Bruce’s Briefs

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 28, 29, 30, June and 1 July.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment

What a long, strange week it’s been! And it’s not going to get much better over the weekend with the wind over the Salish Sea being uncharacteristically light. I just love it when the marine forecaster says variable winds becoming light. Not a good sign for sailors, a great sign for powerboaters.

  • 28 June 500MB
  • 28 June Surf Analy
  • 29 June Surface Forecast
  • 30 June 500MB
  • 30 June Surface Forecast
  • 2 July Surface Forecast

The surface charts tell the story with two troughs of low pressure bracketing a weak ridge of high pressure that is right over the Salish Sea. The Pacific High is abnormally elongated to the north and south and is not very strong at 1030MB. By tomorrow the pressure gradient will ease over the Pacific Northwest and that offshore trough of low pressure will become a very weak (1017MB) system that simply won’t last very long. The Pacific High will continue to follow this strange pattern of trying to stabilize and then weakening again this time to 1026MB. On Sunday, which will probably be the nicest day of the weekend, there will be almost no gradient over the Salish Sea. The Pacific High will be pushed very far to the south, like 34N at 140W. However, there is hope as a stronger high is now starting to form in the Gulf Alaska. The TransPac teams are just really glad they’re not starting now. And then there’s the first Tropical storm of the season, Alvin, which will be putting a brief but somewhat disruptive appearance.

We’ll have a weak upper level low over the area for the weekend which will occasionally cause some light rain today and tomorrow.

Then again, it is the Pacific NW. Have a great weekend and get out on the water.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 21, 22, 23 June 2019

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It is beginning to look a lot like summer, especially considering that summer officially starts today and from now on, the days will be shorter, just as the weather starts to get much nicer, bummer! We did have over a half an inch of rain this week which is always welcome this time of the year however we are still behind for the month by over ¼ of an inch and by almost four (4) inches for the year. By late summer this may come back to haunt us.

  • 21 June 500MB
  • 21 June Surface Analysis
  • 22 June Surface Forecast
  • 23 June 500MB
  • 23 June Surface Forecast
  • 24 June Surface Forecast
  • 25 June Surface Forecast

It will still be a great weekend to be on the water with the caveat that the Central and Eastern Straits of JdF, the San Juan and Gulf Islands, and Admiralty Inlet could see some breezy conditions especially in the late afternoon and early evening hours through Sunday. Plan your voyage accordingly.

The surface charts show the reason for this. We have a relatively weak and amorphously shaped high-pressure system offshore (1029-1032MB) and a weak (1025MB) high inland over Northern BC and SE Alaska. We also have a weak low-pressure system (1014MB) over Eastern Washington. These systems will move and change over the weekend which will cause the onshore flow to fluctuate in velocity but generally be increasing in the late afternoon and into the evening as a function of thermal heating inland. So while things may start out a bit light in the morning, the breeze will tend to increase through the day.

The 500MB chart for today also has an interesting feature with not one but TWO cutoff upper-level lows, one in the Gulf of Alaska and one in the Bering Sea. They won’t last long but they exist as a result of the wacky path the jetstream is on, going way north into the Alaskan and Canadian interior and then sweeping almost back to our coast before heading into mid-America. This should allow for the Pacific High to stabilize and strengthen as we get closer to July. However, before it does we may be brushed by a series of weak frontal systems which could bring southerly breezes to the coastal waters the early part of next week.

In the meanwhile, enjoy your weekend, use lots of sunblock, and be safe. 

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, and 16 June. Perfect Weather.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 14, 15, and 16 June. Perfect Weather.

No question, it is going to be a spectacular weekend over the Salish Sea. The surface chart shows a weak high-pressure system off the West Coast with a central pressure of 1023-1024MB. However, immediately to the west of this high is a weak low-pressure system (990MB) with a long cold front extending south to 30N. Don’t worry, it will have no effect on our weather. Check out the 500MB charts to see why.

