I look out the window trying
to look across the Sound and Credence Clearwater comes to mind: “Who’ll stop
the rain?” Well, it certainly isn’t going to stop today or tomorrow but maybe
by Sunday as this slow-moving cold front moves across the Salish Sea. By late
Saturday and into Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure will build over the area
which will give us an offshore flow that will bring cooler and dryer weather to
the area for the big holiday.
Dec 24 500MB
Dec. 22 500MB
20 Dec. 500MB
Dec. 24 Surface Forecast
Dec. 23 Surface Forecast
Dec. 22 Surface Forecast
Dec. 21st Surface Forecast
Dec. 20 Surface Forecast
Kinda says it all…..
As we have noticed this fall, the jet stream will channel yet another series of storms into California and maybe as far south as Mexico. The surface forecast chart for the 23rd of December shows this very clearly. The good news is that we will enjoy fairly benign conditions for probably the rest of the year. Then it will be time to start planning for the Big Seattle Boat Show which starts on the 24th of January and runs through the 1st of February.
Enjoy the big holiday and every once and a while pop down to the marina to check on the boat. Have a good one and go Huskies!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Not much going on in the way of sailboat racing this weekend which is probably a good thing as once again, there won’t be much wind in the Salish Sea. We’ve had our wind and rain for the week as a weak ridge of high pressure will build behind the very active front that came through on Wednesday. True, this brought some much-needed snow to the mountains and some rain to the lowlands however we are still over 7” behind for the year and if you’re going up to the mountains this weekend, take the rock skies. This ridge will shift slowly to the east bringing an offshore flow once it builds east of the Cascades. This will allow perfect conditions for the Christmas fleet as we move into the holiday and keep approaching systems at bay.
Dec. 13 500MB
Dec. 13 Surface Analysis
Dec. 14 Surface Forecast
Dec. 15 500MB
Dec. 15 Surface Forecast
Dec. 17 500MB
Dec. 17 Surface Forecast
The surface analysis chart for today shows an interesting mash-up of systems with weak highs, weak lows, and stalled occluded fronts. One feature of note is that weak low-pressure system off the southern Oregon coast at 1019MB which is really high for a winter low-pressure system. As you go through the surface forecast charts you’ll notice the pressure gradient becomes weak to nonexistent over the next couple of days. Hence my favorite forecast from the NWS: Variable winds becoming light.
The long-range forecast does show another weak system coming in
late Tuesday and into Wednesday. This is because the zonal flow of the jet
stream will finally start to bend to the south off the West Coast and allow
another series of systems to come ashore with yet another strong system coming
into California.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Today’s satellite photo is, as always, very interesting since there are some interesting features on display especially when you combine it with today’s surface analysis chart.
Probably the first feature that captures your eye on that chart is that large low-pressure system (985MB) off the coast of California with it’s attached frontal system. Then if you look at the sat pic you can see some very impressive cloud tops off the northern coast of California and southern coast of Oregon. This marks the front as well as an area of vertical instability which even has lightning in it, a bit strange for this time of year.
Dec. 6 500MB
Dec. 6 Surface Analysis
Dec. 8 500 MB
Dec. 8 Surface Forecast
Dec. 9 Surface Forecast
Dec 10 500 MB
Dec. 10 Surface Forecast
As this front comes onshore and that low moves slowly towards the coast it will weaken to a 997MB system dragging yet another wet cold front ashore in Cal. This system will move across the US this coming week and when it meets up with some VERY cold area coming out of the Arctic in the Midwest there will be more significant snowfall and we’ll all be glad we live in the Pacific NW enjoying mild temps and relatively dry conditions. While today may be beautiful just look at today’s Doppler Radar from the Langley station, it’s definitely wet out there and it’s coming our way.
