Author: Bruce Hedrick

Our mild fall weather will continue as the Pacific High (1030MB) now has a SW to NE orientation extending from roughly 37N 150W to 50N 135W. Combine this with a jet stream, whose flow is now meridional and coming ashore in southern Oregon, with a shift to the north as the week goes on and you can see how storm systems will be directed to the north of the Salish Sea. Once again we are so lucky to be living here, just look at the rain New York City is getting today. 3-4 months worth of rain happening in one day. Yikes!  

As a ridge of high-pressure rebuilds over our area, a northerly flow will develop and increase tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring a northerly breeze of 8-16 knots to the northern waters and central Sound. If you’re racing in the central Sound note that this is a northerly not NW flow. This will ease as an onshore flow brings a westerly breeze down the Strait of JdF starting early Saturday evening. The pressure gradient will ease early Sunday morning bringing light air to the area except in the southern part of the Strait of Georgia which will see NW breeze of 12-20 knots.

The other chart of interest is the 96hr 500MB chart which shows a distinct meridional flow around an upper-level high centered at 40N 135W. This will direct the jet stream well to the north coming ashore near Ketchikan. This will keep temperatures mild and the chance of rain fairly low for the Salish Sea for at least the next 10 days. We have a slightly elevated chance of rain for Monday as the remnants of a weak cold front drag over the area. After that, temps will start to rise.  

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Of course, everybody is talking about the rain that’s coming but is only part of the story. The real story will be next spring and summer because the drought we are in is simply not going to go away. So far this month we’ve had only .7” of rain compared to an average of 1.02”. For the year we are at 15.08” compared to an average of 22.81”. This will not improve much going into the fall and with the forecast of an El Niño winter, we can expect temperatures to be above normal and rainfall to be below normal. This will mean some rain in the spring, just enough to get the grasses and brush growing, and then with a dry late spring and early summer you have the perfect formula for an epic wildfire summer. Start planning now.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the Salish Sea protected by a weak ridge of high pressure but with an approaching cold front off the coast. This will give us a gale force pre-frontal SE breeze along the coast, the north end of Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juan Islands, and the Strait of Georgia.  The front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon after which breezes will ease over the area.

The Sunday morning surface forecast chart (48hr) shows a weak (1020MB) high-pressure system just east of the Cascades with an impressive 978MB low just off the coast moving in an NNE direction and projected to deepen to 964MB. This will be the strongest low to impact our weather since early last spring. Sunday will be a good day to think about adding some extra fenders to the boat and going to your winter mooring system. The wind won’t really start impacting our area until Sunday evening and into Monday morning with the strongest breeze occurring along the coast, in the north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juans, and the Strait of Georgia. The breeze will remain strong along the coast but will start to ease over the inland waters by late Monday afternoon.  

The upper-level charts (500MB) show the jet stream flow to be zonal until it is impacted by the coast when it takes a distinct turn to the NE. The flow becomes more zonal as the week goes on however it also continues to drift to the south which will bring more fall-like conditions to the Salish Sea. Just not an abundance of rain.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Our relatively boring weather will continue however the temps are cooling and there are some impressive low-pressure systems in the North Pacific. These systems and their attached frontal systems are beginning to impact our weather. This coming week the tail end of a cold front will drag over us on Monday. Whatever rain it brings will be light and won’t help our ongoing drought conditions.

We mentioned the tropics in the Atlantic last week and today I have attached a very colorful chart from the National Hurricane Center. There are now three major systems in the North Atlantic with Hurricane Lee poised to strike the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The other two systems will pose no threat to any land masses except perhaps Bermuda. This is because the upper-level airflow and the jet stream have become primarily zonal. This will prevent any of these tropical cyclones from reaching the continental US. This upper-level airflow is an extension of what is happening in the North Pacific with the jet stream moving slowly to the south and now coming ashore just north of Vancouver Island.

