and warm rain to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Not a good combination.

If we go north tomorrow, since we’ll be sailing in an ebb it will pay to stay slightly to the west of rhumb going north. Remember that as you approach the Scatchet Head mark the ebb will increase and be flowing from east to west so build in some room to go around that mark. Remember also that the breeze tends to build once you are north of the line from Edmonds to Kingston. So plan your rounding well in advance.

After the mark which way to go home will depend on how fast you got up to the mark. If you are early at the mark and the ebb is still rolling, it will pay to tack to starboard to get back to the east and pick up the ebb out of Possession Sound, and ride that south to Pt Wells. Remember that the shallow area from Richmond Beach north to Edwards Point extends out further than you may think.

After Richmond Beach, it will probably pay to keep working that side of the Sound, however, be sure to keep an eye out to the west in case the post-frontal breeze becomes more southwesterly. If the SW breeze comes across the Sound that will help you set up for a starboard tack approach to the finish line.

If you are late getting up to the mark, it may pay to hold port tack and head to the west to pick up the start of the flood down the shore south of Pt No Pt. Hold that side until you get to Jeff Head and then sail starboard tack all the way across the Sound so you can more accurately gauge your approach to the finish.

The week’s Ouija board has the J-30 around the Scatchet Head mark at 1254 finishing at 1613. The J-105’s around SH at 1249, finishing at 1555. The J-109’s and C&C 115’s around at 1246 finishing at 1550. The J-35 around at 1300 finishing at 1605. Terremoto around at 1234 finishing at 1507. The TP-52’s around at 1228 finishing at 1448.

Have a great race, stay warm, and stay safe. 

Still “Holding Fast”

Here’s a second excerpt from Susan Cole’s cruising memoir, “Holding Fast.” (The Chapter 1 excerpt ran in November) Cole joins the many Northwest sailing and adventure authors already here, including Wendy HinmanJordan HanssenJim Lynch, Jeffrey Briggs and others. KH

Excerpt from Chapter 21: Hurricane Mitch

I first heard about Hurricane Mitch at dinner with Andre and Vivienne in the thatched-roofed marina restaurant. John had been gone about a week. Eating at the awful marina restaurant, our conversation revolved around fabulous meals we had enjoyed elsewhere, in contrast to the rubbery steak and tasteless bread we now consumed. Kate, Emilie, and Hugo played tag under the empty tables. Some boaters focused on a TV at the bar where a weatherman pointed to a cloudy mass drifting around the Western Caribbean.

“A hurricane but it doesn’t look like it is headed our direction. And Category 1 is not bad,” Andre said after wandering over to the TV to check it out.

I trusted Andre’s judgment. Andre and Vivienne had sailed across the Atlantic and raced in world-class sailing races. I wasn’t sure, though, whether he would play it down to keep me from worrying. The pit of my stomach tingled. The others who had listened to the weather milled around, ordering more watery Gallo beer, yawning, and playing cards. A couple of people leafed through the used books, looking for something to read before bed. It was the end of October, late in the season for a hurricane. It didn’t feel like a crisis. Still, I wanted John around if something major was happening.

The next morning, I dropped Kate off at Renee’s boat, Big Easy, and went to Felipe’s Internet café in Fronteras to write John and see what information Felipe had about Hurricane Mitch. Before this voyage, I associated the dinghy with New England seafood dinners in Connecticut harbors or Block Island. On summer weekends, we would pass other sailors heading into shore to quaint seaside restaurants—a man running the dinghy, a woman, and children crowded alongside. Since John left, Kate and I had been bombing around the river on White Fang together, and on our own. We wondered how we could have been so chicken about it earlier. We were like teenagers who had just gotten our licenses. But we were not on a summer vacation; the dinghy was our lifeline.

Felipe sat before his computer with a small crowd of locals and cruisers around him. He was in his thirties, mustachioed, and six feet tall, an unusual height here. He had lived in the States before returning to his native country. 

The satellite picture on Felipe’s screen showed a fiery mass covering most of the Western Caribbean. Mitch was huge. Winds had strengthened to Category 5. At two hundred miles per hour, it was the largest and strongest hurricane on record. It had strengthened rapidly from the evening before. A few hundred miles out, its direction was unclear. Mitch seemed to be heading north, meaning it would miss us, but there was talk of evacuation. We gawked at each other.

“I’ll keep track of it and broadcast over the radio. Check channel 67 and call me if you want,” Felipe said in Spanish, then in English. He printed out a copy of the satellite map and scotch-taped it to the window in his door.

In a daze, I headed for a computer to check email. I would have to handle a Category 5 storm without John. Right now, the sun was out but that would change soon enough. John and I had weathered a couple of weak hurricanes when we lived in Connecticut on Phaedrus, but Hurricane Mitch was on a different scale altogether. This was not the first time John was away during a storm, either. He had been away for the storm in Beaufort, North Carolina. But now, I was in a poor foreign country, in what was shaping up as a major disaster. I became conscious of my shallow breaths. As I sat at a computer to log in, a cold shiver wriggled through my gut.

