I agree, we are all pretty tired of this cool and wet weather we’ve had so far this April. We are still about an inch of rainfall ahead for the month and still about 5” behind for the year. We still have not had a day this month where the high temp was over 60°F. We -+
Today’s surface chart and sat pic show that we are still in for a mostly cloudy and slightly damp weekend. We have a weak high-pressure system (1033MB) off the central California coast and a weak trough of low pressure over the Salish Sea. The front we had yesterday has moved on to the east while another weak front will come ashore late tonight and into tomorrow morning, followed by yet another front late on Sunday.
Overall, there will be more wind on Sunday than there will be on Saturday. In the eastern Strait of JdF, we could have 15-20 knots of ESE in the morning however that will ease to 10-12 knots of SE by mid-afternoon. The South Sound will be light all-day however the Central Sound may start off light, a S to SSW wind of 10-12 knots will fill by mid-day and then ease by the late afternoon.
April 21
Sunday will start light in the South Sound but be 15-20 knots from the SSW for Central Sound and that will hold for most of the day.
The other charts of interest today are the 48, 72, and 96 hr 500MB charts. They show a change from the mostly zonal flow we had to a more meridional flow by the 25th of April. This is also allowing the jet stream to slowly but steadily come ashore further and further north. This is what will bring warmer temps to our area by next weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As usual, spring does not disappoint with its variety of weather in the Pacific NW. This weekend and the coming week will offer the usual smorgasbord of weather. At least we don’t live near Ft. Lauderdale, (or for that matter anywhere in Florida) where they got 25” of rain in 24 hours earlier this week, and the airport in FL is still closed.
When it comes to rainfall, all it took was 5 days for us to go from behind for the month to almost an inch ahead and it’s only mid-April. For the year we are still behind by almost 5” however I think we’ll take that because with the less rainfall has come the cooler than normal temps which will keep the snowpack intact and help us going into the summer. This became even more important this week with the NWS announcing an official El Niño watch for the upcoming fall and winter. This usually means a warmer and drier summer than normal for the Pacific NW. It should also mean a less intense hurricane season for the Atlantic and the Pacific. The wildcard in this is the persistent global warming and the fact that forecasters don’t know how this will impact the upcoming El Niño.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the clearing we are enjoying now however off of the Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii) there is a 999Mb low which will intensify to 983Mb over the next 24 hrs so not bombogenesis but close. This is what will impact our weather starting late tomorrow afternoon and into Sunday. We will have a nice day for sailing tomorrow but wet and windy on Sunday which will continue into the coming week.
April 14
The surface forecast chart for tomorrow shows a tightening of the pressure gradient along Vancouver Island however a wide gap over Puget Sound. This will translate to strong southerly winds along the coast and the eastern end of the Strait of JdF. The Central Sound will have southerly winds in the 10-12 knt range with the South Sound staying in the 5-8 knt range. There will be some easing in the late afternoon however by midnight the breeze will build in the Eastern Strait of JdF and San Juan Islands.
On Sunday by noon, the breeze in the Eastern Strait will be in the 25-35knt range, while the Central and South Sound will have SE-S breeze of 15-25 knots. By mid-afternoon, the breeze in the Strait will ease as a post-frontal breeze tries to make it down the Strait. The breeze in the Central and South Sound will stay in the 12-20 knot range with an increase to 15-25 knots in the Central Sound by late afternoon and early evening.
The other interesting charts of note today are the 500MB or upper-air charts, which show a return to meridional flow with the jet stream coming ashore just north of SF by Sunday and then retreating to the LA area by Tuesday. This is what will keep us in a cooler and wetter pattern this coming week with the remote possibility that we may set a record for having no 60°F+ days in April. I still say we’ll take that.
Have a Great Weekend, stay safe, and use that sunblock!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
The folks on the South Straits Race got off in a bit of light air however the breeze will pick up for them late this afternoon or early evening and then build into the low 20’s from the ESE for the rest of the race. Not bad!
