Firefly was first to finish in this year’s Vic-Maui Race. I don’t have an official time yet, but the tracker says it all. Indications are Joy Ride will finish a couple hours later and correct to first overall. Congratulations to Bob Strong and his crew, and to the navigator and my friend Brad Baker, who I gotta say seems to own this race.
Here’s Brad’s last report, a somewhat wistful look as the final hours of the race approached and a doff of the hat to the competition:
Well, we are under 24 hours and are pushing hard. We have the 2S up and are up as high as she will go, also flying the staysail. If Joyride is going to beat us, they are going to have to keep pushing. And it does look as though they will beat us. But as Stu so aptly put it the other night, “It aint over until the fat lady sings”. So we push.
The last 48 hours have been splendid sailing. We’ve been in the trades sailing in winds ranging from 13 knots to 23 knots. Because of our odd route this time around, we are much hotter coming in to Maui then in years past. Except the year I did it on Voodoo Child #1 where we had a similar approach towards the end. We are much further north and west of where you would typically approach from. This comes, as I said, from the atypical route we took. It was a very different year from my years past. The high pressure moved well west of where it would normally be and the quickest route ended up being west of great circle. It’s been challenging, and because of that fun from a navigator’s standpoint. It was much later in the race this time round where my choices became limited and you must basically sail to Hawaii. That said, there are still choices to be made. Choices like what sail to have up.
As I mentioned earlier we have the 2S. This is a big running sail. When we put it up the winds were lifted and lighter. Now its consistently blowing over 20 knots and we are headed a bit. We are going fast, but sailing lower then where we want/need to go. In other words, we are going to have to make a change soon. We will likely go to 5S, a “reachier,” smaller kite, and see if we can point to where we need to go. If not then the call will likely be to go to the Code 0, an even smaller much reachier sail. Hopefully it won’t come to that.
It’s interesting, we haven’t had a lot of the normal talk about food and drinks etc. I do have to admit my watch, the b-team, did have a discussion on what drinks we were going to have. My choice is a margarita blended. Actually, I’ll take whatever they are serving at the party! It will be interesting to see the reactions of the newbies, often times the finish can be an odd thing. You have come together as a team, and it ends. It can be quite a letdown. That’s why having the party in Lahaina is so important. It tends to soften the blow of having done the race and the feeling of emptiness that can follow. It typically doesn’t last that long though and normalcy returns. Me personally, I am looking forward to the finish, I just we had a couple more days to put some more miles on Joyride! They have done a nice job and stayed in the game. My hat goes off to them win or lose.
I don’t know that I will blog again before the finish. Current ETA is to finish perhaps at 6am or do local time. I actually have to give it a look and come up with and ETA for the race organizers. I’ll give it some serious thought and analysis and will come up with our official ETA which I have to report at the next roll call. Thank you to all the folks out there that are sharing this experience with us. We have some great Drone footage that will get posted after we arrive. Stay tuned!
–Brad
Update: This is one way to celebrate first to finish:
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
The Vic-Maui fleet is finally, blissfully high-tailing it for Hawaii. The tradewinds have kicked in and the postcard conditions have appeared. Firefly and Joy Ride will be concluding their duel sometime tomorrow, and by the looks of things Firefly is extending her lead a bit and will get the elapsed time gun, but Joy Ride will correct on top. Time will tell whether Salient out to the west or Kraken on the rhumb line will win the Beneteau 40.7 battle. Here’s David Sutcliffe’s weather summary that appeared on the VM website:
The Weather Eye, July 12 – Drag Racin’ in the Trade Winds
by David Sutcliffe, July 12th, 2018
Amazingly, after sailing for 1600-2100 nautical miles and through a series of complex weather systems and transitions, the fleet are all on very similar final approach lines. That in itself is a bit unusual. A more normal situation would be for boats to be converging into the finish from a wider range of laylines and optimal gybe angles.
July 12, 0900 HST – a normal summer pattern prevails over the Northeast Pacific Ocean
So, it’s a lot simpler now, right? In one word, yes!
The longer answer is that the boats are each on their own line to the Pailolo Channel which separates Maui and Molokai. That line was pretty much determined for each boat by how and where they managed to navigate through the low wind area associated with the ridge/plateau that extended East of the High, and into the actual Trade Winds. The lines are more similar than different.
At the macro level, the expected conditions from here to the finish are Trade Winds blowing from 075-090 degrees True at 13 – 18 knots of True Wind Speed, sustained, with higher speeds in gusts or squalls.
Now, it is a simpler mode of optimum boat speed in the desired direction. This is known as Velocity Made Good on Course – VMC, rather than Velocity Made Good – VMG which is relative to the wind. For boats that are inside their own optimum laylines to the Finish, gybing with squalls or changes in wind direction or speed will help optimize VMC.
As the boats are all on a similar approach line, and the macro weather picture is stable, it looks like the last stretch will be a raw speed drag race.
July 12, 0900 HST – a drag race in the Trade Winds to the Finish!
But, there’s always a few more things to think about … the islands of Maui and Molokini, and the Pailolo Channel between them, bend and funnel the Trade Winds. Plus, the Finish line is near the leeward side of the island of Maui. To finish well, the boats should be paying close attention to how they get in the channel and across the finish line.
One eye on the weather!
Caveat: this article and images are presented for informational purposes – they are not predictions of or advice to any boat regarding weather or routing!
Also, for those who aren’t on (or don’t obsessively monitor) Facebook, a couple of posts:
Firefly Blog post #8 &/12/18
We are down to the wire and it is clear that we are in a race! Joy Ride is a little north and east of us but the wind has picked up and we are both moving along well. Whereas we didn’t find much wind in Fabio we are finding a good breeze of 16-20k in the trades, as Brad predicted. The sailing is exhilarating though exhausting, especially at night. But it is so much more fun to be making the kind of headway we are versus the slogging of a couple of days ago-the knot meter actually registered 0.0 kn at one point!
It is hard to believe we have 1 ½ days to go. We are seriously into our routine and though sometimes exhausting and physically taxing everyone is hanging in there like champs. One thing I have come to realize is that food indeed does matter.
I had assumed on the food front that I could eat anything for two weeks but turns out that good food and lots of it is pretty key. This is not Tim’s first rodeo and he gets this. As a result as mentioned before we burn more calories than I ever imagined and we are hungry and wolfing down our meals. And the morale boost from having well thought out and prepared menus and meals makes a huge difference getting thru some of the more challenging days. A sampling: last night we had lasagna with a vegetable medley (yes you got that right), tonight we are having my favorite, Mountain house beef stroganoff, meat balls our last night and as we speak, Brad is preparing his famous tuna melts! Can’t beat it…
As this trip winds down it is hard to completely plug into that mindset of nearing the finish, in part due to the fact that we still have lots to do in terms of finishing strong with a building wind and the competition breathing down our neck. It has been a truly amazing experience for a neophyte like me-Firefly has performed stellarly, it has been more exciting to do a long distance ocean race than I could ever really imagine and it has been hard but super fulfilling. It will take some digesting but my first pass is that it has been completely awesome.
36 hours or so to go…can’t wait!!
Bob
Day 11: Joyride Team update. 15:05 HRS
And yet another day passed. Time is flying by. We’ve been under spinnaker for a while now trying to get to Maui the quickest as we hear that’s where the cold drinks await.