John had just heard about Mitch—his email had yesterday’s date when Mitch was not yet very powerful. He wished he could be with us. Just hearing his words in my head calmed me. I looked around to see people shouting anxiously into Felipe’s long-distance phones and frantically typing on keyboards.

To learn more about Susan or order Holding Fast, visit Susan’s website.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, and 6 March. CYC Blakely Rock Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, and 6 March. CYC Blakely Rock Race

This will certainly be interesting. It is the first race of the Center Sound series so it will be good to just get back on the water. It won’t be warm but at least it won’t be snowing, just raining on the Sound. The Olympics and the Cascades will be another story. As far as rain goes, while it may only be the 3rd of March, we are already slightly behind for the month. For the year we are 4.2” behind, while the snowpack is way ahead for this time of the year. With the jet stream being where it is, the temps will tend to stay below normal for some time to come.

The short story for tomorrow is that NONE of the models are in agreement. Today’s surface analysis and the two surface forecast charts for tomorrow will give you a good indication as to why the models are having such a tough time coming into agreement. Today’s surface analysis chart simply shows a broad trough of low pressure off to the NW of Vancouver Island and the potential for a weak low-pressure system to form off the coast. Combine this with a jet stream (note the 500MB charts) that is coming ashore well south of us, and the surface forecast charts that show that this low-pressure system simply won’t be going anywhere. Instead, as it drifts around and bumps into the coastal buffer zone, it will just continue to weaken while sending in a weak occluded front sometime tomorrow morning that will weaken as it comes ashore. Not a very dynamic picture. If however, you are up in the Strait of JdF, there will be plenty of breeze from the ESE. Since the low will remain offshore this will keep a pressure gradient with very much an E to SE component over much of the Salish Sea. The problem will be in the Center Sound where because it’s a relatively weak gradient, the breeze could be very light.

How light? One model had the TP-52’s finishing just after 2000hrs and the J-35 finishing at 2235 hrs. Let’s not go with that. At least two of the models have the breeze staying out of the ESE for the entire day but never getting above 8 knots. The UW model has the breeze starting out from ESE at 12-18 knots before easing to 5-12 knots and then switching to SW 8-12 before it eases to 5 knots from the south by late afternoon before it switches to the ESE at 8-15 knots by early evening.

So we still have to sail with what we’ve got so start logging the breeze this evening at West Point(S-29knts now), Destruction Island(SE-18), the JA Buoy at the mouth of the Straits(SSE-18),  and Race Rocks(ESE-7). Also log the barometric pressure, at the same places so you can see what gradient is developing.  1400hrs WP 1013.6 Falling, DI 1011.9 Falling, JA 1010.2 Falling, and RR 1011.9 Falling.

Luckily tidal currents should be minimal:

Current at West Point

0712       Slack

1154       Max Fld                 .39 knts

1436       Slack

1606       Max Ebb               .24 knts

1800       Slack

With the wind we are currently having and the rain we’ve had, this will tend to start the ebb sooner and extend the ebb. It will also decrease the velocity of the flood.

March 4 MM5

The usual topographic effects will be in play so you will want to get a clear air start at the favored end of the line and hold starboard until you can lay West Point. It’s possible this could be a one-tack beat to Blakely Rock. The other problem will be that with the reverse start finding and keeping a clear air lane is going to be tough. If after West Point you find yourself stuck, don’t hesitate to take a short clearing tack to starboard to get back into clear air. You will also want to be watching the boats ahead of you to see if the ESE breeze holds or is there a knock as you sail across the Sound. 

The next question will be if the breeze is from the ESE,  is the crew good enough to do a port pole set at Blakely Rock and then gybe immediately when you can safely clear the west end of the Rock? If the breeze is from the S to SW then just do the port pole set when you are squared away. Hold the port gybe until you can gybe and be aimed at the leeward mark. Generally, it pays to stay slightly to the west of the rhumbline.

At the bottom mark, get on the wind and try to find that lane of clear air for the long beat to the finish. If it is starting to go light, don’t let too many people accumulate in the cockpit. Shift the weight forward and to leeward to keep the stern out of the water and slightly heeled. Again, keep watching the boats ahead of you for some indication about what wind direction you’ll be dealing with at the finish. If the breeze is out of the south hold starboard tack in towards the beach because once again it will tend to be SE along the east side of the Sound. Then you will need to start figuring out which end of the line is favored so you sail the shortest possible course. If the breeze is out of the ESE don’t sail so far into the beach that you overstand the finish. 

The more optimistic model has the TP-52’s finishing around 1443. The J-105’s in at 1611, the C&C 115’s and J-109’s in at 1558, the J-35 in at 1606, Terremoto in at 1455, and the J-30 in at 1708. Let’s hope!

Have a great race, stay warm, and be safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Toliva Shoal Race and it looks like a very interesting one!

As I said in my Wednesday night presentation to the OYC and SSSS, I expected conditions to change just because of the lack of movement of systems and the amorphous behavior of the systems over the Pacific NW. Today’s surface analysis chart shows high-pressure systems to the north and south of us with low-pressure systems to the east and west of us. By tomorrow morning we’ll simply have a weak (1018MB) low pressure offshore with an attached cold front. As this system comes onshore it will weaken and a strong post-frontal onshore flow will develop along the coast bringing a 20-25 knot NW breeze. There will also be a nice flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound in the morning and early afternoon. There will also be a nice flow down the Strait of JdF and then into the Central and South Sound. This is how things will get interesting for Toliva Shoal. The other caveat here is that none of the models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow.