We’ve had some rain this week which for the month keeps us almost near normal. For the year we are still behind by 5.77”. Unfortunately for all you outside Easter egg hunters, it is going to be wet especially on Sunday when we could see 1”+ of rainfall. The upcoming week will a series of wash, rinse, and repeat as we are into a typical wet Pac NW pattern. The bad part of this is the warm temps that are even getting into the mountains and starting to melt our snow pack. Don’t forget about California as they are going to get two more wet systems this week as well.
For boaters there will definitely be wind both Saturday and Sunday especially in the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF. The races out of Anacortes and Port Townsend will definitely be impacted as the fleets could see 25-30 knots of SE breeze with higher gusts. Plan accordingly. The Central Sound and South Sound will see slightly less breeze however be sure to check conditions before you head out.
The other charts of interest today are the upper level, 500MB charts. The flow is slowly changing from zonal to meridional and the jet stream is finally starting to work its way north. This migration will be slowed by the presence of an upper level low pressure system right off our coast. See the 96Hr, April 11th 500MB chart. This system will also serve to keep us in a relatively wet pattern for the upcoming week. So much for getting the lawn mowed. That does however give you the opportunity to check the boat, and re-tie the mooring lines and fenders. Winter isn’t done with us yet.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Once again, it’s going to be a very interesting weekend. The doom and gloom forecasts certainly help to drive ratings for the TV weather nogs but the reality may be something quite different because the models are not in agreement about the system we have coming ashore right now. The sat pic, Doppler radar, and surface analysis all show an occluded front headed our way, and the sat pic in particular shows quite an area of cool, unstable air behind the front. Current readings from Destruction Island on the coast show the barometric pressure is rising and the post-frontal wind building into the 30-knot range. It is always interesting to watch what happens as these fronts encounter the land and the Olympic Mountains. Typically they weaken and slow down however, we shall see.
The overall weather picture from the surface analysis chart shows a moderate low-pressure system (984MB) just off of Sitka, with a weak trough of low-pressure just inland from SE Alaska to Oregon. There is also a weak high-pressure system (1010MB) just on the other side of the Cascades and a series of weak highs (1022-1026MB) in the Pacific. The jet stream and upper air chart for today still show a mostly zonal flow with a cut-off upper-level low just north of Hawaii and the jet stream coming ashore in LA. All of these will keep our temps below normal and keep us in a rainy pattern for today and tomorrow.
It’s the surface forecast chart for tomorrow which shows the pressure gradient easing as the front has passed. Some models have the wind over the central Sound easing to the 5-12 knot range while the UW MM5 model shows a post-frontal flow coming through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound in the 15-18 knot range and then building to 20-25 in the early afternoon before a northerly of 12-16 knots fills down the Sound in the mid-afternoon. This will keep tacticians and trimmers very busy and help to keep them warm in the cold and the rain.
Tidal Current at West Point won’t be an issue tomorrow.
0700 Slack
1218 Max Fld .32 knts
1430 Slack
1542 Max Ebb .14 knts
1730 Slack
With a consistent southerly for today and tomorrow as well as a fair amount of freshwater being dumped into the Sound by the Duwamish and the Ship Canal may result in a wind-generated surface current flowing to the north and negating the weak flood. Something to watch especially in the neighborhood of the West Point and Meadow Point buoys.
March 31 Satellite PictureMarch 31 Doppler RadarApril 1 MM5
So how do we sail the race tomorrow? Most likely the usual topographical shifts will still be in play along the east side of the Sound. So getting a clean start and finding a lane of clear air up to West Point will be critical. At West Point, it will be time to head across the Sound and get to the west side to be in a position to take advantage of the puffs that will be lifts on starboard tack as you go up the Bainbridge shore. Watch getting in too close to the Bainbridge shore as it can be lighter in there.