It’s warm now, even at night. The occasional mist of rain to cool things down. Plenty of clouds give us a little protection from the burning sun.
Flying fish all around us, a gannet here and there, is it for wild life today. Other animals are those on this fine ship. We’ve discovered Robin drives best under Frankie goes to Hollywood. It’s a sacrifice we’re willing to make as his driving is excellent. Alex is loosing his boots, shirts and pants (don’t ask me how) and has drawn an amazing cartoon of the crew which was posted yesterday. Quill is eating through his book while off watch we’re worried what he will devour next. Erik grinds as if it is a hand blender with mojito fixings; he is ready for a cold one I can tell. And I can go on and on….
Spinnaker sailing is a little more involved than our extended jib reach. We’ve done a few sail changes the past 24 hrs peeling from A1 to A2 and vice versa, adding a stay sail when the wind picks up and taking it back down when it impedes the A sail from flying. We’re all a little tired after going through the night. The mixed sea state and constant changing wind speed/ direction require utmost attention from driver and trimmers. Making sure the boat doesn’t stall, wrap a kite around the forestay or round up and cause other issues. Even sleeping under these conditions proves hard with your body being flung from one side to the other side of the bunk – oh for pipe berths!
So we’re a little more subdued today. Don’t get me wrong, we’re still enjoying the ride. In day light though we can keep the boat on a more stable heel better anticipating the rollers and seeing the luff curl. So people are catching up on sleep.
Yesterday afternoon we played with the drone and took some videos on deck and down below. We will post a compilation once we’re in Maui. Food remains delicious/ we’ve been out of cookies and muffins but the delicious dinners keep on coming.
Pacific Cup Update
Shearwater
The Bieker designed 41-footer Blue was scheduled to start today, and it’ll be interesting to see if she can stay with the 70-footers. In Division C Alex Simanis’ Poke and Destroy has dropped to 3rd on corrected time, but is positioned almost directly on the rhumb line. The Canadian J/92 Zaff is close by. Three of their primary competitors, Sweet Okole (Farr 36), Aloha (Hobie 33) and Limitless (Express 37) have wandered pretty far north of rhumb. In Class B, the Tacoma-based J/35 Shearwater has taken over 1st in corrected time standings. The PNW based doublehanded boats Zipper and Alternate Reality are hanging in there, and there appears to be a split in the fleet as the boats further to the north are gaining ground on the southern contingent.
Here’s the latest report from Poke and Destroy:
Day three of the Pacific brings a bit more southerly breeze for Team Poke and Destroy and their competitors in Division C of the Pacific Cup.
Division C is currently crossing a low-pressure system with low southerly wind velocity that has parked itself between the fleet and their destination in Hawaii. The boats in Division C are spread out laterally about 50 miles from south to north as they try to best navigate through or around this low wind zone. Poke and Destroy has opted for the most southerly route in the Division, following the rhumb line, which is the most direct route to the finish.
As of 11:30 a.m. PDT, Sweet Okole is 1882 nautical miles from the finish line. Poke and Destroy, Aloha and Limitless are 1885 miles out, Dare Dare is a mile behind, and Zaff is bringing up the rear at 1893 miles to go.
The low-pressure system seems to be moving north, so it may follow the boats that have gone north to avoid it. Or not. By Monday, a high-pressure system with stronger northerly wind should fill in, with winds of about 15 to 20 knots.
Here is an update from skipper Alex Simanis, sent by sat phone on the morning of July 13:
Day 3 brings us a fair amount of breeze. Still southerly.
Eating has been hard, but sea state is getting better. Beef bourguignon will be for lunch.
6.7 kts on the Speedo with the #1 genoa on the fence is happy days! Breeze is building. Hoping to get into the Jib top soon.
Poke & Destroy handles the waves well. We are looking forward getting a
spinnaker up!
Cheers to all ashore. we are feeling your good vibes.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
As this year’s “weird” Vic-Maui Race heads toward a conclusion and the Pacific Cup racers get into their offshore routines en route to Hawaii, here’s a quick look at the current situations.
Vic-Maui
Bob Strong’s Morris 45 Firefly is just over 400 miles from claiming another navigator’s first-to-finish title for Brad Baker. Giving chase is John Murkowski’s J/122E Joy Ride. With 5′ less waterline but displacing 9000 lbs less, Joy Ride doesn’t seem to be making inroads on Firefly’s lead but appears to be on track for the corrected time honors. Tracker here. There may be an interesting race to the finish for the two Beneteau 40.7s, Kraken and Salient. Salient is coming from a far western position and is ahead as the crow flies, but there could be a one-design finish. Gemini’s Dream is nearly home, entering the Strait of Juan de Fuca now after retiring and heading back
Pacific Cup
It’s way too early to say much about the Pacific Cup beyond what Bruce said yesterday. The early-starting smaller and cruising boats are out front enjoying good speeds. Of yesterday’s starters, Poke and Destroy is doing quite well among the boats that chose the northerly course (chasing the legendary Sweet Okole), but the Tacoma-based Shearwater and the southern boats that seemed to fall behind earlier have come on stronger of late. Blue (even though it’s a Milwaukee boat it has a number of Northwesters listed as crew including Dalton Bergan, Jonathan McKee and Kris Bundy. And after all it is a Paul Bieker design) is starting today, about now in fact.
Here’s the report from the Pacific Cup organizers:
THURSDAY JULY 12 RACE REPORT
Thursday morning in the Pacific Cup shows much of the same among the Monday starters, while the Wednesday starters proved the forecast accurate by getting off to a slow start. As a result, most divisional and overall rankings remain somewhat the same as yesterday and are generally unaffected by the Wednesday starters, as they are all very deep on corrected time. As the Pasha Hawaii D division prepares to start today on Thursday and the BMW of San Rafael E division on Friday, it’s become more and more apparent that the Monday starters have indeed won the weather lottery – at least in these early stages – as originally predicted as early as last week.
Wednesday’s two starts saw a total of seventeen boats begin their own 2,000+ mile journeys to Hawaii under mostly sunny skies and a brisk, puffy breeze. The Weems & Plath B division saw 10 racer cruisers between 40 and 57 feet in length cross the start while the Alaska Airlines C division saw an incredibly competitive fleet of seven 30-something race boats charge the line like a buoy start with Kyle Vanderspek’s Hobie 33 Aloha winning a dramatic start. Shortly after crossing outside the Gate however, the fun factor surely began to dwindle, as did the breeze with competitors flopping around in the Gulf of the Farallones for much of the night. Most boats took a northern route to try to play the shore breeze and punch out to the synoptic winds first, while just two boats took the more direct rhumb line route. In the end, there’s not much in it as the fleet has now generally compressed along the rhumb line with a few outliers sailing a more southerly course and the Archambault 35 Mirthmaker blazing her own trail far north.
Up at the front of the fleet with the Wednesday starters, A Fond le Girafon continues to lead the race for line honors, and has committed themselves firmly to the north, the furthest boat north of rhumb line. As of this writing, A Fond le Girafon is 1,433 miles to the finish. A quartet of boats are sailing in the foiling Beneteau’s wake including overall race leader, the Cal 40 Green Buffalo. A bit further south along the rhumb line, the Hanse 505 Outremer leads the cruisers while the J/120 Jamani continues to impress and lead the Mount Gay Rum DH2 division. Motorcycle Irene continues leading Pau Maui Vodka / DH1, and continues to pull away at a steady pace, now some 26 miles ahead of second placed Loose Cannon.
