Technically, we are now entering the wettest time of the winter with temperatures expected to be slightly below normal. Overall this means more snow in the mountains with some very brief periods of lowland snow, don’t expect any major lowland snow events. As far as precip goes we are about 1.5 inches behind for the year however we could easily make that up over the next five days.
Friday’s Doppler
Friday’s Surface Chart
Saturday Surface Forecast
Sunday Surface Foreacast
Sunday 500MB
Tuesday 500MB
What about this weekend? Luckily for boaters if you haven’t been to the Seattle Boat Show, you’ll have another chance Saturday (the last day), then on Sunday you may already have plans as is some football game. (Ed. Note, this supposed game on Sunday loses a lot of its luster without the Seahawks. Oh to have another shot at those Patriots.) Otherwise, you can expect occasional rain with occasional wind. No big blows for the inland waters at least for the next couple of days but then on Thursday Feb 9th it looks like another strong front will impact the coast and the San Juan Islands. We’ll be watching that.
The Sunday 5 Feb 500MB chart shows an interesting feature with the upper air coming out of the chilly Canadian interior and colliding with the jet stream (the 564 line) off the California coast before it is pushed to the east. This is a very wet scenario.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This time of the year certainly doesn’t disappoint. The weather here and around the country has been very interesting and shows little or no sign of becoming normal. The Great Lakes aren’t frozen over, the east shores of the Lakes are still getting lots of lake effect snow, the exceptional drought in the Southeast and California is all but gone and in the Pacific Northwest we are getting the effects of a “traditional” La Niña, if there is such a thing.
Current 500MB January 27
January 27 Surface Forecast
January 28 Surface Forecast
January 29 500MB
January 29 Surface Forecast
January 31 500MB
January 31 Surface Forecast
The surface charts for the weekend and into next week especially the one for tomorrow morning show an almost ear drum popping feature with a 1050MB High located over the Great Basin in the Western US. For perspective, the highest pressure ever recorded was a 1083.8MB in 1968 in Agata, Siberia. A fact made more interesting in that this was measured at 826 feet above sea level. This measurement was also made at the height of the Cold War so independent, third party verification was out of the question. I digress, anyway with that high pressure located where it is you can see why they have high wind warnings (70 knots with gusts to 80) up for Santa Ana winds thru the passes to the East of Southern California. That’s high enough that if taken on the beam of an 18 wheeler, it can be blown over, impressive. You can also see that this feature, while not moving very much will weaken as another low pressure system moves slowly towards the West Coast by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. What is interesting is that the interaction between these systems has the effect of weakening both which is good from any number of perspectives. You can also see from the 500MB charts that this isn’t going to change very much over the next few days. It will keep the relatively warm air coming into the PacNW while keeping the very cold Canadian air on the other side of the Cascades.
Over the weekend in the Pacific Northwest we’ll see this play out in what is becoming common for this winter. We’ll have fairly strong east-southeasterly wind off the coast (Small Craft Advisory) with some breeze showing up in the north Sound, east end of the Straits and up into the San Juan Islands. For the mid and south Sound light and variable winds until the next system gets closer on Tuesday or Wednesday. In between you can see another weather rule for the Pacific Northwest play through and that is that the best chance for a strong northerly is the first day the ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the area. Overall, it will be a pretty nice weekend in the Pacific Northwest. In fact, just about a perfect weekend for the Seattle Boat Show.
So, in the meanwhile, go to the BIG Seattle Boat Show! I did a quick walk thru yesterday and there is plenty of new, really cool stuff to see regardless of what kind of boater you are. As I said, I’ll be working at the show in the NMTA information booth Saturday and Sunday so please stop by and say hello. Also, I got some very good questions this week regarding potential trends in the upcoming weather. Thank you and I’m happy to answer those for you.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Happy New Year and let’s all resolve to use our boats more this year!