As you approach the Rock you’ll probably set up to do a port pole bear-away set so you can avoid the rocks just north of Blakely Rock. If the wind starts to lighten up, it’s time to gybe and aim for Meadow Point. Near West Point, you’ll want to start trying to figure out how to be the inside boat for the rounding at Meadow Point and discussing what kind of drop you’re going to do so you can have everything clear to tack away from the beach. It gets shallow very quickly in there so be ready and make sure the boats around you know that you’re going to need shore room.
Once on the beat to the finish, you will need to figure out how to get to the favored end of the finish line. If it’s the boat end of the line get back to the beach so you can tack to port and lay the committee boat end. If it’s the buoy end of the line hold port from Meadow Point until you can tack to starboard to get to the buoy.
Have fun, stay safe, stay warm, and enjoy the race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It is still a cooler and more unstable spring and that will be seen as we race tomorrow. As far as rainfall goes, we are only 1” behind for the month however we are 5.1” behind for the year. Unlike California which is ahead for just about everything. Plus they are going to get another rainy and breezy event on the 28th when another compact low-pressure system comes ashore near San Francisco bringing rain to the Coast and Central Valley and more snow to the Sierra Nevada Range. See the surface forecast chart for 28 March as well as the 500MB charts.
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the surface trough of low pressure moving inland with a weak high-pressure system off of Northern CA. In the sat pic, note the trough along the coast and the cool, unstable air behind the trough. As the high builds offshore, the pressure gradient will ease over the Salish Sea. By tomorrow morning a weak trough will drift inland while a secondary lobe of high-pressure builds inland over northern CA and southern OR. This will have the effect of keeping a predominately southerly flow over the area for tomorrow while a weak onshore flow will develop down the Strait of JdF. This may bring a weak northerly flow into the North Sound and Admiralty Inlet late tomorrow, it just won’t last.
March 24 Satellite
For the general race area tomorrow we’ll probably start with a nice southerly of 8-12 knots. This will hold until about mid-day when the gradient will ease and the breeze south of West Point will ease to 3-5 knots but remain in the 8-10 knot range north of West Point. By about 1400hrs the breeze will ease to 3-5 knots from Alki to Edmonds. By about 1500hrs the breeze will be light and variable from Everett to Alki. In other words, we would hope to be finished by 1400-1500hrs.
The other interesting feature tomorrow will be the tidal currents at West Point:
0748 Slack
0930 Max Ebb .37 knts
1212 Slack
1730 Max Flood .84 knots
Presuming an upwind start, that puts us against a weak ebb and if we go to Blakely Rock or Duwamish Head and hopefully nothing further south, we will then have to fight a building flood as the breeze drops. As I said, the “Best Course for the Day” will be a challenge. At least the rain will be light and the temps coolish. YUK!
Sunday will be much the same except up in the Straits where there will be a pre-frontal SE.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Well, this will be a short report. The rain is backing off, the jet stream will stay south which will keep the systems going into California. This will also keep temperatures a little cooler than normal. At least for the tomorrow the high will finally be in the low 60’s.
The problem for the Islands Race will be that the breeze is going to be light and variable over the Salish Sea for most of the day tomorrow. As you look at the surface charts, the gap in the isobars is fairly wide, so no pressure gradient. So pretty much you can expect 0-5 knots of wind, at least it won’t be raining and the temp will be in the 60’s.
Enjoy the weekend.
(Ed. Note: Racers might be interested in checking out the ORC article posted earlier today.)
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
At least the models this week are pretty much in alignment with the forecast in that there should be more wind going north than going south. After last week where none of the models were in agreement, the one that was the closest was the UW MM5 hi-res which was extremely close right up until the end. So we’ll take a closer look at that one this week.
In the rainfall totals as of today, we are only .11” behind and for a while this week we actually got a little ahead. Year to date we are at 6.59” compared to an average of 10.79” so still 4.2” behind for the year. At least there won’t be as much rain tomorrow as there was last Saturday. Plenty of time to make up for the rainfall shortage this coming week. It’s also interesting that NOAA officially declared our La Niña threepeat over and possibly trending to an El Niño oscillation. Plenty of time for that to change as well.
