Author: Bruce Hedrick

Nine Low Pressure Systems Vying in the Pacific

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Nine Low Pressure Systems Vying in the Pacific

We are clearly transitioning into fall as evidenced by the leaves on the trees turning and the evening temps getting decidedly cooler. While it is the last weekend in September we still have two more months of hurricane season and Hurricane Rosa is now a Cat 4 storm aiming to come ashore in the northern part of Baja late Monday or early Tuesday. It won’t be a Cat 4 or even a hurricane when it does arrive however it will bring some wind and plenty of rain.

Then we also have Tropical Storm Kirk in the Atlantic headed into the Caribbean with plenty of time for more systems to form off of Africa with conditions being very favorable. So we shall see.

For the Pacific Northwest the surface chart for Saturday is very interesting with NINE low-pressure systems (counting Rosa) dominating the weather from Mexico to Alaska and out to the mid-Pacific. There is also that one 1039MB High in BC which is fairly strong and will be sending light NE breezes into the Strait of Georgia, Strait of JdF, and northern Puget Sound on Saturday. The rest of the Sound will be light and variable as a weak frontal system makes it way onshore late Saturday or early Sunday. This will bring pre-frontal conditions (ESE wind 5-12knots) to the eastern Strait of JdF and light conditions over the rest of Sound.

Next weekend we’ll have a more definitive forecast for the Foulweather Bluff Race out of Edmonds which, as always, will be a great event.

Enjoy this weekend and spend some time out on the water.

Bruce’s Brief for September 21-23 and the Northwest Harvest Benefit Race

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Bruce’s Brief for September 21-23 and the Northwest Harvest Benefit Race
A radar look at the North Pacific

How appropriate is it that tomorrow, the first day of fall or the autumnal equinox, will have somewhat wet and blustery conditions. I don’t know about you but my garden could certainly use some rain.

The surface analysis chart and the current satellite image shows what is happening now with a front off the coast making its approach and pushing a weak group of high-pressure systems out of the Northwest. This will result in pre-frontal conditions over the Salish Sea today meaning 15-20 knots of southeasterly over the central Sound and lighter conditions in the Straits. Frontal passage should occur late this afternoon or early evening. The post frontal conditions will bring a strong onshore flow developing early Saturday. This will result in strong southerly breeze (15-25 knots) over the inland waters in the morning hours on Saturday which will ease after about mid-day. Conditions in the Straits will remain light until the onshore flow develops down the Straits which should occur near dawn on Saturday and hold through the day. This will bring 15-25 knots of westerly down the Straits and this will create a classic Puget Sound convergence zone to develop from Everett north about mid-day on Saturday.

Click any image to enlarge.

This scenario may create some consternation for the NW Harvest Race as the breeze will start from the south at 12-15, clock to the southwest at 10-12, shift to the northeast at 5-10, then back to the north at 5-8 by late afternoon. This will keep skippers and tacticians very busy and this would be a good time for skippers to remember to not get too frustrated by watching windex. The tactician should be watching the windex because that will tell you about the next shift, the skipper or driver should be watching the lower telltales on the sails and steering to those because that is where you have the greatest amount of sail area. Drivers drive and tacticians do tactics.

It’s a great event for a great cause and is always a ton of fun especially the post race party and auction. Have fun, stay warm, and try to stay dry.

Oh yeah, after the post frontal on Saturday, the gradient will ease bringing light air to the region for Sunday. You can also see by the surface chart for Tuesday that the next front will be slightly stronger. It’s time to start thinking about the winter configuration of your mooring lines, chafe gear, and maybe getting that headsail off the furler and into sailmaker for some fall touch ups. No freezing weather on the horizon but you may want to think about that as well.

Bruce’s Brief for September 14-16, Transition in the Air

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Bruce’s Brief for September 14-16, Transition in the Air

Clearly, it has been a week of transition as we move inexorably closer to fall. We still have a medium strength high (1031MB) in the mid-Pacific and two very weak low-pressure (1013MB) systems off the coast to the northwest of us. This will result in a weak onshore flow over the weekend. By Sunday we’ll have a weak frontal system off the coast which will bring pre-frontal conditions to the Salish Sea and perhaps some rain by Sunday night into Monday.

