Tomorrow will bring yet another challenging day, well, morning to racing Around Vancouver Island. Todays Surface Analysis Chart shows the problem. Our summer Pacific High is nowhere near ready to set up anywhere close to its “normal” position at its “normal” pressure. And what about that weak low off the coast of Southern California? So glad we aren’t starting TransPac today. Instead we have a weak high-pressure blob with a peculiar dogleg right off our coast extending inland over Vancouver Island and Queen Charlotte Sound and with the way the isobars are oriented we currently have a drainage offshore flow of east-northeasterly breeze coming down the mountains and then out the Straits. This high will weaken dropping in pressure from 1032MB today to 1024MB tomorrow as it drifts slowly to the west which will bring a more north to south orientation of the isobars which in turn will bring an onshore flow down the Straits. Timing of this is highly variable. With two models show a west-northwesterly breeze filling to the starting area by around mid-day, early afternoon. One model has a late morning fill while another has a late afternoon fill. I am partial to the late morning fill as we’ll have a flood tide in the morning in the Straits and with no cloud cover, heating will start early and these two factors should start the onshore flow down the Straits.
8 June 500MB 
8 June Surface Analysis 
9 June Surface Forecast 
10 June Surface Forecast 
8 June Sat Pic
The best thing to do now in anticipation of light air north-northeasterly breeze at the start is to start monitoring barometric pressure at the JA VTS buoy (currently 1023.9MB) at the mouth of the Straits and the pressure at Bellingham (currently 1025MB). When the pressure becomes higher at JA than it is at Bellingham, the westerly will start.
While I’m not sure if the Gale Warnings that are in place for tomorrow in the Central and Eastern Straits are entirely appropriate, I would also start charting windspeeds at Sheringham, Race Rocks and Trial Island just to see what will be waiting at Race Passage. I think you could see 20-knots with higher gusts in the vicinity of Race Rocks by early to late evening and the easing into the early morning hours.
The good news is that the tidal current in Race Passage won’t be too ugly until about 0330-0400 Thursday morning when you’ll have the big ebb of the day at 5.7 knots at 0530.
Tidal Currents Race Passage
Wednesday 12 June
0837 Slack
1111 Max Flood 2.8 knots
1342 Slack
1700 Max Ebb 3.0 knots
2000 Slack
2238 Max Flood 3.3 knots
Thursday 13 June
0116 Slack
0530 Max Ebb 5.7 knots
0915 Slack
In conclusion, a little light at the start but building on the run to the finish with a nice tidal window at Race Passage. I have TP52’s finishing between 2230 tomorrow night and 0130 Thursday morning.
Have a great race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)