Not sure what the wind gods have against TTPYC and their Duwamish Head Race but it looks like this could be yet another frustrating day on the water. The key word for tomorrow is patience. There will be wind but not until later which will keep boats on the course well into the Seahawks game. There will also be light spots on the course particularly as you get towards the Des Moines side as you approach the finish after between 1500 and 1800 hrs. Generally speaking, the east side of the Sound north of Three Tree Point (TTP) will tend to be lighter because of the high hills above the water. Stay off the beach but watch your COG and SOG.
The tides shouldn’t be a huge factor unless it gets to 0 gusting to a ½ knot after about 1500 hrs. See below.
Tides at Alki Point
0706 Slack
0900 Flood .23
1100 Slack
1600 Ebb .76
2012 Slack
As you can see from surface charts we have a couple of weak low pressure systems trying to push their way onshore and move that persistent (and cold) 1039 MB high pressure system off to the east-southeast. Unfortunately, that high is still strong enough to keep these fronts at bay and by slowing their approach and weakening them as they get closer to the coast. There will be plenty of breeze in the coastal waters and strong pre-frontal south easterlies in the east and central Straits of JdF on Saturday and into Sunday however it will only show up in fits and starts in the central to south Sound.
Friday Surface Map
Friday 500MB
Surface map Saturday a.m.
Surface map Sunday a.m.
Surface Map January 10
As far as tactics go for the race, this will be a classic Puget Sound sucker punch with plenty of SE (8-10 kts) wind for the start and getting to TTP after which the breeze will start to drop with the Sound glassing off around Alki after about 1130. That’s when you’ll start to get puffs of breeze still from the SE. It will be very much like last year with breeze to Alki and then very puffy and light to get into the mark at Alki.
From Duwamish to Blakely Rock, if you can get around BR before sunset and get aimed back to the finish you stand a pretty good chance of finishing. Otherwise it’s going to very light behind BR. By 2000 hrs there will be fairly steady (8-10 kts) southeasterly over the entire course. Then it’s just a matter of making the time limit which is 13 hours after your start.
Oh, and it will be cold with a slight chance of snow mixed with rain. Stay warm and stay hydrated. Good luck!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
First of all, Season’s Greetings to all of you and thank you for taking the time to, I hope, enjoy my musings about our most interesting weather.
I think most of us will be enjoying the weekend with friends and family as well as watching a lot of football (Go Hawks!!) even though it will be a relatively benign weekend on the water. Today is the day for wind and if you’re heading out to enjoy a long weekend on the water, head south in the northerly and then on Tuesday you can sail north in the southerly. The rest of the weekend we will be between fronts.
Today’s Radar, Wx
December 23 Surface
December 23 500MB
December 24 Surface
December 25 Surface
December 25 500MB
December 27 Surface
Dec 27 500MB
As you can see from the current surface chart and the Langley Hill radar at 1300 hours it’s going to remain wet for a while. However, after the front passes the winds will back off and we may even get a light dusting of snow in the lowlands. It won’t last until the 25th as the freezing level will head back up to the passes by Saturday afternoon.
The picture for the 27th shows another front over us and the isobars tightly bunched which will mean some wind with the rain. All in all, very typical!
Be safe, enjoy the holiday and let’s all decide we’re going to spend more time on the water in 2017 enjoying our amazing Salish Sea.
Ed. Note: And best holiday wishes to Bruce, Kerin, their families and their rather large circles of friends. Peace to all. –KMH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It may be cold but at least there’s very little white stuff forecast for the Salish Sea. The mountains will get more and California will even get some much needed moisture in the form of both rain and snow.
500MB December 16
16 December Surface Chart
17 December Surface Chart
500MB December 18
18 December Surface Chart
500MB December 20
20 December Surface Forecast
As you can see from the current surface chart our weather is currently being dominated by two significant high pressure systems. The first is a 1034 MB high situated over southern BC and the second is a very summer-like 1036 MB high located in the Pacific off of the mouth of the Columbia River. Our current cold weather comes from the former with very cold air coming down out of the Fraser River valley. As is typical of this time of the year, yet another huge low pressure system will come out of the Bering Sea and push these aside. See the 18 Dec Surface chart. Yep, that’s a 940 MB low with a frontal system that extends from the Aleutians to SE Alaska and then back to almost the Philippines. That is a major system and it will be visiting us about the 20th of December.
