The irrepressible Bruce not only gave the South Straits racers their own forecast, he’s clueing the rest of us in as well.
For an Easter weekend, not all bad. The Straits guys and gals got off this morning in light conditions however the wind is building as they head towards the Ballenas mark. Currently, they have about 15 from the west at Halibut Bank. Unfortunately, it will probably drop from here on.
Click to enlarge images.
March 30 Surface Analysis
March 31 500MB
March 31 Surface Forecast Chart
April 1 Surface Forecast Chart
April 3 Surface Forecast Chart
March 30 Satellite Image
The current chart shows a cold front that is moving to the SE across the area today. Post frontal activity will create a brief period of onshore flow today which will create small craft warnings in the Straits of Juan de Fuca late this afternoon and into the evening. Expect a light northerly late tonight or early Saturday due to that a 1044MB High that is situated over eastern BC and Alberta. This will dissipate and the flow will become onshore again Saturday afternoon with small craft warnings again being posted for the Straits and the northern part of Admiralty Inlet. You can expect the onshore flow to strengthen Sunday before weakening on Monday.
The satellite picture shows some clouds but not much in the way of rain so it really looks like a pretty nice weekend. So get out and get the boat ready for some nice springtime sailing. Also, don’t forget about the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race next weekend. Great event for a great cause and we’ll have an in-depth forecast for you next Friday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As you can see from the charts, we are between a series of relatively weak weather systems. Today we have a weak warm front stalled along the US/Canadian border. A weak cold front will shift inland on Friday. The models are NOT in agreement about how fast or when this will move in. Weak high-pressure (1027MB) off the Oregon and Washington Coast will maintain a weak onshore flow this weekend. In the satellite picture you’ll see some weak cloud structure but very little to define any weather systems.
Click to enlarge images.
March 29 Surface Analysis
March 30 500MB
March 30 Surface Forecast
March 31 Surface Forecast
April 2 Surface Forecast Chart
The UW model is perhaps the most optimistic forecasting winds of 15 knots from the west for the start and then building into the 15-20 knot range from the NW as you work your way towards Ballenas. This should start to ease as the gradient weakens over the area by about mid-afternoon.
This will continue to ease through the evening dropping to around 10 knots from the West by mid evening 2100 hrs. Around midnight there will be patches of breeze with another blast of NW 15 filling down the Straits until about 0300 Saturday when it will start to die off.
After 0300 a conflict will develop between the remnants of the low to NE of the race area and the onshore flow bringing light air to the mainland side of the course and spotty NW breeze to the Vancouver Island side of the course. Expect drainage winds out of Howe Sound and spotty breeze over the Straits.
Running the polars for the TP-52’s, I have them around the course in 36 hours.
Sorry about that.
One of the keys to the race will be how and when this weak frontal system passes over the race course. The best way is to chart the barometric pressure readings as provided by Environment Canada on the VHF Wx . Note particularly Halibut Bank, Sentry Shoal, South Brooks, La Perouse Bank, and Buoy JA at the mouth of the Straits of JdF. When the pressure finally bottoms out and starts to rise that will signal the onshore flow starting to build.
When the pressure quits building, start looking for the windseeker.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
All in all, it looks like a pretty nice stretch of great weather coming up. Even though the charts don’t really show much, it does suggest that with that area of weak high-pressure centered off of San Francisco and weak low-pressure inland, there will be some onshore flow over this evening, strengthening tomorrow afternoon. This will then weaken late Saturday and into Sunday. What is really interesting is the Tuesday chart which shows a well-developed low-pressure system poised to sweep into California. Sure they can always use the rain but maybe not so much so quickly.
