Weather

Bruce’s Brief: Pacific Northwest Marine Weather Weekend for February 25-26

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Bruce’s Brief: Pacific Northwest Marine Weather Weekend for February 25-26

Another absolutely stellar week of weather in the Pacific NW just passed with more rain, snow, lightning and possible funnel clouds. If you were watching the Doppler radar, it was one of the more interesting weeks. It is however not that unusual for this time of the year and if you can say one thing about the weather, it is that spring is definitely on its way, maybe a little early but after all this rain I think we can all agree that we deserve a little break. Besides, if you’re racing in CYC’s Center Sound Series it’s a great time to go out for a little practice session before the Blakely Rock Race kicks off what is probably the most popular medium distance racing in the Pacific Northwest next weekend.

500MB Charts:

The Climate Prediction Center came out with their latest and it looks like we are still in for cooler and wetter than “normal” weather for March and April. The good news is that in this pattern it usually means a warmer than normal summer. Like go out and buy air conditioning for the house warmer? Probably not that much warmer. The other side of that is we will also still continue to build snowpack in the mountains which will help reduce the fire hazard going through the summer. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for that!

Surface Charts:

This weekend doesn’t look great for sailing however it will be pretty nice just to be on the water. Plus, with 5-8 knots of wind, that’s the perfect amount of wind to get the crew reacquainted with racing before next weekend. The only significant breeze (15+ from the south) in the Sound will be over Saturday night and into Sunday morning. If you’re anchoring out, make sure you’ve got plenty of scope out and your swing radius will clear the other boats in the anchorage.

The most interesting feature on the surface charts for this weekend is that 1039 MB high-pressure system off our coast today which will deepen and strengthen over the weekend to 1045 MB on Saturday. This will move away from the coast on Sunday allowing a weak, 1008 MB low-pressure system to invade the Pacific Northwest late Sunday and into early Monday. To give you a better idea of just how strong this high-pressure system is, just check out the 500 MB charts. What you see is the classic springtime pattern of the northern hemisphere starting to heat up because of longer days and that helps to strengthen the Pacific High. As it builds it becomes more capable of deflecting low-pressure systems to the north of the Pacific Northwest. Just don’t get too excited because as you look at the last day of the month you’ll see another significant low-pressure system coming right out of the Gulf of Alaska and aiming right at us at it weakens that high-pressure and pushes it to the south.

Needless to say, we’ll have an in-depth look at the weather for next weekend specifically for the Blakely Rock Race. Remember to pick up some daffodils to leave at Blakely Rock in honor of the beloved Kelly O’Neil Henson as you go around next Saturday.

Be safe and enjoy the weekend!

 

 

Bruce’s Weather Brief for February 18-19 and Toliva Shoal Race!

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Have we had enough rain yet? Apparently not as we are currently sitting at the 6th wettest February ever and there’s a ways to go before the end of the month. All we need is about 2 more inches of rain to be the wettest and that could happen this coming week.

As you can see from the current surface chart there’s not much happening over the Pacific Northwest however California is going to take another major hit this weekend. We will feel some of the residual from that system starting on Saturday afternoon and some moisture will make it up to the Sound. It still won’t bring much wind with it. Unfortunately, the models are pretty much in agreement that it’s going to be light most of the day on Saturday. The problem will be that the wind offshore with be northerly with no gradient over the Sound. As the day goes on, the wind offshore will become more westerly, still light as in 10 knots or less. And then there will be some flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. As the wind offshore backs around to the southwest that will bring more of a southerly component to the wind over the south Sound, still probably 10 knots or less.

The good news is that the tide will be with the Toliva Shoal Race fleet and there are plenty of options for the race committee to shorten the course at any number of marks along the way. Besides, the gracious hospitality back in Olympia is not to be missed especially after the race.