By the 19th of Feb we’ll have a nice and round Pacific High which would be great if we getting ready for Hawaii however this time of the year it will simply serve to deflect storm systems away from us. The really interesting chart is the 96hr (21 Feb) surface forecast. The Pacific High has deepened to 1046MB and moved into the Gulf of Alaska while two weak low-pressure systems remain over the Salish Sea, This will bring yet another cold snap to our area as well as a chance of lowland snow. Luckily, all we may get for Toliva is some light rain.

So how does all this breakdown for the race? The good news is that we’ll have wind for the start and a pretty favorable wind direction and wind strength all the way to Toliva Shoal. After Toliva, just as we go to the big ebb of the day, the wind will start to shift to the west and drop in speed. Here’s how it will break down.

1000 start SSW wind 8-15 knots. Downwind start!

1100-1200 Breeze holds from the SSW at 8-15 knots.

1200 A slightly stronger flow develops through the Chehalis Gap 10-18 knots of SW breeze from Johnson Pt to Toliva Shoal.

1300 SW 10-15 Anderson Isl to Toliva, Balch Passage to Devils Head becoming W to 10 knots Johnson Pt to Cooper Pt.

Navigators will want to start plotting wind direction and wind strength down the Strait of JdF, down Admiralty Inlet, and down the Sound as the onshore flow builds. This will weaken the flow through the Chehalis Gap.

1400 Wind Westerly 8-12 knots over the course.

1500 Wind westerly easing to 5-10 knots.

1600 Wind ENE 3-8 knots Toliva and Balch Passage. Wind westerly 4-8 knots Dana Passage to Finish. Convergence zone developing  Balch to Johnson Pt.

1700 Wind ENE 3-6 knots Toliva to Devils H. Wind Westerly 3-6 knots Dana Pass to finish

1800-Time Limit: Wind light and variable over the course

Here’s where we roll the dice and break out the Meadow Point Marine/Sailish.Com Dart Board.

Who will finish and when:

Boat                            Toliva Shoal                            Finish

Riptide                        1320hrs                                   2330hrs

J-133                           1340hrs                                   2340hrs

J-120                           1353hrs                                   0313hrs Sunday

J-35                             1511hrs                                   0420hrs Sunday

White Squall               1600hrs                                   0530hrs Sunday

One forecast that is always 100% accurate is that the hospitality at OYC before and after the race will, as always, be exceptional. After the race, while the wind may be light on the race course, there will be plenty of hot air inside the clubhouse. 😊

For the delivery home on Sunday, the breeze will once again be from the south at 5-10 from 0700hrs and slowly build from that direction all day. By Sunday afternoon expect 15-20 knots from the south.

Over the weekend, the strongest breeze will be in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands.

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.

Symes Wins ILCA (Laser) Legends Worlds, Clark Wins Grand Masters

Symes Wins ILCA (Laser) Legends Worlds, Clark Wins Grand Masters
Bill Symes

As if PNW dinghy sailors didn’t know it already, Portland’s Bill Symes is a Laser sailing legend. And he just won the Legends class at the ILCA Master Worlds in Thailand.

For those of you unfamiliar with the ILCA Masters Worlds, it is a truly amazing gathering of older sailors still fit and ambitious enough to sail the seminal singlehander at the highest level. The age groups are Apprentice Master (35-44), Master (45-54), Grand Master (55-64), Great Grand Master (65-74) and, you guessed it, Legends (75+). And while the older sailors may not have the physical tools they once had, there’s an amazing amount of fitness on display and they are no less competitive than 18 year olds. They may, however, be a little nicer to each other on and off the water.

A start

This impressive annual gathering happens at carefully chosen locales around the world, with an eye toward keeping the ILCA (Laser) active worldwide. The locations are also chosen for good sailing conditions.

Results. Event web site.

Bill Symes has been at the top of the masters classes for decades. Last year he missed on a Legends win with a black flag in the first race on the last day.

Symes wasn’t the only PNW winner. Al Clark of Vancouver BC won the Grand Master title. Like Symes, Clark had his worst race in the first race on the last day, but managed to hold on to a two point lead for the series win.

I’d like to make a few observations. In the modern sailing culture of faster, faster, faster, anything less than foiling seems ho hum. I doubt any of the foiling folks had any more fun, or experienced any more intensity, than these masters going at the more sedate Laser pace. While there’s nothing wrong with pushing the envelope and foiling, the fun to be had on inexpensive dinghies should not be dismissed. Also, one might think that there would be only a handful of “old folks” with the fitness and will to do a 6-day Laser regatta. The Legends class had 20 participants, the Great Grand Master class had 32. Those are great racing fleets. Finally, half the Apprentice class, including the winner, were women.

I’m glad I kept my old Laser – er – ILCA.

2023 ILCA 6 Masters World Championship, RVYC / © Matias Capizzano