December 6 Satellite
For the Winter Vashon race you would think with all this activity there should be the possibility of a good old-fashioned, gear busting, sailmaker benefit race. Probably not going to happen this year as we are just out of the reach of all this activity. True, for the coast, the Strait of JdF, and the San Juan Islands, it will be breezy tonight with weak low pressure over the area for tomorrow but that will be about it for the weekend. There will be rain and some snow in the mountains but probably not enough to make up for our current almost seven-inch rainfall deficit.
The really bad news is
that since the system will be moving on Saturday there will be a bit of a
post-frontal southwesterly over the south Sound which will be enough to get you
started however as the system moves east what breeze you have will begin to
evaporate. This will lead to light and variable conditions by about mid-day
with some large, very glassy areas on the racecourse. Luckily, the TYC Race
Committee has an excellent record of knowing when to shorten the course at the
top mark, making all the Seattle boats pretty happy about only having a short
distance to power in the rain to get back to the dock.
The other charts of
interest today are the 500MB charts which show a strong zonal flow over the
mid-Pacific, 100+ knots. Earlier this week southeast of Sakhalin Island and the
Kamchatka Peninsula this zonal flow was measured at 240-knots! Now if you were
flying from the Far East to the Pacific NW that would be a great tailwind.
Have a great weekend,
stay dry and have plenty of warm beverages aboard to ward off hypothermia!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It might be a little cold outside,
but it is certainly beautiful out on the water. Just enough wind to sail and
not enough to make powerboating uncomfortable, plus the usual anchorages are
for the most part fairly empty.
Earlier this week we had another
bombogenesis event (pressure in the center of the low drops 24MB in 24 hours)
that brought a record low pressure reading of 970MB to Crescent City and
windspeeds near 95-knots in the peaks of the southern part of the Coast Range.
This low with its attached cold front also brought much needed rain and snow to
southern California.
Nov 29 500MB
Nov. 29 Surface Analysis
Dec. 1 500MB
Dec. 1 Surface Forecast
Dec. 2 Surface Forecast
Dec. 3 500MB
Dec. 3 Surface Forecast
The charts show a continued
presence of high-pressure on the east side of the Cascades which will keep the
cold air in place with an offshore flow coming off that high. Another
low-pressure system will come into northern California over the next couple of
days and with the jet stream and an upper-level low persisting over northern
California there is a very slight possibility that we might get some light snow
but it certainly last very long.
Next week will be an interesting
week as starting on Tuesday we will have a series of low pressure systems take
aim at the Salish Sea. Our Coastal buffer zone will continue to weaken these
systems but it could be the start of the return to a wetter winter. We’ll see.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s been a fairly nice week for November unless you’re a
skier….which brings up the real problem and that is a real lack of
precipitation around the NW. November is usually the wettest month of the year however
as of today we are 3” behind for the month and almost 5” behind for the year
and this isn’t going to change much as we approach the end of November.
The surface analysis for today shows the remains of a cold front off the coast and the remnants of a cutoff low-pressure system off the coast of southern California. We also have that group of persistent high-pressure systems just east of the Cascades as well as that 1029 MB high off of San Francisco. This combination has been very effective in weakening and breaking up lows and frontal systems as they approach the coast.
Nov 22 500MB
Nov 22 Surface Forecast
Nov 23 Surface Forecast
Nov 24 Surface Forecast
Nov 25 Surface Forecast
Nov 26 500MB
Nov 26 Surface Forecast
What is really interesting is note the discrepancy between the surface analysis chart for today and the 24 hour surface forecast chart. On the surface analysis chart note the four low-pressure systems and the solid red arrows coming off the low-pressure centers. Those indicate how far the low-pressure centers are expected to move over the next 24 hours. All of which are moving in a generally northerly to northeasterly direction, consistent with the general flow of the jet stream. Next, take a look at the 24 hour surface forecast chart. Where did that 1006MB low off of Haida Gwai come from? Maybe Krekeler should have checked the chart from Folmer. Anyway, I think that the 1006MB low was the 989MB low that simply followed the more east-northeasterly path of the jet stream.