March 16 Surface Analysis
March 17 Surface Forecast
March 18 Surface Forecast
March 20 Surface Forecast
What does this mean for the GHYC Islands Race? It should be, as always, a pretty great event. Even if there’s no wind it’s always a pretty great time down there. That yacht club does know how to do it right. This year with a weak onshore flow coming in through the Chehalis Gap it’s liable to be a bit of a light southerly for the start. As the morning goes on and the onshore flow builds this should result in a 5-10 knot southwesterly over most of the central and south Sound for most of the rest of the day. With a constant ebb tide in Colvos, you’ll have flat water plus with abundant sunshine it should be pretty pleasant. Don’t forget the sunblock.
For tactics it will be pretty straight forward. After the start, find a clear lane to the strongest current going north in Colvos. Once you find the axis of the current, keep your air clear and gybe aggressively to stay in the current and clear air. Once you round the top mark it will be better to stay to the west in Colvos as the wind will stay out of the SW which will mean the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack. The starboard tacks will be long tacks so when you put the jib up, have it in the port groove of the headstay. The other fact about upwind in a SW in Colvos, is that puffs roll off the hill and down to the water and then flatten out. This means you don’t want to get too close to the beach (lighter air) and your drivers and trimmers are going to be working very hard sailing south. Hard work will be rewarded. Also, don’t underestimate how far bad air can effect you as you go upwind in 6-10 knots. As a rough rule of thumb figure 15-20 times mast height of the boat in front of you is how far back it will slow you down.
While on Saturday it could be cranking in the Straits from the west, Sunday looks very light over the entire Northwest.
Have a great weekend and Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The good news? Break out the sunblock and put away the woolies! The bad news? Let’s hope the RC sets an alternative course as it is going to be light. All the models are somewhat in agreement on that with some even showing up to six knots of wind from the due north at the start. Most, however, show less than five knots. I currently have Crossfire around the course in just over six hours, the J-35 around in just over nine hours. Remember that in four knots of wind Crossfire can sail at six knots and the rest of us are not nearly that fast. The other problem will be that the boats with tallest masts will greatly benefit as there will be more wind above 45-50 feet off the water.
Kissing the Scatchet Head mark. Remember the current.
The surface analysis for today shows yesterdays front over eastern Washington with another front poised menacingly off the coast. The problem is that front is moving almost due north and is not headed towards us. This will cause the onshore flow to ease through midday. By this afternoon, high pressure(1010MB to the north and 1017MB off the coast) will join forces and move to the east which will spread the gradient and drop the breeze. High pressure will move east of the Cascades over the weekend giving increasing offshore flow, beautiful weather and the highest temperatures so far this year. Don’t get too worried that this is the start of our summer heat wave, a cold front will move into the coastal waters on Tuesday bringing us cooler temps, mountain snow, and valley rain. Even though it’s about a month early I think we’ve had our last freezing temp the Seattle area. I base this on the fact that while we are still north of the jet stream, it is moving inexorably northward as the days get longer and the air in the northern hemisphere warms. The air flowing into the NW is also coming from the SW and is no longer coming out of the Canadian interior.
Tides at West Point
0718 Flood .4 knots
1054 Slack
1236 Ebb .21 knots
1512 Slack
2036 Flood .78 knots
Tidal Current Foulweather Bluff
1048 Slack
1448 Ebb 1.78 knots
1906 Slack
Tides won’t be much of an issue unless you really can get up to Scatchet Head by noon as at that time there will still be about a knot of tide running to the west at the buoy. In this weather pattern, the northerly wind will lighten significantly and the velocity of the current will increase as you approach the mark. Plan accordingly.
March 9 Surface Analysis
March 10 500MB
March 10 Surface Forecast
March 11 Surface Forecast
March 13 500MB
March 13 Surface Forecast
The worst part of this is that there may be enough wind to start and get you up to at Kingston. After that, the breeze will continue to ease off and die in the center of the Sound. Classic Puget Sound sucker punch. Then as it dies off, watch for the Swihart effect to kick in. This is where that in the absence of a pressure gradient over the Salish Sea, the flood tide will bring a northerly down the Sound. Watch for more northerly in the very late afternoon and becoming around 10 knots by early evening. Well after dark and long after scurvy has started to set in on the crew.
