Of course, everybody is talking about the rain that’s coming but is only part of the story. The real story will be next spring and summer because the drought we are in is simply not going to go away. So far this month we’ve had only .7” of rain compared to an average of 1.02”. For the year we are at 15.08” compared to an average of 22.81”. This will not improve much going into the fall and with the forecast of an El Niño winter, we can expect temperatures to be above normal and rainfall to be below normal. This will mean some rain in the spring, just enough to get the grasses and brush growing, and then with a dry late spring and early summer you have the perfect formula for an epic wildfire summer. Start planning now.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the Salish Sea protected by a weak ridge of high pressure but with an approaching cold front off the coast. This will give us a gale force pre-frontal SE breeze along the coast, the north end of Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juan Islands, and the Strait of Georgia. The front will pass through the area Saturday afternoon after which breezes will ease over the area.
The Sunday morning surface forecast chart (48hr) shows a weak (1020MB) high-pressure system just east of the Cascades with an impressive 978MB low just off the coast moving in an NNE direction and projected to deepen to 964MB. This will be the strongest low to impact our weather since early last spring. Sunday will be a good day to think about adding some extra fenders to the boat and going to your winter mooring system. The wind won’t really start impacting our area until Sunday evening and into Monday morning with the strongest breeze occurring along the coast, in the north Sound, Admiralty Inlet, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juans, and the Strait of Georgia. The breeze will remain strong along the coast but will start to ease over the inland waters by late Monday afternoon.
The upper-level charts (500MB) show the jet stream flow to be zonal until it is impacted by the coast when it takes a distinct turn to the NE. The flow becomes more zonal as the week goes on however it also continues to drift to the south which will bring more fall-like conditions to the Salish Sea. Just not an abundance of rain.
Enjoy the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)