All of the Monday starters are still making excellent speed, while the Wednesday starters are at least moving again, though comparatively much slower than her Monday rivals who almost immediately set out into heavy and fast reaching conditions. The course should continue to get lighter and lighter over the next few days, hampering all of the later starting divisions and eventually catching up to the Monday starters. The north-south split among Monday’s starters continues to grow with some boats sailing towards the pent house, and some towards the poor house, though no one quite knows which at this very point in time. We can only watch on with bated breath as this situation unfolds.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Doug Frazer and his crew on OxoMoxo aren’t likely to win this year’s Vic-Maui, but they have had the race’s biggest moment. Deservedly so. If you haven’t already heard, the crew of the Seattle based Swan 391 saved a sea turtle from a fishing net in mid ocean. It’s testimony both to the state of the Pacific Gyre and the stance we as sailors must make in defense of the oceans. Social media has enthusiastically picked up the story, which is great. Read on – it was a well-done big deal to save the turtle. Here’s the scoop from the Vic-Maui Race website and OxoMoxo’s navigator. -KH
OxoMoxo and the Lucky Turtle
Today, July 10, Vic-Maui International Yacht Race competitor OxoMoxo saw a sea turtle entangled in a ghost fishing net, took down the spinnaker, stopped the boat mid-ocean over 900 miles North-North-East of Hawaii, freed the turtle from the net, and removed the net from the water so it could not continue ‘fishing’.
Congratulations from Vic-Maui to skipper Doug Frazer and the crew of OxoMoxo, a Swan 39 sailboat from the Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle.
Caring for our ocean environment is a high priority for all sailors, and for our sport governing bodies including Sail Canada, US Sailing, and World Sailing. If we don’t, who will?
The longer version of the story, courtesy of the boat’s navigator Marc-Andrea Klimaschewski, with some editing:
I was down below at the laptop (hoping to find a Snickers bar which was still cold enough to eat – we were following the old rule of navigation – if the butter starts melting you are too close to the center of the High) when I heard a call from the cockpit that we had just sailed past a sea turtle which was alive and stuck in a fishing net.
Our skipper, Doug Frazer, decided very quickly that we were going to go back to free the turtle. We were beam reaching (90 degree apparent wind angle) with our spinnaker and genoa staysail in 12 knots of wind at the time, making 6.5 – 7 knots of boat speed. I stepped up the ladder in the companionway and got the lazy spinnaker sheet handed to me in preparation for a letterbox takedown. We letterboxed the kite, turned the boat around 180 degrees, and sailed upwind with the staysail and main. I got swim fins and a diving mask ready for Doug, and we pretty much executed our standard man overboard drill. Reinhard Freywald was driving, and he positioned the boat just to leeward of the turtle and stopped the boat.
Doug donned the mask and fins, and jumped in the water (he had mentioned he wanted to take an ocean swim but had missed his chance yesterday evening when we were becalmed), grabbed onto the fishing net and pulled himself back towards the boat using the Lifesling that we had deployed. When Doug made contact with the boat, he handed off the fishing net to Preston Morgan on deck who was able to pull the net off the turtle’s flipper. We didn’t want to get too close to the turtle since he looked angry and wanted to bite. Doug climbed back aboard the boat using the swim ladder. That’s the last we saw of the turtle, as he swam away from the boat. We turned back to our original course, packed and re-set the spinnaker. Once we were back sailing in the right direction, we had a round of rum and have been sailing on a reach since.
We have a video of the operation which we can share when we reach shore; the limited bandwidth of our satellite uplink does not allow us to upload it now.
The entire rescue was (in my opinion) performed in a very seamanlike manner and completely under sail. Great crew work.
As far as the back story goes: Doug’s sister Sherry’s spirit animal was the Honu, or sea turtle. Doug used to live in Hawaii for a while. When Doug’s sister passed away from cancer he got into sailing (and back into boating) and bought his first sailboat boat (a Hunter H170) which he sailed with Stefan Damstrom (who is also aboard). After the Hunter, Doug bought an international H-Boat (Sisu) which Stefan now owns and sails on Lake Washington and Lake Union. After outgrowing the H-Boat, Doug bought Oxomoxo 4 or 5 years ago, already thinking about doing Vic Maui. You know the rest of the story… here we are in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean, racing to Maui in the Vic-Maui International Yacht Race.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
The Vic-Maui Race is more than half done, but on the tracker there’s still everything to play for. As expected, Firefly and Joy Ride are out in front and it looks like an epic battle shaping up as the two near the finish. Gemini’s Dream retired and is headed back to the Northwest. We’ll start our coverage with an overview of the first half of the race using various edited versions of race committee reports and Facebook Posts. I just spoke to PJ Baker, who reports that her husband Brad (navigator onboard Firefly) was “totally stressing” about what were shaping up to be weird conditions. Yep.
David Sutcliffe has been producing a weather outlook called “The Weather Eye” that appears on the vicmaui.org home page. Also check out the tracker.
I’ll be searching high and low for info as things come to a close. I’ve been away from Internet the last two weeks (eek!) so I’ve got some catching up to do. While there was a somewhat disappointing turnout for this Vic-Maui, the sailors out there are having a wonderful adventure and a competitive race, even if it’s not racking up double digits under spinnaker.
And the early classes are off in Pacific Cup (CA-HI) with some PNW boats scheduled to start tomorrow. Bruce Hedrick is doing a brief shortly and we’ll be reporting regularly on their progress regularly. -KH
The Race So Far
VM2018 Race Report Day 1 – Canada Day
by David Sutcliffe, July 1st, 2018
And they’re off! At 10:00 am Pacific Time, the 2018 Vic-Maui fleet sailed through the start line outside Victoria Harbour, tacking into a stiff, building Westerly breeze.
In the days leading up to the start, the sun broke out just in time for the fleet send-off Party which rocked the Wharf Street docks on June 29. Transient orcas patrolled the entrance to Victoria’s Harbour on a damp June 30.
Today, July 1st – Canada Day – dawned sunny, breezy, and warm (if not exactly tropical).
Firefly led the fleet across the start line, while Anjo went walk-about before starting five minutes back and sailing up through most of the fleet. Kraken stayed on the grid and blog-sailed, or is that sail-blogged? Salient and Turnagain exchanged pleasantries from too close range, and the red bunting flew on both boats. Joy Ride pressed hard through Race Passage and on west in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. After a hearty cheer on World Cup breaking news, with Russia beating Spain, Victor Mushkatin’s team on Sérénité sailed with increased enthusiasm. Geminis Dream worked their way up the course, shaking out reefs as they went. Oxomoxo stylishly swanned their way through the waves.
Day 2 – Past Cape Flattery and Onto the Rhumb Line
by Race Committee, July 2nd, 2018
After a great run down Strait of Juan de Fuca, most of the fleet rounded Cape Flattery before the sun set and got to see a sight that most people never get to.
After rounding Cape Flattery, the fleet has starting the sailing down the rhumb line. The fleet is relatively close together about 160 miles offshore of Ocean Park, Washington on Willapa Bay.