Tides for Dana Passage:    

Saturday:

0500      Slack

0712      Flood     1.14 knots

1030      Slack

1342      Ebb          1.96 knots

1800      Slack

2024      Flood     1.25 knots

As usual, getting out of Budd Inlet will be challenging. The key will be to be near the starting line, and not be swept over with the ebb which will probably start early because of all the runoff from this week’s rain. Then find a lane of clear air and aim down the course trying to find the axis of the current while staying in the puff. If it’s 0 gusting to ½ knot don’t let too many people accumulate in the stern which increases the wetted surface area and slows the boat down. You’ll also want to be rigged for reaching with barber haulers and flying the drifter or wind seeker. Trimmers will definitely earn their keep tomorrow.

From Boston Harbor to Itsami Ledge don’t get too close to the south side of Dana Passage. The southerly breeze or what there is of it, will be coming over the land and not touch down on the water until ¼ to ½ way off the beach. Watch the smart people in front of you in the classes that started ahead and track who goes where and how they’re doing. Not always easy but worthwhile if you can make it work.

There will be a lot of water coming out of the Nisqually Flats and that can sometimes create a current that flows to the northwest from Lyle Point to Treble Point on Anderson Island so watch your COG and SOG after Buoy “3” and before your turn to go north to Toliva Shoal. You will also be able to see this current as it will be distinctly brown, muddy water on top of the saltwater of the Sound. Also track which way the eddies are spinning on tide lines to make sure you are on the fast side.

As you can see from the Sunday surface chart another front is headed our way and that will per usual manifest itself as a southeasterly in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern end of the Straits gradually working its way back down the Sound by mid Sunday afternoon. If you’re cruising up north this weekend, thinking about being in the Straits, track the wind reports before you head out as it could be cranking on Sunday.

By next Tuesday we will have a lot more rain as two frontal systems line up and take aim at us. Could also get a bit breezy. Looking at the 500MB Charts you can see why we’re going to be watching that 950 MB low in mid-Pacific. That is a significant storm that could impact our region by next weekend.

Have a great weekend and be safe out there.

Bruce’s Weather Brief February 11-12 Winds at 45 Knots for Now

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Bruce’s Weather Brief February 11-12 Winds at 45 Knots for Now

It was yet another impressive week of weather for the Pacific Northwest. Snow in the lowlands, and lots of snow in the mountains and in Whatcom County. We totally more than made up our rainfall deficient for the year. Having gone from 1.5 inches behind a week ago to almost 3 inches ahead today.

Then today we have 45 knots of southerly at West Point and that will last through the day and into the early evening before it starts to back off. As you can see from today’s surface chart we’ve got a moderate high pressure system off the coast (1024MB) with a dissipating low pressure system that has the isobars bunched over the Puget Sound hence the gale warnings for our waters. By tomorrow however that high pressure system will strengthen and move in over the Pacific Northwest giving us a brief respite from this never ending stream of wet frontal systems.

The weekend actually looks pretty good for sailing on Saturday, and great for power boating on Sunday with sunblock advisable for both days. Yes, SUNBLOCK! Actually, you should never leave the house without sunblock if you’re going on the water. Saturday you can expect 10-12 from the south in the morning for most of the central and south Sound with slightly more north of Pt. No Point and into the eastern Straits. As the days wears on you can expect the southerly to slowly back off in the central and south Sound with it becoming about 5 knots by late afternoon.

As you can see from the Sunday Surface Chart we will definitely be under a high pressure system with little wind in the Pacific Northwest, plenty of sun but not much breeze.

The really interesting chart is Valentine’s Day which is showing a pair of significant low pressure systems. The one(966MB) up in the Gulf of Alaska has a front that extends from 60N, 145W to 20N, 150E. WOW! The deeper low (960MB) off the north end of Vancouver Island doesn’t have a long front however both of these will be impacting our weather from Wednesday on into the next weekend. Keep an eye on this and if you have to do the delivery to Olympia for the Toliva Shoal Race, why not go this weekend? Just a thought.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Brief: Puget Sound Weekend Weather February 4-5

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Bruce’s Brief: Puget Sound Weekend Weather February 4-5

Technically, we are now entering the wettest time of the winter with temperatures expected to be slightly below normal. Overall this means more snow in the mountains with some very brief periods of lowland snow, don’t expect any major lowland snow events. As far as precip goes we are about 1.5 inches behind for the year however we could easily make that up over the next five days.