Click any image to enlarge.

For boaters on Saturday, this pattern will mean 10-12 knots of southerly for the central and south Sound and very light conditions for the eastern and central Straits. Sunday the wind strength will be about the same but from the southeast as the next front approaches. In the morning hours, the SE breeze will be up to 15-20 knots in the northern part of Admiralty Inlet and the eastern part of the Straits. As this weak front approaches expect the breeze to ease over the entire area.

As always, check the VHF weather radio for conditions along your route before you leave. It’s the time of year where conditions can change rapidly.

Bruce’s Brief for September 7-9

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Bruce’s Brief for September 7-9
Click to enlarge image.

Yeah, it’s getting cooler and cloudier but no reason to give up on boating yet. When you look at the Sat pictures for today you’ll see that there simply isn’t much moisture in the system for this weekend. Scattered drizzle at best. The good news for sailors is that we’ll have wind in the Center Sound for both days. The bad news is that if the boat is still up in the Gulf or San Juan Islands the trip back might get a little rough, especially on Sunday when the next front approaches.

 

 

 

 

Click to enlarge.

You can see from the charts that we’ll have a frontal system that will move into the area tonight and then weaken by Saturday morning. This will be followed by a weak onshore post-frontal flow through the day on Saturday. Another front will approach the coast on Sunday and move inland Sunday night. This will create a strong pre-frontal flow of southeasterly wind over the area especially from Point No Point north into the San Juan and Gulf Islands. The central and south Sound will see 10-15 knot south-southeasterly wind most of the day. In other words, great sailing!

The Tuesday (11 Sept Chart) has a number of interesting features the primary one being a medium strength low (988MB) in the central Pacific which will have the effect of further degrading what is left of the Pacific High. This will have the added effect of driving Hurricane Olivia on a course that is slightly south of due west and putting the Hawaiian Islands squarely in the crosshairs. As if they haven’t had enough rain already this year and then there’s yet another Tropical depression forming right astern of Olivia which will probably follow a similar path. The problem will continue to be that the jet stream is well north over the Pacific and that 550MB Upper level low will remain a cutoff Low-Pressure system that won’t move very fast. See the 11 Sept 500MB chart.

Fall is definitely approaching at least it won’t really rain until after the weekend!

Enjoy and be safe.

Bruce’s Brief for August 31-September 4

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Bruce’s Brief for August 31-September 4

Finally the weather in the NW will trend back towards “normal”. Whatever that is. The good news is that we’re going to have a very weak set of weather systems sweep over the top of us and this will keep the cloud cover and onshore flow in place as well as keep the smoke from coming in again.

The interesting feature in the charts this week is the Pacific High which over the course of the next four days will continue to weaken from 1033MB down to 1026MB and will go from round to a more flattened high-pressure system as these weak low-pressure systems continue to degrade it.

As I said, this will keep the onshore flow in place which will have the usual effect of creating strong westerlies in the central and eastern part of the Straits of JdF for this evening and into tomorrow. This will ease over the weekend making the trip home from the San Juans or Gulf Islands a nice voyage.

For Sunday morning expect light breeze from the west in the Straits which will become southerly in the northern inland waters and northerly in Admiralty Inlet and Puget Sound. Monday morning will have a northwesterly flow come down the Strait of Georgia and then fill down into Admiralty Inlet and Puget Sound. The Strait of Georgia will have slightly more wind than the rest of the Salish Sea, 15-18 knots compared to 5-10 for Puget Sound.

Here’s Hanalei Valley on Kauai, where a ton of rain took its toll.Have a great Labor Day Weekend and as always, check the VHF weather for conditions along your intended route.

Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 24, 25, & 26 August and a Smoke Update

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Bruce’s Briefs: Weather for 24, 25, & 26 August and a Smoke Update
Western Wildfires

We’ve probably all had enough of this smoke. Unfortunately, it’s not really going to change for a while. Today’s surface chart shows the reason for this with a strengthening offshore high-pressure system (1034MB building to 1037MB) centered off of the mid-Oregon coast and a weak thermal low-pressure system (1007MB) over eastern BC, Washington, and Oregon with the Salish Sea sandwiched in between. This will give us an onshore flow which will persist over the weekend. Giving us the usual strong flow down the Straits resulting in small craft advisories for the central and eastern Straits for this evening and into Saturday but not much further.

 

Click any image to enlarge.

The stronger onshore flow while north-northwesterly off the coast will still be directly onshore along the coast resulting in light southerlies in the central and southern Puget Sound along the surface while the upper winds will remain from the north. This will continue to bring smoke into the Sound from British Columbia from a number forest fires that continue to burn from the north end of Vancouver Island all across BC, just take a look at the chart of current fires.

For a while this week we were hoping that a frontal system attached to a low in the Gulf of Alaska would make its way into the area Saturday and Sunday. While there may be some cloudy conditions there won’t be much, if any, rain as that front is rapidly disintegrating. See the satellite picture.

Overall, we’ll have cooler temperatures and some smoky haze however it probably won’t be as bad as earlier in the week. Don’t let that stop you from boating, it’s still summer and with school starting way too soon (for some) that will have the effect of curtailing some boating. The long-range forecast is for a lovely Indian Summer which is just about perfect boating weather and you’ll have the anchorages all to yourself.

Enjoy!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, and 19 Aug. Anacortes YC Northern Century Race

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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, and 19 Aug. Anacortes YC Northern Century Race

Our very strange weather continues and I think we are glad we don’t live in California, the Midwest, the South, or the East Coast. My impression is that they are really ready for this summer to end. Still, lots of fires in BC so the smoke and haze are going to be with us for a while. This is because as you can see from charts we have a 1031MB high which is not very strong but then again there is really no jet stream to push it around, just an out of season low-pressure system with an attached front that will impact the Pacific NW about next Wednesday or Thursday.

We also have a weak low-pressure system on the other side of the Cascades which give us a weak onshore flow with a breezy westerly in the Straits late this afternoon and into the evening. This flow will become a southerly through the San Juan Islands and into the southern Strait of Georgia. Unfortunately, it won’t be breezy for the Northern Century, then again, what else is new. The interesting feature is that around midnight tonight, the onshore flow will kick in and start coming south into the Strait of Georgia resulting in a northerly just about the time the first boats should be getting to the top mark. This northerly will continue into Sunday because of higher pressure in BC and lower pressure to the south.

Unfortunately, after about 0200 hours Saturday morning, the onshore flow will ease and the breeze will become very light in the San Juan Islands. The real challenge will be to see if anyone tries to take the shortcut south through San Juan Channel since slack at the south end is at around 0600 hours. Right now I have the SC-50 making it to Turn Rock at 0530 hours which would be cutting it a little close since the wind is going to glass off right around then which will mean waiting out the flood until around 1300 hours. The next wind coming down the Straits of JdF will show up about mid-afternoon on Saturday which depending on the pressure gradient from Forks to Bellingham may be slowed when the ebb starts to roll about 1500 hours. Luckily, when the wind does finally come down the Straits, it will last until about midnight Saturday which should get most folks across the finish line. As always, a very challenging race in a very beautiful part of the world.

For the rest of the Pacific Northwest, it will be pretty much a perfect weekend to own a powerboat. Have a great time, and be safe.

 

Pacific Cup – A Very Big Challenge for a Big Northwest Fleet

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Pacific Cup – A Very Big Challenge for a Big Northwest Fleet
The Santa Cruz 27 Zipper

There’s a large, talented contingent of PNW boats entered in this year’s Pacific Cup Race from the SF Bay area to Hawaii. Three of the boats, Alternate Reality, Gusto and Zipper, started a couple days ago. Several more were starting midday today, including Poke and Destroy, Shearwater and Zaff. I’ll give them a day to get out on the racecourse proper, then do an update. In the meantime, Bruce Hedrick has provided a weather outlook for a race that promises to be anything but simple. -KH

Kurt and I were wondering about how to deal with the plethora of questions that you have sent in so we decided I should provide an overview specific to this year’s event. I will try to get you some insight into what will surely be a very challenging event.