The weather pattern is setting up for boats to ride a path between the Pacific High hovering to the northwest of its usual location, and a low pressure zone along the Washington Coast that caused the cool weather and rain before the Start. If this weather pattern holds, it may result in a short, sweet ride to Hawaii.
The match race between the two performance boats in Racing 1 is a tight one with Firefly and Joy Ride taking turns with the lead. At roll call it was Firefly using its water line advantage to eek out a 10 mile lead. But leads are fleeting and it remains to be determined which has the right weather track.
Racing 2 is also close as the boats are evenly matched, even if there is disparity between their types. Salient is sailing right on the rhumb line and has a course slightly east of the competition with a 5 mile lead on Anjo and Oxomoxo. But Kraken and Turnagain are only another few miles back. Anything can happen with this group.
A little further back are the Cruising Class boats with Serenite has moved to a significant lead over the all female crew on Geminis Dream.
The next step for all boats is finding the sweet spot to stay in the wind that exists between the two weather systems – all the while knowing that sailing directly to Hawaii is rarely the path to first place.
Tracker lessons:
Lesson 1
Turnagain’s tracker stopped providing position updates early Monday morning. In a modern news cycle that likes to focus on bad things, some people lept to conclusions that something had happened to Travis McGregor and crew. But it was a simple matter of the tracker struggling with fixing upon GPS satellites to get a position. With some simple fixes aboard and by YB Tracking, Turnagain’s position had leap forward on the map by mid-morning. So don’t panic if a boat’s position does not update for a few cycles, and know that race committee is keeping a close eye.
Lesson 2
You can look at the Leaderboard positions using VMG from Start or VMG Recent. This number is a calculation of how fast a boat is sailing directly to the finish. If pointed right at Maui, then VMG is the same as boat speed. If not pointing at Maui, you have to use your high school trigonometry. Luckily YB does it for you. VMG Recent is how fast the boat is going to Maui averaged over the last 2 hours.
Day 3 – Who Stole the Wind
by Race Committee, July 3rd, 2018
After a day and half of blast reaching in conditions best described as “not martini weather,” the fleet has hit the wall. A low pressure zone has moved over the fleet substantially altering the weather and putting the brakes on the wind and boat speed.
The relief from turbulent seas and stress on the boat is welcome – one boat reports that everyone is eating again and for a lucky few the daily constitutional has resumed. But having to fight their way through region of relative calm is not.
At roll call, the boats are generally about 270 miles west of Tillamook, Oregon. If the wind stays light maybe they can go in for cheese.
The leaders in Racing 1 have slowed from 8 kts to 5 and the five boats in Racing 2 who are 40 miles behind have put the brakes on slowing to less than 2 kts. – OUCH.
In Racing 1 Bob Strong’s Firefly still leads John Murkowski’s Joy Ride. But while the lead had built overnight, it has now shrunk to 16 miles. The five boats in Racing 2 are essentially in a dead-heat with all within a few miles of each other. In cruising class, Geminis Dream plan to hold back is proving to work as they still have the wind and are closing on Serenite.
The next trick will be who is best positioned to get the wind first as the low pressure system moves toward the east and the prospect of wind filling in behind it. Will that be Firefly and Anjo who are positioned a bit to the east, or will be Joy Ride and the other Division 2 boats positioned well to the west of the rhumb line. And for the arm-chair sailors taking bets, it would be wise to consider that multiple winning navigator Brad Baker is calling the weather shots on Firefly.
The over-arching concern is what happens next with the experienced veterans knowing that the fastest route to Maui is not usually the straight line.
Oh and did we mention Hurricane Fabio? Fabio (who makes up these names) is churning away well south of Cabo San Lucas and is forecast to dissipate well before the fleet arrives. But big low pressure systems coming from the south usually disrupt the trade winds.
Whatever happens, the navigators and weather dudes aboard the boats are going to earn their keep this year.
Day 4 – What A Difference A Day Makes
by Race Committee, July 4th, 2018
The low that boats ran into around roll call yesterday has mostly moved to the east and strong northerly winds have filled in its wake. What better way to celebrate the 4th of July than to see all boats moving quickly again. But the sustained winds of 20 kts or better is starting to take its toll on gear – Kraken reported an accidental gybe that blew their traveller apart. And taking its toll on people as even the seasoned veterans were calling last night “challenging”. At roll call today, the fleet was generally about 400 miles west of Florence, on the Oregon coast still more or less pointing straight towards Maui. And going fast.
The light airs and challenges after the low passed last night compressed the fleet together. In Racing 1, Firefly and Joy Ride split apart last night but are now approaching each other; both sailing over 9 kts. While 45 miles apart on the race course, Firefly’s lead (measured in distance to finish) has shrunk to less than 10 miles – pretty much a dead heat.
Racing 2 has also compressed with Salient, Turnagain and Kraken all more of less the same distance to Hawaii. Oxomoxo is about 35 miles back, but because of their time allowance, they are still very much in the mix. Anjo got caught being a little too far to the east, but have now moved back to the west where better winds are and making up ground quickly.
In Cruising Class, Serenite used the rules on running their engine in gear to good use during the lighter winds and are now only 25 miles behind Anjo as both move into stronger winds. The girls on Gemini’s Dream are now in the lighter winds that the others have moved out of. They report the easing came as a relief – but it looks like the relief will be short.
And the first fish was reported today on Oxomoxo with a tuna going straight from the line to the fry pan leaving a bloody mess on the deck. Kraken had company with a couple of Humpbacks for a while – that must be good luck after several gear failures. But Joy Ride had company with a Minke, a Humpback, and porpoises – perhaps even better luck.
Now the fleet is onto the next challenge – better described in today’s Weather Eye. How are the boats all going to manage crossing the “plateau” and be first into the trade winds. At least it looks like Hurricane Fabio will not be an issue as the National Hurricane Centre is reporting it is already weakening and will be a remnant low by Sunday, well ahead of the fleet.
Day 5 – The Middle Sea
by Race Committee, July 5th, 2018
Thank you to Kraken for the cool drone photo out on the Middle Sea.
Day 5 Roll Call finds the boats generally about 550 miles west of the Oregon/California border and the leaders are now about 1500 miles from Hawaii. But the winds are easing. This is definitely the Middle Sea and the most difficult part of the race to figure out. The fleet continues to chase the sweet spot between the Pacific High and low pressure trough well west of the rhumb line; with most boats 75 miles west of the direct route and Anjo and Serenite another 75 miles west of that.
The wind was generally strong overnight after the trough passed and most boats were beam reaching speeds of 8 kts or more. But the wind has now abated with most boats seeing wind from the NW about 15 kts, and speeds have slowed accordingly.
In Racing 1, the duel between Bob Strong’s Firefly and John Murkowski’s Joy Ride continues without a break. While Firefly currently has a lead of about 20 miles, at this point that is insufficient to make up the handicap difference. Both boats have top navigators aboard and Brad Baker and Bron Miller are focused on the best path to the next wind pattern – and keeping a close eye on each other through the YB tracker.