What about this weekend? Luckily for boaters if you haven’t been to the Seattle Boat Show, you’ll have another chance Saturday (the last day), then on Sunday you may already have plans as is some football game. (Ed. Note, this supposed game on Sunday loses a lot of its luster without the Seahawks. Oh to have another shot at those Patriots.) Otherwise, you can expect occasional rain with occasional wind. No big blows for the inland waters at least for the next couple of days but then on Thursday Feb 9th it looks like another strong front will impact the coast and the San Juan Islands. We’ll be watching that.

The Sunday 5 Feb 500MB chart shows an interesting feature with the upper air coming out of the chilly Canadian interior and colliding with the jet stream (the 564 line) off the California coast before it is pushed to the east. This is a very wet scenario.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce’s Brief, Weekend Weather for January 27-28

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Bruce’s Brief, Weekend Weather for January 27-28

This time of the year certainly doesn’t disappoint. The weather here and around the country has been very interesting and shows little or no sign of becoming normal. The Great Lakes aren’t frozen over, the east shores of the Lakes are still getting lots of lake effect snow, the exceptional drought in the Southeast and California is all but gone and in the Pacific Northwest we are getting the effects of a “traditional” La Niña, if there is such a thing.

The surface charts for the weekend and into next week especially the one for tomorrow morning show an almost ear drum popping feature with a 1050MB High located over the Great Basin in the Western US. For perspective, the highest pressure ever recorded was a 1083.8MB in 1968 in Agata, Siberia. A fact made more interesting in that this was measured at 826 feet above sea level. This measurement was also made at the height of the Cold War so independent, third party verification was out of the question. I digress, anyway with that high pressure located where it is you can see why they have high wind warnings (70 knots with gusts to 80) up for Santa Ana winds thru the passes to the East of Southern California. That’s high enough that if taken on the beam of an 18 wheeler, it can be blown over, impressive. You can also see that this feature, while not moving very much will weaken as another low pressure system moves slowly towards the West Coast by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. What is interesting is that the interaction between these systems has the effect of weakening both which is good from any number of perspectives. You can also see from the 500MB charts that this isn’t going to change very much over the next few days. It will keep the relatively warm air coming into the PacNW while keeping the very cold Canadian air on the other side of the Cascades.

Over the weekend in the Pacific Northwest we’ll see this play out in what is becoming common for this winter. We’ll have fairly strong east-southeasterly wind off the coast (Small Craft Advisory) with some breeze showing up in the north Sound, east end of the Straits and up into the San Juan Islands. For the mid and south Sound light and variable winds until the next system gets closer on Tuesday or Wednesday. In between you can see another weather rule for the Pacific Northwest play through and that is that the best chance for a strong northerly is the first day the ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the area. Overall, it will be a pretty nice weekend in the Pacific Northwest. In fact, just about a perfect weekend for the Seattle Boat Show.

So, in the meanwhile, go to the BIG Seattle Boat Show! I did a quick walk thru yesterday and there is plenty of new, really cool stuff to see regardless of what kind of boater you are. As I said, I’ll be working at the show in the NMTA information booth Saturday and Sunday so please stop by and say hello. Also, I got some very good questions this week regarding potential trends in the upcoming weather. Thank you and I’m happy to answer those for you.

Enjoy the weekend.

Bruce’s Brief, Weekend Weather January 21-22. Occasional Wind, Rain

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Bruce’s Brief, Weekend Weather January 21-22. Occasional Wind, Rain

It’s one of the great things about the weather in the Pacific Northwest, it’s never boring. As you can see from today’s surface chart there’s a pretty good sized 975MB low pressure system off the coast that is going to slightly weaken, as in go to about 980MB, and then not move very much at least through Tuesday. Then we’ll have three merging low pressure systems right off of our coast, all the while sending frontal systems ashore from mid-Baja to SE Alaska. You can say the California has needed the rain and the snow but you’d really like to spread it out over a longer time span. I don’t know what boaters in Marina del Rey are going to do since the latest pictures show boats moored in an endless sea of plastic bags that have washed into the marina. It going to be almost impossible to avoid sucking those into the raw water intakes. YUK!