Haven’t been much help on where to go in this race because of the lack of wind. There are still some general principles. With ebb tide and light air, get to the west side of the Sound. What breeze there is will be there. On the trip home, the northerly will build on the west side first and the flood will start down the west shore first.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s the first week of March so it must be time for CYC’s Center Sound Series, one of our favorites. True, it’s not like the days of having 500 boats out there but with around 80 there will still be some great racing. Earlier this week it was looking a bit grim as in Crossfire taking 12 hours to complete the course. As they do in the Pacific Northwest, things change. Now it appears things might not be so bad. Some forecasts are calling for 15-18 from the NNW while others are saying 5-10 from the NNW. We’ll just see who shows up.
One thing we do know is that the tides will for sure be in play however even they won’t be too bad. There will be varying amounts of ebb from 0630 until slack at noon. I’ve included a chart to explain this oddity.
Odd Ebbs
Tidal Current at West Point
0630 Ebb .32 knts
0912 Ebb .10 knts
1054 Ebb .15 knts
1206 Slack
1448 Flood .93 knts
1718 Slack
1900 Ebb .46 the knts
Looking at the charts, you’ll see a 996 MB low off the Oregon coast which will remain nearly stationary as it slowly weakens becoming a 1006MB by tomorrow morning. This low will dissipate late Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure (1040MB) over British Columbia will drift slowly SSE resulting in weak offshore flow over the area through Saturday. This flow will become nearly flat on Sunday. How fast this moves our way will determine just how much wind we’ll have over the course. The best way to check this is to note barometric pressure at Bellingham(currently 1006.7), Portland(1006.6), and Astoria (1004.4). Then check the gradient tomorrow morning on VHF when you get to the boat and see how much this has changed. Generally speaking, if you take the difference in MB’s and between Bellingham and Portland and multiply times 5 that will give you the windspeed in knots. This is more accurate when the pressure is higher in the south. When it’s higher in the north it is less so.
March 2 500MB
March 2 Surface Analysis
March 3 500MB
March 3 Surface Forecast
March 4 500MB
March 4 Surface Forecast
March 6 Surface Forecast
Assuming it’s a northerly, the key to success tomorrow will be getting a clean start off the line and then watch your COG and SOG to make sure you are in the strongest ebb. You’ll hold starboard off the line staying in clear air, there should be slightly more wind in the center Sound. You’ll want to tack when you can lay the mark however you may want to tack early as there may be a lift on port as you work up the Sound. Tacking early will also give you time once you tack back to starboard to get the pole and gear setup which ideally you would have done at the dock. It should be a starboard tack set.
You’ll want to hold the starboard tack on the run. As you get over near the Bainbridge shore you’ll watch the true wind speed, when it starts to drop, that’s the time to gybe. You are better off to come into the Rock on starboard, just know where all the rocks are! You’ll have to do the drop and gybe immediately, then get set-up to drop the daffodils for Kelly.
On the beat back to West Point, it will be hold port tack from the Rock to Four Mile Rock under Magnolia. The flood may have started however there may still be some ebb along the shore from Four Mile to West Point, just don’t get into too close. At least in the flood, you shouldn’t be on for long.
From West Point to the finish, you’ll want to hold starboard off of West Point until you can tack and make the entrance buoys. Really pay attention to where the finish line is and don’t tack too many times but really maintain a clear air lane to the finish.
Good luck, be safe and have a great time.