  • 14 June 500MB
  • 14 June Surface Analysis
  • 15 June Surface Forecast
  • 16 June Surface Forecast
  • 17 June 500MB
  • 18 June Surface Forecast

The good news for TransPac racers is that this appears to be the start of the Pacific High becoming much more summer-like. In the meanwhile, this high will continue to drive an onshore flow down the Strait of JdF resulting in strong westerlies in the Strait in the late afternoon and into the late evening, easing after midnight. The breeze will ease as it comes down Admiralty Inlet and into the Central Sound. The Central Sound wind pattern will be light and variable in the morning, becoming northerly to about 10-knots in the afternoon.

And, there will be plenty of sunshine without the record high temperatures we had earlier this week. In other words, a perfect weekend to be out on the water, with lots of sunblock of course.

Have a good one.

Bruce’s Briefs: 12 June, Van Isle 360 Ukee to Victoria

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Bruce’s Briefs: 12 June, Van Isle 360 Ukee to Victoria

Tomorrow will bring yet another challenging day, well, morning to racing Around Vancouver Island. Todays Surface Analysis Chart shows the problem. Our summer Pacific High is nowhere near ready to set up anywhere close to its “normal” position at its “normal” pressure. And what about that weak low off the coast of Southern California? So glad we aren’t starting TransPac today. Instead we have a weak high-pressure blob with a peculiar dogleg right off our coast extending inland over Vancouver Island and Queen Charlotte Sound and with the way the isobars are oriented we currently have a drainage offshore flow of east-northeasterly breeze coming down the mountains and then out the Straits. This high will weaken dropping in pressure from 1032MB today to 1024MB tomorrow as it drifts slowly to the west which will bring a more north to south orientation of the isobars which in turn will bring an onshore flow down the Straits. Timing of this is highly variable. With two models show a west-northwesterly breeze filling to the starting area by around mid-day, early afternoon. One model has a late morning fill while another has a late afternoon fill. I am partial to the late morning fill as we’ll have a flood tide in the morning in the Straits and with no cloud cover, heating will start early and these two factors should start the onshore flow down the Straits.

  • 8 June 500MB
  • 8 June Surface Analysis
  • 9 June Surface Forecast
  • 10 June Surface Forecast
  • 8 June Sat Pic

The best thing to do now in anticipation of light air north-northeasterly breeze at the start is to start monitoring barometric pressure at the JA VTS buoy (currently 1023.9MB) at the mouth of the Straits and the pressure at Bellingham (currently 1025MB). When the pressure becomes higher at JA than it is at Bellingham, the westerly will start.

While I’m not sure if the Gale Warnings that are in place for tomorrow in the Central and Eastern Straits are entirely appropriate, I would also start charting windspeeds at Sheringham, Race Rocks and Trial Island just to see what will be waiting at Race Passage. I think you could see 20-knots with higher gusts in the vicinity of Race Rocks by early to late evening and the easing into the early morning hours.

The good news is that the tidal current in Race Passage won’t be too ugly until about 0330-0400 Thursday morning when you’ll have the big ebb of the day at 5.7 knots at 0530.

Tidal Currents Race Passage

Wednesday 12 June

0837      Slack

1111      Max Flood            2.8 knots

1342      Slack

1700      Max Ebb                 3.0 knots

2000      Slack                       

2238      Max Flood            3.3 knots

Thursday 13 June

0116      Slack

0530      Max Ebb                 5.7 knots

0915      Slack

In conclusion, a little light at the start but building on the run to the finish with a nice tidal window at Race Passage. I have TP52’s finishing between 2230 tomorrow night and 0130 Thursday morning.