While we have spent the summer complaining about our weak and non-typical Pacific High, it is now finally starting to round up and deepen. By the 19^th of Sept, the high will be at 1031MB with a persistent lobe extending over the Pacific NW. This combination will continue to weaken storm systems as they approach our area. The 48hr Surface Chart shows a very strong low-pressure system (968MB) in the Gulf of Alaska which will produce hurricane-force winds for Kodiak Island. So, systems are getting stronger and eventually, they will reach our area however not until next weekend.

For wind this weekend you can expect the strongest breeze to be the westerlies in the Strait of JdF. Some of that will extend down the Sound on Saturday and become southwesterly in the San Juan Islands and Bellingham Bay. The breeze will continue in the Straits over the weekend however on Sunday conditions will be light over the central and south Sound.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

The days may be getting shorter and cooler; however, we are still very lucky to be living in this part of the world. As we said last week, watching the tropics for hurricane activity has certainly gotten very interesting and will continue to do so. Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic has been a primary example of the new norm when it comes to hurricanes in this time of Climate Change, with an amazing display of rapid intensification going from a Cat 1 on Wednesday to a Cat 5 last night before becoming a Cat 4 this morning. This is still a very powerful storm with no clear forecast path. It could very well impact New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

Today’s sat pic for the Pacific Northwest also captures Hurricane Jova well off the coast of Mexico. It is forecast to move over that belt of cooler water that has been protecting Hawaii and become a weaker Post Tropical Cyclone early next week with no impact on any land masses.

Our surface analysis chart for today shows that our weaker-than-normal Pacific High (1021-1023MB) has become even less organized. It is, however, just strong enough to weaken the next frontal system which will move over the Salish Sea Sunday night and into Monday morning.

The other interesting charts to look at are the 500MB, showing the upper-level flow and the jet stream. The combination of our weak ridge of high pressure and the jet stream will continue to direct storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska into SE Alaska. In the progression of charts, you can also see that the jet stream is inexorably moving south. This will allow more systems into our area as well as cooler temperatures. Just not any time in the near future.

The good news for this weekend will be that while the wind may be light, the sun will be out, and the temps will be pretty close to perfect. So, get out on the boat and enjoy the weekend. Even the long-range models show this pattern holding through the coming week and into next weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

We received some rainfall this week, which was much needed. The good news is that the red-flag areas in the Cascade Mountains received more rain than the Salish Sea. However, we only got slightly over ¼” of rain in August, compared to the average of just under one inch. For the year, we have received 14.38” of rain, while the average is 21.79”. Unfortunately, there is no rain expected for the next 10 days. However, the 96hr 500MB Chart indicates that the seasonal trend of the jet stream drifting south has started, which will allow for some storm systems to bring rain relief to our area.

Currently, the Pacific High is weak (1030MB) and elongated, which means it can be pushed around by low-pressure systems. This will allow a thermal trough to expand along our coast, which will move inland on Saturday as a weak weather system moves across the Salish Sea on Sunday. Although the 48-hour surface forecast chart shows a cold front headed our way, it is not strong enough to break through our coastal buffer zone.

In the Salish Sea, we can expect a weak ridge of high pressure to rebuild over the coastal waters on Labor Day, which will be pushed out by another weak system on Tuesday. Unfortunately, this means we can expect predominately light air racing in both Bellingham and Maple Bay with great parties on the docks. At least it won’t be raining!

As we mentioned last week the tropics are certainly getting interesting to watch especially as we enter the most active part of hurricane season. Idalia showed how fast a system can develop and become quite destructive, especially over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Today’s National Hurricane Center chart for the North Atlantic shows no less than five active systems with one more potentially developing off the coast of Africa. Of the five shown only Idalia hit land and none of the others look to pose any threat to North America.