What does this mean for weekend boating? It will be cold however the breeze will drop off after today and in the central to south Sound conditions will be 5-15 from the south, a little stronger in the northern Salish Sea. If you’re a total curmudgeon and don’t have anything to do around the house in advance of the big holiday, you’ll find most of the anchorages pretty empty. So go out and enjoy yourself just be aware that hypothermia can be a real threat this weekend and if you fall into the water and can’t get out, you are pretty much dead. So please be careful.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s pretty cool to be sitting at the computer looking out on a very wintry landscape complete with snow. It’s not going to last of course but it was probably just the right amount of snow for just about the right amount of time.
December 9 500MB
December 13 500MB
December 11, 500MB
December 11 Surface
December 10 0700 surface chart
December 10 Surface
December 9 Surface
December 13 Surface
Friday Noon Doppler
Friday Water Vapor Image
As you can see from the surface charts we’ve got another low pressure area off the coast with another front that will be coming through this afternoon bringing warmer temps and more rain. The lows off of our coast are fairly weak and north of the jet stream, see the 564 line on the 500MB charts. I mention this because the Tuesday 500MB chart shows the possibility of more cold air coming our way from the interior of Canada.
Why Winterize?
Have you gotten your boat winterized yet? Also, don’t think that just because you’re moored in saltwater that freezing won’t be a problem. The reason is that since the soil above the marina’s is super saturated with rain water it will continue to run off the hills and into the marina’s. Since it’s freshwater it will stay on top of the warmer saltwater and on still nights when it gets below freezing, it may freeze especially next to the shore. So freshwater can also be in your thru-hulls and if you don’t have a heater running or if you leave the locker doors closed over the thru-hulls, they can freeze and cause real problems.
As far as this weekend goes, it is simply going to be wet and while not too windy in the central and south Sound, the San Juan Islands and the north Sound are going to be breezy thru Sunday afternoon. In other words, if you want to go winter cruising and have the moorages all to yourself, head to the south Sound.
Crabbing at 2300
The other interesting feature this week will be the tides on Wednesday. We’ll have the lowest tide of the winter on Wednesday night which will be a -3.2ft tide at 2300 hours. If it’s calm you can actually go wading on the north side of Meadow Point and get Dungeness crab in the eel grass beds. Needless to say, dress appropriately and even though you’re just wading, wear a life jacket.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
So while the weather wonks have gotten us all wound up about the possibility of snow on Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday morning, we’re just happy there’s a great possibility of wind for TYC’s Winter Vashon Race on Saturday. Currently (1300 hrs Friday), There’s plenty of breeze from West Point north so if you’re doing the delivery south to Tacoma, it’s really not going to be too bad. Plus, there was certainly a great party last night at TYC. It’s today that could be very entertaining.
(Editors Note: This is getting out late – early Saturday morning – so be sure to spread the word that Bruce’s words of wisdom are here for the taking)
It’s interesting that none of the models can really agree on what’s going to happen this weekend. While snow is good for headlines and readership, reality may be quite different. No question, it’s going to get colder over the next couple of days but measurable snow in the lowlands? I’m not so sure about that.
As you can see from the surface chart today we’ve got another monster low up in the Gulf of Alaska with an attached front aimed right at the coast from Seward south to Crescent City. This will blow thru today and leave us with a direct onshore flow for the weekend which bring moisture in from the Pacific to meet up with cold air that will be moving south from the interior of Canada. Yes, excellent conditions for snow, however they do have to be perfect for snow to occur in the Puget Sound area.
December 2 Surface Chart
December 2 500 MB
December 3 Surface Chart
December 4 500 MB
December 6 500 MB
December 6 Surface Chart
The best part of this is that it really does look like wind for tomorrow. Not too much to make it uncomfortable and as long as you finish before it about 1900 hours tomorrow night it should be a fairly consistent 5-15 knots of south-southwesterly breeze in the morning that may bump up slightly to 10-20 from the SW in the afternoon.