Have a great race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9 June 2019 Van Isle 360 Winter Harbour to Ucluelet

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 9 June 2019 Van Isle 360 Winter Harbour to Ucluelet

This will be a very interesting leg which will be very challenging in that the fleet will be beating almost the entire leg. The models are not in agreement as to how much wind you’ll be beating into for the first six hours. The European model has as much as 30-knots from the southeast while the NAM and GFS models have 20-knots from the southeast but only as far as the Brooks Peninsula. After that, it is just a dead beat in 10-15-knots until about midnight tomorrow night when the breeze will drop to 10 knots or less after Estevan Pt. Between Tofino and Ucluelet the breeze will continue to drop to 5-knots or less and clock slightly from southeast to south.

  • 8 June 500MB
  • 8 June Surf Analysis
  • 9 June Surface Forecast
  • 10 June Surface Forecast

Todays Surface Charts show the reasons for this. We have a relatively weak high-pressure system (1031MB) centered off the Oregon coast and a weak low-pressure system (1001MB) at about 47N 160W with an attached cold front that moving towards the north end of Vancouver Island and Queen Charlotte Sound. It’s this cold front that will bring a prefrontal southeasterly to the race course. It’s just a question of how close it will actually get that will determine how much wind you’ll be beating into. The 500MB chart also helps explain the problem of trying to predict how close the front will come.  After this weak front passes to the north, the pressure gradient will ease, the breeze will drop and clock slowly to the south and then southwest. Todays Sat Pic shows the clouds associated with this front already approaching the north end of Vancouver Island.

I once again ran the numbers for the TP52’s and I have them finishing in about 26 hours. The course length is 138-miles and I have them sailing about 180-miles.

I hope some of you were able to get out and enjoy some of the great fishing Winter Harbour has to offer. A couple of years ago we caught enough salmon to feed the crew that night at the bbq. It was great.

Enjoy the race and be safe.

Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 7, 8, 9 and 10 June. Downtown Sailing Series Leukemia Cup, R2AK update, and Van Isle 360.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing , 0 Comment

The last two days have certainly been interesting and today could get even more interesting as we move to the evening hours. The surface charts and the 500MB charts explain why. Todays Surface Analysis shows a trough of low pressure moving through the Salish Sea today which will allow a building onshore flow to develop which will have very different effects on the three races mentioned above. The reason for all the instability around the area, rain, hail, lightning, etc etc is that upper-level low(548MB) seen on the 500MB Chart which has been parked over us the last couple of days. By tomorrow all of that will be gone and as high pressure builds over the area we should be in for a lovely weekend and a very warm week. Unfortunately, as this high-pressure builds over us, the pressure gradient will ease and except for maybe the eastern end of the Strait of JdF, San Juan, Gulf Islands, and Admiralty Inlet, winds will be on the light side. Expect Small Craft Advisories in the Straits and SJI’s where we’ll have southwesterly winds of 15-25 knots. Late Saturday afternoon and into the evening this onshore flow will come down the Straits and into Admiralty Inlet bringing northwesterlies of 15-25 knots.

  • 7 June 500MB
  • 7 June Surface Analysis
  • 8 June Surface Forecast
  • 9 June 500MB
  • 9 June Surface Forecast
  • 10 June Surface Forecast
  • 11 June Surface Forecast

For the Downtown Sailing Series kickoff event, the Leukemia Cup, expect light winds and expect to have a great time requiring lots of sunblock!

For R2AK, the lead boat, Pear Shaped Racing, just sailed by Campbell River at 1500 hrs however the tide is now against them so we’ll see if they can make it through Seymour Narrows as the tide will build to 12.5 knots at 1816 hrs. Slack won’t be until 2150 hrs tonight. This will allow the next part of the fleet to slowly compress before Campbell River. There may be a big restart at Campbell River when the tide turns.

For the Van Isle 360 folks, they had a great sail from Telegraph to Port Hardy two days ago and this morning started the leg from Port Hardy to Winter Harbour, the first of the legs to get to the outside of Vancouver Island. I had expected them to be in more of a northwesterly by now however the TP52’s are only making 7-8 knots and aren’t quite to Cape Scott. There is wind out there with Solander on the Brooks Peninsula reporting 26-knots from the northwest. So we’ll see when that gets to the fleet and sends them flying down to the finish at Winter Harbour.