We love the Pacific Cup for a couple of very specific reasons. 1. It’s the shortest race to Hawaii. 2. You end up in Kaneohe Bay, a way better place than Maui or Honolulu. 3. They stagger the start so you start at the same point in the ebb out of San Francisco Bay and you only beat for a very short time (about 45 minutes in a “normal” year) before you start reaching for the Mai-tai’s. 4. They have a great pre-race prep program conducted by veterans. 5. The pre-race and post race parties are absolutely the best. 6. For boats from the Pacific NW, you usually break everything on the delivery south to SF so the first couple of days of the race are “We’ve been there and broken that.”

Since they instituted the staggered start, things have gotten more interesting and I think, for the most part, it has made the race more interesting. Over time it has shown that sometimes you roll the dice about the staggered start and sometimes the dice roll you. This year will be no different as the first starters on Monday left in probably more northwesterly than they wanted, 20-25 with higher gusts. They started with breeze, and are continuing to enjoy reaching in a solid 15-20 knots of North-Northwesterly. The folks that will be starting today will be starting in much less wind and it will continue to recede in front of them. The Thursday and Friday starters are going to be well and truly hosed as a low-pressure system over central California will move offshore and sit right over the big big boats. All the while the early starters will be cranking right along towards the Islands.

According to the tracker there are two very distinct camps with some very respected veterans going very different ways. The problem these folks are trying to solve will start to show up show up tomorrow in the form of an upper level low-pressure system that will set up shop right over the rhumbline. This will create a very large patch of light air and woe be the boats that get caught in that. This is where the navigators will earn their money as they decide to go over the top of this light air death trap or sail underneath it.

Let’s start with the basics. Whatever race you do to Hawaii, you always have to deal with the Pacific High which is the dominant weather feature of the North Pacific in the summer months. There is no wind in the center of the high so we always try to avoid that. The general rule of thumb is always try to keep 4MB of pressure between you and the center of the high to avoid becoming becalmed. Look at the Surface Analysis for July 11th. The high is centered at about 42N, 143W and is not particularly strong at 1035MB. It is also not round so between those two features, shape and center pressure, it is not going to be very stable and will be susceptible to being pushed around by the low pressure systems you see over central California and the North Pacific. We would really like to see the Pacific High be round with a center pressure around 1040MB. You would also like to sail the shortest possible distance, the great circle route which usually takes you way too close to the Pacific High and light air. The key is how you balance the extra distance sailed with how much wind you’ll have, always a challenge.

Click to enlarge

The other key feature to watch is the distance between the isobars around the high. The closer they are together, the more wind you will have in that area. Note off the Oregon coast how tight the isobars are and the word Gale! Note also that the spacing between the 1016MB line and the 1020MB line and the 1028 and 1024Mb line is greater than the spacing between the 1020 and 1024MB lines. This will mean more wind between 1020 and 1024MB lines. At least for today.

Now go to the 12 July surface forecast chart and you’ll see that 1008MB low pressure system is moving slowly offshore right over SF Bay. This will bring light air and from the wrong direction, we are not supposed to beat to Hawaii and gentlemen only sail downwind. The gap between the 1016 and 1020MB and 1020 and 1024MB has increased meaning less wind in this area while the gap between 1024 and 1028MB has decreased which should more wind on the north side of the course. The surface forecast chart for 13 July is even more depressing for the late starters as the low has weakened from 1008MB to 1014MB and expanded in area meaning light and variable wind as the racers try to get away from the coast. First person to 130W wins. The Pacific High is also being pushed around by the fronts coming off of the two low pressure systems to the north and northwest of the 1035MB center of the high. The other interesting feature of the high are the two weaker lobes, one to the north and one to the west. Eventually the 1035 high will absorb these two lobes and the high try’s to get back to being round. Note also the gap in the isobars over the race course, less wind in the south, more wind in the north.