In Racing 2, the first 3 boats have spread apart a bit with Travis McGregor’s Turnagain eeking out a slim 7 mile lead, Mark Malacek’s Kraken, and Christof Marti’s Salient are very much capable of catching as the separation can produce rewards for those who get the line right and risks for those who do not. Doug Frazer on Oxomoxo is in the middle of the lines of the 3 leaders and now 50 miles behind as the lead three boats got the stronger winds sooner, but is still capable of closing the gap and using his handicap to correct ahead. That leaves Clayton Craigie’s Anjo a bit behind and way to the west hoping that is the line that will propel him closer.
In cruising class, Victor Mushkatin and his Russian crew on Serenite is way out to the west keeping company with Anjo and staying in contact with the racing boats,; having used their engine (as allowed by the rules) to pass quickly through the lighter winds yesterday. Shannon Rae and her all female crew on Gemini’s Dream are the only boat on the rhumb line and might already be captured by the weak winds associated with the low pressure “plateau”.
The roll call notes indicate that the flurry of activity overnight in the higher winds took its toll on gear. Oxomoxo and Joy Ride are both having communication issues, Kraken sailed over a blown spinnaker, and Turnagain has noticed cracks on their steering quadrant in same place as a failure in 2016 (good thing they brought a spare this time).
The forecast shows more weakening and backing (that means moving counter-clockwise for the land-lubbers), causing lots of angst on all boats. They want to get to the next stage – the downwind sleigh ride on the warm trade winds to Hawaii. But that is still a few days away with a middle zone of “scooge” (a sailing slang term related to food debris falling out of the taco) to pass through. Who will get through the Middle Sea the quickest?
Day 6 – Window of Opportunity
by Race Committee, July 6th, 2018
Day 6 Roll Call finds the fleet well offshore and now about 750 miles off Cape Mendocino and still sailing west of the direct route to Maui. As the photo shows, there is a window of opportunity to get the course to Maui right. But this morning’s Weather Eye lays out the myriad of issues facing the fleet as all boats look to pick the right weather route, with choosing the wrong window likely to be costly.
In the Line Honours race (first boat to get to Maui) Firefly leads the fleet with about 1450 miles to go, Joy Ride is 28 miles behind, followed by Turnagain (+75), Sailent (+82), Kraken (+90), Oxomoxo (+154) and Anjo (+189).
Boats are reporting sailing in lighter conditions that yesterday. That is a good thing on Firefly who reported that yesterday they went from a missing gooseneck pin to a broken carbon fibre spin pole to a blown out jib top in quick succession. But the Tuna Challenge issued yesterday by Oxomoxo was answered on Joy Ride within minutes of putting out the lure – no word on how bloody the decks got. Also reporting tuna on board are Turnagain and Kraken again. And to show they are not left out of the damage from pushing too hard, Serenite reports a crack on their oven door from overuse delivering good food.
In terms of corrected time, the 28-mile lead held by Firefly is not that much when potential boat speeds and handicaps are considered and the most recent ETA puts Joy Ride only 30 minutes behind. With more than half the race left, it is still a dead heat.
Look Out, Kraken is Coming Through
Kraken coming through
In Racing 2, the conditions allowed Kraken to launch their drone again with spectacular footage. Too bad none of their competitors are nearby to share in the media spotlight. While Turnagain is slightly closer to Maui, Turnagain, Salient and Kraken are all very close. And Oxomoxo is still hanging in based on time corrections. It all depends on who gets the wind at what time.
In cruisng class Serenite is now in full race mode and trying to catch Anjo who is only 18 miles ahead, while Gemini’s Dream is still in the heavier winds playing a bit of catch-up.
Day 7 – Warmer and Drier, with a faint whiff of Tuna and Gray Whales
by Race Committee, July 7th, 2018
Day 7 Roll Call shows the fleet still fairly tightly clustered, with one notable exception.
Geminis Dream has experienced mainsail furling equipment damage, has retired from the race, and has altered course. All onboard are reported safe and well. Race committee will stay in close communications with Geminis Dream until they reach their next port.
Firefly continues to lead the fleet South, with Joy Ride hot on her heels. The next wave of boats includes three Vic-Maui veterans, Turnagain, Salient, and Kraken, followed by OxoMoxo. A relatively short distance back, Anjo and Serenite are soaking down onto Salient’s line, and these three boats are farthest west. The leaderboard is in a state of flux.
This afternoon, the fleet looks to be sailing on starboard tack with W-NW winds in the 7-13 knot range. Barometric pressures reportedly range from 1022 – 1025, with some dubious outlier readings from boats whose barometer calibrations may have fallen off the pre-start job list. All the boats appear to be navigating a fine line to avoid light air on their left (to the east) and to stay in pressure either ahead or to their right, on the slope of the High (to the west).
Conditions onboard the boats are reported as warmer and drier, with a more-than-faint whiff of tuna on some boats and gray whales near other boats. It looks like tomorrow will be the half way mark for a number of boats; traditionally there are some wild and wacky celebrations which are sometimes akin to a sailor’s traditional equatorial crossing. With the magic of modern wireless communications, photographs, including drone images, and stories have been coming ashore from the boats and appearing on blogs and social media including the Vic-Maui Facebook group at www.facebook.com/vmiyr/
Joy Ride Team Update: July 7th – from Facebook
Well here we are, a full week in and we have another 1100 miles to go. Foulies are off most of the time with day time temp at 73F/22C. The occasional squall with bigger winds and or rain make you want to put them back on. Skies are pretty with all sorts of cloud formations, the sea is a most amazing colour of blue. Both are hard to capture in a picture, I guess you have to come out here to see it.
The sailing has been a test of our patience with wind direction too far forward and too light to get exciting. We’re making ok progress though and the conditions allow us to continue to fix what is broken. Bron is very particular about all the chores on board showing us what good seamanship is about. And the quest for more of that delicious tuna is still on. We’ve had a bite but haven’t landed more fish so far.
No other humans insight, yet every now and then we see a floating piece of plastic. A lovely reminder of how we trash our planet. We store our trash in the anchor locker in the bow; I hate to say it but its mostly plastic….
Day 8 – Half Way to Maui
by Race Committee, July 8th, 2018
Most of the fleet reached the half-way point in last 24 hours, or will shortly. But it is also time to contemplate how far the boats are from anything – nearest land is over 1000 miles away. But from now on, the nearest land will be Hawaii – how good is that?
The weather seems to have improved and with boats now at the latitude of Carmel, it is certainly warmer and most boats report that the foulies are finally starting to come off. There are some complaints about the lack of spinnaker sailing (as promised in the brochure) with boats reporting they are close reaching with Code 0 sails in 10-15 kts of wind. And they could use more wind.
In the Line Honours race (first boat to get to Maui) Firefly leads the fleet with about 1048 miles to go, Joy Ride staying a consistent 27 miles behind, followed by Salient (+98), Turnagain (+111), Kraken (+134), Anjo (+208), Oxomoxo (+217), and Serenite (+253).
In terms of corrected time, the 28-mile lead Firefly is enjoying over Joy Ride at the moment is not that much when potential boat speeds and handicaps are considered. It is still very much a dead heat and both boats know it.
In Racing 2 Salient has managed to build a small lead over Turnagain and Kraken. Perhaps Turnagain is spending too much time fishing (crew member Vern Burkhardt is an inveterate fisherman and crews have been known to tie him into his bunk to keep him away from the fishing rods) and perhaps Kraken is falling too much in love with their drone photos. Oxomoxo is still working hard and hanging in the mix based on time corrections and Anjo has made significant in-roads on the gap and opened up a gap over Serenite. But Serenite is reporting better winds than the boats ahead and may turn that around.