Ed. Note: Thanks again, Bruce, for the insights. There are going to be some interesting tales to tell, from this, and all the other, Center Sound races. I’ll be looking for details from every part of the fleet – if you send me your insights I’ll work them into the race wrap. I’ll also be looking for video to include on the Wet Wednesday post. I’m not looking for the crew to drop the halyard to get some footage, but if you have some video, share it with me and I’ll share it with the sailish.com readers (even those not on Facebook….) Have a great time tomorrow!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s pretty strange to be looking out the window watching the snow come down for the second day this week. Speaking of seconds, how about breeze in the south Sound for the second weekend in a row. Then for our friends in the Straits and San Juan Islands BIG breeze (25-30 knots) Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. The Girts Rekevics Foul Weather Regatta will certainly live up to its name! The Jim Depue Race and those heading out from Elliott Bay and Shilshole to practice for Blakely Rock will have some wind in the morning, however, as mid-day approaches, a convergence zone will be setting up over the Center Sound making conditions a bit light and flukey. At least it will be wet AND cold, all at no extra charge.
February 23 Surface Analysis
Feb 24 500MB
February 24 Surface Forecast
February 26 Surface Chart
February 27 Surface Forecast
February 27 500MB
The aurface charts have a number of interesting features. We have a front over Western Washington this afternoon which will move east of the Cascades this evening, followed by a strong post-frontal westerly flow tonight and into Saturday. Then a stronger front will move over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and Sunday with gales possible for the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca. A very weak high-pressure system will try to set up on Monday only to be blown out by another front on Tuesday. Welcome to late winter weather in the Pacific Northwest.
Perhaps the most interesting feature on these charts is the very summer-like high-pressure system that was snuggled up to the coast of California last weekend. It has gotten slightly stronger (1040 to 1042MB) and rounder both of which means that it’s probably not going to be easily moved from its current position. Combined with a relatively straight-line jet stream will continue to push storm systems over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest.
As you should anytime you go boating around here, prepare for the worst and really watch conditions. Remember the definition of heavy weather: It’s anytime you and your crew are not comfortable with the conditions. Don’t take unnecessary chances and don’t put yourself, your crew or your boat in dangerous situations.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Oh boy, you better sit down and get out the AED because you almost never see these three words in the same sentence: Toliva Shoal and Breezy! The models all seem to agree, we are gonna have some wind this weekend with the slight possibility of snow late Saturday and early Sunday, so if you’re going on the race you had better prepare accordingly. This includes a potential wind chill of 15-20°F which is no joke.
As you can see from the surface charts we have a relatively weak low-pressure system with an attached frontal system working over us today to be followed by a much stronger system tomorrow. The front associated with tomorrow’s system will pass through near dawn leaving us with a strong post-frontal, onshore flow. This will mean strong SW breeze over the south and central Sound with steady winds of 20-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots and this will hold for most of Saturday, even over the Toliva Shoal Race Course.
The other good news is that we’ll have favorable tides with the ebb starting just before the race starts. In this run, reach, run scenario you will probably make it to the Toliva mark fairly early which means you’ll need to be thinking ahead and be constantly planning for that next leg, especially the leg from Johnson Pt to Buoy #3 at the Flats. This will be a shifty reach where you’ll really want to have the barber-hauler rigged on the port side before you leave the dock because once you’re racing you’ll be too busy to rig it. There will also be plenty of rain which will knock visibility down so be sure to have the compass courses posted for each leg.
February 16 Surface Analysis
February 17 500MB
February 17 Surface Forecast Chart
February 18 500MB
February 18 Surface Analysis
February 20 500MB
February 20 Surface Forecast Chart
It will almost certainly be a hard beat from Toliva Shoal back to the finish. It tends to be lighter going through Balch Passage however if the breeze is on I would be tempted to stay with the #4 or your small jib rather than trying to do multiple headsail changes. Just power up the main. The crew will also like short tacking in there with the smaller headsail. You’ll want to work the Devils Head side of Drayton Passage to stay in flatter water then hold starboard tack all the way across to the flatter water below Johnson Point. From there to Boston Harbor it will be stay on the favored tack and HIKE, HIKE, HIKE! Once you get into Budd Inlet, you’ll want to favor the west side for flatter water and the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack.
This will be a good one just make sure the jacklines are run and everyone is wearing life jackets and harnessed up before you leave the dock.