The surface forecast chart for 15 July will bring smiles to everyone on the course. The gap between the isobars is almost identical and when that happens the wind is basically the same over the course and those who sail the shortest possible distance will be the victors.

The sailors who handle the transition the best from today to the 15th will be the overall winners and right now I think it will be some one from the first group that started and that sailed the north course. Just my guess.

As always, if you have questions or comments, fire away. This is going to be a fun one to watch. I’ll update on Friday.

 

Bruce’s Brief, Vic-Maui Update and the start of PAC Cup.

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I guess the good news is that the entire Vic-Maui Fleet has committed to the Great Circle Route and have (wisely) decided to follow Brad Baker on Firefly. The bad news is that as we pointed out last week, the high has built to 1039MB, we said 1040, and it is centered well west at 161degrees W, we said 160, and instead of a 28MB spread from the center of the high to the Islands it’s only 24MB. That is still plenty. The problem will be that between the Pacific High and the coast are persistent troughs of low-pressure off the coast and a very weak ridge of high pressure along the coast. This has created some very breezy conditions north of the Bay Area and will impact the starts of Pacific Cup but only for the first couple of days of the race. After that, it appears there will be a nice band of wind to get south and get set up for the final approach to the Islands. Navigators will really earn their keep this year as from about 140W to 155W there will be unsettled areas of light air.

The Vic-Maui Racers have a more complex problem. They’ve all committed to sailing the shortest possible route which will take them into a large area of light air by the 10th of July. This caused by the fact that the jet stream is simply not around this summer. By the 8th to the 10th of July it make dip as far south as the Aleutians, otherwise, there is nothing to really push the these weather systems around.

For the Pacific NW our mild summer will continue with an unusually strong southerly breeze off the coast today which will diminish as this trough pushes through. Onshore flow will build behind this trough creating strong westerlies in the central Straits. Wind over the rest of the area will remain light and variable. You should still check the VHF weather readings and log the barometer before you head out on any cruise. Just be the prudent mariner.

Enjoy the weekend!

Ed. Note: I’m coming back from a terrestrial vacation in WI. Lots of news to catch up on and put out there on sailish.com. For example, once again Hanne Weaver is the US Singlehanded Women’s Champ! And Firefly and Joy Ride are going at it hard. -KH

Bruce’s Brief for Tough Vic Maui Start

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Bruce’s Brief for Tough Vic Maui Start

This will be a fast start for the Vic-Maui group and will have the effect of quickly sorting out who’s ready and who’s not. There will be strong onshore flow with 25-30 knots of westerly coming down the Straits tomorrow. You could see 12-18 in the starting area building to 15-20+ at Race Rocks. Combined with a five knot ebb in Race Passage, seas will be quite lumpy taking a toll on boats and crews. The wind will ease slightly after Clallam Bay only to build again from the NW once you clear Cape Flattery. The course out will be just like sailing a Swiftsure. With the big ebb and plenty of time to make it through the Race, it will pay to sail the short course. After the Race head to the US side and beat your way out the Straits. At Cape Flattery you’ll want to hold a course that will get you offshore and away from area of light air that develops along the coast after sunset.

As you can see from the surface charts, the Pacific High is building nicely but note the low pushing across from the west. This will provide a challenge to navigators who most certainly will be trying to get south as fast as possible but then trying to figure out how to avoid beating while still getting to the west and into a strong area of tail winds that should hold all the way to the Islands as this high will continue build and stabilize. How much? This high could be a 1040MB monster centering at 40N and 160W. This would provide a 28MB gradient difference from the center of the High to the Islands. Plenty of breeze and plenty of squall action. This will keep crews plenty busy keeping spinnakers, halyards, sheets and guys intact.

Good luck, stay safe and enjoy what will certainly be a great adventure.

(Ed. Note I’m off in the Midwest right now and I’ve got limited leeway to get things posted. I’ll be back in about a week and will catch up with both Vic-Maui and Pacific Cup. -KH)