Once again our system of highs will degrade and weaken the fronts as this system approaches the coast giving us little if any precipitation. There will still be enough of a pressure gradient to give us some breezy pre-frontal southeasterly conditions Saturday and into Sunday followed by a post-frontal SW later on Sunday. It never matters what time of the year it is, always check conditions before you leave the dock.
Things will get even more interesting this coming week as that offshore high will strengthen to a very summer-like 1040MB and a very interesting low-pressure system will come ashore in southern Oregon and northern California. Next check the 500MB chart for the 26th of November as the jet stream will develop quite a roller coaster-like bump over the north-central Pacific. This will also create an upper-level cutoff low-pressure system to the north-northwest of Hawaii which should always be watched especially if you’re heading to Kauai as we had two in the last two years that dumped 42” of rain in 24 hours on the north shore and severely flooded Hanalei.
Of concern to boaters in the Pacific Northwest will be that
this bump in the jet stream will have the effect of bringing in our lowest
temperatures of the year out of central BC. This will mean that most areas will
drop well below freezing and that means maybe putting some heat on the boat and
opening all the locker doors that access thru-hulls to make sure none of those
freeze. Nothing like the perfect excuse to escape the Thanksgiving madness and
head down to the boat to make sure everything is in order.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
There is plenty of sailing going on the weekend with CYC
Turkey Bowl, the Squaxin Island Race, Snowbird #1 and the GHYC LeMans Race.
Unfortunately, the south Sound Races will be light while center Sound Races
will enjoy near-perfect conditions all-day Saturday. Saturday night a stronger
system will bring very breezy conditions to the north Sound, Admiralty Inlet,
the east end of the Straits of JdF, and the San Juan Islands. This system will
weaken as it passes through on Sunday. By Sunday morning the Turkey Bowlers
will have a nice 15-25 knots of post-frontal southwesterly breeze.
Unfortunately, as this system leaves the area, the breeze will ease
substantially by mid-afternoon Sunday.
15 Nov 500MB
15 Nov Surface Forecast
16 Nov Surface Forecast
17 Nov Surface Forecast
18 Nov Surface Forecast
19 Nov 500MB
19 Nov Surface Forecast
For the center Sound folks on Saturday, this will mean a
southerly breeze of 10-12 knots with the usual shift to the SE as you get
closer to the Seattle side of the Sound. As you get more to the middle of the
Sound the breeze will tend to stay out of the south with puffs to the SW. As
the day goes on and the barometer starts to drop this will mean that the breeze
is going to shift back to the SE probably by early afternoon and build to 12-15
knots. As the afternoon goes on the breeze will increase slightly to a steady
15 with puffs into the low 20’s.
Today’s satellite image.
Sunday will start with 15-20 knots of SW with the
possibility of higher gusts. By early afternoon the breeze will begin to ease
and stay out of the SW. As the puffs begin to swing more around to the W, the
breeze will begin to drop and by mid to late afternoon, it will become very
light and shifty.
Overall, the weather pattern is shifting and while we may be
almost 4” behind in rainfall for this month, the gap should narrow with a
steady diet of frontal systems being directed by the jet stream into the
Pacific NW. The forecast for the 19th shows an impressive set of
low-pressure systems in the northern part of the mid-Pacific with two strong
cold fronts that extend almost as far south as Hawaii. They will weaken as they
approach the coast however there are more systems after this one and they will
bring more rain and maybe some snow for the mountains.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
It’s Round the County so it really doesn’t matter what the weather will be doing, it will still be a great time. We have had an incredibly dry November so far which, for what is traditionally the wettest month of the year, just a little strange. Plus it’s going to be almost 60-degrees F today. The surface charts give us a pretty clear picture of what is going on. We still have a weak ridge of high-pressure guarding the Pacific Northwest and that combined with the jet stream is directing our traditional fall soakers well north of us and into SE Alaska. This is not going to change until the middle of next week.
