The days may be getting shorter and cooler; however, we are still very lucky to be living in this part of the world. As we said last week, watching the tropics for hurricane activity has certainly gotten very interesting and will continue to do so. Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic has been a primary example of the new norm when it comes to hurricanes in this time of Climate Change, with an amazing display of rapid intensification going from a Cat 1 on Wednesday to a Cat 5 last night before becoming a Cat 4 this morning. This is still a very powerful storm with no clear forecast path. It could very well impact New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
Today’s sat pic for the Pacific Northwest also captures Hurricane Jova well off the coast of Mexico. It is forecast to move over that belt of cooler water that has been protecting Hawaii and become a weaker Post Tropical Cyclone early next week with no impact on any land masses.
Our surface analysis chart for today shows that our weaker-than-normal Pacific High (1021-1023MB) has become even less organized. It is, however, just strong enough to weaken the next frontal system which will move over the Salish Sea Sunday night and into Monday morning.
The other interesting charts to look at are the 500MB, showing the upper-level flow and the jet stream. The combination of our weak ridge of high pressure and the jet stream will continue to direct storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska into SE Alaska. In the progression of charts, you can also see that the jet stream is inexorably moving south. This will allow more systems into our area as well as cooler temperatures. Just not any time in the near future.
The good news for this weekend will be that while the wind may be light, the sun will be out, and the temps will be pretty close to perfect. So, get out on the boat and enjoy the weekend. Even the long-range models show this pattern holding through the coming week and into next weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)