As I said, get ready for a warm week and don’t forget to put the sunblock on before you leave the house.

Bruce’s Briefs: Port Hardy to Winter Harbour, Van Isle 360 2019

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: Port Hardy to Winter Harbour, Van Isle 360 2019

This should be another very interesting but fun leg to Winter Harbour. Today’s chart shows the remains of that low-pressure system off of the coast of Washington, with a weak trough of low pressure drifting towards the coast, which is the reason for our unsettled weather around Seattle today. The great news is that after this low dissipates, a ridge of high pressure will build along the coast giving us a nice pressure gradient paralleling the coast.

  • 7 June Surface Forecast
  • 7 June 0900 EC HR
  • 7 june 1200 EC HR
  • 7 June 1500 EC HR
  • 7 June 1800 EC HR
  • 7 June 2100 EC HR
  • 8 June Surface Forecast

There will be light air for the start however by late morning a gentle onshore will build bringing 5-10 knots of northwesterly down the Goletas Channel. After the Nahwitti Bar, this will mean a close, fast reach to Cape Scott followed by a nice run to the finish outside of Winter Harbour. Running the numbers for the TP 52’s, I have them finishing around 2000hrs tomorrow night.

Once again, after the sun goes down the breeze will begin to drop along the coast which will mean a lighter air finish, be prepared for anything.

Have a great race and be safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Leg 2, Victoria to Ketchikan 2019

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Briefs: R2AK Leg 2, Victoria to Ketchikan 2019

Today’s weather picture presents a complex pattern with a little bit for everyone. The current Surface Analysis has a series of three weak low-pressure systems strung across the Pacific Northwest from east of the Cascades to off of the Strait of JdF to off of the north end of Vancouver Island. The attached frontal system off of the center low will cross over the coast this afternoon and is already bringing rain to the south Sound. By tomorrow morning all that will be left of these systems is a weak low-pressure system (1013mb) that will be drifting off the central Vancouver Island coast. This system will not move very much over the next 24-48 hours.

  • 5 June Surf Analysis
  • 6 June Surf Forecast
  • 6 June 1200 EC HR
  • 6 June 1500 EC HR
  • 6 June 1800 EC HR
  • 6 June 2100 EC HR
  • 7 June 0000 EC HR
  • 7 June Surf Forecast 2

For R2AK this will mean a bit of a light air start in a south to southeasterly breeze. Great for the rowers and paddlers. By mid-afternoon, onshore flow will develop bringing a westerly down the Strait of JdF. This westerly will become southwesterly through the San Juan and Gulf Islands of 10-15 knots, great for the sailors. Then it will be time for the first big decision:  Which way to get north to Nanaimo, go inside and up Trincomali Channel exiting at Porlier Pass or outside through Boundary Pass and into the Strait of Georgia, an additional 10 miles? And then there’s the current at Porlier Pass. Racers will have the big flood of the day with them until about 2030hrs, Thursday night. Rowers and paddlers will simply go the shortest possible course.

I ran both routes for the Melges 32 and if they go up the inside (about 10 miles shorter) I have them making Porlier at 2000 hours and arriving at Entrance Island at midnight. If they went outside on the longer course they would sail an additional seven miles on top of the 10-mile longer course and they would arrive at Entrance Island at almost exactly the same time.

This basically agrees with two of the models which will have more wind in the Strait of Georgia but to stay in the wind you’ll have to sail up the east side by Tsawwassen and the Roberts Bank. If you do go up the inside it will be lighter but a much shorter distance. Do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya?

After Entrance, the southerly-southwesterly breeze will drop as the onshore flow works its way down the Strait of Georgia creating a zone of light air. After which the breeze will build to about 8-12 from the northwest and that will last until about mid-morning on Saturday when it will go light once again as racers approach Campbell River and the big tidal gate at Seymour Narrows. As in the past, if one boat can make it through and close the door on the fleet behind, that can be the entire race. 

