Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 8, 9, 10, and 11 Nov. Round the County

It’s Round the County so it really doesn’t matter what the weather will be doing, it will still be a great time. We have had an incredibly dry November so far which, for what is traditionally the wettest month of the year, just a little strange. Plus it’s going to be almost 60-degrees F today. The surface charts give us a pretty clear picture of what is going on. We still have a weak ridge of high-pressure guarding the Pacific Northwest and that combined with the jet stream is directing our traditional fall soakers well north of us and into SE Alaska. This is not going to change until the middle of next week.

Today’s surface analysis shows the remnants of a weak front moving across southern BC today and that has brought a southerly flow over the area which will persist into tomorrow. Sunday will have a northerly flow develop and by late Sunday this will become an offshore flow as high-pressure rebuilds over the area. The 96-hour surface forecast chart the strongest low-pressure system(956MB) we’ve seen this fall lurking in the mid-Pacific. We’ll see if this will be strong enough to break up our ridge of high-pressure. 

For RTC on Saturday, this will mean wind (8-12 knots from the SE) for the start however as the gradient eases the wind will drop. This problem is compounded by the geography of Orcas Island and Mt Constitution which as the breeze eases will create a wind shadow extending from Orcas across Boundary Pass. The boats with TALL rigs should prevail. The other problem will be that after about 1030 the tide will be flooding in Boundary Pass and while it’s not a big flood, it will still be difficult to fight.

Currents in Rosario Strait. 

Saturday

0706       Max Ebb                1.08 knts

1000       Slack

1300       Max Flood             1.23 knts

1548       Slack      

1948       Max Ebb                2.41 knts

Sunday

0742       Max Ebb                1.11 knts

1042       Slack

1336       Max Flood             1.14 knts

1606       Slack

2012       Max Ebb                2.77 knts

Current in Haro Strait

Sunday

0654    Max Ebb          .83 knts

0930    Slack

1306    Max Flood       1.4 knts

1618    Slack   

For Sunday as a weak northerly flow comes in, the problem will be reversed as the wind shadow will go south from Mt. Constitution and over the finish area. 

On Saturday I have Crossfire around the course in about 5.75 hours finishing between 1430 and 1500 hours.

Have a great time and leave your AIS on so I can at least armchair quarterback from the computer.

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