Author: Bruce Hedrick

As you undoubtedly noticed, we had the remains of a weak frontal system move over the area today and it will continue to move inland overnight. As it does, it will continue to weaken and behind the front, a weak ridge of high pressure will start to build along the coastal waters producing an onshore flow. Since the frontal system is weak and the high building along the coast is weak, the timing of these events is not well-defined.

The satellite picture and the Sea/Tac Doppler Radar give us a nice view of the current situation. 

The surface charts for today, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday show a consistent progression of these systems. The general rule is that the first day the ridge builds will be the best day for breeze and that matches what we are seeing with the pressure gradient being tighter tomorrow and into tomorrow night and then starting to ease Saturday.

The good news for West Vancouver YC’s Southern Straits Race is that most of the racing will take place on the west side of the Straits where the northwesterly will fill first, be the strongest, and last the longest. The lighter air will be in the starting area while the onshore flow continues to build in the Straits. You should probably start logging the barometric pressure, wind speed, and wind direction at Sentry Shoal, Sisters(34 knots of SE at 1400hrs), Halibut Bank and Sand Heads to get a feel for how fast things are changing.

The starting area should see 5-10 knots of westerly. This will hold until about midday when you should expect the wind to build to 10-15 knots of west-northwesterly as you beat across the Straits. Think about hoisting your first headsail in the port groove so you can do a quicker tack change as the wind builds.

It’s mid to late afternoon where the models diverge as far as wind velocity goes. One model has the wind building to 15-25 knots while the GFS model has it holding at 10-15 knots until midnight when it will build to 15-20 with higher gusts closer to Vancouver Island. This should hold until about midnight when the gradient should ease and the wind begins to drop. As the gradient does ease, expect lighter air the closer you get to the finish as the onshore flow will begin to conflict with the downslope drainage northeasterly coming down the mountains.  

For the Long Course, it looks like the TP 52’s will make it around in about 19 hours finishing around 0500 hours. On the Medium Course, the Beneteau 40.7’s should be finishing about the same time. My apologies to the Short Course boats, I just don’t have any of your polars.

Good luck, be safe, and have a great race. 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

This is one of our favorite events all year and it is eerily similar to last year with lots of doom and gloom forecasts. The question, as always, is when will these fronts actually impact the race area and that is a very good question.

Today’s surface analysis shows a complex, flattened, series of low-pressure systems ranging from 974MB to 977MB. This front is what we will experience today. The front for tomorrow is attached to a 992MB low directly south of the aforementioned system. The 992MB system is very fast moving and will not weaken until it begins to interact with our coastal buffer zone sometime tomorrow morning. This will put the front over the race area in the late morning to mid-afternoon.

The current Doppler at Langley Hill clearly shows a more intense frontal system headed our way this afternoon and matches up nicely with the satellite picture. We have generally light southeasterly flow over the area now and this will increase as the system approaches starting late this afternoon and into the evening. The barometer is clearly dropping and that is also reflected with the readings from Destruction Island on the coast, where there is 30+knots of wind and the barometer is still dropping so the front is not there yet.

The first start is at 1100 hours and there should be about 12-18 knots of pre-frontal southeasterly. The strongest pre-frontal breeze will be in the eastern part of Straits and up into the San Juan Islands With the passage of the front now looking like to be about midday to early afternoon, expect a brief drop in the breeze as it backs to the south-southwest. As the breeze settles into a more southwesterly direction, this is when we should see the strongest breeze of the day. Then as the front moves further away from the Salish Sea the breeze over the center Sound will slowly drop as the gradient eases. This is a reverse start so the battle on the upwind leg will be to keep your air clear. Tides will not be much of a factor.

Tidal Currents at West Point

0712       .4 knots                                Ebb

1018       Slack

1524       1.06 knots            Flood

1812       Slack

Remember that since we will have had some rain, the ebb in the morning will probably last longer, delaying slack water by as much as an hour. 

So you will want to get a clear air start and then hold starboard tack to the breakwater and then work your way up under West Point as there will still be some wind-generated surface current against you. At West Point head across the Sound on port tack. Go all the way to the Bainbridge Island shore to again get out of what current there is. There should be a slight knock as you get to Bainbridge so sail well into it before you tack to starboard and work your way up to the Rock.