What does this mean for the race course? Actually there should be some wind, even in Colvos and not like last year’s drag racing from hole to hole, but we’ll see. As always the current will be going the right direction however there are rivers of current in Colvos so you’ll want to watch the COG and SOG to see if you can stay in the axis of the current. (The NOAA current predictions are here – look for Anderson Point) The breeze will be coming in from the coast so it will be puffy and shifty from the southwest in the Passage so watching the fleet will be key. Remember also that out of the 65 boats entered, there are 18 in the Cruising and Commodore Classes that will be starting about 30 minutes ahead of the PHRF fleet and there are some excellent sailors in those early starting classes.
You’ll be starting just before max ebb at the Narrows so the usual rules apply; get west as fast as you can from the start fighting to stay in clear air. Don’t get too close to the bottom end of Vashon and remember that stronger current at the bottom end of Colvos is on the west side.
As the puffs come across Colvos Passage you’ll want to soak down after the puff has hit and your speed starts to build, don’t soak down to fast. Stay in the puff and don’t get too close to the Vashon shore as the puff will lift off the water as it approaches the Island.
As you approach the turning mark off the north end of the Island, don’t mess with the ferries, and be ready for a long starboard tack to Point Robinson, visibility may be low so know the compass course to Point Robinson and don’t sail too far above rhumb line because there will be less wind closer to Vashon. Also have you’re barber hauler rigged for starboard tack since it will probably get more reachy the closer you get to Point Robinson and the further away from the Island you get.
From Point Robinson to the finish it should be an almost dead beat. Slack tide is around 1430 hours going to a max flood around 1630 hours. With days of southerly wind, there won’t be much help in the flood. It will however be more sloppy choppy out in what flood there is. Since the breeze is liable to be more from the southwest, you’ll want to tack towards the Island once you are south of Robinson . just don’t get in too close. When you are on starboard tack, the puffs will be lifts, the water will be smoother and you should gain on the boats that stay too far out.
Know precisely where the finish line and remember that in the southwesterly, you’ll be lifted as you come across Dalco and the current normally flows to the northwest along the slag pile.
Then there’s the delivery back to Seattle. Remember I mentioned it was going to get colder on Sunday. That’s because there will be a cold breeze coming down out of the Canadian interior right down into the Pacific Northwest which will mean a 15-20 knot northerly until late in the afternoon on Sunday. Perfect if you have to deliver the boat south to Olympia, not so good for going north to Seattle or Everett.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Just looking at the surface charts for this weekend you would think that this should be just about the perfect weekend for the Laser Districts/Turkey Bowl and with 22 boats registered, it’s looking pretty great!
The interesting part is that the models are still not in agreement over what will happen on Saturday, at least for central Puget Sound. In the Straits they do agree it’s going to be breezy from east-southeast almost all weekend. As you can see from the surface charts and 500 MB charts there is a very healthy low pressure system that is just sitting off the coast and not going anywhere. It will continue to sit there and just spin off frontal systems which will mean rain and showers for at least the next five days. By Sunday the system will have moved slightly closer to the coast so this will probably the best day for steady breeze from the south in the 10-20 knot range.
Current at West Point
Friday 500MB Chart
Saturday Surface Chart
Sunday Surface Chart
Sunday 500MB Chart
Tuesday Surface Chart
Tuesday 500MB Chart
Saturday will start out with fairly good breeze however it will get a bit light and shifty in the afternoon before it starts to settle back in from the south which should occur sometime early Saturday evening. As they say, conditions will provide something for everyone.
Tides are interesting in that you’ll be sailing in a fairly continuous ebb almost all day both days.
Saturday
0800 Slack
0924 .34 knot Ebb
1112 .26 knot Ebb
1300 .31 knot Ebb
1506 Slack
1730 .62 knot Flood
Sunday
0900 Slack
1042 .26 knot Ebb
1300 .26 knot Ebb
1554 Slack
1830 .6 knot Flood
Remember that with a continuous southerly today and rain starting this evening the ebb will start sooner by 30-45 minutes and last longer by the same amount. There will also be some freshwater rivers on top of the saltwater of the Sound that will be interesting to deal with. Once again it will pay to keep your head out of the boat and watch what’s going on around you. At least with a southerly and an ebb, the water should stay relatively flat.
