If you thought this summer’s weather was a little on the crazy side, you better fasten your seatbelt because this coming week could be a very interesting ride. As if what happened to our friends on Maui wasn’t bad enough, northern Baja and Southern California could be next on the weather hit list with Hurricane Hilary potentially making landfall in Northern Baja and then entering the US. Note on today’s surface chart that Hilary is a Cat 4 storm with sustained winds of 125 knots and gusts to 150 knots. Hilary will weaken as it travels north but it will still be a significant storm when it makes landfall. Not to mention what else is happening around the rest of the US with more high temperatures, unseasonal rain, and flash flooding. Pick your poison. Once again, the Pacific Northwest will be experiencing “normal” summer temps and no rainfall. Pretty much a perfect time to go cruising and if you look at the AIS charts, many of you are doing exactly that.
Our Pacific high is still weak (1033MB) and still centered just slightly to the west of where it should be at about 48N and 150W. We also still have a trough of thermal low pressure on the other side of the Cascades which is giving us an onshore flow prompting a Red Flag warning for critical fire danger for Eastern Washington. As this trough shifts to the east on Saturday this will bring a northerly flow to the Eastern side of the San Juan Islands and Central Puget Sound. The Strait of Georgia will experience a strong NW breeze Saturday night and into Sunday. The Strait of JdF will be uncharacteristically light until early Saturday evening when 15-20 knots of westerly will develop.
By Sunday the gradient will ease over the US part of the Salish Sea while the breeze will continue in the Strait of Georgia. By late Sunday afternoon, another shot of strong westerly will fill down the Strait of JdF. On Monday a weak low-pressure system (1010MB) will drift over the north end of Vancouver Island with an attached frontal system that will extend down into western Washington and Oregon. While it may show as a cold front, don’t expect any cool temps or rainfall. This low won’t move very far or very fast because of a stationary upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the north end of Haida Gwai, while the jet stream has once again migrated well up into Alaska. By Tuesday this cut-off low will have drifted to SE and will be over the north end of Vancouver Island.
This will make for some great weather for us and some interesting weather to watch over the coming week.
Enjoy your time on the water!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)