The trade winds and the promised spinnaker run to Hawaii are out there, but there is still a zone of changeable winds ahead that needs to be navigated. This race to Maui will be determined by who gets to those trade winds and hoist the spinnaker first.
Gemini’s Dream are making good progress towards home having rigged the trysail to replace the damaged main and have even had time for fishing themselves. They are about 400 miles from Juan de Fuca and working with race committee to find the best path home based on their reduced sail plan, available fuel, and weather forecasts.
Firefly Blog post #5 July 8 10:45
Will Strong and Brad Baker
Mileage wise at 1800 we passed the half way point for the trip yesterday July 7 (happy b-day mom). To celebrate Master chef Tim prepared a slow cooked roast and root vegetables which were excellent though our dehydrated beef stroganoff from a few days ago were a close second for me. We cracked a nice 2011 cab I brought rather than going with the fine boxed wine-our first alcohol of the trip! 8 guys shared a bottle so we didn’t nor did we have any interest in going overboard in our sleep-deprived states. Spirits were high for all of us as we contemplated what we have been thru and the warmer weather and more pleasant reaches to come.
To date this has been an amazing experience for me, in part along the lines of what I expected in part more intense in both good and “interesting” ways. We truly have a wonderful group of people, some who know each other well and others not-all great guys. The sailing experience of those with lots in fact does rub off on the rest of us and the trip has been every bit as educational as I hoped with more to come.
Being in the middle of the friggin’ pacific on a sail boat is every bit as cool as I thought it might be. As noted so far we haven’t seen a lot of sun but it has warmed up and we have peeled a layer-even only shirts when the sun peeks thru. Lots of 50 spf and we are ready for the trade winds and full on sun. The sky, different sea states, wind, sailing and incredible vastness and soul of where we are all pretty great!
And today is Rueben day!! Bob out.
Day 9 – Stuck on Starboard
by Race Committee, July 9th, 2018
The trade wind run under spinnaker to Hawaii beckons, but more changeable winds are still in the way of the Vic-Maui fleet. The boats are stuck in a form of purgatory close reaching in wind speeds are fluctuating from non-existent to 12 kts – not exactly prime conditions for an ocean race. And the boats are soooo tired of seeing the white sails hoisted on a perpetual starboard tack and are getting frustrated by the time it is taking to make southing to the trade wind latitudes. And they are getting nervous as everyone has now figured out that the boat that finds the right path to the trades will likely win the race.
And they are now clearly in the North Pacific Gyre (aka the Garbage Patch) with Joy Ride quite surprised by the amount of plastic garbage floating by. With Salient also report seeing lots of whales, you have to wonder how our leviathan friends are faring in a sea of fish nets, plastic cups and other urban detritus.
At roll call Firefly is 901 miles to the finish. Joy Ride +22, Salient +84, Turnagain +115, Kraken +1034, Anjo +190, Oxomoxo + 224, Serenite +278
In Racing 1Firefly has increased its lead over Joy Ride by 5 miles over yesterday’s report. But the last 24 hours has been a game of snakes and ladders as one boat, then the other, loses wind pressure and finds it again. This will likely be a dog-fight right to the finish.
In Racing 2, Breaking News ….. at 1515 HST Salient just raised their reaching kite – a change is as good as a rest. But at roll call Salient had also increased its lead by over Turnagain by 18 miles and by 14 miles over Kraken since yesterday. But all boats have lost distance over Anjo who is coming up from behind. But this has also been a game of snakes and ladders and as the first 4 boats have very similar time allowances, the battle for first to Hawaii is also a battle for first place, corrected time. And don’t forget Oxomoxo who the other boats owe roughly 17 hours on corrections. Serenite, in a battle to keep up with the Racing 2 boats, lost a little distance overnight and has dived east to try something different.
The crew on Gemini’s Dream, still disappointed that boat issues have stopped their adventure to Hawaii are making good progress and now about 350 miles from home motor-sailing under jib and trysail.
Joy Ride Team Update: 9th July 15:00
The latest quest is the Rubik’s cube – oh and cribbage. We’re doing some intense racing here. All fans in the boat are on (Bron installed 7 of them) to keep the air moving. With the temps going up the salty, sweaty air needs some help. All in all this is some luxury sailing we’re doing; we’re ready to take it up a notch when the wind kicks in 🙂
Weather conditions are the same as the last few days, we can’t seem to shake the edge of the high or the jib/code zero set up. We remain hopeful, make the most of the windspeed and keep watching the grib files. We all take turns driving; which keeps us focussed.
We’ve gone through our stores to see what food we have left and make sure nothing gets spoiled (so far a bit of dry pasta got wet). We also check in with our spinnakers, making sure they are still in good shape. They’ve been sitting in their bags patiently waiting to get their turn.
Life at sea has been peaceful – aside from the ruckus made by (Ballard) hillbillies. One of our night watches got a visit of some dolphins/porpoises that played around our bow for quite some time. With the phosphorescence and the dark sky it made for quite the spectacle. We noticed the phosphorescence out here is different from what we see in the coastal waters, larger but fewer “chunks”. Would be neat to know what the difference is. Where is google when you need it.
The Weather Eye, July 10 – This Too Shall Pass, and Which Way Will the Cookie Crumble?
by David Sutcliffe, July 10th, 2018
This morning the fleet is in the grips of … almost no wind.
The overall weather situation has developed in line with the outlook given in the previous The Weather Eye. The two highs have consolidated into one, the center of the combined High has drifted east, the Northerly Low has migrated North and out of the picture, and the Southerly “Low” (the Tropical Storm formerly known as Fabio) has become a remnant disturbance in the Trade Winds.
So why oh why is there almost no wind?
The fleet is now South of the center of the High, and the normal clockwise circulation around the High is still disturbed by the merging of systems. The High is also quite a bit weaker at 1028mbar, compared to 1036-1038 a few days back. That means there is less wind gradient, or pressure differential, which is what causes the wind in the first place. Each of the racing class boats is making less than four knots as of this writing.
July 10, 0800 PDT Ouch!
What’s next, and why doesn’t it matter, yet?
The big picture is that the High will strengthen again, the fleet will sail into the promised Trade Winds, and they will finally make the last multi-hundred mile dash to Mai Tais in Maui. But, I bet that nobody on the boats cares a whit about that right now. They’re probably wondering whether it is a brochure trick, a dastardly delusion, a siren song of the sea. Sailors hate calms. Passionately. Calms corrode the very soul and fray the temper. Given the choice between weathering a storm and slatting about in a calm, most would readily choose the storm!
What will save the day?
It’s possible that the remnant pressure in ex Fabio will actually be helpful in getting the boats moving quicker. If so, boats could experience some larger than usual squalls with potential quite sporty localised conditions. Building pressure and the Trade Winds will eventually make themselves felt, with favorable winds from ten through fifteen and possibly building to twenty knots. It’s all going to happen soon!
July 11, 0800 PDT ex Fabio gives a wave?
Which way will the cookie crumble?