Today’s surface analysis shows the remnants of a weak front moving across southern BC today and that has brought a southerly flow over the area which will persist into tomorrow. Sunday will have a northerly flow develop and by late Sunday this will become an offshore flow as high-pressure rebuilds over the area. The 96-hour surface forecast chart the strongest low-pressure system(956MB) we’ve seen this fall lurking in the mid-Pacific. We’ll see if this will be strong enough to break up our ridge of high-pressure.
Nov 8 500MB
Nov 8 Surface Analysis
Nov 9 Surface Forecast
Nov 10 500MB
Nov 10 Surface Forecast
Nov 11 Surface Forecast
Nov 12 Surface Forecast
For RTC on Saturday, this
will mean wind (8-12 knots from the SE) for the start however as the gradient
eases the wind will drop. This problem is compounded by the geography of Orcas
Island and Mt Constitution which as the breeze eases will create a wind shadow
extending from Orcas across Boundary Pass. The boats with TALL rigs should
prevail. The other problem will be that after about 1030 the tide will be
flooding in Boundary Pass and while it’s not a big flood, it will still be
difficult to fight.
Currents in Rosario Strait.
Saturday
0706 Max Ebb 1.08
knts
1000 Slack
1300 Max Flood 1.23
knts
1548 Slack
1948 Max Ebb 2.41
knts
Sunday
0742 Max Ebb 1.11
knts
1042 Slack
1336 Max Flood 1.14
knts
1606 Slack
2012 Max Ebb 2.77
knts
Current in Haro Strait
Sunday
0654 Max Ebb .83
knts
0930 Slack
1306 Max Flood 1.4
knts
1618 Slack
For Sunday as
a weak northerly flow comes in, the problem will be reversed as the wind shadow
will go south from Mt. Constitution and over the finish area.
November 8
1200 Hr. Nov 9
MM5 1200 Nov 9
On Saturday I
have Crossfire around the course in
about 5.75 hours finishing between 1430 and 1500 hours.
Have a great
time and leave your AIS on so I can at least armchair quarterback from the
computer.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Yesterday was lovely, this morning was beautiful, right now (Ed. note: noon), not so much. Don’t worry, this is a fast-moving front and pressure is already rising and as you can see from the current Sat Pic, it’s already clearing in the Straits. No surprise, when the front went past Race Rocks the post-frontal westerly filled in at 40-knots at the Race.
Satellite Image
This morning’s surface analysis shows the front as well as a moderate (1034 MB) high-pressure system offshore. The surface forecast chart for tomorrow gets even more interesting as this high builds to 1041 MB which is a higher pressure than we had all summer. This is both good news and bad as this high will act as a pretty good block for the next batch of fronts headed our way. The 48-hour surface forecast chart for 27 Oct shows a very impressive low-pressure system (978 MB) in the mid-Pacific with an attached cold-front that extends from the Bering Sea south to Hawaii. This chart also shows that while this high is weakening over the Pacific it is still strong enough to drive this low and attached frontal system north and into Alaska. This will keep our weather very nice well into next week. This will be reinforced by the jet stream which will take a big bend around the high and then bend back to south and into the Pacific Northwest bringing cooler air with it, see the 27 Oct 500MB chart.
Oct 25 500MB
October 25 Surface Analysis
October 26 Surface Forecast
October 27 500MB
October 27 Surface Forecast
October 28 Surface Forecast
Oct 29 Surface Forecast
So what’s the bad news?
This high is setting up right over that blob of warm water off of our coast and
this high will slow the rate at which the blob is cooling. We have definitely
made some progress compared to the Oct 3rd SST Analysis, so we’ll
see how this goes.
SST Anomaly
What does this mean for
the weekend? We are done with the rain however the wind will continue to blow
from the NNE for now in the central Sound and it will continue at 20-25 knots
and slowly back to the NNW. The breeze will back off over the evening and by
tomorrow morning it will be around 10-15 from the N. The breeze will slowly
build into the 15-20 knot range by midday and into the afternoon while backing
to the NNW. By mid-afternoon it could be up into the 20-25 knot range.