And then there’s Sunday! By early Sunday morning, the breeze will swing around to the north-northeast and blow just as hard from that direction. Probably 25-35 knots in the north and central Sound, and the eastern end of the Straits, and 15-25 knots in the South Sound. This will also be bringing that very cold air down from the BC interior. Maybe wait until next weekend to do that delivery from Olympia to points north.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Put a mark on your calendar, as of today we are BEHIND in the amount of rainfall we would normally have on this date for the month! We are however still 2.3” ahead for the year. The good news is that we should have a pretty nice weekend, the only downside is that it will be chilly.
As you can see from the charts we’ll have an offshore flow developing from the high pressure (1042mb) that is building over the interior of British Columbia. This will bring cold air out of the Canadian interior and certainly into the northern part of the Salish Sea. This flow will ease on Saturday. Being the first day the ridge is established we’ll have a nice northerly in the Sound overnight and then ease as the day goes on. We’ll have a weak front move through the area Sunday with the offshore flow returning for a brief visit Monday then switching back to an onshore flow on Tuesday.
February 9 Surface Analysis
February 10 500MB
February 10 Surface Forecast
February 11 Surface Forecast
February 13 500MB
February 13 Surface Forecast
For those of you leaving town on Thursday to do the Islands Race next weekend, (Long Beach Start, Catalina and San Clemente to port, finish in San Diego) I would pay particular attention to the 500MB chart and that 549MB upper level low centered over your race course and watch how that moves as you get closer to the start of racing.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Bruce loves manning the NMTA booth at the Seattle Boat Show almost as much as he enjoys prognosticating the weather!
Bruce’s Brief’s Bell Harbor Boat Show Forecast: Friday 2 Feb –Sunday 4 Feb.
It’s actually been a pretty nice week except that we are, once again, ahead of rainfall for the year, already! Not much will change to slow that until Tuesday.
For the rest of the day, today expect SW breeze of 15-18 knots as another weak cold or occluded front offshore will move across the area today for strengthening onshore or westerly flow. This will create gale force westerly winds over parts of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and evening. We can expect another weak frontal system to move across the area on Saturday, followed by another one late Saturday night or Sunday morning. This will make out on Sunday from Bell Harbor interesting as we can expect 15-25 knots of SW from 0900 on Sunday until about 1800 that evening. After that, it will ease to 10-15 knots of southerly. Expect the strongest breeze to be 25+ knots from 1100 until about 1700. Basically, a perfect reason to delay move-out until Monday and watch the Super Bowl!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
What a week we’ve had and what a weekend it will be. The folks that were able to get space at the Century Link Field Events Center are going to be so glad because it is going to be wet for the next five days followed by some drying and cooler weather towards the end of next week. As of today, we’ve had almost six inches of rain so far this year, exactly the same amount we had a year ago and almost 1.3” ahead of “normal.”
As you can see from the surface charts we’ve got a series of storm systems coming right at us and a jet stream that will keep them aimed right into the Pacific Northwest. This will mean plenty of wind over the Sound today but easing this afternoon. As tomorrow comes around expect very stormy conditions along the coast, in the eastern Straits and the San Juan Islands. We’ll have some wind over the Center and South Sound but easing in the afternoon. Late Sunday another system will come onshore bringing more rain and some wind.
Jan 26 Surface Analysis
Jan 27 500MB
January 27 Surface Forecast
Jan 28 500MB
Jan 28 Surface Forecast Chart
Jan 30 500MB
Jan 30 Surface Forecast Chart
If you’re working at the In-The-Water Shows be sure to check the mooring lines and fenders and run the extra lines. As we learned a couple of years ago make sure that the fenders aren’t blocking the exhaust port for the onboard furnace and that the boat can’t shift to a point where that port is blocked.
I’ll be working at the Boat Show Information Booth between the East and West Halls tonight, Saturday night and Sunday morning. During the week I’ll be there Monday night, Tuesday morning, and Friday night. So if you’re going to be at the Show around those times please come by and say hello!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