Enjoy the last “official” weekend of summer. Be safe and be careful with those beach fires!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Our interesting weather will continue this weekend with possibly some rain and cooler temps coming mid-week. The Pacific High now extends from SE Alaska to almost Hawaii. It remains weak (1027MB) and in its oblong configuration will continue to be pushed around by a series of weak low-pressure systems coming across the Pacific. Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak thermally-induced low-pressure system with a trough that extends from SE Alaska to the California/Mexican border. This will produce a weak flow of offshore winds through Sunday afternoon. In addition to producing some fairly warm temps, this will also have the effect of drawing more smoke and haze from BC and Eastern WA into the Salish Sea.

There are two satellite pics today. One which shows the North Pacific and one that is just over the Salish Sea. The one showing the North Pacific is interesting because it shows the weak (1010-1013MB), surface low-pressure system off the Oregon coast as well as the cut-off, upper-level low-pressure system seen on the 500MB chart.  The sat pic over the Salish Sea shows the weak system that moved over us this morning and brought a trace of rain to the area. Clearing is now occurring over the Salish Sea and that will allow temps to rise the rest of the day and especially this weekend. The downside will be diminishing air quality which we are already seeing as the AQI numbers for Seattle are already just under 100.

For wind this Saturday, the pressure gradient will ease however with the higher pressure inland over Southern BC this will produce 10-20knts of northerly over the central Sound and a lighter breeze over the rest of the Salish Sea.  Sunday onshore breeze will start to fill down the Strait of JdF bringing westerly winds of 15-25 knots. This breeze will stay in the Straits.

As we get closer to September, the tropics will also be getting more interesting as hurricane activity seems to be increasing in the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Pacific.

Enjoy the weekend!  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

If you thought this summer’s weather was a little on the crazy side, you better fasten your seatbelt because this coming week could be a very interesting ride. As if what happened to our friends on Maui wasn’t bad enough, northern Baja and Southern California could be next on the weather hit list with Hurricane Hilary potentially making landfall in Northern Baja and then entering the US. Note on today’s surface chart that Hilary is a Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 125 knots and gusts to 150 knots. Hilary will weaken as it travels north but it will still be a significant storm when it makes landfall. Not to mention what else is happening around the rest of the US with more high temperatures, unseasonal rain, and flash flooding. Pick your poison. Once again, the Pacific Northwest will be experiencing “normal” summer temps and no rainfall. Pretty much a perfect time to go cruising and if you look at the AIS charts, many of you are doing exactly that.

Our Pacific high is still weak (1033MB) and still centered just slightly to the west of where it should be at about 48N and 150W. We also still have a trough of thermal low pressure on the other side of the Cascades which is giving us an onshore flow prompting a Red Flag warning for critical fire danger for Eastern Washington. As this trough shifts to the east on Saturday this will bring a northerly flow to the Eastern side of the San Juan Islands and Central Puget Sound. The Strait of Georgia will experience a strong NW breeze Saturday night and into Sunday. The Strait of JdF will be uncharacteristically light until early Saturday evening when 15-20 knots of westerly will develop.

By Sunday the gradient will ease over the US part of the Salish Sea while the breeze will continue in the Strait of Georgia. By late Sunday afternoon, another shot of strong westerly will fill down the Strait of JdF. On Monday a weak low-pressure system (1010MB) will drift over the north end of Vancouver Island with an attached frontal system that will extend down into western Washington and Oregon. While it may show as a cold front, don’t expect any cool temps or rainfall. This low won’t move very far or very fast because of a stationary upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the north end of Haida Gwai, while the jet stream has once again migrated well up into Alaska. By Tuesday this cut-off low will have drifted to SE and will be over the north end of Vancouver Island.

This will make for some great weather for us and some interesting weather to watch over the coming week.

Enjoy your time on the water!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Our weak Pacific High has split because of a series of weak low-pressure systems drifting across the mid-Pacific. The high closest to the West Coast is only 1024MB while the low-pressure systems are 1010 to 1016MB.  Plus we still have a thermal low over the Central Valley of California with a thermal trough extending well into Canada. All of these factors combine to produce the same wind pattern we’ve been enjoying for the last month with light air in the morning and then a building northerly in the afternoon as the onshore flow comes down the Strait of JdF. The Strait will be the place where we have the most wind again this weekend. In other words, perfect weather for powerboating or hydroplane racing will prevail over the rest of the Salish Sea.