Tidal Currents for Saturday
West Point
0630 Slack
0830 Max ebb .43 knts
1042 Slack
1618 Max fld .83 knts
1948 Slack
Foulweather Bluff (in case we go north)
0725 Slack
1054 Max ebb 2.51 knts
1418 Slack
1706 Max fld 2.02 knts
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the frontal system that is moving over us today and the cool, unstable air behind the front that will bring a short period of weak, onshore flow. The dominant feature that will remain in play will be a low-pressure system that remains off the coast with yet another attached cold front. This will keep a southerly flow in place over the south, central, and north Sound for the weekend in advance of the next front which will move over the area late Sunday and into early Monday. Unfortunately, the gradient will be weaker over the south Sound, so the breeze will ease there starting just after mid-day Saturday while in the central and north Sound, we should see a more consistent 10-20 knots of southerly.
The 500MB or upper-level Charts also show a consistent pattern of zonal flow with the Jet Stream continuing to come ashore well to the south of us. This will continue to keep us in a wet pattern with temperatures below normal. California is also due for two more frontal systems this coming week and since they are not coming down from the north, will bring warmer temperatures and warm rain to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Not a good combination.
If we go north tomorrow, since we’ll be sailing in an ebb it will pay to stay slightly to the west of rhumb going north. Remember that as you approach the Scatchet Head mark the ebb will increase and be flowing from east to west so build in some room to go around that mark. Remember also that the breeze tends to build once you are north of the line from Edmonds to Kingston. So plan your rounding well in advance.
After the mark which way to go home will depend on how fast you got up to the mark. If you are early at the mark and the ebb is still rolling, it will pay to tack to starboard to get back to the east and pick up the ebb out of Possession Sound, and ride that south to Pt Wells. Remember that the shallow area from Richmond Beach north to Edwards Point extends out further than you may think.
After Richmond Beach, it will probably pay to keep working that side of the Sound, however, be sure to keep an eye out to the west in case the post-frontal breeze becomes more southwesterly. If the SW breeze comes across the Sound that will help you set up for a starboard tack approach to the finish line.
If you are late getting up to the mark, it may pay to hold port tack and head to the west to pick up the start of the flood down the shore south of Pt No Pt. Hold that side until you get to Jeff Head and then sail starboard tack all the way across the Sound so you can more accurately gauge your approach to the finish.
The week’s Ouija board has the J-30 around the Scatchet Head mark at 1254 finishing at 1613. The J-105’s around SH at 1249, finishing at 1555. The J-109’s and C&C 115’s around at 1246 finishing at 1550. The J-35 around at 1300 finishing at 1605. Terremoto around at 1234 finishing at 1507. The TP-52’s around at 1228 finishing at 1448.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This will certainly be interesting. It is the first race of the Center Sound series so it will be good to just get back on the water. It won’t be warm but at least it won’t be snowing, just raining on the Sound. The Olympics and the Cascades will be another story. As far as rain goes, while it may only be the 3rd of March, we are already slightly behind for the month. For the year we are 4.2” behind, while the snowpack is way ahead for this time of the year. With the jet stream being where it is, the temps will tend to stay below normal for some time to come.
The short story for tomorrow is that NONE of the models are in agreement. Today’s surface analysis and the two surface forecast charts for tomorrow will give you a good indication as to why the models are having such a tough time coming into agreement. Today’s surface analysis chart simply shows a broad trough of low pressure off to the NW of Vancouver Island and the potential for a weak low-pressure system to form off the coast. Combine this with a jet stream (note the 500MB charts) that is coming ashore well south of us, and the surface forecast charts that show that this low-pressure system simply won’t be going anywhere. Instead, as it drifts around and bumps into the coastal buffer zone, it will just continue to weaken while sending in a weak occluded front sometime tomorrow morning that will weaken as it comes ashore. Not a very dynamic picture. If however, you are up in the Strait of JdF, there will be plenty of breeze from the ESE. Since the low will remain offshore this will keep a pressure gradient with very much an E to SE component over much of the Salish Sea. The problem will be in the Center Sound where because it’s a relatively weak gradient, the breeze could be very light.
