Brad Baker Vic-Maui Analysis #4 – July 18, 2016
The fleet has pretty much made their beds and now they have to sleep in them. In my last post I talked a bit about what was then, the upcoming decision on when to jibe. I coined the term “goldilocks jibe”, not to early, not to late but just right. I also wrongly said that it wasn’t rocket science and that the wind shift would dictate when the jibe would happen. I should have remembered how much time I’ve spent fretting over when to make the move. I always joke that my bald head isn’t due to male pattern baldness but rather all the head scratching I’ve had to do fretting over decisions like this. As it turns out the decision on when to make the jibe from starboard jibe to port was/is a very important one that will have a huge impact on the odds of boats having a good finish. Another factor is just plain luck. The boats further ahead have found themselves very much in a rich get richer situation.
I’ll try to break this down a little. As the fleet passed through the SW quadrant of the pacific high they experienced a starboard jibe lift. This shift is beneficial and gives competitors the opportunity to jibe to port and more or less point their bow directly at Hawaii. As they sail further south typically the wind turns more easterly making it easier to lay the finish line. What has made things difficult for some of the fleet is the motion of the high pressure system itself. The high has continued to move to the west over the last three days. For those boats that were further behind or decided to jibe early there have been consequences. Instead of pointing at Hawaii they have found themselves pointing to the east of it, causing them to sail extra distance. Another issue is many are sailing in an area where the isobars are curving the most. For a high pressure system, where the isobars curve, there is generally lighter wind then in an area where the isobars stay more parallel. It’s a double whammy, those that jibed early or were further behind are sailing in less wind in a less favorable shift. On top of this as the high moves further west it is going to be difficult to ever sail in the easterly shift that the leaders and boats further east are enjoying.
Screen shot of the pacific high showing a pronounced curve in the isobars of the SE quadrant. I’ve drawn a circle around the area. Those sailing in this area will find themselves in lighter wind and a non-favorable heading
The rich get richer. The boats circled by green are in better shift and more wind. You can see those circled in red are sailing a more southerly heading.
So who got it right? I hate to say it since I know they will likely read this and I really don’t want to make their heads swell any larger than they already are, but I give the nod to Raindrop in class three for nailing the goldilocks jibe spot. Kudos to Joby and Bill. Raindrop did have the advantage of a good lead, but they stayed with it and jibed a bit later than many. Another boat that did well is Equus in class 2 positioning themselves a bit further west than others in their class.
This screen shot shows the fleet just after many boats jibed to port. The two I’ve circled are Raindrop and Equus. they made the “goldilocks jibe”.
In class one Valkyrie and Kinetic did an ok job, but I think would have benefited from waiting just a little longer before jibing. Notice Westerly much further to the right. Westerly might have over shot a bit, but they will have the luxury of sailing on a hot angle all the way there, which should play to their waterline strength.
Ok, what does all this mean. Raindrop looks good and as long as they hold the breakages to a minimum will win the class 2. it looks like a three boat race between Equus, String Theory and Kraken. This may be one of the more interesting matches to watch as they surf their way to Maui. Equus has a strong position further to the right and will be able to sail a hotter angle then String Theory. String Theory has been working hard to sail low and get down to a similar line. Kraken actually has a reasonable shot as well on a very similar line to Equus. It will come down to who has the wheels to keep the boat speed maxed out, and of course who can hold it together and minimize down time. It’s far from over in this class. Finally for class one, Valkyrie has wrestled the corrected time lead from Kinetic. This wasn’t the case last night as it looked as though Kinetic was actually overtaking Valkyrie and had cut Valkyrie’s lead down to mere about 10 miles. That all changed late last night and early this morning. It appears that Kinetic had some issues. When I checked their position this morning the tracker had them going only 2 knots and they had sailed quite a bit higher and slower than Valkyrie. A look at the tracker now shows that they seem to have it sorted out and are making good speed and heading. As it stands right now Valkyrie has a comfortable elapsed time lead. In fact, they are still are on pace to finish ahead of the elapsed time record. The question is can Kinetic show the same speed they did yesterday, and perhaps catch back up. Westerly also bears watching. As I mentioned before they will have a faster/hotter line than Valkyrie and Kinetic. Today they have consistently shown faster speeds than the TP 52’s. Right now Westerly is 106 miles back from Valkyrie. With only 2 days left of sailing, it may not be enough track to pass Valkyrie, but they may very well beat Kinetic boat for boat and it is possible they could save their time. It ain’t over yet folks.
Much more at Swiftsure Yachts’ blog.
Brad Baker has been navigator on seven of his nine Vic-Maui races, with two first to finish finishes, two first overall finishes and 4 more first in class finishes.
Brad is a principal at Swiftsure Yachts.