The slight twist for this weekend is something you can see in today’s satellite picture with the monsoonal moisture from the four corners area in our SW that has worked its way north and into Montana and the rest of the Rocky Mountain States. Some of that instability and moisture may work their way into Eastern Washington Saturday night and Sunday morning with the potential for some light rain and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and very dry vegetation are not a good combination this time of the year.

That weak low-pressure system has a cold front that may brush the outer coastal waters late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Our best chance for some moisture may occur Tuesday afternoon or early evening as a slightly stronger system moves into our area. It won’t last and by next weekend we will be back to our great weather.

The other features of note this weekend are the 500MB charts which are showing that the jet stream is finally starting to move south and by 8 Aug the jet stream will be coming ashore at about 52N. This is what may allow more storm systems into our area, just not in the immediate future.

Enjoy the weekend!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

While in the rest of the US, almost 200 million people are under a heat advisory, flood warning, or watch, the Pacific NW is having a very average summer and we are so lucky. As of today, heat is now the number one weather-related cause of death in the US. The area bordering the Salish Sea may be an expensive place to live, however, I think it’s worth it.

The overall weather setup hasn’t changed much since last week with the Pacific High still a little on the weak side with a lobe extending from its center at 42N 158W towards the NE. We now have a trough of low pressure that runs from Alaska to the Mexican Border with a thermal low centered over the Central Valley of California. In the upper atmosphere, we still have a weak, upper-level low just off the north end of Vancouver Island. Since the jet stream is still up in Alaska, there is nothing to push this around and no way for storm systems to make it into the Pacific NW.

For boaters, the forecast is just about perfect as long as you aren’t going to be in the Strait of JdF in the afternoons and early evenings where you will find small craft advisories and maybe gale warnings. If you’re cruising in the San Juan Islands some of the breeze from the Straits will spill into that area, however, it won’t be strong except along the south side of San Juan and Lopez Islands.

In the Sound, breezes will be light and sunshine abundant. Use the sunblock!

Have a great weekend.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

As I said last week, don’t tell your friends who live outside of the Pacific NW about the summer we are having out here. It’s great, so far, and we are still very lucky. The biggest problem will be how many more days without rain we’ll have and just how dry our forests and grasslands will become.

Our weather pattern just isn’t changing. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t some interesting features popping up in the sat pic and 500MB Charts.

Let’s start with today’s sat pic. Absolutely crystal clear over the Pacific NW with a marine layer along the coast. Then directly west of our coast, you can see the next cold front which will brush over us late Monday and early Tuesday. Well off of the coast of Cabo San Lucas, you can see Tropical Depression Four-E which will bother no one, it’s just interesting to have this much activity this early in hurricane season.

In the 500MB charts, we have a very interesting situation with today’s chart showing an upper-level cut-off low-pressure system directly west of central Vancouver Island with the main jet stream well north in Alaska. The 25 July 500MB chart is even more interesting as this upper-level low splits and still hasn’t moved very far. This is the primary reason our weather is so moderate.

Today’s surface chart shows a weak complex of high-pressure systems extending from our area off to the SW and then to the major (1037MB) high-pressure system well to the west of where it should be. Then inland from the coast, we have a series of thermal low-pressure troughs running from Mexico north to BC. This will keep the heat dome over the southern USA, with the possibility of more heavy rain and flash flooding in the NE USA, a big bummer.

For boaters in the Salish Sea, we will have another spectacular weekend with light air over the Sound in the morning. Once again as the day wears on, a strong westerly will fill down the Strait of JdF in the afternoon and eventually it will fill down Admiralty Inlet and the Central Sound. In the Straits, we could have small craft advisories with the possibility of gale warnings.

Enjoy this weather, use sunblock, be careful, and remember that the water is still very cool, not exactly swimmable without a wet suit.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)