How light? One model had the TP-52’s finishing just after 2000hrs and the J-35 finishing at 2235 hrs. Let’s not go with that. At least two of the models have the breeze staying out of the ESE for the entire day but never getting above 8 knots. The UW model has the breeze starting out from ESE at 12-18 knots before easing to 5-12 knots and then switching to SW 8-12 before it eases to 5 knots from the south by late afternoon before it switches to the ESE at 8-15 knots by early evening.
So we still have to sail with what we’ve got so start logging the breeze this evening at West Point(S-29knts now), Destruction Island(SE-18), the JA Buoy at the mouth of the Straits(SSE-18), and Race Rocks(ESE-7). Also log the barometric pressure, at the same places so you can see what gradient is developing. 1400hrs WP 1013.6 Falling, DI 1011.9 Falling, JA 1010.2 Falling, and RR 1011.9 Falling.
Luckily tidal currents should be minimal:
Current at West Point
0712 Slack
1154 Max Fld .39 knts
1436 Slack
1606 Max Ebb .24 knts
1800 Slack
With the wind we are currently having and the rain we’ve had, this will tend to start the ebb sooner and extend the ebb. It will also decrease the velocity of the flood.
March 4 MM5
The usual topographic effects will be in play so you will want to get a clear air start at the favored end of the line and hold starboard until you can lay West Point. It’s possible this could be a one-tack beat to Blakely Rock. The other problem will be that with the reverse start finding and keeping a clear air lane is going to be tough. If after West Point you find yourself stuck, don’t hesitate to take a short clearing tack to starboard to get back into clear air. You will also want to be watching the boats ahead of you to see if the ESE breeze holds or is there a knock as you sail across the Sound.
The next question will be if the breeze is from the ESE, is the crew good enough to do a port pole set at Blakely Rock and then gybe immediately when you can safely clear the west end of the Rock? If the breeze is from the S to SW then just do the port pole set when you are squared away. Hold the port gybe until you can gybe and be aimed at the leeward mark. Generally, it pays to stay slightly to the west of the rhumbline.
March 3 Satellite ImageMarch 3 Doppler
At the bottom mark, get on the wind and try to find that lane of clear air for the long beat to the finish. If it is starting to go light, don’t let too many people accumulate in the cockpit. Shift the weight forward and to leeward to keep the stern out of the water and slightly heeled. Again, keep watching the boats ahead of you for some indication about what wind direction you’ll be dealing with at the finish. If the breeze is out of the south hold starboard tack in towards the beach because once again it will tend to be SE along the east side of the Sound. Then you will need to start figuring out which end of the line is favored so you sail the shortest possible course. If the breeze is out of the ESE don’t sail so far into the beach that you overstand the finish.
The more optimistic model has the TP-52’s finishing around 1443. The J-105’s in at 1611, the C&C 115’s and J-109’s in at 1558, the J-35 in at 1606, Terremoto in at 1455, and the J-30 in at 1708. Let’s hope!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
As I said in my Wednesday night presentation to the OYC and SSSS, I expected conditions to change just because of the lack of movement of systems and the amorphous behavior of the systems over the Pacific NW. Today’s surface analysis chart shows high-pressure systems to the north and south of us with low-pressure systems to the east and west of us. By tomorrow morning we’ll simply have a weak (1018MB) low pressure offshore with an attached cold front. As this system comes onshore it will weaken and a strong post-frontal onshore flow will develop along the coast bringing a 20-25 knot NW breeze. There will also be a nice flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound in the morning and early afternoon. There will also be a nice flow down the Strait of JdF and then into the Central and South Sound. This is how things will get interesting for Toliva Shoal. The other caveat here is that none of the models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow.