Sunday will follow the
traditional pattern of easing northerlies following the first day that ridge
rebuilds after frontal passage. There will still be northerlies but more in the
8-12 knot range in the morning with another slow build into the 10-18 knot
range in the afternoon. The center Sound will have the most wind of all the
Salish Sea area on Sunday. The rest of the Sea will be sunny and lighter
breeze.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Plenty of sailing going on around the Salish Sea this weekend and for the most part, there will be wind but it’s really a tale of two or more cities. The Harken / Pro-Tech Pumpkin Regatta at the West Vancouver Yacht Club will have over 230 young participants from all over the Pacific Northwest and over 100 volunteers to make this huge event happen and it should be a great one with the weather providing some great sailing. STYC will have its’ Fall Regatta with almost 50 boats signed up, unfortunately, the weather won’t be quite so cooperative.
This week we knew we’d have the first of a series of frontal
systems come onshore and while we had 40+ knots from the SE at Smith Island,
the rest of the area benefitted from having the coastal buffer zone weaken
these fronts as they came onshore. The graph for West Point shows frontal
passage occurred around 1700 hours yesterday which coincided with a peak gust
at West Point of around 35 knots. The
baro is starting slowly back up and that will keep the post-frontal S-SW
breezes over our area for the rest of the day. The central and eastern Strait
of JdF and the San Juans could have Small Craft Advisories Saturday and Sunday
for winds of 25-30 knots.
The Sea/Tac Radar and the color Sat Pic for today show a
very clear correlation between cloud cover and active precipitation headed
towards both Seattle and Vancouver. Precip will continue over the area for the
entire weekend which is fine as we are still about 2 inches behind for the year
in rainfall totals.
October 18 500MB
October 18 Surface Analysis
October 19 Surface Forecast
October 20 500MB
October 20 Surface Forecast
October 22 Surface Forecast
Today’s Surface Analysis Chart shows the remnants of
yesterday’s front on the east side of the Cascades, as well as a weakened front
moving towards the area with a number of notations of gales or developing gales
in the North Pacific. As that 992MB low-pressure system continues to weaken and
move to the east this will allow onshore flow to build over the offshore
waters, fill down both the Strait of Georgia and the Strait of JdF, and around
the bottom side of the Olympic Mountains. This will bring West to NW wind to
the Strait of Georgia for Saturday giving the Pumpkin Bowlers 10-12 knots to
start with and then building to 12-18 in the afternoon.
This is the bad news for the STYC Fall regatta as the flow
down the Strait of JdF and the flow coming around the bottom of the Olympics
have to meet somewhere and that somewhere will be right over central Puget
Sound, hence light conditions for the area off of Shilshole.
The Surface Forecast Chart for Sunday shows another frontal
system approaching the Pacific Northwest.
This will bring a pre-frontal E-SE breeze to English Bay and the Pumpkin
Bowlers. There is disagreement in the models about when the transition from
W-NW to E-SE will occur however right now it looks like by 0800 Sunday there
should be 8-12 knots for the SE which may build slightly to near 15 by late
morning. As it gets closer to mid-afternoon the breeze will begin to ease and
back to the East before becoming light and variable by late afternoon and into
the early evening.
All in all, besides being damp, it’s like a great weekend for sailing just always check the conditions before you head out.
Ed. Note: It’s also the first day of the Seattle Laser Fleet Frostbite series for Lasers and Aeros. Sign up at seattlelaserfleet.org. Show up for a noon start off Shilshole.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This will be the first major windstorm for this winter and
it looks like we could have 25-40 knots over the central Sound. So if you
haven’t re-tied those mooring lines and added an extra fender or two, now would
be a good time to do so!
October 15 Surface Analysis
October 16 Surface Forecast
You can see from the Surface Analysis from this morning and
the Surface Forecast Chart for tomorrow that there will be a significant
tightening of the pressure gradient as this front comes onshore. While we have
gale warnings for the coast, the coastal buffer zone will weaken the front and
leave us with a Small Craft Advisory for the inland waters.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