So what does this mean for us? Pretty simple, occasional rain with occasional wind. Today we’ll have strong winds, gale warnings offshore, which will back off and then by tomorrow about mid afternoon you can expect building breeze offshore and the eastern end of the Straits of Juan de Fuca from Pt Townsend to the northern end of the San Juan Islands. By Sunday morning a stronger system will approach the coast bringing a strong east southeasterly breeze to the Straits and coastal waters.

While we probably won’t see more than about 15 knots of east southeasterly breeze in the central and south Sound if you’re headed out on the water be sure to check conditions on a regular basis.

As you can see from the upper air (500MB) charts, it’s probably not going to change very much. California is just going to keep getting fire-hosed for the foreseeable future.

What’s the good news? The Seattle Boat Show opens a week from today! I’ll be working for the NMTA (Northwest Marine Trade Association) at the Boat Show Information Booth on Saturday and Sunday of the opening weekend so please stop by and say hello.

Have a great weekend!

Bruce’s Brief, January 7&8, Special for Duwamish Head

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Bruce’s Brief, January 7&8, Special for Duwamish Head

Happy New Year and let’s all resolve to use our boats more this year!

Not sure what the wind gods have against TTPYC and their Duwamish Head Race but it looks like this could be yet another frustrating day on the water. The key word for tomorrow is patience. There will be wind but not until later which will keep boats on the course well into the Seahawks game. There will also be light spots on the course particularly as you get towards the Des Moines side as you approach the finish after between 1500 and 1800 hrs. Generally speaking, the east side of the Sound north of Three Tree Point (TTP) will tend to be lighter because of the high hills above the water. Stay off the beach but watch your COG and SOG.

The tides shouldn’t be a huge factor unless it gets to 0 gusting to a ½ knot after about 1500 hrs. See below.

Tides at Alki Point

0706      Slack

0900      Flood     .23

1100      Slack

1600      Ebb          .76

2012      Slack

As you can see from surface charts we have a couple of weak low pressure systems trying to push their way onshore and move that persistent (and cold) 1039 MB high pressure system off to the east-southeast. Unfortunately, that high is still strong enough to keep these fronts at bay and by slowing their approach and weakening them as they get closer to the coast. There will be plenty of breeze in the coastal waters and strong pre-frontal south easterlies in the east and central Straits of JdF on Saturday and into Sunday however it will only show up in fits and starts in the central to south Sound.

As far as tactics go for the race, this will be a classic Puget Sound sucker punch with plenty of SE (8-10 kts) wind for the start and getting to TTP after which the breeze will start to drop with the Sound glassing off around Alki after about 1130. That’s when you’ll start to get puffs of breeze still from the SE. It will be very much like last year with breeze to Alki and then very puffy and light to get into the mark at Alki.

From Duwamish to Blakely Rock, if you can get around BR before sunset and get aimed back to the finish you stand a pretty good chance of finishing. Otherwise it’s going to very light behind BR. By 2000 hrs there will be fairly steady (8-10 kts) southeasterly over the entire course. Then it’s just a matter of making the time limit which is 13 hours after your start.

Oh, and it will be cold with a slight chance of snow mixed with rain. Stay warm and stay hydrated. Good luck!

Bruce’s Brief: Weather Weekend of 24-25 December

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First of all, Season’s Greetings to all of you and thank you for taking the time to, I hope, enjoy my musings about our most interesting weather.

I think most of us will be enjoying the weekend with friends and family as well as watching a lot of football (Go Hawks!!) even though it will be a relatively benign weekend on the water. Today is the day for wind and if you’re heading out to enjoy a long weekend on the water, head south in the northerly and then on Tuesday you can sail north in the southerly. The rest of the weekend we will be between fronts.