Sailing off of Shilshole depending upon where the course is set you may still be able to get close enough to the beach to take advantage of the port tack puffs which will be lifts the closer in you can get. On the runs watch for the puffs coming out of the Locks and remember that these puffs tend to fan out the further away from the Ship Canal they get.
Have a great weekend, be safe, it will be wet but really, really fun!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Well, it certainly has been an interesting week! Plus the weather has been its usual interesting self as well with the possibility that we’ll break the record for consecutive days over 60⁰ in November. Record high temperatures in the Midwest and Eastern US, latest time for no temperatures below freezing, the list goes on and on. Now the wags are talking about a La Niña winter. This usually means a wetter and cooler than “normal” whatever that is. As we say however, it’s what’s in Nature that’s real. So we’ll just keep looking at the weather models and try to figure more ways to go boating this time of the year because now is a GREAT time to go boating. The weather can be beautiful and the anchorages are pretty much empty. We do however have to watch the weather a little closer as this is the time of cold fronts, small craft and gale warnings. Much like this weekend.
Radar Image with things coming
500 MB Surface Chart November 11
November 11 Surface Chart
500 MB Surface Chart
Saturday a.m. Surface Chart
500 MB Surface Chart November 13
Sunday a.m. Surface Chart
Tuesday a.m. Surface Chart
The Friday chart looks pretty innocuous with five low pressure systems in the Pacific and a cold front headed right at us. The leading edge of which is currently showing up on the Doppler radar. The Saturday morning chart shows the front ever closer which means increasing wind over the area.
The Sunday morning chart shows an even more intense system approaching the coast with four pretty healthy low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska just getting ready to send more fronts our way. The Tuesday morning surface chart is even more interesting as it appears there will be an endless succession of lows headed into the Pacific Northwest and maybe even northern California which as always, could use the rain. A look at the 500 MB charts shows why this will be pretty relentless since the jet stream is aimed right at us.
So yes, you can go cruising or you can just go down to the marina, take care of some winterizing chores and spend the weekend on the boat reading all those owner’s manuals that you promised yourself you’d get around to eventually. Regardless, always check the VHF for current conditions and plot the barometric pressure. If you have wifi on the boat check the graphs on the NDBC web sites that track wind speed and barometric pressure tendencies. Whatever you do, don’t put yourself, your crew or your boat in harm’s way by taking unnecessary chances.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
No question, fall is here and it’s time for one of the most challenging and consequently one of the most popular races in the Pacific Northwest, Round The County. It’s not easy to get there and it won’t be easy to get home from if your homeport is somewhere other than Anacortes. Details.
It may be gorgeous today but after having had the wettest October in history, 9.8 inches of rain compared to a normal 3.25 inches, we can probably expect more of the same for November, our traditionally wettest month. So if you liked October, you’re going to love this Saturday!
Longboard in last year’s Round the County. Jan Anderson Photo.
As you can see from today’s surface chart and the Saturday AM chart we have a fairly active front headed towards us on Saturday. Start logging your barometer readings when you get to the boat today. The problem will be that after the start (0830±) when the front passes and the barometer starts up, the breeze will drop the closer you get to the finish on the west side of San Juan Island. All of this will be compounded by the tidal currents, so let’s start with a known and then we’ll get the dartboard out.
Peapod Rocks
Saturday
0426 Slack
0824 Flood 2.14 knots
1149 Slack
1403 Ebb 1.03 knots
Sunday*
0414 Slack
0806 Flood 2.01 knots
1131 Slack
1409 Ebb 1.07 knots
2351 Ebb 1.64 knots
Kellett Bluff (Haro Sraits)
Saturday
0343 Slack
0708 Flood 2.01 knots
1054 Slack
1350 Ebb 1.39 knots
1813 Slack
Sunday*
0331 Slack
0702 Flood 1.88 knots
1042 Slack
1344 Ebb 1.14 knots
1909 Slack
*And yes, I know that with the tides in the Pacific Northwest it’s supposed to be an hour later just remember that we change over to Pacific Standard Time at 0200 hrs Sunday morning.