After sailing for nine days locked in fairly close division level combat, no boat has an assured finish result. The whole thing still hangs in the balance. There is hard work involved – some boat is going to claw their way through the calm. There is skill involved – some boat is going to find the wind first. And there is luck involved – the wind is going to find some boat first. So, as it usually does, the cookie will crumble based on hard work, skill, and luck.
The Weather Eye is going out on a limb and predicting that by this evening, Tuesday evening, the lead boats will be sailing on port gybe in 10-15 knots with spinnakers, and that by tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning, most if not all boats will be sailing in this refreshing breeze. From there, it’s anyone’s race to Maui. And they will be sailing in brochure conditions!
Firefly Blog Post #6 7/10/18
Will Strong and Brad Baker
The last 24 hours have been rough, or should I say incredibly calm. We have been working our way east in search of some additional wind, but haven’t been very lucky on that front. We have been discussing the definition of becalmed and have formed a consensus that we are not, but there have been periods over the last day where the question has been posed. The monotony was broken this morning when some of the crew rinsed off in the ocean. It felt amazing! After 10 days of stink there’s nothing like tying a rope around yourself, jumping off the stern and letting the ocean wash you from head to toe. The water is crystal clear blue and there’s about 10,000 feet of it between you and the bottom. But enough of that, this is a race we are in some seriously light conditions. Until now! Finally, as I sit here writing, the wind has begun to build and we are sailing along at 6kts in 7kts of breeze. It feels like we’re on a rocket ship compared to the last day. Is this the freshening breeze we’ve been waiting for or just a tease? Time will tell, but Brad’s antennae are up and it looks like our swimming days are over. Maui lies just over 800 miles in front of us and we are now beginning to discuss the first round of cocktails in Lahaina. But before that we have some sailing to do!
A note from one of the less experienced sailors on the boat: There are many parts about this trip which were more or less expected, but many more which were not. While I expected some of the mental challenges such as the requirement of patience, importance of crew morale, and dealing with some of the monotony, I was unprepared for the physicality of the endeavor. The lack of sleep, recurring sail changes, and grinding out of tough late night watches has given me even more respect for the crew onboard who does this stuff on the regular. It’s hard, but satisfying and I wouldn’t trade this experience, the good and the bad, for anything.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
I guess the good news is that the entire Vic-Maui Fleet has committed to the Great Circle Route and have (wisely) decided to follow Brad Baker on Firefly. The bad news is that as we pointed out last week, the high has built to 1039MB, we said 1040, and it is centered well west at 161degrees W, we said 160, and instead of a 28MB spread from the center of the high to the Islands it’s only 24MB. That is still plenty. The problem will be that between the Pacific High and the coast are persistent troughs of low-pressure off the coast and a very weak ridge of high pressure along the coast. This has created some very breezy conditions north of the Bay Area and will impact the starts of Pacific Cup but only for the first couple of days of the race. After that, it appears there will be a nice band of wind to get south and get set up for the final approach to the Islands. Navigators will really earn their keep this year as from about 140W to 155W there will be unsettled areas of light air.
Surface Analysis July 6
Surface Forecast July 7
Surface Forecast July 8
Surface Forecast July 10
The Vic-Maui Racers have a more complex problem. They’ve all committed to sailing the shortest possible route which will take them into a large area of light air by the 10th of July. This caused by the fact that the jet stream is simply not around this summer. By the 8th to the 10th of July it make dip as far south as the Aleutians, otherwise, there is nothing to really push the these weather systems around.
For the Pacific NW our mild summer will continue with an unusually strong southerly breeze off the coast today which will diminish as this trough pushes through. Onshore flow will build behind this trough creating strong westerlies in the central Straits. Wind over the rest of the area will remain light and variable. You should still check the VHF weather readings and log the barometer before you head out on any cruise. Just be the prudent mariner.
Enjoy the weekend!
Ed. Note: I’m coming back from a terrestrial vacation in WI. Lots of news to catch up on and put out there on sailish.com. For example, once again Hanne Weaver is the US Singlehanded Women’s Champ! And Firefly and Joy Ride are going at it hard. -KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This will be a fast start for the Vic-Maui group and will have the effect of quickly sorting out who’s ready and who’s not. There will be strong onshore flow with 25-30 knots of westerly coming down the Straits tomorrow. You could see 12-18 in the starting area building to 15-20+ at Race Rocks. Combined with a five knot ebb in Race Passage, seas will be quite lumpy taking a toll on boats and crews. The wind will ease slightly after Clallam Bay only to build again from the NW once you clear Cape Flattery. The course out will be just like sailing a Swiftsure. With the big ebb and plenty of time to make it through the Race, it will pay to sail the short course. After the Race head to the US side and beat your way out the Straits. At Cape Flattery you’ll want to hold a course that will get you offshore and away from area of light air that develops along the coast after sunset.
Surface Analysis 6/30
Surface Forecast 7/1
Surface Forecast 7/2
Surface Forecast 7/4
As you can see from the surface charts, the Pacific High is building nicely but note the low pushing across from the west. This will provide a challenge to navigators who most certainly will be trying to get south as fast as possible but then trying to figure out how to avoid beating while still getting to the west and into a strong area of tail winds that should hold all the way to the Islands as this high will continue build and stabilize. How much? This high could be a 1040MB monster centering at 40N and 160W. This would provide a 28MB gradient difference from the center of the High to the Islands. Plenty of breeze and plenty of squall action. This will keep crews plenty busy keeping spinnakers, halyards, sheets and guys intact.
Good luck, stay safe and enjoy what will certainly be a great adventure.
(Ed. Note I’m off in the Midwest right now and I’ve got limited leeway to get things posted. I’ll be back in about a week and will catch up with both Vic-Maui and Pacific Cup. -KH)
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Brad Baker, one of the most (if not the most) successful navigators in Vic-Maui history, has a wrapup piece he called Reflections, but which I’m going to call Vic-Maui Bradulations, on this year’s race in the swiftsureyahts.com blog. He’s very generous and genuine with his praise of the fleet. It’s clear he missed being out there and taking advantage of what turned out to be near perfect record breaking conditions.
I thank Brad for allowing me to use his analyses on sailish.com. He thinks the new record can be broken. You get the sense he’s far from done with this race.
REFLECTIONS
Brad Baker Vic-Maui Analysis #5 – July 26, 2016
With the Vic-Maui nearly a done deal, I thought I’d reflect a bit on the 2016 race. I don’t know about you other armchair sailors, but I have had a tremendous amount of fun watching this year’s race. It’s had a little bit of everything. It’s had some drama with Crossfire’s early retirement from the race. I sincerely hope that after licking their wounds, and taking a few lessons from the experience, that they will be back in 2018. I suppose I was a harbinger of doom when in my third installment I said there would likely be boats with steering issues. I think it was the day after writing that the J-109, Mountain, retired with rudder bearing issues. Later, Forty had their steering quadrant fail. There were lots of reports of broken halyards and blown up spinnakers. Most recently the specter of tropical storm Darby made things interesting. What is foremost in my mind, though, was the weather pattern itself. It turned out to be a near perfect scenario for an elapsed time record breaking pace. And there were four boats in the race capable of breaking the record — a perfect storm.