As you can see from the current surface chart and the Langley Hill radar at 1300 hours it’s going to remain wet for a while. However, after the front passes the winds will back off and we may even get a light dusting of snow in the lowlands. It won’t last until the 25th as the freezing level will head back up to the passes by Saturday afternoon.

The picture for the 27th shows another front over us and the isobars tightly bunched which will mean some wind with the rain. All in all, very typical!

Be safe, enjoy the holiday and let’s all decide we’re going to spend more time on the water in 2017 enjoying our amazing Salish Sea.

Ed. Note: And best holiday wishes to Bruce, Kerin, their families and their rather large circles of friends. Peace to all. –KMH

Bruce’s Weather Brief, Chilly with a Good Chance of Open Anchorages

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Bruce’s Weather Brief, Chilly with a Good Chance of Open Anchorages

It may be cold but at least there’s very little white stuff forecast for the Salish Sea. The mountains will get more and California will even get some much needed moisture in the form of both rain and snow.

As you can see from the current surface chart our weather is currently being dominated by two significant high pressure systems. The first is a 1034 MB high situated over southern BC and the second is a very summer-like 1036 MB high located in the Pacific off of the mouth of the Columbia River. Our current cold weather comes from the former with very cold air coming down out of the Fraser River valley. As is typical of this time of the year, yet another huge low pressure system will come out of the Bering Sea and push these aside. See the 18 Dec Surface chart. Yep, that’s a 940 MB low with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians to SE Alaska and then back to almost the Philippines. That is a major system and it will be visiting us about the 20th of December.

What does this mean for weekend boating? It will be cold however the breeze will drop off after today and in the central to south Sound conditions will be 5-15 from the south, a little stronger in the northern Salish Sea. If you’re a total curmudgeon and don’t have anything to do around the house in advance of the big holiday, you’ll find most of the anchorages pretty empty. So go out and enjoy yourself just be aware that hypothermia can be a real threat this weekend and if you fall into the water and can’t get out, you are pretty much dead. So please be careful.

Have a great weekend.

Bruce’s Weather Brief December 10-11, The Snow Cometh, the Snow Leaveth

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Bruce’s Weather Brief December 10-11, The Snow Cometh, the Snow Leaveth

It’s pretty cool to be sitting at the computer looking out on a very wintry landscape complete with snow. It’s not going to last of course but it was probably just the right amount of snow for just about the right amount of time.

As you can see from the surface charts we’ve got another low pressure area off the coast with another front that will be coming through this afternoon bringing warmer temps and more rain. The lows off of our coast are fairly weak and north of the jet stream, see the 564 line on the 500MB charts. I mention this because the Tuesday 500MB chart shows the possibility of more cold air coming our way from the interior of Canada.

Why Winterize?

Have you gotten your boat winterized yet? Also, don’t think that just because you’re moored in saltwater that freezing won’t be a problem. The reason is that since the soil above the marina’s is super saturated with rain water it will continue to run off the hills and into the marina’s. Since it’s freshwater it will stay on top of the warmer saltwater and on still nights when it gets below freezing, it may freeze especially next to the shore. So freshwater can also be in your thru-hulls and if you don’t have a heater running or if you leave the locker doors closed over the thru-hulls, they can freeze and cause real problems.

As far as this weekend goes, it is simply going to be wet and while not too windy in the central and south Sound, the San Juan Islands and the north Sound are going to be breezy thru Sunday afternoon. In other words, if you want to go winter cruising and have the moorages all to yourself, head to the south Sound.

Crabbing at 2300

The other interesting feature this week will be the tides on Wednesday. We’ll have the lowest tide of the winter on Wednesday night which will be a -3.2ft tide at 2300 hours. If it’s calm you can actually go wading on the north side of Meadow Point and get Dungeness crab in the eel grass beds. Needless to say, dress appropriately and even though you’re just wading, wear a life jacket.

Have a great weekend!