So right now it looks like breeze for the start, with about 2 knots of tide right on the nose. You’ll want a safe starboard tack start trying to leave yourself a opening so you can tack to port and get headed to some tidal relief along the Blakely Island shore. You’ll short tack your way south watching your COG and SOG. After you’ve hit the anti-water don’t spend a lot of time waiting to tack back to port to get back to the beach. This will all be very interesting because of the reverse start. You’ll have to be constantly thinking two to four tacks ahead so you can find your clear air lanes to work your way south to Davidson Rock. Also, if you’re starting with a #1, think about having it in the port groove so if you have to change down you’ll hoist the #3 on starboard tack and then tack change back to port.
Sunday AM 500mb
Friday AM 500mb
Monday AM surface chart
Saturday PM surface chart
Saturday AM surface chart
Friday surface chart
Once you’re at Davidson Rock it will be time to crack off and head towards the halfway mark at Salmon Bank where you must call in your time. So before the start have your barber hauler line rigged for port tack so you won’t have to have too many people off the rail when you decide to reach off. The sprit boats will be able to set sooner than the S-sail boats so you will need to know when you can set. After the mark at Salmon Bank the breeze will begin to back off and you’ll start seeing tide against you if you are too far off the beach. This will be another case where it will be super important to have your head out of the boat and use the boats around you to help guide you up to the finish. The problem here is that there is a back eddy that runs north up the beach from Salmon Bank almost all the way to the Lime Kiln light so you’ll want to ride that as long as you can as the breeze starts to drop and the ebb begins to build against you offshore. There will also be less wind the closer you get to San Juan Island so you’ll be working hard to find that happy medium between less wind and positive water.
As you approach the finish in light air be sure to have your #1 tee’d up and ready to hoist as the breeze can get very shifty in close to the finish. Just remember last year’s start on Sunday. Try to be finished before about 1400hrs on Saturday.
Sunday looks like a pretty nice day for a race as you’ll transition from the post frontal southwesterly in the start to a the pre-frontal southeasterly for the beat from Patos to the finish. Expect the breeze to build from the southeast from about 1400 hours on and make sure your navigator knows which buoys and rocks you have to leave to starboard.
The start will be downwind which will make finding clear air a challenge, that’s the bad news. The good news is that you’ll have the tide with you, just don’t sail too many extra miles to get outside into the stronger tide. As you get to Turn Point don’t cut it too close as there is a distinct light spot in the lee of the Island immediately after the Point, that runs almost the entire length of Stuart Island.. If you get into the light air, it can be a painful gybe to get back out into the breeze. Again, knowing the compass course to Alden Point and sticking to it will be a help. Some boats will tend to hold to the south of the rhumb line, you’re better off to sail the shortest possible course.
After Patos you’ll probably have the tide with you for the beat to Lawrence Point on Orcas Island. It will be long port tacks and short starboard tacks as the water will be smoother closer to the islands. Make sure you have your barber hauler set-up for port tack when you get to Lawrence Point for the reach to the finish. There will be better tide outside of the Peapod Rocks however it’s a shorter distance to sail between Orcas and the Peapods to the finish. If the prefrontal breeze isn’t fully developed there can also be less wind in there.
Then there’s the trip home after the Race. If you’re down from Vancouver, no problem. As long as you’re ready to sail in 25-30 knots of southeasterly. If you have to travel south on Sunday night, the east end of the Straits of JdF will be rough. If you can travel under the Rainbow Bridge in La Conner, go to La Conner, spend Sunday night and then leave at first light on Monday. The breeze will stay out of the southeast at 10-15 for most of Monday and Tuesday before it gets light, less than 10 knots, for late Tuesday, through Wednesday and into Thursday. Thursday afternoon the next front be approaching.
Have a great race and be safe.
Ed. Note: Once again we’re indebted to Bruce Hedrick for this info. And he isn’t even sailing this year! I’ll write up an account of the race early next week from my view aboard Brian Duchin’s and Kelsey Sheldon’s J/133 Tango.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