It’s also possible that if the front is delayed after interacting with the coast that we may have a very east-southeasterly breeze that will allow you to make the mark on one long port tack.

You’ll probably do a port pole set however as you get past all the rocks headed north get set up to gybe and get aimed at West Point. At West Point, the wind may shift slightly to the SSE and become puffy as the wind starts to come out of the Ship Canal. Get set-up to do your drop early and start negotiating with the boats around you for buoy room at Meadow Point.  As you sail past the finish line be sure to sight it and figure out which end is favored. Perfect sail handling at this mark will pay big dividends. You’ll need to tack out from the beach fairly quickly so make sure that is all part of your rounding plan. You should tack back to starboard once you can make the beach between the bathhouse and the north end of the breakwater. There will be a knock as you get in close to the beach. Tack when you can lay the favored end. If it’s the buoy end put a little in the bank because the current from the Ship Canal will set you out.

I also had a great question this week once it looked like it might be breezy and we could be in for some heavy weather. The question was “How do you define heavy weather?” The answer is that you define what heavy weather is and that is the point where you and your crew are no longer comfortable sailing in the existing conditions and there exists the possibility of hurting someone or doing damage to the vessel. So for tomorrow, we will all be in life jackets and safety harnesses and if it’s cranking, we may just stay at the dock. Nothing wrong with that!

Be safe and have a great time.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Finally, our favorite series gets going this weekend and as usual, it looks like this could be a good one. The folks that have been sailing all winter ( South Sound Series) or got out last weekend for some practice will benefit as there should be some very nice breeze. For a while this week it looked like that high pressure (1045MB) that was centered over the mid BC interior might slight further to the south. Now it looks like it will stay to the north yet still dump some very cold air down the Fraser River Valley. There will also be some fairly strong breeze (25-35 knots of northeasterly) in northern end of the San Juans late Saturday and into early Sunday morning.

While there won’t be much breeze when you get to Shilshole Saturday morning, eventually the northeasterly out of the Fraser will follow the path of least resistance and wind its down Admiralty Inlet and into Puget Sound. It will start out as a light northerly but become northwesterly and build as the day goes on. How much and when? That is always the question, but right now you could see 20+ for the beat from Blakely Rock back to the finish. The models are not in agreement about when the northwesterly will come down the Sound but it will come.

Tidal Current at West Point

0806    Slack

1100    .53 knts Max Flood

1324    Slack

1512    .26 knts Max Ebb

1742    Slack

So not a lot of tide, the key will be when will the northerly back to the NW. It will also depend upon where they set the start line which direction you go at the start. If the line is well south of Meadow Point and you can take a quick hitch to get in under Meadow Point you can get a slight lift on starboard as well as some tide relief before you hold a long starboard tack up the Sound.

If the line is north of Meadow Point and the wind is to left of due north, just make sure you have a nice lane to sail in and head west. As you get to the west, watch the cog and sog, watch for a knock and tack when you are almost laying the top mark. In the reverse start it’s liable to be a bit crowded at the first mark which will make a port approach just a little dicey. Besides, a starboard approach will be greatly appreciated by the foredeck crew as it will give them more time to get everything set up for a nice bear away set.     

On the run to Blakely Rock, the breeze will tend to build on the west side of the Sound first so you’ll probably hold starboard until the breeze starts to lighten as you approach Bainbridge. Gybe out until you can gybe back to starboard for your final approach to the west end of Blakely Rock. On the run also track the true wind speed so you can give the foredeck crew plenty of warning about a different headsail for the all-important last beat to the finish. Regardless, you should have them set the headsail in the starboard groove so you can do a tack change if you need to as you approach Magnolia, Four Mile Rock. Remember, it can get shallow very quickly as you approach that imaginary line between Four Mile Rock and West Point. From the aerials earlier this week it appears there may be some shallower than normal water south of the line from the lighthouse to the West Point Buoy with shoal water extending further north of that line and slightly further out from the Point. Be cautious.

After West Point, if the current is neutral or ebbing hold starboard tack until you can just lay the area north of the south end of the Shilshole Breakwater. You get a slight knock as you get close, just keep track of where the finish line is and don’t over stand the finish.

Please leave your AIS on so I can watch the race. Have a great race, good luck and be safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)