By the 19th of Feb we’ll have a nice and round Pacific High which would be great if we getting ready for Hawaii however this time of the year it will simply serve to deflect storm systems away from us. The really interesting chart is the 96hr (21 Feb) surface forecast. The Pacific High has deepened to 1046MB and moved into the Gulf of Alaska while two weak low-pressure systems remain over the Salish Sea, This will bring yet another cold snap to our area as well as a chance of lowland snow. Luckily, all we may get for Toliva is some light rain.
So how does all this breakdown for the race? The good news is that we’ll have wind for the start and a pretty favorable wind direction and wind strength all the way to Toliva Shoal. After Toliva, just as we go to the big ebb of the day, the wind will start to shift to the west and drop in speed. Here’s how it will break down.
1000 start SSW wind 8-15 knots. Downwind start!
1100-1200 Breeze holds from the SSW at 8-15 knots.
1200 A slightly stronger flow develops through the Chehalis Gap 10-18 knots of SW breeze from Johnson Pt to Toliva Shoal.
1300 SW 10-15 Anderson Isl to Toliva, Balch Passage to Devils Head becoming W to 10 knots Johnson Pt to Cooper Pt.
Navigators will want to start plotting wind direction and wind strength down the Strait of JdF, down Admiralty Inlet, and down the Sound as the onshore flow builds. This will weaken the flow through the Chehalis Gap.
1400 Wind Westerly 8-12 knots over the course.
1500 Wind westerly easing to 5-10 knots.
1600 Wind ENE 3-8 knots Toliva and Balch Passage. Wind westerly 4-8 knots Dana Passage to Finish. Convergence zone developing Balch to Johnson Pt.
1700 Wind ENE 3-6 knots Toliva to Devils H. Wind Westerly 3-6 knots Dana Pass to finish
1800-Time Limit: Wind light and variable over the course
Here’s where we roll the dice and break out the Meadow Point Marine/Sailish.Com Dart Board.
Who will finish and when:
Boat Toliva Shoal Finish
Riptide 1320hrs 2330hrs
J-133 1340hrs 2340hrs
J-120 1353hrs 0313hrs Sunday
J-35 1511hrs 0420hrs Sunday
White Squall 1600hrs 0530hrs Sunday
One forecast that is always 100% accurate is that the hospitality at OYC before and after the race will, as always, be exceptional. After the race, while the wind may be light on the race course, there will be plenty of hot air inside the clubhouse. 😊
For the delivery home on Sunday, the breeze will once again be from the south at 5-10 from 0700hrs and slowly build from that direction all day. By Sunday afternoon expect 15-20 knots from the south.
Over the weekend, the strongest breeze will be in the Eastern Strait of JdF and the San Juan Islands.
Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It is the last days of the Seattle Boat Show which closes tomorrow so don’t even think about going on Sunday, Weather looks great for either the indoor or outdoor venues, so enjoy. The best day for wind will be Sunday and as long as you’re not watching Super Bowl, it will be a nice pre-frontal day for sailing.
We are still experiencing a dryer and cooler than normal winter with only .84” of rain in the gauge compared to an average of 1.33”. Year to date we’ve only had 3.93” compared to an average of 7.11”. Don’t worry, there is still plenty of time to make up for this shortage. Plus in the upcoming week, we will also be getting another short shot of Canadian Cool around mid-week, so keep the woolies handy.
The surface analysis and sat pic for today show a beautiful low-pressure system with an attached front just ready to come ashore with cool, unstable air behind the front. This is significant as this may bring thundershowers to the area on Tuesday. Both also show the two weak fronts that will be coming ashore in California bringing more rain and snow to the Central Valley and Sierra Nevadas.
The only problem for the Winter Shaw Island Classic will be that while there may be enough wind to start, it is just going to get lighter over the course of the day. At least there won’t be much if any, rain. The rest of the Salish Sea will experience the same.
So more rain on Tuesday and then maybe by next weekend, Welcome to winter in the Salish Sea!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