Good luck, have a great race and be safe. I’ll continue to update the weather as long as my boss will let me.

Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 5 June, Telegraph Cove to Port Hardy, Van Isle 360

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing, Weather 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief’s: Wx for 5 June, Telegraph Cove to Port Hardy, Van Isle 360

I’m worried that racers are not going to know what to do with this forecast. There will be wind ( 4-14-knots), probably for the entire leg, it won’t be light,ok it might be a little light for the start and the first couple of hours but after that and more importantly, it will be from astern. In other words, you will finally get to fly those large, round, dangerous, colored sails. Pretty much all the way to Port Hardy where you may need a headsail to beat down to the finish inside of Hardy Bay.

The reason for all this optimism is the low with attached front approaching Vancouver Island. The wind has already gone around to the south-southeast at the East Dellwood and  West Sea Otter Buoys and the barometer continues to fall at those locations. As the front goes through about midday tomorrow, the wind will clock from the SSE to SSW to closer you get to Port Hardy.

  • 4 June Surface Analysis
  • 5 Jun 0800 EC HR
  • 5 june 1100
  • 5 June 1400
  • 5 June 1700
  • 5 June 2000
  • 5 June Surface Forecast
  • 7 June Surface Forecast

The satellite pic shows that there isn’t much to this front so it will move right along and after I’m sure what will be a welcome layday in Port Hardy, the onshore flow will build which should give you a nice beat out to Cape Scott followed by a nice reach down to Winter Harbor. Keep your fingers crossed.

As far as tactics go on this leg, it will pay to sail the shortest possible course. Keep Pearse, Cormorant, and Haddington Island to starboard. For your final approach to the entrance of Port Hardy, keep Masterman Islands to starboard. Yes, you can sail through there, just keep track of all the rocks that are in there.

Enjoy the day, have a great sail and be safe.

Bruce’s Wx Brief for 4 June: Hardwicke to Telegraph Cove

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing 0 Comment
Bruce’s Wx Brief for 4 June: Hardwicke to Telegraph Cove

Yet another interesting day awaits the racers tomorrow as our weather picture is not changing very rapidly. Offshore from San Francisco, we have a relatively weak high-pressure system (1026mb) that is being pushed around by a weak low-pressure system (1016mb) that is generally moving towards Vancouver Island. As we have said, when it begins to interact with the coastal buffer zone, this low and attached frontal system will slow and degrade. Again. For tomorrow this will mean a weak pressure gradient as the onshore flow will again be light in the morning until the breeze is drawn down Johnstone Strait.

  • 3 Jun Surf Analysis
  • 4 Jun Surf Frcst3
  • 4 Jun 2100 EC HR
  • 4 jun 1800
  • 4 Jun 1500
  • 4 Jun 1200
  • 4 Jun 0900
  • 5 Jun Surf Frcst

At 0800 hours expect a west-northwesterly breeze of 4-6 knots in the starting area. As you beat toward Telegraph Cove the breeze will become light and variable from Robson Bight to Port Hardy. Depending upon the amount of morning overcast, once it begins to clear and the land warms, expect a 4-6 knot WNW to fill down from Telegraph Cove to Robson Bight. By mid-afternoon, again depending upon the clearing, this WNW should build to 6-8 knots. By early to mid-evening this should build to 8-10 knots from the WNW.  After sunset, expect the breeze to start to drop.

You’ll have the tide with you until about 1300hrs so make the most of it.

Ed. Note: You can find links to all the results here. The TP52s appear to be taking turns ahead of each other while the 41′ Blue is having some great legs. 65 Red Roses appears to be having a good series in Division 2. I’ll try to get cumulative results out to you. The Jeanneau 51 Iris had an encounter with a log that put her saildrive out of commission (being repaired) and the catamaran Cheekee Monkee had to withraw because of a bum “torpedo drive” (assuming that’s an auxiliary system).