Looking back to the few days prior to the first start, the forecast didn’t look all that promising for a quick race. The GFS weather model showed a broad ridge of weak high pressure extending nearly to the US west coast. Had this transpired the fleet would have had to make the choice between hugging the coast, sailing extra distance south, and faced with a nearly dead down sail the rest of the way to Hawaii, verses going shorter distance and trying to bust through the light air ridge of higher pressure. Either way would have made for a long race. The good news, if you can call it that, is weather models become much less reliable at more than four days out. Thankfully this was the case, because by the time the sleds started the forecast had flipped to a very different pattern. The new forecast was for building high pressure to move west, well offshore, and a bit north of where you would normally expect. This was ideal, as it would produce a broad wind field with average winds averaging just over 20 knots for thousands of miles! And from there, it would all be down wind for the fleet. The forecast confidence was high as nearly all the weather models from various agencies were showing basically the same thing. This forecast is what eventually came to pass. The beauty in this pattern was that with the high pressure located so far to the NW competitors could cut the corner early and sail a shorter distance and with the exceptional 1040mb high, there would be plenty of pressure gradient, i.e. wind, to spare. The stage was set for a record breaking race. Navigators still needed to get it right, but just as much of a premium was now on raw boatspeed, and holding it together for the long haul. With the above normal winds there was also a premium on managing breakages and wear.
Here is the early forecasts. This screen shot is taken from the GFS model that came out on July 7th. It is Valid for 0500 PDT on July 18. It shows a ridge of weak high pressure extending all the way to the US west coast, with a broad swath of light wind blocking the Vic-Maui fleet. Luckily this forecast was to change.
Here is the forecast from from the day the sleds started on July 12th. It to is valid for the same time and day 0500 July 18th. This shows a much more robust more symmetric high pressure system with plenty of wind across the course.
Here is the actual conditions on July 18th 0500. Very close to the forecast issued on the 12th.
The well prepared boats shined. A huge and hearty congratulations goes out to Gavin, Jason and the crew on Valkyrie. Well done! You own that record! I’m sure they had a few trials and tribulations along the way, but it was hard to see where they occurred from watching the tracker. From a navigators point of view, Valkyrie sailed a very clean/smart course and were obviously very well prepared. I’m envious of their accomplishment and hope to one day be aboard a Vic-Maui record setting boat.
Next is Kinetic, again hearty congratulations are in order. I’ve known David Sutcliffe for a number of years and he is obviously no stranger to this race. Some might say he practically is this race! Kinetic too sailed a smart, never gave up and showed they had the pace. Congratulations on the first overall corrected time victory! It’s well deserved.
There are a few others I’d like to call out. Longboard, holy crap! This is a 35-foot boat, you know it had to get hairy for those guys at times being that small and going that fast. You could tell they pushed hard. Well done.
String Theory, nice job John and crew. Watching Class 2’s String Theory on the tracker you could just see that they had their s**t together! Obviously she was well prepared and kept down time to a minimum. I remember as their competitors, Equus, managed to get farther to the right, with better leverage and a hotter angle, String Theory showed that not only did they have the pace, but they had the preparation to hold on to the first place slot. Well done.
Raindrop showed us all how it’s done, completely dominating class three. Had they not had the worst starting conditions, with light air for two days, we might be congratulating them now on a first overall.
I know of two ocean race first time newbies that put in good performances. Equus, in Class 2, a brand new out of the box Jeanneau 50, looked impressive and I’m sure gave String Theory a reasonable scare. I bet Equus has learned from the experience and if Dean and crew come back next time, look out Class 2!
My weathered Swiftsure cap also goes off to Joe and crew aboard Canard in Class 3. Nice job pulling out a 2nd place and pushing hard at the finish.
Finally, I want to congratulate the fleet as a whole. Finishing the Vic-Maui Race is quite an accomplishment. As Bill Huseby, sailing on Raindrop, told me in an email, “This is not brochure sailing”. The conditions were very challenging. The storms in the tropical eastern pacific pushed competing waive trains across the course. The seas were reported as very confused. Joe Gaffney, skipper of Canard, at one point called it a “Rolly polly s**t show”. This was no picnic, especially for the first timers. Well done everyone.
Then there was tropical storm Darby! Watching the weather early on I, and anyone else who paying attention, could see the series of tropical depressions spinning up every 4 or 5 days just off Mexican waters. Storm after storm seemed to be aimed right at the Hawaiian Islands. I wrote (and I guess in the end it was true) that these storms wouldn’t likely be a safety concern. Darby nearly made a liar out of me, and easily could have been a safety issue if an earlier predicted track had come to pass. For a couple of days there my focus had shifted from what is the best route to get there fastest, to what is the safest route. Thankfully, in the end, Darby clipped the big island, which took out quite a bit of steam, then passed south of Maui a much less powerful storm for having interacted with the big island. Likely the biggest casualty from the effects of Darby was Expresso, who in the light air wake of the storm spent five hours sitting in the Pailolo channel within sight of the finish and likely cost them 2nd place.
This was the forecast track of tropical storm Darby. This track would have mowed through the fleet with 50 knot winds. Luckily the forecast track changed
Here is the Darby forecast track issued on Saturday the 23rd. This is very close to what the actual track ended up being. It takes Darby over the big island and south of Maui. Much less of a threat to the fleet.
I’ll conclude with this. It may stand for some time, but the elapsed time record is still certainly beatable. I’m not trying to diminish what Valkyrie, Kinetic and Westerlyhave achieved. They sailed very well and I think it would be extremely hard for another TP 52 to break this record. The conditions were very good this time around. The fact remains the record is now held by a 52-foot boat. It’s likely going to take a big turbo sled, maybe something with a canting keel (or perhaps Crossfire?). But the fact remains, the record is still very beatable. Bring it on!
Brad Baker has been navigator on seven of his nine Vic-Maui races, with two first to finish finishes, two first overall finishes and 4 more first in class finishes.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
The post-Darby vic-Maui fleet is streaming into Lahaina now, with Starblazer and Ion finished, and Salient and Miles following shortly. That will leave Canard, Turnagain, Amiskwi, Red Sheilla and Forty on the race course, and all are making good time toward the finish. We’ll check in with our friend Joe on Canard to see how things are going there, like if they’re ready for a sleep in a real, motionless bed etc.
The Vic Maui web site has an interesting article on the prevalence of French-built boats in the race in general and the 3-boat Beneteau 40.7 race-within-a-race. Here’s the link. It is an interesting side note to this race. Any insights from you readers?
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
It is looking good for the Vic-Maui fleet with regards to Darby. Rain Drop got in well before the Darby, followed by Kraken. The Dufour 45 Alegria is nearly in, as can be seen in the tracker screen shot.
The other boats have all taken the advice of the RC and weather experts and work east and south to avoid Darby. They’re all going to sail in on the heals of the storm.
The boats already in have all made provisions by either hunkering down at Lahaina, moving to Ali Wai Basin in Honolulu, or just being ready to hoist anchor and find safe refuge if the storm hits hard.
In the meantime Darby is now into its assault on the Big Island.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Firefly was first to finish in this year’s Vic-Maui Race. I don’t have an official time yet, but the tracker says it all. Indications are Joy Ride will finish a couple hours later and correct to first overall. Congratulations to Bob Strong and his crew, and to the navigator and my friend Brad Baker, who I gotta say seems to own this race.
Brad Baker has been navigator on seven of his nine Vic-Maui races, with two first to finish finishes, two first overall finishes and 4 more first in class finishes.
